2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii explained

Election Name:2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii
Country:Hawaii
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2016 United States Senate election in Hawaii
Next Year:2016
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Image1:File:Brian Schatz official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Brian Schatz
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:246,827
Percentage1:69.78%
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:98,006
Percentage2:27.70%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Brian Schatz
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Brian Schatz
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii took place on November 4, 2014, the general Election Day in the United States, concurrently with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Brian Schatz was appointed to the office in December 2012, following the death of longtime senator Daniel Inouye.[1] The special election determined who would serve the remainder of Inouye's term, which ended on January 3, 2017.

The Hawaii primary elections took place on August 9, 2014,[2] but the Democratic primary remained unresolved until August 15 due to areas affected by damage from Tropical Storm Iselle. Schatz narrowly fended off a primary challenge from U.S. Representative Colleen Hanabusa and then went on to defeat the Republican nominee, former state representative Campbell Cavasso, in a landslide.

Background

Daniel Inouye announced that he planned to run for a record tenth term in 2016, when he would have been 92 years old.[3] [4] He also said, "I have told my staff and I have told my family that when the time comes, when you question my sanity or question my ability to do things physically or mentally, I don't want you to hesitate, do everything to get me out of here, because I want to make certain the people of Hawaii get the best representation possible."[5] Inouye died on December 17, 2012.[6] He left a letter encouraging Governor Neil Abercrombie to appoint Congresswoman Colleen Hanabusa to succeed Inouye, should he become incapacitated.[7]

Hawaii law allows the governor to appoint an interim senator "who serves until the next regularly-scheduled general election, chosen from a list of three prospective appointees that the prior incumbent's political party submits". Abercrombie appointed the Lieutenant Governor of Hawaii Brian Schatz as U.S. Senator, citing Hanabusa's seniority on the United States House Committee on Armed Services as a chief reason not to appoint her to the position.[8]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Debates

Polling

Poll sourceBrian
Schatz		Colleen
Hanabusa		OtherUndecided
align=left QMark Research^[12] February 2013500± 4.38%32%54%—13%
align=left Clarity Campaigns^[13] June 10–11, 2013771± 3.53%35%46%—19%
align=left Civil Beat[14] June 18–20 & 24, 2013869± 3.3%36%33%9%23%
align=left Mellman Group June 26–30, 2013600± ?%38%37%—25%
align=left Civil Beat[16] October 9–10, 2013549± 4.2%38%36%—26%
align=left Mellman Group January 7–13, 2014800± 3.5%41%37%—22%
align=left Hawaii Poll[18] January 29 – February 3, 2014528± 4.3%40%48%—11%
align=left Civil Beat[19] February 12–15, 2014643± 3.9%40%40%—20%
align=left Public Policy Polling[20] May 9–11, 2014606± 4%49%34%—17%
align=left Civil Beat[21] May 18–19, 2014520± 4.3%44%39%—16%
align=left Public Policy Polling[22] July 23–24, 2014410± ?49%39%—11%
align=left Civil Beat[23] July 24–28, 2014895± 3.3%49%41%—10%
align=left Hawaii Poll[24] July 21–29, 2014458± 4.6%42%50%—8%

Delay in election result

Primary elections in Hawaii were held on August 9, 2014. However, two precincts in Puna on Hawaiʻi Island did not open due to damage from Hurricane Iselle, and the approximately 8,255 voters in those precincts instead voted on August 15.[25] The two leading Democratic candidates, Colleen Hanabusa and Brian Schatz, were initially separated by only 1,635 votes, meaning that the outcome was officially uncertain until voting in Puna was finished.[26] [27] However, an analysis by Hawaii News Now showed that Hanabusa would need to win approximately 65% of the vote in the outstanding precincts to overtake Schatz, something she had not managed in any other precinct in the state.[28] Thus, Schatz was seen as the likely winner.[29] After voting in Puna was completed, Schatz was declared the winner by a slightly increased margin of 1,769 votes.[30] Hanabusa conceded on August 19.[31]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Results

Vote totals listed do not include two precincts that will vote on August 15.

