Election Name: | 2018 United States Senate election in Florida |
Country: | Florida |
Type: | presidential |
Ongoing: | no |
Previous Election: | 2012 United States Senate election in Florida |
Previous Year: | 2012 |
Next Election: | 2024 United States Senate election in Florida |
Next Year: | 2024 |
Election Date: | November 6, 2018 |
Turnout: | 52.0% [1] |
Image1: | File:Official Portrait of Senator Rick Scott (cropped).jpg |
Nominee1: | Rick Scott |
Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
Popular Vote1: | 4,099,505 |
Percentage1: | |
Nominee2: | Bill Nelson |
Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
Popular Vote2: | 4,089,472 |
Map Size: | 300px |
U.S. Senator | |
Before Election: | Bill Nelson |
Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
After Election: | Rick Scott |
After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2018 United States Senate election in Florida was held on November 6, 2018, alongside a gubernatorial election, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives and other state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was narrowly defeated by Republican Governor Rick Scott. The election was the closest Senate race in the state's history.[2]
This was one of ten Democratic-held Senate seats up for election in a state won by Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. The results showed that Nelson was narrowly trailing Scott, but the margin remained below 0.5%, triggering an automatic recount under Florida law. A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities. Following the recount, Florida elections officials confirmed Scott's victory on November 18, 2018. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast, or 0.12%. Both in terms of raw vote margin and by percentage of difference, this was the closest Senate election in the 2018 cycle. Scott's victory marked the first time since the Reconstruction era in 1875 that Republicans have held both Senate seats in Florida.[3]
Incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson sought re-election in the 2018 U.S. Senate election in Florida. The election was expected to be a key race in determining which party would control the U.S. Senate in 2019.[4]
As of the second quarter of 2018, Nelson had a 44%–34% approval rating among his constituents.[5] Despite having won re-election in 2012 by a 13% margin, Nelson was considered potentially vulnerable; he had been the only statewide elected Democrat in Florida since 2011, and his previous opponents, Connie Mack IV and Katherine Harris, were seen as much weaker challengers than Scott. Additionally, he was one of 10 incumbent Democratic senators running in states that had been carried by Donald Trump in 2016. Nelson was described as a "low-key centrist" that might not be able to energize progressive voters.[6]
After being encouraged by President Trump to enter the Senate race,[7] Republican governor of Florida Rick Scott announced his candidacy on April 9, 2018.[8] As of the first quarter of 2018, Scott held a 54%–35% approval rating[9] among his constituents, with a majority of Florida voters believing the state was moving in the right direction under Scott's administration. Republican President Donald Trump also held a positive approval rating of 49%–47% in Florida as of August 2018.[10] Trump had won the state in 2016 by 1.2% over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. Scott had put more than $86 million of his own money into his successful 2010 and 2014 gubernatorial bids.[11]
The Republican primary was considered merely a formality, as Governor Scott's lone challenger was a perennial candidate who was running for Senate seats in eight other Republican primaries across the country. No other notable Republicans entered the race before or after Scott announced his candidacy.
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Rocky | Rick Scott | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gravis Marketing[38] | August 21–25, 2018 | 579 | ± 4.1% | 12% | align=center | 73% | 15% | |
Gravis Marketing[39] | August 21–22, 2018 | 321 | ± 5.5% | 12% | align=center | 73% | 15% | |
Gravis Marketing[40] | July 13–14, 2018 | 905 | ± 3.3% | 16% | align=center | 74% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Ron DeSantis | Invictus | David Jolly | Carlos | Tom Rooney | Rick Scott | Marcia R. Thorne | Other | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Saint Leo University[41] | November 19–24, 2017 | 166 | – | – | 1% | – | – | 8% | align=center | 54% | 1% | 4% | 33% | |
