2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky explained

Election Name:	2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Country:	Kentucky
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2002 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Previous Year:	2002
Next Election:	2014 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Next Year:	2014
Election Date:	November 4, 2008
Image1:	Sen Mitch McConnell official cropped.jpg
Nominee1:	Mitch McConnell
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	953,816
Percentage1:	52.97%
Nominee2:	Bruce Lunsford
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	847,005
Percentage2:	47.03%
Map Size:	300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Mitch McConnell
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Mitch McConnell
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2008 United States Senate election in Kentucky was held on November 4, 2008. Minority Leader and incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell won re-election to a fifth term. Although Barack Obama lost Kentucky by a 16.22% margin to John McCain in the concurrent presidential election, McConnell more narrowly kept his seat with a 5.94% margin against businessman Bruce Lunsford. This was a greatly reduced margin from when he won re-election in 2002 with a 29.4% margin.

Background

In 2007 Kentucky's unpopular Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, lost his re-election bid. The Democrats took control of both Houses of Congress in the 2006 mid-term elections and in October Chuck Schumer acknowledged they were aiming for McConnell's seat.^[1]

State auditor Crit Luallen was considered a top contender for the Democratic nomination, but she decided to remain as auditor.^[2] Lunsford was asked to run by Kentucky Governor Steve Beshear.^[3] Seven candidates competed for the Democratic Primary nomination. The primaries for both parties took place on May 20, 2008, in which Lunsford took more than 50%.

Republican primary

Candidates

• Daniel Essek
• Mitch McConnell, incumbent U.S. Senator

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Michael Cassaro
• Greg Fischer, businessman
• Bruce Lunsford, former Kentucky Secretary of Commerce and candidate for Governor in 2003 and 2007
• James Rice
• Kenneth Stepp
• David Williams
• David Wylie

Results

General election

Candidates

• Bruce Lunsford (D), businessman
• Mitch McConnell (R), incumbent U.S. Senator

Campaign

In October Lunsford and McConnell were statistically tied in the polls. Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said "If Lunsford is actually doing this well, its got to be because the public is so upset by the economic meltdown and may be blaming the legislative leaders."^[4]

A debate scheduled for October 7 hosted by the League of Women Voters was canceled when incumbent McConnell decided not to participate even though Lunsford announced he wanted to debate.^[5]

On November 2, 2008, media outlets such as The Wall Street Journal noted that the website of The New Republic had reported that anti-McConnell flyers questioning the senator's sexuality as well as the reasons for his 1967 military discharge were being distributed in Kentucky.^{[6] [7]}

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[8]		October 23, 2008
align=left	CQ Politics^[9]		October 31, 2008
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[10]		November 2, 2008
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[11]		November 1, 2008

Polling

Poll Source	Dates administered	Lunsford	McConnell
Voter/Consumer Research^[12]	January 6–8, 2008	37%		52%
Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV^[13]	May 7–9, 2008	36%		48%
Voter/Consumer Research^[14]	May 21–22, 2008	39%		50%
Rasmussen Reports^[15]	May 22, 2008		49%	44%
Survey USA^[16]	June 13–16, 2008	46%		50%
Voter/Consumer Research^[17]	June 15–17, 2008	39%		50%
Rasmussen Reports^[18]	June 25, 2008	41%		48%
Rasmussen Reports^[19]	July 29, 2008	42%		52%
Survey USA^[20]	August 11, 2008	40%		52%
Voter/Consumer Research^[21]	September 7–9, 2008	35%		52%
Research 2000 for Daily Kos^[22]	September 15–17, 2008	37%		50%
SurveyUSA^[23]	September 21–22, 2008	46%		49%
Rasmussen Reports^[24]	September 30, 2008	42%		51%
SurveyUSA^[25]	October 20, 2008	48%	48%
Rasmussen Reports^[26]	October 21, 2008	43%		50%
Research 2000/ Lexington Herald-Leader/ WKYT-TV^[27]	October 22, 2008	43%		47%
Rasmussen Reports^[28]	October 29, 2008	44%		51%
Survey USA^[29]	November 1, 2008	45%		53%

