2018 United States Senate election in Florida explained

Election Name:2018 United States Senate election in Florida
Country:Florida
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States Senate election in Florida
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2024 United States Senate election in Florida
Next Year:2024
Election Date:November 6, 2018
Turnout:52.0% [1]
Image1:File:Official Portrait of Senator Rick Scott (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Rick Scott
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:4,099,505
Percentage1:
Nominee2:Bill Nelson
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:4,089,472
Map Size:300px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Bill Nelson
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Rick Scott
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican Governor Rick Scott. The election was the closest Senate race in the state's history.[2]

This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. The results showed that Nelson was narrowly trailing Scott, but the margin remained below 0.5%, triggering an automatic recount under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities. Following the recount, Florida elections officials confirmed Scott's victory on November 18, 2018. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast, or 0.12%. Both in terms of raw vote margin and by percentage of difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott's victory marked the first time since the Reconstruction era in 1875 that Republicans have held both Senate seats in Florida.[3]

Background

Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson sought re-election in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida. The election was expected to be a key race in determining which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2019.[4]

As of the second quarter of 2018, Nelson had a 44%–34% approval rating among his constituents.[5] Despite having won re-election in 2012 by a 13% margin, Nelson was considered potentially vulnerable; he had been the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida since 2011, and his previous opponents, Connie Mack IV and Katherine Harris, were seen as much weaker challengers than Scott. Additionally, he was one of 10 incumbent Democratic senators running in states that had been carried by Donald Trump in 2016. Nelson was described as a "low-key centrist" that might not be able to energize progressive voters.[6]

After being encouraged by President Trump to enter the Senate race,[7] Republican governor of Florida Rick Scott announced his candidacy on April 9, 2018.[8] As of the first quarter of 2018, Scott held a 54%–35% approval rating[9] among his constituents, with a majority of Florida voters believing the state was moving in the right direction under Scott's administration. Republican President Donald Trump also held a positive approval rating of 49%–47% in Florida as of August 2018.[10] Trump had won the state in 2016 by 1.2% over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Scott had put more than $86 million of his own money into his successful 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial bids.[11]

Republican primary

The Republican primary was considered merely a formality, as Governor Scott's lone challenger was a perennial candidate who was running for Senate seats in eight other Republican primaries across the country. No other notable Republicans entered the race before or after Scott announced his candidacy.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in the primary

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rocky
Rick
Scott
Undecided
Gravis Marketing[38] August 21–25, 2018579± 4.1%12% align=center73%15%
Gravis Marketing[39] August 21–22, 2018321± 5.5%12% align=center73%15%
Gravis Marketing[40] July 13–14, 2018905± 3.3%16% align=center74%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
DeSantis

Invictus
David
Jolly
Carlos
Tom
Rooney
Rick
Scott
Marcia R.
Thorne
OtherUndecided
Saint Leo University[41] November 19–24, 20171661%8% align=center54%1%4%33%
Saint Leo University[42] November 27–30, 20161383%6%3%3% align=center41%11%33%

Results

Democratic primary

As both of Senator Nelson's primary opponents failed to qualify for the ballot, no Democratic primary was held.[43]

Candidates

Nominee

Declined

Failed to qualify

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Withdrew

Declined

American Independent Party

Candidates

Withdrew

Independents and write-ins

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

General election

According to The Cook Political Report, the race was one of the 10 most competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation.[64] It was also described as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country.[65] [66]

Scott's involvement in a large Medicare fraud case stirred controversy during the general election campaign.[67] [68] Scott responded with ads accusing Nelson of having cut Medicare benefits and stolen from Medicare; fact-checkers found that both of Scott's assertions were "mostly false."[69] [67] During the campaign, Scott characterize[s] Nelson as a "socialist"; PolitiFact described the assertion as "pants-on-fire" false.[70]

Gun control was a key issue in this race. The election came less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, the deadliest school shooting in American history. Nelson also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, asserting that "nothing was done" by Scott's administration. In the wake of Stoneman Douglas, Scott raised the age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21, set a three-day waiting period to purchase assault-style weapons, and banned bump stocks—moves that Nelson described as "doing the bare...minimum". The National Rifle Association of America opposed Scott's legislation.[71]

Environmental issues also took on a prominent role in the race. Scott and his administration had been heavily criticized for weakening regulations designed to protect the environment, even going as far as to instruct the FDEP not to use the words "climate change" or "global warming" in official reports.[72] Because of this, Scott was blamed for the state's worsening algae blooms, even being dubbed "Red Tide Rick" on social media. Scott blamed the toxic blooms on Nelson and on Congress' general inefficiency.[73]

During the campaign, Scott sought to avoid mentioning President Trump and at times criticized or distanced himself from actions of the Trump administration. Prior to the campaign, he had used his friendship with Trump to boost his profile, had been an early and vocal supporter of Trump in 2016,[74] [75] and reportedly spoke to President Trump every one or two weeks.[74] Trump endorsed Scott in his Senate bid.[75]

Both Nelson's and Scott's responses to Hurricanes Irma and Michael (which made landfall in September 2017 and October 2018, respectively) were closely watched during the campaign season.[76]

Scott made Nelson's age an issue in the campaign.[77]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[78] October 26, 2018
Inside Elections[79] November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] November 5, 2018
NYT[81] November 5, 2018
Fox News[82] November 5, 2018
CNN[83] November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics[84] November 5, 2018
Daily Kos[85] November 5, 2018
Politico[86] November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[87] November 5, 2018