Saint Leo University[42] | November 27–30, 2016 | 138 | – | 3% | – | 6% | 3% | 3% | align=center | 41% | – | 11% | 33% |
As both of Senator Nelson's primary opponents failed to qualify for the ballot, no Democratic primary was held.[43]
According to The Cook Political Report, the race was one of the 10 most competitive U.S. Senate races in the nation.[64] It was also described as the most expensive U.S. Senate race in the country.[65] [66]
Scott's involvement in a large Medicare fraud case stirred controversy during the general election campaign.[67] [68] Scott responded with ads accusing Nelson of having cut Medicare benefits and stolen from Medicare; fact-checkers found that both of Scott's assertions were "mostly false."[69] [67] During the campaign, Scott characterize[s] Nelson as a "socialist"; PolitiFact described the assertion as "pants-on-fire" false.[70]
Gun control was a key issue in this race. The election came less than nine months after the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, the deadliest school shooting in American history. Nelson also mentioned the Orlando nightclub shooting that occurred in June 2016 and killed 49 people, asserting that "nothing was done" by Scott's administration. In the wake of Stoneman Douglas, Scott raised the age to purchase a gun from 18 to 21, set a three-day waiting period to purchase assault-style weapons, and banned bump stocks—moves that Nelson described as "doing the bare...minimum". The National Rifle Association of America opposed Scott's legislation.[71]
Environmental issues also took on a prominent role in the race. Scott and his administration had been heavily criticized for weakening regulations designed to protect the environment, even going as far as to instruct the FDEP not to use the words "climate change" or "global warming" in official reports.[72] Because of this, Scott was blamed for the state's worsening algae blooms, even being dubbed "Red Tide Rick" on social media. Scott blamed the toxic blooms on Nelson and on Congress' general inefficiency.[73]
During the campaign, Scott sought to avoid mentioning President Trump and at times criticized or distanced himself from actions of the Trump administration. Prior to the campaign, he had used his friendship with Trump to boost his profile, had been an early and vocal supporter of Trump in 2016,[74] [75] and reportedly spoke to President Trump every one or two weeks.[74] Trump endorsed Scott in his Senate bid.[75]
Both Nelson's and Scott's responses to Hurricanes Irma and Michael (which made landfall in September 2017 and October 2018, respectively) were closely watched during the campaign season.[76]
Scott made Nelson's age an issue in the campaign.[77]
Source | Ranking | As of | |
---|---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[78] | October 26, 2018 | ||
Inside Elections[79] | November 1, 2018 | ||
Sabato's Crystal Ball[80] | November 5, 2018 | ||
NYT[81] | November 5, 2018 | ||
Fox News[82] | November 5, 2018 | ||
CNN[83] | November 5, 2018 | ||
RealClearPolitics[84] | November 5, 2018 | ||
Daily Kos[85] | November 5, 2018 | ||
Politico[86] | November 5, 2018 | ||
FiveThirtyEight[87] | November 5, 2018 |
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand | ||||
Rick Scott (R) | align="right" | $68,801,011 | align="right" | $66,496,248 | align="right" | $2,304,762 | |
Bill Nelson (D) Incumbent | align="right" | $28,294,713 | align="right" | $25,482,421 | align="right" | $3,806,614 | |
Source: Federal Election Commission[88] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Bill Nelson (D) | Rick Scott (R) | Other | Undecided | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R)[89] | November 4–5, 2018 | 1,484 | ± 2.5% | 47% | align=center | 49% | – | 4% | |
HarrisX[90] | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 48% | – | – | ||
St. Pete Polls[91] | November 3–4, 2018 | 3,088 | ± 1.8% | align=center | 50% | 46% | – | 4% | |
HarrisX[92] | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 49% | – | – | |
Quinnipiac University[93] | October 29 – November 4, 2018 | 1,142 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 51% | 44% | 0% | 5% | |
Emerson College[94] | November 1–3, 2018 | 784 | ± 3.7% | align=center | 50% | 45% | 3% | 3% | |
HarrisX[95] | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 47% | – | – | |
