2012 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:2012 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2006 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:2006
Next Election:2018 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Image1:File:Jon Tester, official 110th Congress photo.jpg
Nominee1:Jon Tester
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:236,123
Percentage1:48.58%
Nominee2:Denny Rehberg
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:218,051
Percentage2:44.86%
Image3:File:3x4.svg
Nominee3:Dan Cox
Party3:Libertarian Party (United States)
Popular Vote3:31,892
Percentage3:6.56%
Map Size:301px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jon Tester
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Jon Tester
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.9% of the vote.[1] [2]

Democratic primary

Candidate

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrew

Results

The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.

General election

Candidates

Debates

Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain.[7] The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.[8]

Campaign

Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.

As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.[9]

On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate.[3] Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010,[10] but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines would later be elected in the other U.S. Senate seat two years later.[5]

As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.[9]

The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers.[11] Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust.[12] In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation.[13] The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.[14]

In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[15]

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Jon Tester (D)$11,699,935$10,377,126$1,334,858$0
Denny Rehberg (R)$8,420,655$7,249,285$1,171,369$0
Source: Federal Election Commission[16] [17]

Top contributors

Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
League of Conservation Voters$82,332Alliance Resource Partners$36,500
Visa Inc.$47,400Exxon Mobil$29,500
JPMorgan Chase & Co$47,000Las Vegas Sands$25,000
Thornton & Naumes$46,600Mewbourne Oil Co$25,000
WPP Group$38,350Murray Energy$24,068
Blackstone Group$34,000Devon Energy$20,400
Girardi & Keese$30,000Arch Coal$19,000
Pederson Group$29,500Yellowstone Bank$17,500
Comcast Corp$28,500Marathon Oil$13,750
First Interstate BancSystem$28,400Koch Industries$13,500

Top industries

[20]

Jon TesterContributionDenny RehbergContribution
Lawyers/Law firms$1,084,445Oil & Gas$327,969
Retired$534,716Financial Institutions$277,474
Lobbyists$506,931Retired$268,693
Financial Institutions$438,763Leadership PACs$267,000
Leadership PACs$345,750Mining$169,318
Commercial Banks$299,818Lobbyists$150,050
Real Estate$280,945Real Estate$121,080
Insurance$211,009Misc Finance$94,655
Misc Finance$188,750Lawyers/Law Firms$89,338
Health Professionals$181,483Republican/Conservative$76,855

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[21] November 1, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[23] November 2, 2012
align=left Real Clear Politics[24] November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Jon
Tester (D)		Denny
Rehberg (R)		OtherUndecided
align=left Public Policy Polling[25] November 10–13, 20101,176±2.9%46%48%—6%
align=left Mason-Dixon[26] March 14–16, 2011625±4.0%46%45%—9%
align=left Public Policy Polling[27] June 16–19, 2011819±3.4%45%47%—8%
align=left Public Policy Polling[28] November 28–30, 20111,625±2.4%45%47%4%5%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[29] February 22, 2012500±4.5%44%47%6%3%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[30] April 2, 2012500±4.5%44%47%—9%
align=left Public Policy Polling[31] April 26–29, 2012934±3.2%48%43%9%—
align=left Rasmussen Reports[32] May 2, 2012450±5.0%43%53%2%2%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[33] June 18, 2012450±5.0%47%49%2%2%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[34] August 20, 2012500±4.5%43%47%5%5%
align=left Public Policy Polling[35] September 10–11, 2012656±3.8%45%43%8%3%
align=left Mason-Dixon[36] September 17–19, 2012625±4.0%45%48%1%6%
align=left MSU[37] October 9, 2012477±4.6%40%43%5%12%
align=left Public Policy Polling[38] October 8–10, 2012737±3.6%45%43%8%4%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[39] October 14, 2012500±4.5%48%48%3%2%
align=left Public Policy Polling/LCV[40] October 15–16, 2012806±3.5%46%44%7%3%
align=left Pharos Research[41] October 19–21, 2012828±3.4%48%46%—5%
align=left Pharos Research[42] October 26–28, 2012799±3.5%48%47%—5%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[43] October 29, 2012500±4.5%49%48%2%2%
align=left Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau[44] October 29–31, 20126254.0%45%49%1%5%
align=left Public Policy Polling[45] November 2–3, 20128363.4%48%46%4%2%

Results

Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.