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018
Candidate (party)Total receiptsTotal disbursementsCash on hand
Rick Scott (R) align="right" $68,801,011 align="right" $66,496,248 align="right" $2,304,762
Bill Nelson (D) Incumbent align="right" $28,294,713 align="right" $25,482,421 align="right" $3,806,614
Source: Federal Election Commission[88]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Bill
Nelson (D)
Rick
Scott (R)
OtherUndecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)[89] November 4–5, 20181,484± 2.5%47% align=center49%4%
HarrisX[90] November 3–5, 2018600± 4.0%48%48%
St. Pete Polls[91] November 3–4, 20183,088± 1.8% align=center50%46%4%
HarrisX[92] November 2–4, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center49%
Quinnipiac University[93] October 29 – November 4, 20181,142± 3.5% align=center51%44%0%5%
Emerson College[94] November 1–3, 2018784± 3.7% align=center50%45%3%3%
HarrisX[95] November 1–3, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center47%
Research Co.[96] November 1–3, 2018450± 4.6% align=center47%46%7%
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC)[97] November 1–2, 20181,236 align=center50%48%
St. Pete Polls[98] November 1–2, 20182,733± 1.9%48% align=center49%3%
HarrisX[99] October 31 – November 2, 2018600± 4.0%46% align=center48%
Marist College[100] October 30 – November 2, 2018595 LV± 5.0% align=center50%46%<1%4%
917 RV± 4.1% align=center50%45%<1%5%
Gravis Marketing[101] October 29 – November 2, 2018753± 3.6% align=center50%47%4%
HarrisX[102] October 30 – November 1, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center50%
St. Pete Polls[103] October 30–31, 20182,470± 2.0% align=center49%47%3%
Targoz Market Research[104] October 28–31, 201855845% align=center49%6%
HarrisX[105] October 29–31, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center48%
MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance[106] October 25–31, 20201,00541% align=center43%17%
The Trafalgar Group (R)[107] October 29–30, 20182,543± 1.9% align=center49%47%4%
Vox Populi Polling[108] October 27–30, 2018696± 3.7%50%50%
HarrisX[109] October 24–30, 20181,400± 2.6%43% align=center44%
Cygnal (R)[110] October 27–29, 2018495± 4.4% align=center50%48%2%
CNN/SSRS[111] October 24–29, 2018781 LV± 4.3% align=center49%47%0%2%
887 RV± 4.0%46%46%0%5%
Suffolk University[112] October 25–28, 2018500± 4.4% align=center45%43%10%
NYT Upshot/Siena College[113] October 23–27, 2018737± 4.0% align=center48%44%8%
University of North Florida[114] October 23–26, 20181,051± 3.0% align=center47%46%<1%7%
YouGov[115] October 23–26, 2018991± 4.0%46%46%1%6%
Ipsos[116] October 17–25, 20181,069± 3.4% align=center49%44%3%4%
Gravis Marketing[117] October 22–23, 2018773± 3.5% align=center49%45%6%
Strategic Research Associates[118] October 16–23, 2018800± 3.5% align=center46%45%9%
Saint Leo University[119] October 16–22, 2018698± 3.5% align=center47%38%6%9%
St. Pete Polls[120] October 20–21, 20181,575± 2.5%48% align=center49%3%
Florida Atlantic University[121] October 18–21, 2018704± 3.6%41% align=center42%4%13%
SurveyUSA[122] October 18–21, 2018665± 5.0% align=center49%41%4%6%
Quinnipiac University[123] October 17–21, 20181,161± 3.5% align=center52%46%0%2%
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)[124] October 17–20, 2018600± 4.0%45% align=center47%9%
CNN/SSRS[125] October 16–20, 2018759 LV± 4.2% align=center50%45%0%3%
872 RV± 3.9% align=center49%45%0%4%
OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott)[126] October 14–18, 20182,200± 2.1%46% align=center51%3%
St. Pete Polls[127] October 15–16, 20181,974± 2.2%47% align=center49%4%
Florida Southern College[128] October 1–5, 2018476± 4.5%44% align=center46%6%4%
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS[129] September 19 – October 2, 2018522± 6.0% align=center48%45%1%6%
St. Pete Polls[130] September 29–30, 20182,313± 2.0%47%47%6%
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[131] September 28–30, 2018779± 3.5% align=center48%44%9%
Strategic Research Associates[132] September 17–30, 2018800± 3.5% align=center45%44%11%
Mason-Dixon[133] September 24–27, 2018815± 3.5% align=center47%46%7%
Quinnipiac University[134] September 20–24, 2018888± 4.0% align=center53%46%0%1%
Cherry Communications[135] September 19–24, 2018622± 4.4% align=center48%46%
Marist College[136] September 16–20, 2018600 LV± 4.7% align=center48%45%1%6%
829 RV± 4.0% align=center48%43%1%7%
University of North Florida[137] September 17–19, 201860345%45%1%9%
Florida Atlantic University[138] September 13–16, 2018850± 3.3%41% align=center42%5%11%
Ipsos[139] September 5–12, 20181,000± 4.0%45% align=center46%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports[140] September 10–11, 2018800± 3.5% align=center45%44%5%6%
SurveyUSA[141] September 7–9, 2018634± 5.3%44% align=center46%4%7%
Quinnipiac University[142] August 30 – September 3, 2018785± 4.3%49%49%0%2%
Gravis Marketing[143] August 29–30, 20181,225± 2.8%47%47%6%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[144] August 29–30, 2018743± 4.0% align=center46%45%8%
St. Pete Polls[145] August 29–30, 20181,755± 2.3%47%47%5%
Florida Atlantic University[146] August 16–20, 2018800± 3.4%39% align=center45%17%
Saint Leo University[147] August 10–16, 2018500± 4.5%36% align=center40%8%15%
Mason-Dixon[148] July 24–25, 2018625± 4.0%44% align=center47%9%
Florida Atlantic University[149] July 20–21, 2018800± 3.4%40% align=center44%17%
Gravis MarketingJuly 13–14, 20181,840± 2.3% align=center47%43%10%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[150] June 11 – July 2, 20181,080± 5.0%46% align=center49%5%
YouGov[151] June 19–22, 2018839 LV41% align=center46%6%6%
996 RV± 3.5%40% align=center42%6%9%
Marist College[152] June 17–21, 2018947± 3.9% align=center49%45%1%5%
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[153] June 18–19, 20181,308± 3.2% align=center48%46%7%
Gravis Marketing[154] May 31 – June 15, 20181,251± 2.8% align=center50%40%10%
Cherry Communications[155] May 25 – June 4, 2018605± 4.0%45% align=center48%5%
Saint Leo University[156] May 25–31, 2018506± 4.5%34% align=center40%8%18%
Morning Consult[157] May 29–30, 20181,199± 3.0%39% align=center40%
Florida Atlantic University[158] May 4–7, 2018728 LV45%45%
1,000 RV± 3.0%40% align=center44%16%
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)[159] April 10–11, 2018661± 3.9% align=center50%44%6%
Gravis Marketing[160] February 26 – March 19, 20182,212± 2.1% align=center44%40%16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC)[161] March 10–13, 2018800± 3.4%46% align=center47%6%
Clearview Research[162] March 1–7, 2018750± 3.6%41% align=center43%16%
SurveyMonkey/Axios[163] February 12 – March 5, 20181,806± 5.0% align=center53%43%4%
Quinnipiac University[164] February 23–26, 20181,156± 3.6% align=center46%42%2%9%
Florida Atlantic University[165] February 23–25, 2018800± 3.6% align=center40%38%22%
Saint Leo University[166] February 18–24, 2018500± 4.5%35% align=center42%9%15%
Gravis Marketing[167] February 1–18, 20181,978± 2.2% align=center44%40%16%
Florida Atlantic University[168] February 1–4, 2018750± 3.7%34% align=center44%22%
University of North Florida[169] January 29 – February 4, 2018429± 4.7% align=center48%42%2%7%
Mason-Dixon[170] January 30 – February 1, 2018625± 4.0% align=center45%44%11%
Dixie Strategies[171] January 9–10, 2018785± 3.5% align=center38%35%27%
Gravis Marketing[172] December 19–24, 20175,778± 1.3% align=center44%39%17%
Saint Leo UniversityNovember 19–24, 2017500± 4.5%32% align=center42%8%18%
Mason-Dixon[173] October 17–19, 2017625± 4.0%44%44%12%
University of North Florida[174] October 11–17, 2017706± 3.4% align=center37%36%7%20%
Cherry Communications[175] September 17–24, 2017615± 4.0%45% align=center47%8%
Saint Leo University[176] September 10–16, 2017500± 4.5%33% align=center35%11%21%
Florida Atlantic University[177] August 24–26, 2017800± 4.0% align=center42%40%18%
Gravis Marketing[178] April 4–10, 20171,243± 2.8% align=center56%28%16%
Gravis Marketing[179] March 28–29, 20171,453± 2.6% align=center52%37%12%
Cherry Communications[180] March 6–14, 2017600± 4.0% align=center48%42%10%
Saint Leo University[181] March 3–11, 2017507± 4.5% align=center39%34%10%17%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-FHA)[182] March 1–5, 2017600± 4.0% align=center46%44%10%
Mason-Dixon[183] February 24–28, 2017625± 4.0% align=center46%41%13%
University of North Florida[184] February 13–26, 2017957± 3.1% align=center44%38%3%12%
Gravis Marketing[185] November 22–25, 20163,250± 2.4% align=center51%38%11%
Public Policy Polling[186] September 4–6, 2016744± 3.6% align=center45%41%14%
Public Policy Polling[187] September 11–13, 2015814± 3.4% align=center46%42%12%
Public Policy Polling[188] March 19–22, 2015923± 3.2% align=center47%43%10%
with Pam Bondi