Research Co.[96] | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | align=center | 47% | 46% | – | 7% | |
Change Research (D-Reason to Believe PAC)[97] | November 1–2, 2018 | 1,236 | – | align=center | 50% | 48% | – | – | |
St. Pete Polls[98] | November 1–2, 2018 | 2,733 | ± 1.9% | 48% | align=center | 49% | – | 3% | |
HarrisX[99] | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | align=center | 48% | – | – | |
Marist College[100] | October 30 – November 2, 2018 | 595 LV | ± 5.0% | align=center | 50% | 46% | <1% | 4% | |
917 RV | ± 4.1% | align=center | 50% | 45% | <1% | 5% | |||
Gravis Marketing[101] | October 29 – November 2, 2018 | 753 | ± 3.6% | align=center | 50% | 47% | – | 4% | |
HarrisX[102] | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 50% | – | – | |
St. Pete Polls[103] | October 30–31, 2018 | 2,470 | ± 2.0% | align=center | 49% | 47% | – | 3% | |
Targoz Market Research[104] | October 28–31, 2018 | 558 | – | 45% | align=center | 49% | – | 6% | |
HarrisX[105] | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 48% | – | – | |
MWR Research/Consumer Energy Alliance[106] | October 25–31, 2020 | 1,005 | – | 41% | align=center | 43% | – | 17% | |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[107] | October 29–30, 2018 | 2,543 | ± 1.9% | align=center | 49% | 47% | – | 4% | |
Vox Populi Polling[108] | October 27–30, 2018 | 696 | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – | – | ||
HarrisX[109] | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 43% | align=center | 44% | – | – | |
Cygnal (R)[110] | October 27–29, 2018 | 495 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 50% | 48% | – | 2% | |
CNN/SSRS[111] | October 24–29, 2018 | 781 LV | ± 4.3% | align=center | 49% | 47% | 0% | 2% | |
887 RV | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 0% | 5% | ||||
Suffolk University[112] | October 25–28, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 45% | 43% | – | 10% | |
NYT Upshot/Siena College[113] | October 23–27, 2018 | 737 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 48% | 44% | – | 8% | |
University of North Florida[114] | October 23–26, 2018 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | align=center | 47% | 46% | <1% | 7% | |
YouGov[115] | October 23–26, 2018 | 991 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | 1% | 6% | ||
Ipsos[116] | October 17–25, 2018 | 1,069 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 49% | 44% | 3% | 4% | |
Gravis Marketing[117] | October 22–23, 2018 | 773 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 49% | 45% | – | 6% | |
Strategic Research Associates[118] | October 16–23, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 46% | 45% | – | 9% | |
Saint Leo University[119] | October 16–22, 2018 | 698 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 47% | 38% | 6% | 9% | |
St. Pete Polls[120] | October 20–21, 2018 | 1,575 | ± 2.5% | 48% | align=center | 49% | – | 3% | |
Florida Atlantic University[121] | October 18–21, 2018 | 704 | ± 3.6% | 41% | align=center | 42% | 4% | 13% | |
SurveyUSA[122] | October 18–21, 2018 | 665 | ± 5.0% | align=center | 49% | 41% | 4% | 6% | |
Quinnipiac University[123] | October 17–21, 2018 | 1,161 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 52% | 46% | 0% | 2% | |
Schroth, Eldon and Associates (D)[124] | October 17–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 47% | – | 9% | |
CNN/SSRS[125] | October 16–20, 2018 | 759 LV | ± 4.2% | align=center | 50% | 45% | 0% | 3% | |
872 RV | ± 3.9% | align=center | 49% | 45% | 0% | 4% | |||
OnMessage Inc. (R-Scott)[126] | October 14–18, 2018 | 2,200 | ± 2.1% | 46% | align=center | 51% | – | 3% | |
St. Pete Polls[127] | October 15–16, 2018 | 1,974 | ± 2.2% | 47% | align=center | 49% | – | 4% | |
Florida Southern College[128] | October 1–5, 2018 | 476 | ± 4.5% | 44% | align=center | 46% | 6% | 4% | |
Kaiser Family Foundation/SSRS[129] | September 19 – October 2, 2018 | 522 | ± 6.0% | align=center | 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% | |
St. Pete Polls[130] | September 29–30, 2018 | 2,313 | ± 2.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% | ||
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care)[131] | September 28–30, 2018 | 779 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 48% | 44% | – | 9% | |
Strategic Research Associates[132] | September 17–30, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 45% | 44% | – | 11% | |
