2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2022 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Next Year:2022
Election Date:November 8, 2016
Image1:File:Rand Paul, official portrait, 112th Congress alternate (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Rand Paul
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,090,177
Percentage1:57.27%
Nominee2:Jim Gray
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:813,246
Percentage2:42.73%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Rand Paul
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Rand Paul
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held November 8, 2016 to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kentucky, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held May 17.

Incumbent Republican Senator Rand Paul filed for re-election in December 2015, and Mayor Jim Gray of Lexington filed to run against Paul for the Senate in late January 2016. In the general election, Paul defeated Gray by 14.5 points.

Background

If Paul had become the Republican presidential (or vice-presidential) nominee, state law would have prohibited him from simultaneously running for re-election.[1] In March 2014, the Republican-controlled Kentucky Senate passed a bill that would allow Paul to run for both offices, but the Democratic-controlled Kentucky House of Representatives declined to take it up.[2] [3] [4] Paul spent his own campaign money in the 2014 legislative elections, helping Republican candidates for the State House in the hopes of flipping the chamber, thus allowing the legislature to pass the bill (Democratic governor Steve Beshear's veto could have been overridden with a simple majority).[5] [6] However, the Democrats retained their 54–46 majority in the State House.[7] [8] [9]

Paul was running for both president and re-election, and considered several options to get around the law preventing him from appearing twice on the ballot, but he dropped his presidential bid to focus on re-election to the Senate on February 3, 2016.[10] His supporters said the law does not apply to federal offices and suggested changing the May Kentucky presidential primaries to March caucuses would allow Paul to run for re-election and continue to seek the presidential nomination.[11] However, this option would have only worked until the presidential primaries were over, as he would still have had to appear on the ballot twice in November if he had won the Republican presidential nomination. Other options that were open to him included running for both offices and leaving it to Democratic Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes to remove him from the ballot; attempting to replace Grimes in the 2015 elections with a Republican secretary of state who would not enforce the law; filing a lawsuit against the law; and running for president in every state except for Kentucky, where he could have run for re-election and hoped to win the presidency without Kentucky's electoral college votes.[12]

In a letter to Kentucky Republicans in February 2015, Paul asked them to allow him the same option afforded to Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan, who ran for re-election at the same time as vice president on Mitt Romney's ticket.[13] David M. Drucker of The Washington Examiner reported in the same month that Kentucky Republican leaders were concerned that Paul's actions could mean that if he wins the Republican presidential nomination and is renominated for the Senate, he could either be disqualified from the Senate ballot and the state party blocked from replacing him, which would hand the seat to the Democrats, or he could be disqualified from the presidential ballot, which would see the Democratic presidential nominee pick up Kentucky's 8 electoral college votes.[14]

In August 2015, the central committee of the Kentucky Republican Party voted to hold a caucus in 2016, allowing Paul to simultaneously run for re-nomination for his seat and the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.[15] State law would still bar Paul from appearing twice on the ballot in the general election.[15] However, on February 3, 2016, Rand Paul dropped out of the 2016 presidential campaign, allowing him to focus on his reelection bid.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[44] November 2, 2016
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[45] November 7, 2016
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[46] November 3, 2016
align=left Daily Kos[47] November 8, 2016
align=left Real Clear Politics[48] November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rand
Paul (R)		Jim
Gray (D)		Undecided
SurveyMonkey[49] November 1–7, 20161,315± 4.6% align=center50%46%4%
SurveyMonkey[50] October 31–November 6, 20161,155± 4.6% align=center51%46%3%
SurveyMonkey[51] October 28–November 3, 2016843± 4.6% align=center52%45%3%
SurveyMonkey[52] October 27–November 2, 2016635± 4.6% align=center50%46%4%
SurveyMonkey[53] October 26–November 1, 2016499± 4.6% align=center51%44%5%
SurveyMonkey[54] October 25–31, 2016424± 4.6% align=center52%46%2%
Western Kentucky University[55] October 25–30, 2016602± 4.0% align=center55%39%6%
RunSwitch Public Relations (R)[56] October 26–28, 2016811± 3.4% align=center52%42%6%
Cofounder Pulse Poll[57] October 26–28, 20161,016± 3.8% align=center35%28% align=center38%
Cofounder Pulse Poll[58] October 12–15, 2016816± 3.4% align=center33%27% align=center40%
Cofounder Pulse Poll[59] September 14–16, 2016834± 3.2% align=center33%25% align=center42%
Cofounder Pulse Poll[60] August 2–4, 2016508± 3.6% align=center59%41%0%
Harper Polling[61] July 31–August 1, 2016500± 4.4% align=center50%38%13%
Cofounder Pulse Poll[62] March 30–April 1, 2016758± 3.0% align=center28%26% align=center47%