Initial results and recount

The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. Because Scott's lead over Nelson was less than 0.5% of the vote, an automatic recount was triggered under Florida law.[189] [190] A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities.[191]

Nelson and Scott traded accusations of voter suppression and voter fraud.[192] Two lawsuits were filed by the Scott campaign after the election against the Supervisor of Elections in both Palm Beach and Broward Counties while the Nelson campaign filed one against the secretary of state in Florida. On November 9, the Scott campaign won both of their lawsuits.[193] [194] Notably, election officials in Broward County had to receive police protection after accusations of voter fraud were made by a few members of Congress.[195]

Additionally, a number of mail-in ballots were found in a mail distribution center in the city of Opa-locka three days after the election. The Miami-Dade Elections Department considered the votes uncountable because they had not arrived at the department by the time the polls closed.[196]

The deadline for all ballots to be machine-counted was 3:00 pm EST on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The revised totals triggered a statewide hand-recount of rejected ballots. At least three counties (Broward, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach County) missed the deadline.[197] [198] During machine counting, 846 votes from Hillsborough County were lost, presumably due to a power outage.[199] [197] Machines purchased from Sequoia Voting Systems broke down, creating delays in the count of Palm Beach County votes.[200]

Results

Florida elections officials announced on November 18, 2018, that Scott had prevailed. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast. Nelson then conceded the race to Scott.[201]

By county

Final results from Florida Division of Elections.