Mason-Dixon[133] | September 24–27, 2018 | 815 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 47% | 46% | – | 7% | |
Quinnipiac University[134] | September 20–24, 2018 | 888 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 53% | 46% | 0% | 1% | |
Cherry Communications[135] | September 19–24, 2018 | 622 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 48% | 46% | – | – | |
Marist College[136] | September 16–20, 2018 | 600 LV | ± 4.7% | align=center | 48% | 45% | 1% | 6% | |
829 RV | ± 4.0% | align=center | 48% | 43% | 1% | 7% | |||
University of North Florida[137] | September 17–19, 2018 | 603 | – | 45% | 45% | 1% | 9% | ||
Florida Atlantic University[138] | September 13–16, 2018 | 850 | ± 3.3% | 41% | align=center | 42% | 5% | 11% | |
Ipsos[139] | September 5–12, 2018 | 1,000 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 46% | 4% | 6% | |
Rasmussen Reports[140] | September 10–11, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 45% | 44% | 5% | 6% | |
SurveyUSA[141] | September 7–9, 2018 | 634 | ± 5.3% | 44% | align=center | 46% | 4% | 7% | |
Quinnipiac University[142] | August 30 – September 3, 2018 | 785 | ± 4.3% | 49% | 49% | 0% | 2% | ||
Gravis Marketing[143] | August 29–30, 2018 | 1,225 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 47% | – | 6% | ||
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[144] | August 29–30, 2018 | 743 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 46% | 45% | – | 8% | |
St. Pete Polls[145] | August 29–30, 2018 | 1,755 | ± 2.3% | 47% | 47% | – | 5% | ||
Florida Atlantic University[146] | August 16–20, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 39% | align=center | 45% | – | 17% | |
Saint Leo University[147] | August 10–16, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 36% | align=center | 40% | 8% | 15% | |
Mason-Dixon[148] | July 24–25, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | align=center | 47% | – | 9% | |
Florida Atlantic University[149] | July 20–21, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 40% | align=center | 44% | – | 17% | |
Gravis Marketing | July 13–14, 2018 | 1,840 | ± 2.3% | align=center | 47% | 43% | – | 10% | |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[150] | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,080 | ± 5.0% | 46% | align=center | 49% | – | 5% | |
YouGov[151] | June 19–22, 2018 | 839 LV | – | 41% | align=center | 46% | 6% | 6% | |
996 RV | ± 3.5% | 40% | align=center | 42% | 6% | 9% | |||
Marist College[152] | June 17–21, 2018 | 947 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 49% | 45% | 1% | 5% | |
Public Policy Polling (D-EDGE Comms.)[153] | June 18–19, 2018 | 1,308 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 48% | 46% | – | 7% | |
Gravis Marketing[154] | May 31 – June 15, 2018 | 1,251 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 50% | 40% | – | 10% | |
Cherry Communications[155] | May 25 – June 4, 2018 | 605 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 48% | – | 5% | |
Saint Leo University[156] | May 25–31, 2018 | 506 | ± 4.5% | 34% | align=center | 40% | 8% | 18% | |
Morning Consult[157] | May 29–30, 2018 | 1,199 | ± 3.0% | 39% | align=center | 40% | – | – | |
Florida Atlantic University[158] | May 4–7, 2018 | 728 LV | – | 45% | 45% | – | – | ||
1,000 RV | ± 3.0% | 40% | align=center | 44% | – | 16% | |||
Public Policy Polling (D-Levine)[159] | April 10–11, 2018 | 661 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 50% | 44% | – | 6% | |
Gravis Marketing[160] | February 26 – March 19, 2018 | 2,212 | ± 2.1% | align=center | 44% | 40% | – | 16% | |
McLaughlin & Associates (R-NR PAC)[161] | March 10–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | align=center | 47% | – | 6% | |
Clearview Research[162] | March 1–7, 2018 | 750 | ± 3.6% | 41% | align=center | 43% | – | 16% | |
SurveyMonkey/Axios[163] | February 12 – March 5, 2018 | 1,806 | ± 5.0% | align=center | 53% | 43% | – | 4% | |
Quinnipiac University[164] | February 23–26, 2018 | 1,156 | ± 3.6% | align=center | 46% | 42% | 2% | 9% | |
Florida Atlantic University[165] | February 23–25, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.6% | align=center | 40% | 38% | – | 22% | |
Saint Leo University[166] | February 18–24, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 35% | align=center | 42% | 9% | 15% | |
Gravis Marketing[167] | February 1–18, 2018 | 1,978 | ± 2.2% | align=center | 44% | 40% | – | 16% | |