Results breakdown

County^[30]	Precincts	Reporting	Lunsford	% Lunsford	McConnell	% McConnell	Total
Adair	16	16	2,198	30.88%	4,920	69.12%	7,118 (R)
Allen	13	13	2,331	31.85%	4,987	68.15%	7,318 (R)
Anderson	14	14	4,787	46.27%	5,558	53.73%	10,345 (R)
Ballard	13	13	1,893	46.68%	2,162	53.32%	4,055 (R)
Barren	24	24	6,735	41.15%	9,630	58.85%	16,365 (R)
Bath	12	12	2,747	61.36%	1,730	38.64%	4,477 (D)
Bell	33	33	3,494	38.83%	5,505	61.17%	8,999 (R)
Boone	60	60	15,224	30.75%	34,285	69.25%	49,509 (R)
Bourbon	18	18	4,325	52.26%	3,951	47.74%	8,276 (D)
Boyd	47	47	11,174	54.23%	9,430	45.77%	20,604 (D)
Boyle	25	25	5,854	46.90%	6,627	53.10%	12,481 (R)
Bracken	8	8	1,382	41.17%	1,975	58.83%	3,357 (R)
Breathitt	21	21	3,111	61.41%	1,955	38.59%	5,066 (D)
Breckinridge	15	15	3,736	44.02%	4,752	55.98%	8,488 (R)
Bullitt	44	44	12,501	41.85%	17,368	58.15%	29,869 (R)
Butler	12	12	1,771	33.59%	3,501	66.41%	5,272 (R)
Caldwell	13	13	2,821	46.30%	3,272	53.70%	6,093 (R)
Calloway	30	30	6,870	45.39%	8,266	54.61%	15,136 (R)
Campbell	66	66	14,789	37.55%	24,591	62.45%	39,380 (R)
Carlisle	6	6	1,220	46.51%	1,403	53.49%	2,623 (R)
Carroll	11	11	2,157	57.23%	1,612	42.77%	3,769 (D)
Carter	23	23	5,220	53.74%	4,494	46.26%	9,714 (D)
Casey	15	15	1,783	30.55%	4,053	69.45%	5,836 (R)
Christian	44	44	9,030	40.79%	13,109	59.21%	22,139 (R)
Clark	26	26	7,436	48.49%	7,898	51.51%	15,334 (R)
Clay	20	20	2,458	33.85%	4,804	66.15%	7,262 (R)
Clinton	13	13	1,029	25.42%	3,019	74.58%	4,048 (R)
Crittenden	12	12	1,615	41.59%	2,268	58.41%	3,883 (R)
Cumberland	9	9	763	28.62%	1,903	71.38%	2,666 (R)
Daviess	84	84	20,779	47.94%	22,563	52.06%	43,342 (R)
Edmonson	10	10	1,996	38.06%	3,249	61.94%	5,245 (R)
Elliott	7	7	1,830	71.99%	712	28.01%	2,542 (R)
Estill	15	15	2,162	41.36%	3,065	58.64%	5,227 (R)
Fayette	274	274	68,029	54.15%	57,605	45.85%	125,634 (R)
Fleming	18	18	2,845	50.04%	2,841	49.96%	5,686 (D)
Floyd	42	42	10,105	64.35%	5,598	35.65%	15,703 (D)
Franklin	44	44	13,888	59.00%	9,651	41.00%	23,539 (R)
Fulton	13	13	1,456	53.49%	1,266	46.51%	2,722 (D)
Gallatin	8	8	1,435	45.66%	1,708	54.34%	3,143 (R)
Garrard	13	13	2,858	40.11%	4,268	59.89%	7,126 (R)
Grant	23	23	3,408	39.33%	5,257	60.67%	8,665 (R)
Graves	30	30	7,839	48.76%	8,239	51.24%	16,078 (R)
Grayson	23	23	3,863	39.23%	5,983	60.77%	9,846 (R)
Green	10	10	1,777	35.73%	3,197	64.27%	4,974 (R)
Greenup	32	32	8,258	52.83%	7,374	47.17%	15,632 (D)