CountyRick Scott (Republican)Bill Nelson (Democratic)Other (Write-in)Total
Votes%Votes%Votes%
Alachua40,59935.27% 74,49364.71%200.02%115,112
Baker 8,57981.51%1,94518.48%10.01%10,525
Bay 46,68173.62%16,72326.37%70.01%63,411
Bradford 7,57672.46%2,87927.53%10.01%10,456
Brevard 160,30556.95%121,11243.03%560.02%281,473
Broward211,39730.92% 472,23969.08%00.00%683,636
Calhoun 3,58677.64%1,03322.36%00.00%4,619
Charlotte 52,91661.20%33,52538.78%160.02%86,457
Citrus 48,00867.92%22,66032.06%150.02%70,683
Clay 65,63970.30%27,71829.69%110.01%93,368
Collier 101,26665.06%54,39034.94%60.00%155,662
Columbia 17,23469.65%7,50530.33%60.02%24,745
Desoto 5,50362.31%3,32837.69%00.00%8,831
Dixie 4,44277.06%1,32222.94%00.00%5,764
Duval185,90449.14% 192,38150.85%450.01%378,330
Escambia 75,94758.94%52,89141.05%170.01%128,855
Flagler 31,46759.49%21,41940.49%110.02%52,897
Franklin 3,40462.86%2,01137.14%00.00%5,415
Gadsden6,05130.26% 13,94569.74%10.01%19,997
Gilchrist 5,70377.74%1,63322.26%00.00%7,336
Glades 2,66669.74%1,15630.24%10.03%3,823
Gulf 4,32173.22%1,58026.78%00.00%5,901
Hamilton 2,85663.09%1,67136.91%00.00%4,527
Hardee 4,45569.93%1,91630.07%00.00%6,371
Hendry 5,30459.96%3,54240.04%00.00%8,846
Hernando 49,50161.64%30,79838.35%140.02%80,313
Highlands 26,28266.22%13,39833.76%60.02%39,686
Hillsborough239,64145.96% 281,66154.02%720.01%521,374
Holmes 5,91987.37%85612.63%00.00%6,775
Indian River 44,79860.53%29,19539.45%110.01%74,004
Jackson 10,79167.55%5,18232.44%10.01%15,974
Jefferson 3,69950.48%3,62649.49%20.03%7,327
Lafayette 2,19577.89%62322.11%00.00%2,818
Lake 93,53760.36%61,40239.63%150.01%154,954
Lee 174,31660.27%114,85739.71%410.01%289,214
Leon48,76734.86% 91,09765.12%340.02%139,898
Levy 11,65868.66%5,31931.33%30.02%16,980
Liberty 2,07676.66%63223.34%00.00%2,708
Madison 4,18454.99%3,42545.01%00.00%7,609
Manatee 94,39057.80%68,87742.18%280.02%163,295
Marion 95,59261.81%59,02538.16%440.03%154,661
Martin 46,73360.35%30,69139.63%120.02%77,436
Miami-Dade316,02039.43% 485,49660.57%310.00%801,547
Monroe18,03549.97% 18,05150.02%40.01%36,090
Nassau 31,79573.09%11,70326.90%30.01%43,501
Okaloosa 60,92472.66%22,90227.31%190.02%83,845
Okeechobee 7,72768.84%3,49631.15%10.01%11,224
Orange180,76338.04% 294,30861.94%700.01%475,141
Osceola47,89841.64% 67,12358.35%80.01%115,029
Palm Beach244,85041.58% 344,00858.42%360.01%588,894
Pasco 121,21257.53%89,44742.45%510.02%210,710
Pinellas205,93547.37% 228,71252.60%1270.03%434,774
Polk 138,75156.74%105,74843.24%450.02%244,544
Putnam 18,68966.66%9,34433.33%50.02%28,038
Santa Rosa 56,37474.74%19,04725.25%100.01%75,431
Sarasota 113,58553.94%96,97346.05%350.02%210,593
Seminole97,45748.98% 101,50451.01%310.02%198,992
St. Johns 85,03165.07%45,63834.92%120.01%130,681
St. Lucie59,61248.22% 63,97851.75%340.03%123,624
Sumter 52,86870.92%21,67829.08%30.00%74,549
Suwannee 11,84274.53%4,04425.45%20.01%15,888
Taylor 5,63871.36%2,26328.64%00.00%7,901
Union 3,65075.30%1,19724.70%00.00%4,847
Volusia 125,76255.02%102,81944.98%00.00%228,581
Wakulla 9,32265.69%4,86834.31%00.00%14,190
Walton 22,77675.26%7,48524.73%40.01%30,265
Washington 7,10178.38%1,95921.62%00.00%9,060
Total 4,099,50550.05%4,089,47249.93%1,0280.01%8,190,005

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Scott won 14 of 27 congressional districts.[202]