with Thomas Massie

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		class=small Margin of
error		Thomas
Massie (R)		Steve
Beshear (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[63] June 18–21, 20151,108± 2.9%38% align=center43%—19%
Public Policy Polling[64] August 7–10, 2014991± 3.1%30% align=center45%—24%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		class=small Margin of
error		Thomas
Massie (R)		Crit
Luallen (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 18–21, 20151,108± 2.9% align=center37%35%—28%
with Rand Paul
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		class=small Margin of
error		Rand
Paul (R)		Steve
Beshear (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 18–21, 20151,108± 2.9% align=center49%39%—12%
Public Policy PollingAugust 7–10, 2014991± 3.1% align=center50%41%—9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		class=small Margin of
error		Rand
Paul (R)		Crit
Luallen (D)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy PollingJune 18–21, 20151,108± 2.9% align=center51%37%—12%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Paul won 4 of 6 congressional districts, with the remaining 2 going to Gray, including one that elected a Republican.[65]

DistrictPaulGrayRepresentative
66%34%James Comer
61%39%Brett Guthrie
40%60%John Yarmuth
66%34%Thomas Massie
66%34%Hal Rogers
48%52%Andy Barr

External links

Official campaign websites (archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Shafer . Jack . Paul, Rubio face 2016 bind . Politico . March 14, 2013 . December 5, 2016.
  2. News: Berman . Matt . Marco Rubio Won't Run for Senate in 2016 if He Runs for President . April 2, 2014 . National Journal . April 2, 2014.
  3. News: Kentucky Senate passes bill to let Rand Paul run for re-election and president in 2016 . Youngman . Sam . March 18, 2014 . www.kentucky.com . Kentucky.com . April 18, 2014.
  4. News: Dead for now: Kentucky bill allowing twin Paul 2016 runs . Silverleib . Alan . April 17, 2014 . www.cnn.com . CNN . April 17, 2014 . April 18, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140418233718/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2014/04/17/dead-for-now-kentucky-bill-allowing-twin-paul-2016-runs/ . dead .
  5. News: The Obscure Kentucky Contests That Could Alter Rand Paul's 2016 Plans . National Journal . August 14, 2014 . October 27, 2014.
  6. News: Will Rand Paul Have to Risk His Senate Seat for the Presidency? . Reason.com . September 2, 2014 . October 27, 2014.
  7. News: Democrats maintain control of Kentucky House of Representatives . Lexington Herald-Leader . November 4, 2014 . November 6, 2014.
  8. News: Democrats hold Kentucky House, a minor blow to Rand Paul's presidential hopes . The Washington Post . November 6, 2014 . November 4, 2014.
  9. News: Kentucky looks at primary change that would help Rand Paul . Politico . November 5, 2014 . November 6, 2014.
  10. News: King . John . Rand Paul dropping out of presidential race - CNNPolitics.com . Cnn.com . February 3, 2016 . December 5, 2016.
  11. News: Paul close to announcing reelection bid . The Hill . November 18, 2014 . November 19, 2014.
  12. News: Inside Rand Paul's Plan to Run for Senate and President at the Same Time . The National Journal . December 2, 2014 . December 3, 2014.
  13. News: Rand Paul Is Looking to April to Announce Plan to Run for President, Associates Say . The New York Times . February 17, 2015 . April 18, 2015.
  14. News: Rand Paul's hazardous Kentucky plan . The Washington Examiner . February 20, 2015 . April 18, 2015.
  15. News: Meyer . Theodoric . Kentucky GOP greenlights joint Senate, presidential run for Rand Paul . August 23, 2015 . Politico . August 22, 2015.