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Results

Independent primary

Candidates

Results

Neither of the candidates polled enough votes to meet Hawaii's strict criteria for independents to participate in the general election.[39]

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[40] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[41] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[42] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[43] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceBrian
Schatz (D)		Campbell
Cavasso (R)		OtherUndecided
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[44] July 5–24, 20141,087± 3%58%22%15%5%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[45] August 18 – September 2, 2014655± 6%62%27%0%10%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[46] September 9–10, 2014750± 4%60%28%6%7%
align=left Civil Beat[47] September 11–14, 20141,055± 3%62%25%—13%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[48] September 20 – October 1, 20141,319± 4%78%22%0%0%
align=left Ward Research[49] October 11–18, 2014605± 4%71%20%—10%
align=left Civil Beat[50] October 16–19, 20141,221± 2.8%55%29%—16%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,002± 6%70%18%1%11%

Results

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Who Is Brian Schatz, the New U.S. Senator From Hawaii? - David A. Graham - The Atlantic . . December 27, 2012 . July 30, 2014 .
  2. Web site: 2014 Calendar of Elections . Hawai'i Office of Elections . March 9, 2014.
  3. Web site: Sen. Daniel Inouye goes silent on big Hawaiian race . Politico . April 12, 2011 . Manu Raju and John Bresnahan.
  4. Web site: Hamilton . Chris . The Maui News — Inouye has more he wants to do for (Hawaii Senator emphasizes need for Democrats to remain in control) . The Maui News . September 2, 2012.
  5. Web site: Sen. Akaka: "God willing, I Plan to Run Again in 2012" . April 26, 2010 . March 3, 2011 . . Ron . Mizutani . https://web.archive.org/web/20110713145454/http://www.khon2.com/news/local/story/Sen-Akaka-God-willing-I-Plan-to-Run-Again-in-2012/SawY7oCPAUWYz4rHaROnDw.cspx . July 13, 2011 . dead . mdy-all .
  6. News: Hawaii Sen. Daniel Inouye dies at age 88 . Washington Post . December 17, 2012.
  7. News: CNN: Inouye gave preference for successor before he died . CNN.com . December 18, 2012 . December 18, 2012.
  8. http://www.hawaiireporter.com/lt-gov-brian-schatz-to-replace-inouye-in-u-s-senate/123 Lt. Gov. Brian Schatz to Replace Inouye in U.S. Senate | Hawaii Reporter
  9. News: 'At Fenway' crooner Brian Evans running for Hawaii's U.S. Senate . https://web.archive.org/web/20140315125828/http://www.metro.us/boston/news/local/2014/03/13/fenway-crooner-brian-evans-announces-u-s-senate-run/ . dead . March 15, 2014 . Metro . Morgan . Rousseau . March 13, 2014 . March 15, 2014 .
  10. News: Rep. Colleen Hanabusa to challenge Sen. Brian Schatz in 2014 primary . April 23, 2013 . Hawaii News Now . April 23, 2013.
  11. http://www.hawaiireporter.com/former-congressman-ed-case-joins-growing-list-of-democrats-applying-for-inouyes-u-s-senate-seat/123 Former Congressman Ed Case Joins Growing List of Democrats Applying for Inouye’s U.S. Senate Seat | Hawaii Reporter
  12. https://www.scribd.com/doc/151108982/HI-Sen-QMark-Research-for-Hanabusa-Feb-2013 QMark Research^
  13. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/colleen-hanabusa-hawaii-senate-democratic-primary-2014-poll-93657.html?hp=r6 Clarity Campaigns^
  14. http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/07/01/19414-civil-beat-poll-a-year-out-hawaii-senate-race-up-for-grabs/ Civil Beat
  15. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/colleen-hanabusa-hawaii-senate-democratic-primary-2014-poll-93657.html?hp=r6 Mellman Group*
  16. http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2013/10/22/20203-civil-beat-poll-schatz-has-narrow-lead-over-hanabusa/ Civil Beat
  17. https://www.scribd.com/doc/207326601/HI-Sen-Mellman-for-Brian-Schatz-Jan-2014 Mellman Group*
  18. http://ftpcontent4.worldnow.com/khnl/specials/hipoll2014_tb1-22.pdf Hawaii Poll