DistrictNelsonScottRepresentative
32%68%Matt Gaetz
35%65%Neal Dunn
45%55%Ted Yoho
38%62%John Rutherford
65%35%Al Lawson
43%57%Ron DeSantis
Michael Waltz
55%45%Stephanie Murphy
42%58%Bill Posey
54%46%Darren Soto
63%37%Val Demings
35%65%Daniel Webster
44%56%Gus Bilirakis
55%45%Charlie Crist
59%41%Kathy Castor
46%54%Dennis Ross
Ross Spano
46%54%Vern Buchanan
38%62%Tom Rooney
Greg Steube
48%52%Brian Mast
38%62%Francis Rooney
82%18%Alcee Hastings
61%39%Lois Frankel
60%40%Ted Deutch
64%36%Debbie Wasserman Schultz
83%17%Frederica Wilson
42%58%Mario Díaz-Balart
54%46%Carlos Curbelo
Donna Shalala
56%44%Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Analysis

Edison Research exit poll

Demographic subgroupNelsonScottNo
Answer
% of
Voters
Gender
Men4258N/A45
Women5743N/A55
Age
18–24 years old6238N/A5
25–29 years old7327N/A5
30–39 years old6238N/A10
40–49 years old4951N/A12
50–64 years old5050N/A31
65 and older4357N/A37
Race
White4060N/A66
Black9010N/A13
Latino5446N/A15
AsianN/AN/AN/A2
Other6733N/A4
Race by gender
White men3268N/A31
White women4753N/A35
Black men8812N/A6
Black women919N/A8
Latino men4951N/A6
Latina women5842N/A9
Others6634N/A5
Education
High school or less4753N/A20
Some college education5149N/A25
Associate degree4753N/A15
Bachelor's degree4852N/A24
Advanced degree5842N/A16
Education and race
White college graduates4753N/A28
White no college degree3565N/A38
Non-white college graduates6436N/A12
Non-white no college degree7426N/A22
Whites by education and gender
White women with college degrees5842N/A13
White women without college degrees4060N/A22
White men with college degrees3763N/A14
White men without college degrees2773N/A17
Non-whites7030N/A34
Income
Under $30,0006238N/A19
$30,000–49,9995347N/A22
$50,000–99,9995149N/A34
$100,000–199,9994852N/A19
Over $200,000N/AN/AN/A7
Party ID
Democrats928N/A33
Republicans991N/A37
Independents5545N/A30
Party by gender
Democratic men9010N/A12
Democratic women937N/A21
Republican men793N/A19
Republican women1189N/A18
Independent men5050N/A14
Independent women6040N/A16
Ideology
Liberals8911N/A22
Moderates6238N/A39
Conservatives1585N/A39
Marital status
Married4357N/A64
Unmarried5941N/A36
Gender by marital status
Married men3664N/A32
Married women5050N/A31
Unmarried men4852N/A14
Unmarried women6238N/A22
First-time midterm election voter
Yes5842N/A16
No4753N/A84
Most important issue facing the country
Health care7525N/A41
Immigration1783N/A29
Economy2872N/A16
Gun policy7624N/A11
Area type
Urban5644N/A42
Suburban4753N/A50
Rural3763N/A8
Source: CNN[203]

