| Election Name: | 2014 United States Senate election in Kansas |
| Country: | Kansas |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2008 United States Senate election in Kansas |
| Previous Year: | 2008 |
| Next Election: | 2020 United States Senate election in Kansas |
| Next Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 4, 2014 |
| Image1: | File:Pat Roberts official Senate photo (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Pat Roberts |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 460,350 |
| Percentage1: | 53.15% |
| Nominee2: | Greg Orman |
| Party2: | Independent (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 368,372 |
| Percentage2: | 42.53% |
| Map Size: | 270px |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Pat Roberts |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Pat Roberts |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2014 United States Senate election in Kansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Kansas, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Republican Senator Pat Roberts was re-elected to a fourth term against Independent Greg Orman and Libertarian nominee Randall Batson. The Democratic nominee, Chad Taylor, withdrew from the race.
Roberts gained negative press attention after criticism that he did not own a home in Kansas, with some comparing the situation to that of former Indiana Senator Richard Lugar, who lost a 2012 Senate primary after a similar residency controversy.[1] Roberts owns a home in Alexandria, Virginia.[2] The primary was held August 5, 2014.[3]
Primary opponent Milton R. Wolf, a radiologist, was under investigation by a state medical ethics board for posting X-ray images of dead patients with macabre commentary to Facebook.[4]
| Poll source | Pat Roberts | D.J. Smith | Milton Wolf | Alvin Zahnter | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Tarrance Group^ | January 13–15, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.5% | 69% | — | 15% | — | — | 16% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 18–20, 2014 | 375 | ± 5.1% | 49% | — | 23% | — | — | 28% | ||
| align=left | SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2014 | 508 | ± 4.4% | 56% | — | 23% | — | 8% | 12% | ||
| align=left | GEB International | July 9, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.28% | 42% | — | 30% | — | — | 28% | ||
| align=left | SurveyUSA | July 17–22, 2014 | 691 | ± 3.8% | 50% | 6% | 30% | 3% | — | 12% | ||
| align=left | Daily Kos/Google Consumer Surveys | August 4, 2014 | 1,002 | ± 3.1% | 53.4% | — | 39.1% | — | — | 7.5% |
| Poll source | Pat Roberts | conservative | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 18–20, 2014 | 375 | ± 5.1% | 43% | 39% | 18% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 21–24, 2013 | 760 | ± 3.6% | 42% | 34% | 24% |
| Poll source | Chad Taylor | Patrick Wiesner | Undecided | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | KSN News/SurveyUSA | July 17–22, 2014 | 322 | ± 5.6% | 48% | 17% | 35% | |||
| align=left | KSN News/SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2014 | 252 | ± 6.3% | 41% | 16% | 43% |
Republicans were worried about Roberts' campaign in August 2014, perceiving it as lethargic and inactive, that Roberts had a low favorability rating, and that internal polling suggested the race was rather close. At the behest of Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell as well as former Senator Bob Dole, Roberts fired his longtime campaign manager Leroy Towns in early September 2014. Chris LaCivita was brought in to revamp the race, and LaCivita protege Corry Bliss replaced Towns as campaign manager. Bliss urged Roberts focus on a strategy of tying Orman to President Obama at every turn, as Obama had low favorability ratings in Kansas. Roberts also began spending more time in Kansas, living out of a hotel in Topeka rather than from his home in Alexandria, Virginia.[21] [22]
On September 3, Democratic nominee Chad Taylor withdrew from the race.[23] On September 4, Kris Kobach, the Republican Kansas Secretary of State, announced that Taylor would remain on the ballot because state law demands he declare himself "incapable of fulfilling the duties of office if elected" in order to be removed, which he did not do. Taylor challenged the decision, and on September 18 the Kansas Supreme Court decided that his name would be taken off the ballot.[24]
On the same day, Kobach demanded the chairman of the Democratic Party name a replacement in eight days, saying he will consider litigation to force the party if they refuse.[25]
A registered Democrat with family ties to Republican Governor Sam Brownback's campaign also filed a petition with the Kansas Supreme Court on September 18 to force the Democratic Party to name a new candidate.[26] Kobach ordered ballots to be mailed to overseas voters on September 20 without a Democratic candidate, but included a disclaimer that another ballot will be sent if the Democratic Party names a replacement candidate.[27]
The state district court in Shawnee County threw out the petition, meaning no replacement for Taylor needed to be named.[28]
The efforts by Bliss and other Republican strategists would ultimately prove successful. Roberts' polling improved in October. Roberts defeated Orman in the general election, winning reelection to a fourth term in office.