  19. http://www.civilbeat.com/articles/2014/02/25/21242-civil-beat-poll-hawaiis-us-senate-race-in-holding-pattern/ Civil Beat
  20. http://www.democracyforamerica.com/blog/826-breaking-schatz-jumps-out-to-a-fifteen-point-lead-over-hanabusa-in-new-hi-sen-poll Public Policy Polling
  21. http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/05/civil-beat-poll-hawaii-voters-moving-toward-schatz/ Civil Beat
  22. https://www.scribd.com/doc/235285904/HI-Sen-HI-Gov-PPP-for-LCV-July-2014 Public Policy Polling
  23. http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/08/civil-beat-poll-schatz-takai-both-frontrunners-for-washington-d-c/ Civil Beat
  24. http://www.hawaiinewsnow.com/story/26186931/hawaii-poll-hanabusa-up-over-schatz-in-senate-showdown Hawaii Poll
  25. News: Blair . Chad . Hawaii Elections Office Announces Plan for Puna Voting on Friday . August 11, 2014 . Honolulu Civil Beat . Peer News . August 12, 2014.
  26. News: Nakaso . Dan . All eyes on Puna . August 11, 2014 . Honolulu Star-Advertiser . Oahu Publications . August 11, 2014 . subscription.
  27. News: Grube . Nick . Will Hanabusa's Push in Puna Be Enough? . August 10, 2014 . Honolulu Civil Beat . Peer News . August 11, 2014.
  28. News: Puna voters give edge to Schatz in close race with Hanabusa. August 11, 2014. September 8, 2014. Hawaii News Now.
  29. News: August 11, 2014 . Does Schatz have edge with remaining Hawaii voters?. Roll Call . September 8, 2014.
  30. News: DePledge . Derrick . Reyes . B.J. . August 16, 2014 . It's Schatz . Honolulu Star-Advertiser . Oahu Publications . August 16, 2014 . subscription.
  31. News: August 19, 2014 . Hanabusa Won't Challenge US Senate Election Results. Peer News . Honolulu Civil Beat . August 21, 2014.
  32. News: Civil Beat Poll — Schatz Has Narrow Lead Over Hanabusa . Honolulu Civil Beat . Chad . Blair . October 22, 2013 . October 23, 2013.
  33. News: Hawaii State Certified Filing Report . State of Hawaii, Office of Elections . Scott . Nago . June 10, 2014 . June 13, 2014.
  34. News: John Roco announces candidacy for U.S. Senate Hawaii 2014 . China Hawaii Today . April 12, 2014.
  35. Web site: State GOP chair confirms Djou congressional run . . March 21, 2014 . Ian Scheuring.
  36. http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/hanabusa-seen-as-favorite-for-inouye-seat-85207.html Colleen Hanabusa favorite for Daniel Inouye seat - Alex Isenstadt - POLITICO.com
  37. News: GOP's third shot at Senate: Charm or bust? . Politico . James Hohmann . November 17, 2013 . November 20, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20131124001520/http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=DB4BA472-D670-4F18-A5A3-5762C11A3231 . November 24, 2013 . dead .
  38. News: Former Hawaii Gov. Linda Lingle Returns to CSUN to Teach . CSUN Today . January 15, 2014 . June 3, 2014.
  39. No Independent Candidate Polls Enough Votes in Hawaii Primary to Advance to General Election Ballot . Ballot Access News . August 10, 2014 . October 27, 2014.
  40. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  41. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 3, 2014 . September 20, 2018.
  42. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  43. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  44. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  45. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-hawaii/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  46. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/hawaii/election_2014_hawaii_senate Rasmussen Reports
  47. http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/09/civil-beat-poll-gops-djou-up-by-4-points-over-democrat-takai-in-cd1/ Civil Beat
  48. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  49. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/honolulu-star-advertiser-hawaii-news-now-ward-research-21272 Ward Research
  50. http://www.civilbeat.com/2014/10/civil-beat-poll-takai-djou-race-too-close-to-call/ Civil Beat

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