See also

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Schneider . Mike . Florida voter turnout in 2018 buoyed by youth, Hispanics . April 23, 2019 . Associated Press . 29 May 2020.
  2. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/281942-closest-senate-race-florida/ What you should know about the closest U.S. Senate race in Florida history
  3. Web site: Florida to have 2 Republican senators for the first time since the Reconstruction era. 10NEWS. November 18, 2018. 2019-06-25.
  4. Web site: BREAKING: Gov. Rick Scott to launch Senate bid vs. Bill Nelson. April 9, 2018. George. Bennett. The Palm Beach Post. September 26, 2018. September 26, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180926131021/https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/national-govt--politics/today-gov-rick-scott-expected-launch-senate-bid-bill-nelson/iYQor3aQ0bMplv0wsmtyYM/. dead.
  5. Web site: America's Most and Least Popular Senators. July 25, 2018. Cameron. Easley. Morning Consult. October 2, 2018.
  6. Web site: Invitation to a primary? Doubts among Democrats bedevil Sen. Nelson against Scott in 2018. February 15, 2017. Marc. Caputo. Politico. July 20, 2017.
  7. Web site: Trump pushes Rick Scott to run for Senate during Irma recovery visit. September 14, 2017. Nolan D.. McCaskill. Politico. March 5, 2018.
  8. News: Republican Gov. Rick Scott enters Senate race in Florida, setting up marquee contest. April 9, 2018. John. Sean. Wagner. Sullivan. The Washington Post. April 9, 2018.
  9. Web site: America's Most and Least Popular Governors. July 25, 2018. Cameron. Easley. Morning Consult. October 2, 2018.
  10. Web site: TRACKING TRUMP. Morning Consult. August 6, 2018.
  11. Web site: Florida's Senate race shaping up as a clash of titans. October 16, 2017. Marc. Edward-Isaac. Caputo. Dovere. Politico. December 4, 2017.
  12. Web site: Scott running for Senate in epic showdown with Nelson. Matt. Marc. Dixon. Caputo. April 9, 2018. Politico.
  13. Web site: Rick Scott wins GOP primary for Florida's U.S. Senate seat; faces Bill Nelson Nov. 6. August 28, 2018. Gary. Fineout. Treasure Coast Newspapers.
  14. Web site: FEC FORM 2. Fuller. Virginia. January 5, 2018. Federal Election Commission. April 16, 2018.
  15. Web site: Candidates and Races. Florida Department of State. June 27, 2018.
  16. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. June 16, 2014. Alexander. George. Florida Department of State. March 7, 2018.
  17. Web site: Far Right Plans Its Next Moves With a New Energy. August 14, 2017. Alan. Feuer. The New York Times. August 15, 2017.
  18. Web site: Augustus Invictus withdraws from Senate race while strengthening ties to the racist "alt-right" in-crowd. December 7, 2017. Rachel. Janik. Southern Poverty Law Center. February 10, 2018.
  19. Web site: FEC FORM 2. Jones. Lateresa Ann. December 18, 2017. Federal Election Commission. March 6, 2018.
  20. Web site: Candidate Tracking system. February 7, 2017. Lateresa L.A.. Jones. Florida Department of State. June 27, 2018.
  21. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. October 13, 2017. Martin. Mikhail. Florida Department of State. March 7, 2018.
  22. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. February 19, 2018. Florida Department of State. March 7, 2018.
  23. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. June 12, 2017. Joe. Smith. Florida Department of State. June 27, 2018.
  24. Web site: FEC FORM 2. June 21, 2016. Marcia Roberta. Thorne. Federal Election Commission. March 6, 2018.
  25. Web site: FEC FORM 2. December 27, 2017. Marcia Roberta. Thorne. Federal Election Commission. March 6, 2018.
  26. Web site: FEC FORM 2. January 11, 2018. Angela Marie. Walls-Windhauser. Federal Election Commission. October 6, 2018.
  27. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. January 16, 2018. Angela Marie. Walls-Windhauser. Florida Department of State. October 6, 2018.
  28. Web site: A leading Florida political figure rules out another campaign. November 15, 2016. Adam C.. Smith. Tampa Bay Times. November 15, 2016. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20170816233835/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/a-leading-florida-political-figure-rules-out-another-campaign/2302876. August 16, 2017.
  29. Web site: 10 Senate seats that could flip in 2018. November 16, 2016. Ben. Kamisar. The Hill. November 17, 2016.
  30. Web site: Gravis Marketing: Florida 2018 race for Governor and Senator. November 27, 2016. Frank. Torres. Gravis Marketing.
  31. Web site: Here's Richard Corcoran's timeline for governor race. May 4, 2017. Adam C.. Smith. Tampa Bay Times. May 9, 2017. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20170712120238/http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/heres-richard-corcorans-timeline-for-governor-race/2322676. July 12, 2017.
  32. Web site: UNF President John Delaney announces he will retire in 2018. February 27, 2017. Steve. Patterson. The Florida Times-Union. March 2, 2017.
  33. Web site: DeSantis makes it official, enters governor's race. January 5, 2018. Matt. Dixon. Politico. January 5, 2018.
  34. Web site: HULK HOGAN IF I RUN FOR U.S. SENATE I'D WIN BIG!!!. January 18, 2018. TMZ.
  35. Web site: Politics is about timing: David Jolly won't run for elected office in 2018. March 14, 2018. Phil. Ammann. Florida Politics. March 15, 2018.
  36. Web site: Lopez-Cantera says no to Miami run for Congress. August 20, 2017. Patricia. Mazzei. Miami Herald. August 20, 2017.
  37. Web site: GOP Rep. Tom Rooney will not run for Senate in 2016. April 20, 2015. George. Bennett. The Palm Beach Post. November 15, 2016.
  38. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Florida_(August_23_2018)_v3.pdf Gravis Marketing
  39. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Florida_(August_23_2018).pdf Gravis Marketing
  40. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Florida_July_15_2018_(002).pdf Gravis Marketing
  41. http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/Saint-Leo-University-Polling-Institute-Results-on-Florida-Politics-Late-2017.pdf Saint Leo University
  42. http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/December-2016-Poll.pdf Saint Leo University
  43. Web site: Gov. Rick Scott's lone Senate opponent is running for office in 4 other states. August 10, 2018. Ledyard. King. Tallahassee Democrat. October 3, 2018.
  44. Web site: FEC FORM 2. June 6, 2013. Bill. Nelson. Federal Election Commission. March 5, 2018.
  45. Web site: U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson could face primary challenge in state Sen. Randolph Bracy. February 9, 2017. Tia. Mitchell. The Florida Times-Union. February 10, 2017.
  46. Web site: Canova announces rematch against Wasserman Schultz. June 15, 2017. Amy. Sherman. Miami Herald. July 23, 2017.
  47. Web site: Democrat would be district's first black congresswoman if she beats Brian Mast. June 22, 2017. Isadora. Rangel. TC Palm. July 23, 2017.