If Orman had been elected, the U.S. Senate would have had three independent Senators for the first time in the chamber's history. This—and the question of whom Orman would choose to caucus with if elected—were very large questions in the electoral contest, and because the Kansas race was showing tight in the polls, a subject of considerable national political discourse as well.[29]
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | Debt | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Orman (I) | $2,461,766 | $3,298,186 | $183,599 | $1,124,982 | ||
| Pat Roberts (R) | $5,383,491 | $5,534,415 | $927,449 | 0 |
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[30] | November 3, 2014 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[31] | November 3, 2014 | ||
| align=left | Rothenberg Political Report[32] | November 3, 2014 | ||
| align=left | Real Clear Politics[33] | November 3, 2014 |
| Poll source | Pat Roberts (R) | Chad Taylor (D) | Greg Orman (I) | Randall Batson (L) | Other | Undecided | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 32% | — | — | — | 20% | |
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | April 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 50% | 32% | — | — | 5% | 13% | |
| align=left | SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2014 | 1068 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | 7% | 5% | — | 12% | |
| align=left | SurveyUSA | July 17–22, 2014 | 1,208 | ± 2.9% | 38% | 33% | 14% | 4% | — | 10% | |
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,281 | ± 6.1% | 53% | 37% | — | — | 7% | 4% | |
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | August 6–7, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 40% | — | — | 7% | 8% | |
| Public Policy Polling | August 14–17, 2014 | 903 | ± 3.3% | 32% | 25% | 23% | 3% | — | 17% | ||
| 43% | 39% | — | — | — | 17% | ||||||
| 33% | — | 43% | — | — | 24% | ||||||
| align=left | KSN News/SurveyUSA | August 20–23, 2014 | 560 | ± 4.2% | 37% | 32% | 20% | 4% | — | 6% | |
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 839 | ± 5% | 47% | 35% | — | — | 2% | 15% | |
| align=left | KSN News/SurveyUSA | September 4–7, 2014 | 555 | ± 4.2% | 36% | 10% | 37% | 6% | — | 11% | |
| Public Policy Polling | September 11–14, 2014 | 1,328 | ± 2.7% | 34% | 6% | 41% | 4% | — | 15% | ||
| 36% | — | 46% | — | — | 17% | ||||||
| Fox News | September 14–16, 2014 | 604 | ± 4% | 40% | 11% | 38% | 4% | — | 8% | ||
| 42% | — | 48% | — | — | 8% | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports | September 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 3% | 45% | — | 2% | 10% | ||
| 39% | 9% | 38% | — | 2% | 12% | ||||||
| align=left | Remington Research | September 23, 2014 | 625 | ± 3.91% | 42% | — | 50% | 3% | — | 5% | |
| align=left | Suffolk University | September 27–30, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 41.2% | — | 46.4% | 0.8% | — | 11.6% | |
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 2,013 | ± 3% | 40% | — | 40% | 2% | 0% | 17% | |
| NBC News/Marist | September 27 – October 1, 2014 | 511 LV | ± 4.3% | 38% | — | 48% | 5% | 1% | 9% | ||
| 848 RV | ± 3.4% | 36% | — | 46% | 5% | 1% | 12% | ||||
| align=left | Gravis Marketing | September 30 – October 1, 2014 | 850 | ± 3% | 40% | — | 47% | — | — | 13% | |