  16. Web site: Former Moreheadian running for U.S. Senate . The Morehead News . DeHart . Larry . December 28, 2015 . January 21, 2016 . November 16, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181116085252/https://www.themoreheadnews.com/news/former-moreheadian-running-for-u-s-senate/article_7fe51b9c-adad-11e5-bd7e-973811c1d90b.html . dead .
  17. News: Candidate Filings with the Office of the Secretary of State . December 4, 2015 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20151122002230/http://apps.sos.ky.gov/elections/candidatefilings/statewide/default.aspx?id=3 . November 22, 2015 .
  18. Web site: Rand Paul files for reelection race five years away . Politico . April 19, 2011 . Jennifer Epstein.
  19. Web site: Challengers Line Up for Rand Paul's Senate Seat . . Autry . Lisa . January 18, 2016 . January 21, 2016.
  20. News: Previewing Kentucky's 2016 U.S. Senate Race . November 7, 2014 . WDRB . April 18, 2014 . November 7, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141107052826/http://www.wdrb.com/story/25276018/dyche-previewing-kentuckys . dead .
  21. News: Paul . Rand . Rand Paul to Seek Re-Election to the U.S. Senate . December 2, 2012 . Rand Paul for Senate . July 17, 2013.
  22. News: Livingston . Abby . Grimes Is Key to Kentucky Democrats' Posterity Farm Team . August 14, 2013 . Roll Call . July 17, 2013.
  23. News: Ditto . Jessica . Governor-Elect Bevin Names Hal Heiner Education and Workforce Development Cabinet Secretary . December 4, 2015 . December 4, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151208062349/https://www.bevintransition.com/news/governor-elect-bevin-names-hal-heiner-education-and-workforce-development-cabinet-secretary . December 8, 2015 . dead .
  24. News: Jaffe . Alexandra . Rep. Massie says no to Kentucky Senate bid . October 27, 2014 . The Hill . March 21, 2013.
  25. News: Lexington Mayor Jim Gray running against U.S. Sen. Rand Paul . . Youngman . Sam . January 26, 2016 . January 26, 2016.
  26. Web site: Kender runs for Senate . . Caudill . TJ . January 12, 2016 . January 21, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160128003637/http://hazard-herald.com/news/1848/kender-runs-for-senate . January 28, 2016 . dead .
  27. Web site: Ron Leach planning drive for U.S. Senate . The News-Enterprise . Sheroan . Ben . January 14, 2016 . January 21, 2016 . January 27, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160127144219/http://www.thenewsenterprise.com/content/ron-leach-planning-drive-us-senate . dead .
  28. Web site: Owensboro man files to run for U.S. Senate . . Mayse . James . January 19, 2016 . January 21, 2016 . January 23, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160123034953/http://www.messenger-inquirer.com/news/local/owensboro-man-files-to-run-for-u-s-senate/article_d736ddcb-6709-5403-9636-08b39414a7ad.html . dead .
  29. News: Willis/Autry . Kevin/Lisa . Former Kentucky House Speaker: Democrat's Senate Candidate Should Harp on Paul's White House Run . . January 28, 2016 .
  30. News: Kocher . Greg . Frankfort filmmaker tells the story of people he thinks helped to kill proposed Bluegrass Pipeline . Kentucky.com . May 25, 2015 .
  31. News: McKenzie . Elijah . Interview: Sellus Wilder on how grassroots activism helped stop the Bluegrass Pipeline . Broken Sidewalk . March 18, 2016 .
  32. Web site: 16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate . December 29, 2014 . December 29, 2014 . . Cheney . Kyle.
  33. Web site: Adkins files for re-election in 99th House District . . January 15, 2016 . January 15, 2016.
  34. Web site: The list: Adam Edelen leads Democratic chatter for 2016 U.S. Senate candidates . CN2 Pure Politics . Storm . Nick . April 11, 2015 . April 14, 2015.
