2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii explained

Election Name:2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii
Country:Hawaii
Type:presidential
Ongoing:Yes
Previous Election:2004 United States Senate election in Hawaii
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2014 United States Senate special election in Hawaii
Next Year:2014
(special)
Election Date:November 2, 2010
Image1:Daniel Inouye official portrait.jpg
Nominee1:Daniel Inouye
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:277,228
Percentage1:74.81%
Nominee2:Campbell Cavasso
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:79,939
Percentage2:21.57%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Daniel Inouye
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Daniel Inouye
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2010 United States Senate election in Hawaii took place on November 2, 2010, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primary elections were held on September 18, 2010.[1] Incumbent Senator Daniel Inouye, also the President pro tempore, secured the Democratic nomination with over 88 percent of the vote over his sole challenger, businessman Andy Woerner, while former state legislator (and Inouye's 2004 opponent) Campbell Cavasso won the Republican nomination with two-thirds of the primary vote.

Focuses of the campaign included Inouye's seniority and ability to direct federal resources to the state, as well as Cavasso's emphases on change and fiscal responsibility. Polling found Inouye with a large lead, although one poll gave the Democrat a lead of only thirteen points, greatly underestimating his share of the vote. Inouye won re-election to his ninth and final term, with nearly 75 percent of the vote to Cavasso's 21.6 percent. The Senator would not serve out his ninth term, as he died in December 2012 and was replaced by appointed then-Lieutenant governor Brian Schatz.

Background

Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its current delegation to the United States Congress currently consists entirely of Democrats. Democrats have also won Hawaii's electoral votes in every presidential election since Ronald Reagan's landslide election in 1984. The exceptions at the time were then-Governor Linda Lingle (who was serving her second and final term) and then-U.S. Representative Charles Djou, both of whom are Republicans.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Results

General election

Candidates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[2] October 26, 2010
Rothenberg[3] October 22, 2010
RealClearPolitics[4] October 26, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[5] October 21, 2010
CQ Politics[6] October 26, 2010

Campaign

The death of longtime U.S. Senator Robert Byrd allowed Inouye to become the President pro tempore and Chairman of the United States Senate Committee on Appropriations. He made no apologies for bringing home as much federal money as he could, despite Republican insistence that the U.S. government taxed and spent too much, a stance he called a "nice gimmick". The Maui News endorsed his reelection.[7]

Cavasso, the 2004 nominee, won the Republican primary again, and ran on a platform of change, emphasizing the need for a balanced budget.[8] Inouye, who defeated Cavasso in 2004 by 52 percentage points, released TV ads that referred to himself simply as "Dan". The senator was said to be "working" for Hawaii's transportation, high-tech economy, education and other needs.[9]

Polling

A Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters conducted on October 13 gave Inouye only a thirteen-point lead over Cavasso, and found the Republican with a modest lead among independent voters.[10] [11] However, the poll would ultimately miss the final margin by forty percentage points. Fivethirtyeights Nate Silver awarded the Rasmussen poll his "worst poll award", citing it as evidence of the pollster's bias against Democratic candidates and observing that it was, as of November 2010, the largest error of any electoral poll in the Fivethirtyeight databases going back to 1998.[12] [13]

Poll sourceDaniel
Inouye (D)
Cam
Cavasso (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports[15] October 13, 2010500± 4.5%53%40%3%4%
Public Policy Polling[16] October 2–3, 20101326± 2.7%65%29%6%

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Daniel Inouye (D)$3,503,323$3,814,829$1,506,305$0
Campbell Cavasso (R)$252,711$238,794$14,385$126,179
Source: Federal Election Commission[17]

Results

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Official Election Results for United States Senate. Federal Election Commission. 2010. PDF. https://web.archive.org/web/20220323131345/https://www.fec.gov/resources/cms-content/documents/2010senate.pdf. March 23, 2022. live.
  2. Web site: Senate . . October 26, 2010.
  3. Web site: Senate Ratings . . October 26, 2010.
  4. Web site: Battle for the Senate . . October 26, 2010.
  5. Web site: 2010 Senate Ratings . . October 26, 2010 . October 28, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028092918/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-senate/ . dead .
  6. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Senate . . October 26, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234525/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate . October 28, 2010 .
  7. Web site: News Clippings . October 30, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101023143303/http://www.daninouyehawaii.com/news/clippings/inouye-is-invaluable/ . October 23, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  8. Web site: Cavasso Files For US Senate Run Cam Cavasso Hawaii Senate Race 2010 . October 30, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101008022334/http://camcavasso.com/cavasso-files-for-us-senate-run/ . October 8, 2010 . dead .
  9. http://www.staradvertiser.com/news/hawaiinews/20101029_Cavasso_undeterred_by_odds_in_campaign_against_Inouye.html Cavasso undeterred by odds in campaign against Inouye - Hawaii News - Staradvertiser.com
  10. Web site: Questions - Hawaii Senate - October 13, 2010 . Rasmussen Reports . June 12, 2021.
  11. Web site: Rasmussen . Scott . Election 2010: Hawaii Senate . Rasmussen Reports . June 12, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101105023351/http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/election_2010_hawaii_senate . November 5, 2010 . October 17, 2010.
  12. Web site: Silver . Nate . Live Blogging the Election Returns . Fivethirtyeight . June 12, 2021 . November 2, 2010.
  13. Web site: Silver . Nate . Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly . Fivethirtyeight . June 12, 2021 . November 4, 2010.
  14. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/toplines/toplines_hawaii_senate_june_24_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  15. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/hawaii/election_2010_hawaii_senate Rasmussen Reports
  16. http://www.dailykos.com/polling/2010/10/2/HI/10/uMymt Public Policy Polling
  17. Web site: 2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Hawaii . fec.gov . July 27, 2010 .