Hancock	10	10	2,298	56.09%	1,799	43.91%	4,097 (D)
Hardin	55	55	17,318	43.68%	22,326	56.32%	39,644 (R)
Harlan	35	35	4,440	45.92%	5,229	54.08%	9,669 (R)
Harrison	17	17	3,814	50.47%	3,743	49.53%	7,557 (D)
Hart	19	19	2,962	44.60%	3,680	55.40%	6,642 (R)
Henderson	42	42	11,048	56.06%	8,659	43.94%	19,707 (D)
Henry	20	20	3,194	46.52%	3,672	53.48%	6,866 (R)
Hickman	6	6	1,049	47.49%	1,160	52.51%	2,209 (R)
Hopkins	40	40	8,481	44.87%	10,419	55.13%	18,900 (R)
Jackson	14	14	1,245	24.71%	3,794	75.29%	5,039 (R)
Jefferson	515	515	195,401	55.73%	155,241	44.27%	350,642 (D)
Jessamine	37	37	7,847	39.60%	11,969	60.40%	19,816 (R)
Johnson	31	31	3,252	38.81%	5,128	61.19%	8,380 (R)
Kenton	108	108	19,217	36.26%	33,787	63.74%	53,004 (R)
Knott	30	30	3,477	62.14%	2,118	37.86%	5,595 (D)
Knox	30	30	4,329	39.01%	6,767	60.99%	11,096 (R)
LaRue	12	12	2,523	41.97%	3,489	58.03%	6,012 (R)
Laurel	45	45	6,850	31.15%	15,138	68.85%	21,988 (R)
Lawrence	18	18	2,641	47.47%	2,923	52.53%	5,564 (R)
Lee	10	10	1,073	39.77%	1,625	60.23%	2,698 (R)
Leslie	17	17	1,083	25.15%	3,224	74.85%	4,307 (R)
Letcher	32	32	4,198	51.82%	3,903	48.18%	8,101 (D)
Lewis	14	14	1,787	38.26%	2,884	61.74%	4,671 (R)
Lincoln	17	17	4,119	45.47%	4,939	54.53%	9,058 (R)
Livingston	10	10	2,142	47.35%	2,382	52.65%	4,524 (R)
Logan	20	20	4,379	40.70%	6,379	59.30%	10,758 (R)
Lyon	6	6	1,821	47.80%	1,989	52.20%	3,810 (R)
McCracken	54	54	13,006	42.91%	17,303	57.09%	30,309 (D)
McCreary	18	18	1,576	30.41%	3,606	69.59%	5,182 (R)
McLean	8	8	2,225	50.55%	2,177	49.45%	4,402 (D)
Madison	56	56	14,657	45.96%	17,237	54.04%	31,894 (R)
Magoffin	14	14	2,719	58.81%	1,904	41.19%	4,623 (D)
Marion	17	17	4,304	57.68%	3,158	42.32%	7,462 (D)
Marshall	25	25	7,463	48.94%	7,785	51.06%	15,248 (R)
Martin	14	14	1,203	33.19%	2,422	66.81%	3,625 (R)
Mason	20	20	3,095	44.58%	3,847	55.42%	6,942 (R)
Meade	18	18	5,149	46.58%	5,905	53.42%	11,054 (R)
Menifee	6	6	1,520	61.51%	951	38.49%	2,471 (D)
Mercer	17	17	4,338	44.17%	5,484	55.83%	9,822 (R)
Metcalfe	12	12	1,766	44.03%	2,245	55.97%	4,011 (R)
Monroe	12	12	1,237	27.16%	3,318	72.84%	4,555 (R)
Montgomery	18	18	5,526	54.25%	4,660	45.75%	10,186 (D)
Morgan	12	12	2,475	57.03%	1,865	42.97%	4,340 (D)
Muhlenberg	26	26	7,436	57.90%	5,406	42.10%	12,842 (R)
Nelson	26	26	8,823	49.60%	8,965	50.40%	17,788 (R)
Nicholas	5	5	1,737	59.47%	1,184	40.53%	2,921 (D)
Ohio	25	25	4,664	47.08%	5,242	52.92%	9,906 (R)