By county

CountyTesterVotesRehbergVotesCoxVotesTotal
31.84% 1,532 59.77% 2,876 8.4% 404 4,812
67.39% 3,141 28.08% 1,309 4.53% 211 4,661
63.88% 1,834 31.24% 897 4.88% 140 2,871
33.01% 995 57.47% 1,732 9.52% 287 3,014
45.9% 2,691 47.55% 2,788 6.55% 384 5,863
15.74% 125 77.58% 616 6.68% 53 794
52.47% 18,246 41.96% 14,589 5.57% 1,936 34,771
48.19% 1,374 46.33% 1,321 5.47% 156 2,851
43.21% 2,283 49.31% 2,661 8.38% 452 5,396
32.6% 327 60.52% 607 6.88% 69 1,003
35.46% 1,571 56.52% 2,504 8.01% 355 4,430
69.55% 3,122 23.37% 1,049 7.08% 318 4,489
29.78% 422 59.28% 840 10.94% 155 1,407
33.94% 2,063 58.12% 3,533 7.95% 483 6,709
37.17% 16,223 55.38% 24,171 7.45% 3,252 43,646
51.63% 24,781 42.47% 20,386 5.9% 2,834 48,001
14.31% 101 79.04% 558 6.66% 47 708
69.6% 3,118 24.84% 1,113 5.56% 249 4,480
36.25% 174 57.5% 275 6.25% 30 480
38.53% 657 52.49% 895 8.97% 153 1,705
58.93% 4,060 34.27% 2,361 6.81% 469 6,890
40.92% 2,685 51.65% 3,389 7.42% 487 6,561
35.94% 441 57.13% 701 6.93% 85 1,227
49.25% 6,561 42.92% 5,717 7.83% 1,043 13,321
54.34% 18,189 40.17% 13,446 5.49% 1,839 33,474
40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.09% 61 1,002
34.62% 3,091 56.90% 5,080 8.48% 757 8,928
33.2% 1,516 58.91% 2,690 7.88% 360 4,566
32.9% 332 61.05% 616 6.05% 61 1,009
34.93% 342 55.57% 544 9.5% 93 979
42.66% 866 47.44% 963 9.9% 201 2,030
63.49% 36,488 31.64% 18,184 4.87% 2,799 57,471
28.58% 684 61.14% 1,463 10.28% 246 2,393
48.22% 4,260 43.94% 3,882 7.84% 693 8,835
24.41% 73 67.56% 202 8.03% 24 299
27.2% 607 65.64% 1,465 7.17% 160 2,232
43.53% 1,187 49.69% 1,355 6.78% 185 2,727
23.32% 239 70.15% 719 6.54% 67 1,025
41.75% 1,167 51.2% 1,431 7.05% 197 2,795
33.33% 236 59.32% 420 7.34% 52 708
38.65% 8,602 53.87% 11,990 7.48% 1,666 22,258
30.18% 1,406 62.95% 2,933 6.87% 320 4,659
61.41% 2,269 33.42% 1,235 5.17% 191 3,695
48.0% 1,704 44.45% 1,578 7.55% 268 3,550
34.31% 2,044 54.04% 3,219 11.65% 694 5,957
42.23% 812 51.74% 995 6.03% 116 1,923
69.29% 11,673 24.62% 4,148 6.09% 1,026 16,847
36.66% 1,732 56.84% 2,684 6.52% 308 4,724
31.19% 661 62.67% 1,328 6.13% 130 2,119
40.48% 1,341 53.12% 1,760 6.4% 212 3,313
34.01% 721 57.03% 1,209 8.96% 190 2,120
33.98% 157 54.55% 252 11.47% 53 462
44.98% 1,749 46.91% 1,824 8.1% 315 3,888
36.79% 365 56.35% 559 6.85% 68 992
27.39% 149 62.32% 339 10.29% 56 544
47.15% 32,565 46.44% 32,077 6.42% 4,432 69,074

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

Source:[46] [47]