  35. News: State Auditor Adam Edelen shares thoughts on his election loss, the Democratic Party's decline, and how to move forward . Insider Louisville . November 5, 2015 . November 5, 2015 . November 27, 2015 . https://web.archive.org/web/20151127072442/http://insiderlouisville.com/metro/state-auditor-adam-edelen-shares-thoughts-election-loss-democratic-partys-decline-move-forward/ . dead .
  36. News: Greg Fischer says focus is on work to do in Louisville; Mum on U.S. Senate race in '16 . CN2 . August 17, 2014 . November 7, 2014.
  37. Web site: TEGNA . Fischer: 'No intention' to enter 2016 U.S. Senate race . WHAS11.com . March 3, 2015 . December 5, 2016.
  38. News: David Weigel . The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016 . July 17, 2013 . Slate . July 13, 2014.
  39. Web site: Louisville attorney and retired Marine Andrew Horne considering Senate run against Rand Paul . Insider Louisville . Sonka . Joe . January 6, 2016 . January 7, 2016 . January 6, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160106225530/http://insiderlouisville.com/metro/louisville-attorney-and-retired-marine-andrew-horne-consider-senate-run-against-rand-paul/ . dead .
  40. Web site: Kentucky Democrats Running out of Time to Challenge Paul . January 19, 2016 . January 19, 2016 . Roll Call . Eli . Yokley .
  41. Web site: It's Still Possible Kentucky Lt. Gov. Crit Luallen Might Run For Office Again Someday . WFPL News . Lisa Autry . December 4, 2014 . December 5, 2014 . December 9, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141209120604/http://wfpl.org/post/its-still-possible-kentucky-lt-gov-crit-luallen-might-run-office-again-someday . dead .
  42. Web site: Louisville lawyer Jennifer Moore mulling statewide run in 2015 or 2016 . CN2 Pure Politics . Storm . Nick . August 9, 2013 . November 21, 2014.
  43. https://www.c-span.org/video/?416939-1/kentucky-senate-debate Full debate
  44. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
  45. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
  46. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
  47. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
  48. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
  49. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
  50. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
  51. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
  52. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
  53. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
  54. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
  55. http://wkussrc.blogspot.co.uk/2016/11/trump-paul-lead-in-commonwealth-with.html Western Kentucky University
  56. https://morningconsult.com/alert/rand-paul-holds-big-lead-democratic-rival-gop-poll-finds/ RunSwitch Public Relations (R)
  57. http://www.babbagecofounder.com/2016/11/01/paul-trump-lead-final-cofounder-pulse-poll/ Cofounder Pulse Poll
  58. http://www.babbagecofounder.com/2016/10/18/paul-steady-trump-falls-maintain-leads-latest-poll/ Cofounder Pulse Poll
  59. http://www.babbagecofounder.com/2016/09/21/new-kentucky-poll-trump-paul-continue-hold-leads/ Cofounder Pulse Poll
  60. http://www.babbagecofounder.com/2016/08/08/cofounder-pulse-poll-presidential-and-senate-poll-kentucky/ Cofounder Pulse Poll
  61. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B8AUy6-gVq5MQW5KSVZ0dU5kalE/view Harper Polling
  62. http://www.babbagecofounder.com/2016/04/15/cofounder-pulse-poll-paul-27-7-gray-25-8-undecided-46-6/ Cofounder Pulse Poll
  63. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_KY_6231523458923458.pdf Public Policy Polling
  64. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_KY_813513.pdf Public Policy Polling
  65. Web site: DRA 2020 . 2024-08-19 . Daves Redistricting.

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