Oldham	34	34	10,204	35.25%	18,744	64.75%	28,948 (R)
Owen	13	13	2,019	42.93%	2,684	57.07%	4,703 (R)
Owsley	8	8	559	34.46%	1,063	65.54%	1,622 (R)
Pendleton	12	12	2,155	37.97%	3,520	62.03%	5,675 (R)
Perry	37	37	5,026	49.10%	5,211	50.90%	10,237 (R)
Pike	57	57	12,912	57.16%	9,679	42.84%	22,591 (D)
Powell	11	11	2,863	57.91%	2,081	42.09%	4,944 (D)
Pulaski	57	57	8,108	32.20%	17,072	67.80%	25,180 (R)
Robertson	5	5	498	49.21%	514	50.79%	1,012 (R)
Rockcastle	14	14	1,837	30.55%	4,177	69.45%	6,014 (R)
Rowan	18	18	4,710	58.71%	3,312	41.29%	8,022 (D)
Russell	16	16	2,450	33.67%	4,827	66.33%	7,277 (R)
Scott	35	35	9,238	47.36%	10,267	52.64%	19,505 (R)
Shelby	33	33	7,546	41.15%	10,790	58.85%	18,336 (R)
Simpson	13	13	3,118	44.29%	3,922	55.71%	7,040 (R)
Spencer	11	11	3,159	39.64%	4,811	60.36%	7,970 (R)
Taylor	20	20	4,163	38.52%	6,644	61.48%	10,807 (R)
Todd	13	13	1,772	36.89%	3,032	63.11%	4,804 (R)
Trigg	14	14	2,637	40.76%	3,833	59.24%	6,470 (R)
Trimble	12	12	1,927	50.87%	1,861	49.13%	3,788 (D)
Union	16	16	3,335	55.46%	2,678	44.54%	6,013 (D)
Warren	63	63	19,162	43.84%	24,547	56.16%	43,709 (R)
Washington	14	14	2,316	45.04%	2,826	54.96%	5,142 (R)
Wayne	19	19	3,045	43.30%	3,987	56.70%	7,032 (R)
Webster	14	14	3,000	54.39%	2,516	45.61%	5,516 (D)
Whitley	36	36	4,849	36.37%	8,484	63.63%	13,333 (R)
Wolfe	8	8	1,886	62.74%	1,120	37.26%	3,006 (D)
Woodford	16	16	5,903	48.65%	6,231	51.35%	12,134 (R)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Bourbon (Largest city: Paris)
• Carroll (Largest city: Carrollton)
• Carter (Largest city: Grayson)
• Hancock (Largest city: Hawesville)
• Magoffin (Largest city: Salyersville)
• Trimble (Largest city: Bedford)
• Webster (Largest city: Providence)
• McLean (Largest city: Livermore)
• Morgan (Largest city: West Liberty)
• Harrison (Largest city: Cynthiana)
• Henderson (Largest city: Henderson)
• Letcher (Largest city: Jenkins)
• Muhlenberg (Largest city: Central City)
• Greenup (Largest city: Flatwoods)
• Fulton (Largest city: Fulton)
• Fleming (Largest city: Flemingsburg)
• Lincoln (Largest city: Stanford)
• Bath (Largest city: Owingsville)
• Fayette (Largest city: Lexington)
• Marion (Largest city: Lebanon)
• Menifee (Largest city: Frenchburg)
• Nicholas (Largest city: Carlisle)
• Rowan (Largest city: Morehead)
• Franklin (Largest city: Frankfort)
• Jefferson (Largest city: Louisville)