| align=left | SurveyUSA | October 2–5, 2014 | 549 | ± 4.3% | 42% | — | 47% | 4% | — | 7% | |
| align=left | CNN/ORC | October 2–6, 2014 | 687 | ± 3.5% | 49% | — | 48% | — | — | 3% | |
| align=left | Fox News | October 4–7, 2014 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 44% | — | 39% | 3% | 4% | 12% | |
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | October 7–8, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | — | 52% | — | 4% | 4% | |
| Public Policy Polling | October 9–12, 2014 | 1,081 | ± 3% | 41% | — | 44% | 5% | — | 10% | ||
| 43% | — | 46% | — | — | 11% | ||||||
| align=left | Remington Research | October 9–12, 2014 | 1,091 | ± 2.97% | 48% | — | 46% | 2% | — | 4% | |
| align=left | Monmouth University | October 16–19, 2014 | 429 | ± 4.7% | 46% | — | 46% | — | 3% | 5% | |
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | October 20–21, 2014 | 960 | ± 3% | 44% | — | 49% | — | 3% | 5% | |
| align=left | Gravis Marketing | October 20–21, 2014 | 1,124 | ± 3% | 45% | — | 47% | — | — | 8% | |
| NBC News/Marist | October 18–22, 2014 | 757 LV | ± 3.6% | 44% | — | 45% | 4% | <1% | 7% | ||
| 1,055 RV | ± 3% | 42% | — | 45% | 4% | 1% | 9% | ||||
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,973 | ± 4% | 42% | — | 38% | 1% | 0% | 18% | |
| align=left | Survey USA | October 22–26, 2014 | 623 | ± 4% | 42% | — | 44% | 4% | — | 10% | |
| align=left | Fox News | October 28–30, 2014 | 907 | ± 3% | 43% | — | 44% | 3% | 1% | 8% | |
| align=left | YouGov | October 25–31, 2014 | 1,137 | ± 4.8% | 38% | — | 37% | 2% | 2% | 22% | |
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | October 30–31, 2014 | 752 | ± ? | 47% | — | 46% | 3% | — | 4% | |
| Public Policy Polling | November 1–3, 2014 | 963 | ± 3.2% | 46% | — | 47% | 3% | — | 4% | ||
| 47% | — | 49% | — | — | 3% |
| Poll source | Pat Roberts (R) | Kathleen Sebelius (D) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | April 16–17, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 54% | 37% | 5% | 4% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 52% | 38% | — | 10% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 21–24, 2013 | 1,229 | ± 2.8% | 51% | 40% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Pat Roberts (R) | Patrick Wiesner (D) | Randall Batson (L) | Greg Orman (I) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2014 | 1068 | ± 3.1% | 45% | 29% | 6% | 8% | — | 12% | ||
| align=left | SurveyUSA | July 17–22, 2014 | 1,208 | ± 2.9% | 40% | 27% | 5% | 17% | — | 11% |
| Poll source | Milton Wolf (R) | Chad Taylor (D) | Randall Batson (L) | Greg Orman (I) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Public Policy Polling | February 18–20, 2014 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 33% | 32% | — | — | — | 35% | ||
| align=left | SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2014 | 1068 | ± 3.1% | 33% | 36% | 6% | 7% | — | 18% | ||
| align=left | SurveyUSA | July 17–22, 2014 | 1,208 | ± 2.9% | 33% | 34% | 5% | 14% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Milton Wolf (R) | Patrick Wiesner (D) | Randall Batson (L) | Greg Orman (I) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | SurveyUSA | June 19–23, 2014 | 1068 | ± 3.1% | 36% | 30% | 6% | 8% | — | 20% | ||
| align=left | SurveyUSA | July 17–22, 2014 | 1,208 | ± 2.9% | 35% | 28% | 5% | 16% | — | 16% |