Florida Atlantic University[168] | February 1–4, 2018 | 750 | ± 3.7% | 34% | align=center | 44% | – | 22% | |
University of North Florida[169] | January 29 – February 4, 2018 | 429 | ± 4.7% | align=center | 48% | 42% | 2% | 7% | |
Mason-Dixon[170] | January 30 – February 1, 2018 | 625 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 45% | 44% | – | 11% | |
Dixie Strategies[171] | January 9–10, 2018 | 785 | ± 3.5% | align=center | 38% | 35% | – | 27% | |
Gravis Marketing[172] | December 19–24, 2017 | 5,778 | ± 1.3% | align=center | 44% | 39% | – | 17% | |
Saint Leo University | November 19–24, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 32% | align=center | 42% | 8% | 18% | |
Mason-Dixon[173] | October 17–19, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 44% | – | 12% | ||
University of North Florida[174] | October 11–17, 2017 | 706 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 37% | 36% | 7% | 20% | |
Cherry Communications[175] | September 17–24, 2017 | 615 | ± 4.0% | 45% | align=center | 47% | – | 8% | |
Saint Leo University[176] | September 10–16, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 33% | align=center | 35% | 11% | 21% | |
Florida Atlantic University[177] | August 24–26, 2017 | 800 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 42% | 40% | – | 18% | |
Gravis Marketing[178] | April 4–10, 2017 | 1,243 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 56% | 28% | – | 16% | |
Gravis Marketing[179] | March 28–29, 2017 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | align=center | 52% | 37% | – | 12% | |
Cherry Communications[180] | March 6–14, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 48% | 42% | – | 10% | |
Saint Leo University[181] | March 3–11, 2017 | 507 | ± 4.5% | align=center | 39% | 34% | 10% | 17% | |
Public Opinion Strategies (R-FHA)[182] | March 1–5, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 46% | 44% | – | 10% | |
Mason-Dixon[183] | February 24–28, 2017 | 625 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 46% | 41% | – | 13% | |
University of North Florida[184] | February 13–26, 2017 | 957 | ± 3.1% | align=center | 44% | 38% | 3% | 12% | |
Gravis Marketing[185] | November 22–25, 2016 | 3,250 | ± 2.4% | align=center | 51% | 38% | – | 11% | |
Public Policy Polling[186] | September 4–6, 2016 | 744 | ± 3.6% | align=center | 45% | 41% | – | 14% | |
Public Policy Polling[187] | September 11–13, 2015 | 814 | ± 3.4% | align=center | 46% | 42% | – | 12% | |
Public Policy Polling[188] | March 19–22, 2015 | 923 | ± 3.2% | align=center | 47% | 43% | – | 10% |
The results of the race were in dispute for 12 days following the election. Because Scott's lead over Nelson was less than 0.5% of the vote, an automatic recount was triggered under Florida law.[189] [190] A controversial recount ensued, with both campaigns claiming irregularities.[191]
Nelson and Scott traded accusations of voter suppression and voter fraud.[192] Two lawsuits were filed by the Scott campaign after the election against the Supervisor of Elections in both Palm Beach and Broward Counties while the Nelson campaign filed one against the secretary of state in Florida. On November 9, the Scott campaign won both of their lawsuits.[193] [194] Notably, election officials in Broward County had to receive police protection after accusations of voter fraud were made by a few members of Congress.[195]
Additionally, a number of mail-in ballots were found in a mail distribution center in the city of Opa-locka three days after the election. The Miami-Dade Elections Department considered the votes uncountable because they had not arrived at the department by the time the polls closed.[196]
The deadline for all ballots to be machine-counted was 3:00 pm EST on Thursday, November 15, 2018. The revised totals triggered a statewide hand-recount of rejected ballots. At least three counties (Broward, Hillsborough, and Palm Beach County) missed the deadline.[197] [198] During machine counting, 846 votes from Hillsborough County were lost, presumably due to a power outage.[199] [197] Machines purchased from Sequoia Voting Systems broke down, creating delays in the count of Palm Beach County votes.[200]
Florida elections officials announced on November 18, 2018, that Scott had prevailed. Scott received 50.05% of the vote, while Nelson received 49.93%; the margin of victory was 10,033 votes out of 8.19 million votes cast. Nelson then conceded the race to Scott.[201]
Final results from Florida Division of Elections.