  48. Web site: FEC FORM 2. January 26, 2017. Tamika. Lyles. Federal Election Commission.
  49. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. March 14, 2018. Randy Alan. White. Florida Department of State. March 20, 2018.
  50. Web site: Another Libertarian quake: Joe Wendt suspends U.S. Senate campaign, citing threats. October 27, 2017. Scott. Powers. Florida Politics. October 29, 2017.
  51. Web site: Libertarian candidate Joe Wendt entering 2018 U.S. Senate race. June 5, 2017. Scott. Powers. Florida Politics. July 23, 2017.
  52. Web site: FEC FORM 2. May 12, 2013. Franklin "Ed". Shoemaker. Federal Election Commission. March 11, 2018.
  53. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. May 15, 2013. Franklin Ed. Shoemaker. Florida Department of State. March 11, 2018.
  54. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. February 7, 2017. Lateresa L.A.. Jones. June 27, 2018.
  55. Web site: The 5 Most Critical US Senate Elections of 2018. December 28, 2017. John A.. Tures. The New York Observer.
  56. Web site: Candidate Tracking system – Florida Division of Elections – Department of State. dos.elections.myflorida.com.
  57. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. April 30, 2018. Michael S.. Levinson. Florida Department of State. October 23, 2018.
  58. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. April 20, 2018. Charles Frederick. Tolbert. Florida Department of State. April 27, 2018.
  59. Web site: FEC FORM 2. March 15, 2018. David Kenneth. Weeks. Federal Election Commission. October 23, 2018.
  60. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. April 30, 2018. David. Weeks. Florida Department of State. October 23, 2018.
  61. Web site: FEC FORM 2. Edward John. Janowski. Federal Election Commission. October 23, 2018.
  62. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. April 17, 2017. Edward John. Janowski. Florida Department of State. October 23, 2018.
  63. Web site: Candidate Tracking System. December 12, 2017. Scott. McCatty. Florida Department of State. October 23, 2018.
  64. Web site: Midterms: Stunning Florida primary result shifts Bill Nelson-Rick Scott Senate race from middle to extremes. September 3, 2018. Ledyard. King. USA Today.
  65. Web site: The fight for Democrat Bill Nelson's Florida Senate seat is this year's most expensive race as Republican Rick Scott pumps in millions of his own cash. August 28, 2018. Jacob. Pramuk. CNBC.
  66. Web site: Republican Rick Scott Wins Florida Senate Seat Over Incumbent Bill Nelson. Jessica. Taylor. November 18, 2018. NPR.
  67. Web site: Rick Scott's campaign ad rebuts Democrats on Medicare fraud scandal – Florida Politics. September 26, 2018. Scott. Powers. Florida Politics. September 29, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180927112810/http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275845-rick-scotts-campaign-out-ad-rebuts-democrats-on-medicare-fraud-scandal. September 27, 2018. live.
  68. Web site: Democrats: Medicare fraud is 'fungus' Scott will never get rid of. August 30, 2018. Alexandra. Marc. Glorioso. Caputo. Politico. September 29, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180903003848/https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2018/08/30/democrats-medicare-fraud-is-fungus-scott-will-never-get-rid-of-573155. September 3, 2018. live.
  69. Web site: Bill Nelson uses campaign consultants; he doesn't steal from Medicare or Social Security. August 16, 2018. Katie. Akin. PolitiFact. September 29, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180816154830/https://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2018/aug/16/rick-scott/nelson-wasnt-paying-payroll-taxes-because-he-didnt/. August 16, 2018. live.
  70. Web site: Gov. Rick Scott's Pants on Fire statement that Sen. Bill Nelson is a socialist. September 27, 2018. Amy. Sherman. PolitiFact. September 29, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180927130437/https://www.politifact.com/florida/statements/2018/sep/27/rick-scott/gov-rick-scotts-ridiculous-statement-sen-bill-nels/. September 27, 2018. live.
  71. Web site: The Florida Senate Race Is Already About Guns. February 28, 2018. Jim. Newell. Slate. March 24, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180224055259/https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/02/the-florida-senate-race-is-already-about-guns.html. February 24, 2018. live.
  72. Web site: In Florida, officials ban term 'climate change'. March 8, 2015. Tristram. Korten. Miami Herald. October 25, 2018.
  73. Web site: How Red and Green Slime (Really) Could Swing Florida's Senate Race. October 14, 2018. Michael. Grunwald. Politico. October 25, 2018.
  74. Web site: Once eager to tout Trump friendship, Rick Scott now plays it down. April 27, 2018. Alex. Leary. Tampa Bay Times. October 2, 2018.
  75. Web site: In Florida Senate race, Rick Scott treads carefully around Trump. August 26, 2018. John. Lissette. Verhovek. Rodriguez. ABC News. October 2, 2018.
  76. Web site: Hurricane Michael barrels into Florida races. October 12, 2018. Max. Greenwood. The Hill. October 25, 2018.
  77. Web site: Going on 76, is Senator Bill Nelson too old to govern?. Skyler. Swisher. sun-sentinel.com. September 26, 2018 .
  78. Web site: 2018 Senate Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  79. Web site: 2018 Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 13, 2021.
  80. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Senate. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2018-07-27.
  81. News: 2018 Election Calendar and Results . The New York Times . January 23, 2018 . January 24, 2018.
  82. Web site: 2018 Senate Power Rankings. . July 10, 2018.
  83. Web site: Key Races: Senate. 2018-07-27.
  84. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2018. RealClearPolitics. July 15, 2018.
  85. News: Daily Kos Elections 2018 race ratings. Daily Kos. 2018-08-18.
  86. Web site: Who wins 2018? Predictions for Every House & Senate Election . POLITICO . September 8, 2018.
  87. Web site: Forecasting the race for the Senate. FiveThirtyEight. September 11, 2018 . October 24, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105072720/https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/ . November 5, 2018 . live.
  88. Web site: Campaign finance data. July 27, 2018.
  89. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ExmsCdRQYGvT7jRxcQx5NZlr7Gq40nWD/view The Trafalgar Group (R)
  90. https://web.archive.org/web/20181106214819/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  91. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenCFO_November04_UI8E.pdf St. Pete Polls
  92. https://web.archive.org/web/20181105225346/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  93. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl11052018_frqt85.pdf Quinnipiac University