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Speculation on 2012 elections in high gear. June 19, 2010. November 21, 2010. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
  2. News: Montana. The New York Times . November 2020. Cohen. Patricia.
  3. Web site: It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester. February 5, 2011. February 5, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
  4. Web site: Political unknown drops into U.S. Senate race. January 19, 2012. January 20, 2012. Billings Gazette. Mike. Dennison.
  5. Web site: Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester. February 3, 2011. February 3, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
  6. Web site: Libertarian joins U.S. Senate race. March 8, 2012. March 9, 2012. Billings Gazette.
  7. Web site: Senate battle hits Big Sky country. Politico. Raju. Manu. October 5, 2012.
  8. Web site: Debates to feature matchups in House, Senate and governor's races. Billings Gazette. September 26, 2012.
  9. Web site: Rehberg raises $900K in 3 months, trails Tester in U.S. Senate money . Mike Dennison . July 15, 2011 . missoulian.com . July 25, 2011.
  10. Web site: Steve Daines Announces 2012 U.S. Senate Run Against Jon Tester. November 13, 2010. November 21, 2010. KTVM-TV. Jessica. Debbas. https://web.archive.org/web/20101116180148/http://www.nbcmontana.com/news/25785036/detail.html. November 16, 2010. dead. mdy-all.
  11. Web site: GOP attack ad shows five-fingered Tester shaking Obama's hand. September 30, 2010. November 2, 2011. Missoulian TV. Matt. Gouras.
  12. News: McAuliff . Michael . Ad By Crossroads, Karl Rove's Outfit, Yanked Off Air For Being False (UPDATE) . Huffington Post. November 11, 2011 . November 12, 2011.
  13. News: Drajem . Mark. EPA Says U.S. Rule on Farm Dust Won't Be Tightened After Review . Bloomberg L.P.. October 17, 2011. November 12, 2011.
  14. Web site: U.S. Senate Roll Call Votes 112th Congress – 1st Session, Vote No. 157 . United States Senate. October 6, 2011. November 12, 2011.
  15. News: Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests. Politico.com. Haberman. Maggie. October 2, 2012. October 2, 2012.
  16. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Tester Campaign Finances
  17. https://web.archive.org/web/20110421070013/http://fec.gov/disclosurehs/HSCandDetail.do Rehberg Campaign Finances
  18. OpenSecrets.org web site states "The organizations themselves did not donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families."
  19. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1 OpenSecrets
  20. http://www.opensecrets.org/races/indus.php?cycle=2012&id=MTS1|Campaign finances by industry
  21. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
  22. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  23. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  24. Web site: 2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  25. https://web.archive.org/web/20120731181901/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_1116ND.pdf Public Policy Polling
  26. http://helenair.com/news/article_0f7d084c-5376-11e0-8b5c-001cc4c03286.html Mason-Dixon
  27. https://web.archive.org/web/20120619121731/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0621.pdf Public Policy Polling
  28. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_12011205.pdf Public Policy Polling
  29. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_47_tester_d_44 Rasmussen Reports
  30. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_47_tester_d_442 Rasmussen Reports
  31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling
  32. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_53_tester_d_43 Rasmussen Reports
  33. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_49_tester_d_47 Rasmussen Reports
  34. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_rehberg_r_47_tester_d_43 Rasmussen Reports
  35. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling
  36. http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/09/24/poll-close-contest-in-senate-battle-in-montana/ Mason-Dixon
  37. http://billingsgazette.com/news/local/rehberg-tester-in-close-race-msub-poll-says/article_44f68d0e-66b3-58ab-a7fb-e3ff5a0905ec.html MSU
  38. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling
  39. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/montana/montana_senate_tester_d_48_rehberg_r_482 Rasmussen Reports
  40. http://images.politico.com/global/2012/10/121017_montanapollingmemo.pdf Public Policy Polling/LCV
  41. https://www.scribd.com/doc/111056288/Montana-Pharos-Research-Oct-2012 Pharos Research
  42. http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research
  43. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/montana/election_2012_montana_senate Rasmussen Reports
  44. http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/rehberg-holds-small-lead-over-tester-in-high-profile-senate/article_9fe929ec-8f85-5535-97cb-866f00be8bf5.html Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau
  45. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling
  46. Web site: 2012 Statewide General Election Canvass. Montana Secretary of State. February 4, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160705235441/http://sos.mt.gov/elections/2012/2012_General_Canvass.pdf. July 5, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
  47. Web site: 2012 General Election Results By County. Montana Secretary of State. February 10, 2018.

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