County | Rick Scott (Republican) | Bill Nelson (Democratic) | Other (Write-in) | Total | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Votes | % | Votes | % | Votes | % | |||
Alachua | 40,599 | 35.27% | 74,493 | 64.71% | 20 | 0.02% | 115,112 | |
Baker | 8,579 | 81.51% | 1,945 | 18.48% | 1 | 0.01% | 10,525 | |
Bay | 46,681 | 73.62% | 16,723 | 26.37% | 7 | 0.01% | 63,411 | |
Bradford | 7,576 | 72.46% | 2,879 | 27.53% | 1 | 0.01% | 10,456 | |
Brevard | 160,305 | 56.95% | 121,112 | 43.03% | 56 | 0.02% | 281,473 | |
Broward | 211,397 | 30.92% | 472,239 | 69.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 683,636 | |
Calhoun | 3,586 | 77.64% | 1,033 | 22.36% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,619 | |
Charlotte | 52,916 | 61.20% | 33,525 | 38.78% | 16 | 0.02% | 86,457 | |
Citrus | 48,008 | 67.92% | 22,660 | 32.06% | 15 | 0.02% | 70,683 | |
Clay | 65,639 | 70.30% | 27,718 | 29.69% | 11 | 0.01% | 93,368 | |
Collier | 101,266 | 65.06% | 54,390 | 34.94% | 6 | 0.00% | 155,662 | |
Columbia | 17,234 | 69.65% | 7,505 | 30.33% | 6 | 0.02% | 24,745 | |
Desoto | 5,503 | 62.31% | 3,328 | 37.69% | 0 | 0.00% | 8,831 | |
Dixie | 4,442 | 77.06% | 1,322 | 22.94% | 0 | 0.00% | 5,764 | |
Duval | 185,904 | 49.14% | 192,381 | 50.85% | 45 | 0.01% | 378,330 | |
Escambia | 75,947 | 58.94% | 52,891 | 41.05% | 17 | 0.01% | 128,855 | |
Flagler | 31,467 | 59.49% | 21,419 | 40.49% | 11 | 0.02% | 52,897 | |
Franklin | 3,404 | 62.86% | 2,011 | 37.14% | 0 | 0.00% | 5,415 | |
Gadsden | 6,051 | 30.26% | 13,945 | 69.74% | 1 | 0.01% | 19,997 | |
Gilchrist | 5,703 | 77.74% | 1,633 | 22.26% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,336 | |
Glades | 2,666 | 69.74% | 1,156 | 30.24% | 1 | 0.03% | 3,823 | |
Gulf | 4,321 | 73.22% | 1,580 | 26.78% | 0 | 0.00% | 5,901 | |
Hamilton | 2,856 | 63.09% | 1,671 | 36.91% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,527 | |
Hardee | 4,455 | 69.93% | 1,916 | 30.07% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,371 | |
Hendry | 5,304 | 59.96% | 3,542 | 40.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 8,846 | |
Hernando | 49,501 | 61.64% | 30,798 | 38.35% | 14 | 0.02% | 80,313 | |
Highlands | 26,282 | 66.22% | 13,398 | 33.76% | 6 | 0.02% | 39,686 | |
Hillsborough | 239,641 | 45.96% | 281,661 | 54.02% | 72 | 0.01% | 521,374 | |
Holmes | 5,919 | 87.37% | 856 | 12.63% | 0 | 0.00% | 6,775 | |
Indian River | 44,798 | 60.53% | 29,195 | 39.45% | 11 | 0.01% | 74,004 | |
Jackson | 10,791 | 67.55% | 5,182 | 32.44% | 1 | 0.01% | 15,974 | |
Jefferson | 3,699 | 50.48% | 3,626 | 49.49% | 2 | 0.03% | 7,327 | |
Lafayette | 2,195 | 77.89% | 623 | 22.11% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,818 | |
Lake | 93,537 | 60.36% | 61,402 | 39.63% | 15 | 0.01% | 154,954 | |
Lee | 174,316 | 60.27% | 114,857 | 39.71% | 41 | 0.01% | 289,214 | |
Leon | 48,767 | 34.86% | 91,097 | 65.12% | 34 | 0.02% | 139,898 | |
Levy | 11,658 | 68.66% | 5,319 | 31.33% | 3 | 0.02% | 16,980 | |
Liberty | 2,076 | 76.66% | 632 | 23.34% | 0 | 0.00% | 2,708 | |
Madison | 4,184 | 54.99% | 3,425 | 45.01% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,609 | |
Manatee | 94,390 | 57.80% | 68,877 | 42.18% | 28 | 0.02% | 163,295 | |