  94. https://www.emerson.edu/news-events/emerson-college-today/final-emerson-battleground-polls-finds-democratic-momentum-florida-nevada-south-dakota-arizona-republicans-poised-take-missouri-0 Emerson College
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  96. https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Tables_Midterms_05Nov2018.pdf Research Co.
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  99. https://archive.today/20181104183155/https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  100. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-NOS-and-Tables_Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_1811031351.pdf Marist College
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  106. https://consumerenergyalliance.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Florida-Energy-Production-Tables.pdf MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance
  107. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Hu-UwjPegxvRtrZ9R773ccII--97u7gv/view The Trafalgar Group (R)
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  109. https://www.alliancenrfpoll.com/ HarrisX
  110. http://www.cygn.al/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/42503-Cygnal-FL-Toplines-3.pdf Cygnal (R)
  111. http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2018/images/11/01/rel2_fl.pdf CNN/SSRS
  112. https://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/10_30_2018_marginals.pdf Suffolk University
  113. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-flsen-3.html NYT Upshot/Siena College
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  116. https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-10/october_2018_state_topline_-_florida_october.pdf Ipsos
  117. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Florida_October_23_2018.pdf Gravis Marketing
  118. http://media.graytvinc.com/documents/GRAY_FL_October_Survey.pdf Strategic Research Associates
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  121. https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2018/competitive-us-senate-and-governor-races-in-florida.php Florida Atlantic University
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  126. https://rickscottforflorida.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FL-Statewide-Survey-n2200.pdf OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott)
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  128. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276887-florida-southern-college-poll-narrow-lead-for-andrew-gillum Florida Southern College
  129. http://files.kff.org/attachment/Topline-KFF-Election-Tracking-Poll-Health-Care-in-the-2018-Midterms Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS
  130. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_GovSenate_September30_B83R.pdf St. Pete Polls
  131. http://www.protectourcare.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/FloridaResults-Oct-1-2018.pdf Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)
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  133. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000166-3bd4-d20d-a57f-bfd497e60001 Mason-Dixon
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  135. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/276094-florida-chamber-poll-has-bill-nelson-edging-rick-scott Cherry Communications
  136. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/NBC-News_Marist-Poll_FL-Adults-and-Registered-Voters-and-Likely-Voters_NOS-and-Tables_1809241353.pdf Marist College
  137. http://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/2018FLFall.aspx University of North Florida
  138. https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2018/tight-florida-us-senate-and-governor-races.php Florida Atlantic University
  139. https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/election-data-CA-FL-TX-NV-AZ Ipsos
  140. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2018/florida/election_2018_florida_senate Rasmussen Reports
  141. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=dcd5e5ce-0217-45a6-8e38-0585e012ca8b SurveyUSA
  142. https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/fl/fl09052018_fjya13.pdf Quinnipiac University
  143. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Florida_(August_30_2018).pdf Gravis Marketing
  144. https://www.scribd.com/document/387419956/FL-Gov-FL-Sen-PPP-D-for-Christian-Ulvert-August-2018 Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)
  145. http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2018_State_GEN_Senate_August30_NJ66.pdf St. Pete Polls
  146. https://business.fau.edu/images/business/economics/departments-economics-pages/business-economics-polling-initiative/bepi-polls/files/2018-08-21_Toplines_FINAL.pdf Florida Atlantic University
  147. http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Poll-Report_August_Florida-Results-Excerpt.pdf Saint Leo University
  148. https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-ed7b-d428-a7fe-fdffcb280001 Mason-Dixon
  149. https://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/bepi-polls-2018/florida-primaries-heat-up.php Florida Atlantic University
  150. https://drive.google.com/file/d/1aerd3_1pJ276A7rLNRQ_Y3ifiUtSraan/view SurveyMonkey/Axios
  151. https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/nbv3bzmxq0/cbs_20180624_FL.pdf YouGov
  152. http://media1.s-nbcnews.com/i/today/z_creative/Toss%20Up%20Questions_NBC%20News_Marist%20Poll_Florida%20Annotated%20Questionnaire_June%202018.pdf Marist College
  153. http://floridapolitics.com/archives/266968-poll-bill-nelson-holds-slim-lead-over-rick-scott Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)
  154. http://orlando-politics.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Florida-June-12-2018-v4.pdf Gravis Marketing
  155. https://floridapolitics.com/archives/265855-poll-rick-scott-maintains-edge-over-bill-nelson Cherry Communications
  156. http://polls.saintleo.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/Florida-Politics-Results-in-Detail_May-2018.pdf Saint Leo University
  157. https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/11/florida-senate-scott-nelson-poll-635358 Morning Consult
  158. https://business.fau.edu/images/business/economics/departments-economics-pages/business-economics-polling-initiative/bepi-polls/files/2018-05-8_BEPI_Polls_Toplines.pdf Florida Atlantic University
  159. https://www.scribd.com/document/376146714/Survey-of-Florida-politics Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)
  160. https://www.scribd.com/document/374399185/Gravis-Marketing-March-Florida-Poll Gravis Marketing
  161. http://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/FL-NR-PAC-Survey-Memo-03-29-18.pdf McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC)
  162. https://www.scribd.com/document/373610821/Results-of-Florida-poll-from-Clearview-Research Clearview Research
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