See also

• 2008 United States Senate elections

External links

• Kentucky State Board of Elections
• U.S. Congress candidates for Kentucky at Project Vote Smart
• Web site: Kentucky, U.S. Senate . June 27, 2008 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080504014554/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=senate-KY . May 4, 2008 . dead . mdy-all . – CQ Politics
• Kentucky U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
• Web site: Kentucky U.S. Senate race . July 26, 2008 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080622070112/http://www.2008racetracker.com/page/KY-Sen . June 22, 2008 . dead . mdy-all . – 2008 Race Tracker
• Web site: Campaign contributions . July 21, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080612130507/http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?cycle=2008&id=KYS1 . June 12, 2008 . bot: unknown . mdy-all . – OpenSecrets
• Web site: McConnell (R-i) vs Lunsford (D) . May 23, 2008 . http://arquivo.pt/wayback/20091012010452/http://www.pollster.com/08-KY-Sen-GE-MvL.php . October 12, 2009 . dead . mdy-all . – graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
• Official campaign websites
  • Web site: Bruce Lunsford for U.S. Senate . September 9, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20080324231011/http://bruce2008.com/ . March 24, 2008 . bot: unknown . mdy-all . – Democratic nominee
  • Mitch McConnell for Senate – Republican nominee

Notes and References

1. News: Schumer Takes Aim At Senate's Top Republican . . October 31, 2007 . Sam. Stein. October 31, 2007.
2. Web site: KY-Sen: Schumer says Crit is in. Daily Kos.
3. News: . January 30, 2008 . Lunsford to challenge McConnell; Lewis is out . Gerth, Joseph.
4. News: McConnell, Lunsford race a dead heat . . September 27, 2008 . September 27, 2008.
5. News: Lunsford-McConnell Debate Now Off . . September 30, 2008 . October 17, 2008 . https://web.archive.org/web/20081011191700/http://www.kypost.com/content/wcposhared/story.aspx?content_id=f07be9b6-9dd1-4672-93fa-4de5e6f93a5a . October 11, 2008 . dead .
6. McConnell Outing Controversy Breaks Into National Mainstream Media . Proud of Who We Are . Proud of Who We Are . November 3, 2008 .
7. Democratic Gay-Baiting? You Don't Say... . Cottle . Michelle . Christopher . Orr . Jason . Zengerle . . November 2, 2008 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20081106080713/http://blogs.tnr.com/tnr/blogs/the_plank/archive/2008/11/02/democratic-gay-baiting-you-don-t-say.aspx . November 6, 2008 .
8. Web site: 2008 Senate Race ratings for October 23, 2008 . The Cook Political Report . April 1, 2021.
9. http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate Race Ratings Chart: Senate
10. Web site: 2008 Senate ratings . Inside Elections . April 1, 2021.
11. Web site: 2008 RCP Averages & Senate Results . Real Clear Politics . August 31, 2021.
12. http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0108/New_poll_shows_McConnell_popular_in_KY_as_reelection_bid_looms.html Voter/Consumer Research
13. http://media.kentucky.com/smedia/2008/05/12/08/Poll-McConnell.source.prod_affiliate.79.pdf Research 2000/
    Lexington Herald-Leader/
    WKYT-TV
14. http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0508/McConnell_up_11_points_in_internal_polling.html Voter/Consumer Research
15. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624034017/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate Rasmussen Reports
16. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=93512353-3e37-43d5-ac76-42386ebf0a37 Survey USA
17. https://web.archive.org/web/20080625204448/https://www.rpk.org/News/Read.aspx?ID=8157 Voter/Consumer Research
18. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624034017/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate Rasmussen Reports
19. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624034017/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate Rasmussen Reports
20. https://archive.today/20130131181736/http://www.pollster.com/blogs/poll_surveyusa_kentucky_8911.php/ Survey USA
21. https://web.archive.org/web/20080915133238/http://www.kypolitics.org/kypolitics/2008/09/big-lead-mcconn.html Voter/Consumer Research
22. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/9/19/11402/5992 Research 2000 for Daily Kos
23. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=88b6ce24-c6b2-4bbd-8406-efe7ae2436a7&c=15 SurveyUSA
24. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624034017/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate Rasmussen Reports
25. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollTrack.aspx?g=b7cb88d3-c9ec-4134-8dc7-f6b2ded0be6e SurveyUSA
26. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624034017/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate Rasmussen Reports
27. http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/SenateHorseRace.pdf Research 2000/
    Lexington Herald-Leader/
    WKYT-TV
28. https://web.archive.org/web/20080624034017/http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_senate_elections/kentucky/election_2008_kentucky_senate Rasmussen Reports
29. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=bb48ba7c-7a6e-46d3-8b4d-151c87ac6fd3/ Survey USA
30. Web site: Results . elect.ky.gov. 2021-05-09.