Marion | 95,592 | 61.81% | 59,025 | 38.16% | 44 | 0.03% | 154,661 | |
Martin | 46,733 | 60.35% | 30,691 | 39.63% | 12 | 0.02% | 77,436 | |
Miami-Dade | 316,020 | 39.43% | 485,496 | 60.57% | 31 | 0.00% | 801,547 | |
Monroe | 18,035 | 49.97% | 18,051 | 50.02% | 4 | 0.01% | 36,090 | |
Nassau | 31,795 | 73.09% | 11,703 | 26.90% | 3 | 0.01% | 43,501 | |
Okaloosa | 60,924 | 72.66% | 22,902 | 27.31% | 19 | 0.02% | 83,845 | |
Okeechobee | 7,727 | 68.84% | 3,496 | 31.15% | 1 | 0.01% | 11,224 | |
Orange | 180,763 | 38.04% | 294,308 | 61.94% | 70 | 0.01% | 475,141 | |
Osceola | 47,898 | 41.64% | 67,123 | 58.35% | 8 | 0.01% | 115,029 | |
Palm Beach | 244,850 | 41.58% | 344,008 | 58.42% | 36 | 0.01% | 588,894 | |
Pasco | 121,212 | 57.53% | 89,447 | 42.45% | 51 | 0.02% | 210,710 | |
Pinellas | 205,935 | 47.37% | 228,712 | 52.60% | 127 | 0.03% | 434,774 | |
Polk | 138,751 | 56.74% | 105,748 | 43.24% | 45 | 0.02% | 244,544 | |
Putnam | 18,689 | 66.66% | 9,344 | 33.33% | 5 | 0.02% | 28,038 | |
Santa Rosa | 56,374 | 74.74% | 19,047 | 25.25% | 10 | 0.01% | 75,431 | |
Sarasota | 113,585 | 53.94% | 96,973 | 46.05% | 35 | 0.02% | 210,593 | |
Seminole | 97,457 | 48.98% | 101,504 | 51.01% | 31 | 0.02% | 198,992 | |
St. Johns | 85,031 | 65.07% | 45,638 | 34.92% | 12 | 0.01% | 130,681 | |
St. Lucie | 59,612 | 48.22% | 63,978 | 51.75% | 34 | 0.03% | 123,624 | |
Sumter | 52,868 | 70.92% | 21,678 | 29.08% | 3 | 0.00% | 74,549 | |
Suwannee | 11,842 | 74.53% | 4,044 | 25.45% | 2 | 0.01% | 15,888 | |
Taylor | 5,638 | 71.36% | 2,263 | 28.64% | 0 | 0.00% | 7,901 | |
Union | 3,650 | 75.30% | 1,197 | 24.70% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,847 | |
Volusia | 125,762 | 55.02% | 102,819 | 44.98% | 0 | 0.00% | 228,581 | |
Wakulla | 9,322 | 65.69% | 4,868 | 34.31% | 0 | 0.00% | 14,190 | |
Walton | 22,776 | 75.26% | 7,485 | 24.73% | 4 | 0.01% | 30,265 | |
Washington | 7,101 | 78.38% | 1,959 | 21.62% | 0 | 0.00% | 9,060 | |
Total | 4,099,505 | 50.05% | 4,089,472 | 49.93% | 1,028 | 0.01% | 8,190,005 |
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican
Scott won 14 of 27 congressional districts.[202]
District | Nelson | Scott | Representative | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
32% | 68% | Matt Gaetz | |||
35% | 65% | Neal Dunn | |||
45% | 55% | Ted Yoho | |||
38% | 62% | John Rutherford | |||
65% | 35% | Al Lawson | |||
43% | 57% | Ron DeSantis | |||
Michael Waltz | |||||
55% | 45% | Stephanie Murphy | |||
42% | 58% | Bill Posey | |||
54% | 46% | Darren Soto | |||
63% | 37% | Val Demings | |||
35% | 65% | Daniel Webster | |||
44% | 56% | Gus Bilirakis | |||
55% | 45% | Charlie Crist | |||
59% | 41% | Kathy Castor | |||
46% | 54% | Dennis Ross | |||
Ross Spano | |||||
46% | 54% | Vern Buchanan | |||
38% | 62% | Tom Rooney | |||
Greg Steube | |||||
48% | 52% | Brian Mast | |||
38% | 62% | Francis Rooney | |||
82% | 18% | Alcee Hastings | |||
61% | 39% | Lois Frankel | |||
60% | 40% | Ted Deutch | |||
64% | 36% | Debbie Wasserman Schultz | |||
83% | 17% | Frederica Wilson | |||
42% | 58% | Mario Díaz-Balart | |||
54% | 46% | Carlos Curbelo | |||
Donna Shalala | |||||
56% | 44% | Ileana Ros-Lehtinen | |||
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell |
Demographic subgroup | Nelson | Scott | No Answer | % of Voters | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||||
Men | 42 | 58 | N/A | 45 | ||
Women | 57 | 43 | N/A | 55 | ||
Age | ||||||
18–24 years old | 62 | 38 | N/A | 5 | ||
25–29 years old | 73 | 27 | N/A | 5 | ||
30–39 years old | 62 | 38 | N/A | 10 | ||
40–49 years old | 49 | 51 | N/A | 12 | ||
50–64 years old | 50 | 50 | N/A | 31 | ||
65 and older | 43 | 57 | N/A | 37 | ||
Race | ||||||
White | 40 | 60 | N/A | 66 | ||
Black | 90 | 10 | N/A | 13 | ||
Latino | 54 | 46 | N/A | 15 | ||
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 | ||
Other | 67 | 33 | N/A | 4 | ||
Race by gender | ||||||
White men | 32 | 68 | N/A | 31 | ||
White women | 47 | 53 | N/A | 35 | ||
Black men | 88 | 12 | N/A | 6 | ||
Black women | 91 | 9 | N/A | 8 | ||
Latino men | 49 | 51 | N/A | 6 | ||
Latina women | 58 | 42 | N/A | 9 | ||
Others | 66 | 34 | N/A | 5 | ||
Education | ||||||
High school or less | 47 | 53 | N/A | 20 | ||
Some college education | 51 | 49 | N/A | 25 | ||
Associate degree | 47 | 53 | N/A | 15 | ||
Bachelor's degree | 48 | 52 | N/A | 24 | ||
Advanced degree | 58 | 42 | N/A | 16 | ||
Education and race | ||||||
White college graduates | 47 | 53 | N/A | 28 | ||
White no college degree | 35 | 65 | N/A | 38 | ||
Non-white college graduates | 64 | 36 | N/A | 12 | ||
Non-white no college degree | 74 | 26 | N/A | 22 | ||
Whites by education and gender | ||||||
White women with college degrees | 58 | 42 | N/A | 13 | ||
White women without college degrees | 40 | 60 | N/A | 22 | ||
White men with college degrees | 37 | 63 | N/A | 14 | ||
White men without college degrees | 27 | 73 | N/A | 17 | ||
Non-whites | 70 | 30 | N/A | 34 | ||
Income | ||||||
Under $30,000 | 62 | 38 | N/A | 19 | ||
$30,000–49,999 | 53 | 47 | N/A | 22 | ||
$50,000–99,999 | 51 | 49 | N/A | 34 | ||
$100,000–199,999 | 48 | 52 | N/A | 19 | ||
Over $200,000 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 | ||
Party ID | ||||||
Democrats | 92 | 8 | N/A | 33 | ||
Republicans | 9 | 91 | N/A | 37 | ||
Independents | 55 | 45 | N/A | 30 | ||
Party by gender | ||||||
Democratic men | 90 | 10 | N/A | 12 | ||
Democratic women | 93 | 7 | N/A | 21 | ||
Republican men | 7 | 93 | N/A | 19 | ||
Republican women | 11 | 89 | N/A | 18 | ||
Independent men | 50 | 50 | N/A | 14 | ||
Independent women | 60 | 40 | N/A | 16 | ||
Ideology | ||||||
Liberals | 89 | 11 | N/A | 22 | ||
Moderates | 62 | 38 | N/A | 39 | ||
Conservatives | 15 | 85 | N/A | 39 | ||
Marital status | ||||||
Married | 43 | 57 | N/A | 64 | ||
Unmarried | 59 | 41 | N/A | 36 | ||
Gender by marital status | ||||||
Married men | 36 | 64 | N/A | 32 | ||
Married women | 50 | 50 | N/A | 31 | ||
Unmarried men | 48 | 52 | N/A | 14 | ||
Unmarried women | 62 | 38 | N/A | 22 | ||
First-time midterm election voter | ||||||
Yes | 58 | 42 | N/A | 16 | ||
No | 47 | 53 | N/A | 84 | ||
Most important issue facing the country | ||||||
Health care | 75 | 25 | N/A | 41 | ||
Immigration | 17 | 83 | N/A | 29 | ||
Economy | 28 | 72 | N/A | 16 | ||
Gun policy | 76 | 24 | N/A | 11 | ||
Area type | ||||||
Urban | 56 | 44 | N/A | 42 | ||
Suburban | 47 | 53 | N/A | 50 | ||
Rural | 37 | 63 | N/A | 8 | ||
Source: CNN[203] |
Official campaign websites