| Election Name: | 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas |
| Country: | Arkansas |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2008 United States Senate election in Arkansas |
| Previous Year: | 2008 |
| Next Election: | 2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas |
| Next Year: | 2020 |
| Election Date: | November 4, 2014 |
| Image1: | File:Tom Cotton, Official Portrait, 113th Congress small (cropped).jpeg |
| Nominee1: | Tom Cotton |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 478,819 |
| Percentage1: | 56.50% |
| Nominee2: | Mark Pryor |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 334,174 |
| Percentage2: | 39.43% |
| Map Size: | 210px |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Mark Pryor |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Tom Cotton |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 57% to 39%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.
Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.
Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.[4]
Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]
The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]
Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.
Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on Hand | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Pryor (D) | $10,428,246 | $12,034,784 | $364,653 | ||
| Tom Cotton (R) | $7,557,443 | $6,411,763 | $1,885,435 |
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[16] | November 3, 2014 | ||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] | November 3, 2014 | ||
| align=left | Rothenberg Political Report[18] | November 3, 2014 | ||
| align=left | Real Clear Politics[19] | November 3, 2014 |
| Poll source | Mark Pryor (D) | Tom Cotton (R) | Other | Undecided | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| align=left | Basswood Research[20] | March 16–17, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 35% | 43% | — | 22% | ||
| align=left | Basswood Research[21] | June 22–23, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 41% | 40% | — | 19% | ||
| align=left | Clark Research[22] | July 23–27, 2013 | 729 | ± 4% | 43% | 35% | — | 21% | ||
| align=left | On Message Inc.[23] | July 29–30, 2013 | 600 | ± 4% | 42% | 44% | — | 14% | ||
| align=left | Harper Polling[24] | August 4–5, 2013 | 587 | ± 4.04% | 41% | 43% | — | 16% | ||
| align=left | Global Strategy Group[25] | August 26–29, 2013 | 501 | ± ?% | 47% | 40% | — | 13% | ||
| align=left | Harper Polling[26] | September 24–26, 2013 | 622 | ± 3.93% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% | ||
| align=left | Talk Business/Hendrix College[27] | October 8, 2013 | 603 | ± 4% | 42% | 41% | — | 17% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling[28] | October 14–15, 2013 | 955 | ± 3.2% | 44% | 41% | — | 15% | ||
| align=left | University of Arkansas[29] | October 10–17, 2013 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 34% | 32% | — | 34% | ||
| align=left | Impact Management Group[30] | October 24, 2013 | 911 | ± 3.2% | 41% | 42% | — | 18% | ||
| align=left | Polling Company/WomanTrend[31] | December 6–7, 2013 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 48% | — | 9% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling[32] | December 13–15, 2013 | 1,004 | ± 3.1% | 44% | 44% | — | 12% | ||
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports[33] | February 4–5, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 40% | 45% | 5% | 10% | ||
| align=left | Harper Polling[34] | January 26–27, 2014 | 533 | ± 4.24% | 36% | 42% | — | 22% | ||
| align=left | Impact Management Group[35] | February 10, 2014 | 1,202 | ± 2.83% | 42% | 46% | — | 13% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | Hickman Analytics[36] | February 17–20, 2014 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 39% | 41% | 8% | 12% | ||
| 42% | 51% | — | 8% | |||||||
| align=left | Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[37] | March 27 – April 2, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 45% | — | 7% | ||
| align=left | Talk Business/Hendrix College[38] | April 3–4, 2014 | 1,068 | ± 3% | 46% | 43% | 4% | 8% | ||
| align=left | Opinion Research Associates[39] | April 1–8, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 48% | 38% | — | 8% | ||
| align=left | Harper Polling[40] | April 9–10, 2014 | 522 | ± 4.29% | 39% | 39% | — | 22% | ||
| align=left | New York Times/Kaiser Family[41] | April 8–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 4% | 46% | 36% | 4% | 15% | ||
| align=left | Magellan Strategies[42] | April 14–15, 2014 | 857 | ± 3.35% | 43% | 46% | 4% | 7% | ||
| align=left | Public Policy Polling[43] | April 25–27, 2014 | 840 | ± 3.4% | 43% | 42% | — | 16% | ||
| align=left | NBC News/Marist[44] | April 30 – May 4, 2014 | 876 | ± 3.3% | 51% | 40% | 1% | 3% | ||
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | May 27–28, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 4% | 6% | ||
| align=left | Public Opinion Strategies[45] | May 27–29, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.39% | 41% | 46% | — | 13% | ||
| align=left | Fabrizio Lee[46] | June 3–5, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 43% | 51% | — | 5% | ||
| align=left | Magellan Strategies[47] | June 4–5, 2014 | 755 | ± 3.57% | 45% | 49% | 2% | 4% | ||
| align=left | Impact Management Group[48] | June 29, 2014 | 1290 | ± 2.72% | 43% | 47% | — | 10% | ||
| align=left | Gravis Marketing[49] | July 7–8, 2014 | 987 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 5% | — | ||
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov[50] | July 5–24, 2014 | 1,628 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% | ||
| align=left | Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[51] | July 20–24, 2014 | 600 | ± 4% | 48% | 46% | — | 6% | ||
| align=left | Talk Business/Hendrix College[52] | July 22–25, 2014 | 1,780 | ± 2.3% | 42% | 44% | 7%[53] | 7% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | Public Policy Polling[54] | August 1–3, 2014 | 1,066 | ± 3% | 39% | 41% | 7% | 14% | ||
| 41% | 43% | — | 16% | |||||||
| align=left | Opinion Research Associates[55] | August 6–14, 2014 | 414 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 41% | 4% | 9% | ||
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | August 25–26, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 44% | 43% | 6% | 6% | ||
| align=left | ccAdvertising[56] | August 31 – September 1, 2014 | 1,735 | ± ? | 29% | 37% | — | 34% | ||
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov[57] | August 18 – September 2, 2014 | 1,572 | ± 3% | 39% | 43% | 2% | 16% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | CNN/ORC International[58] | August 28 – September 2, 2014 | 523 LV | ± 4.5% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% | ||
| 839 RV | ± 3.5% | 47% | 38% | — | 14% | |||||
| align=left | Hickman Analytics[59] | August 26 – September 3, 2014 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 45% | 43% | — | 12% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | NBC News/Marist[60] | September 2–4, 2014 | 639 LV | ± 3.9% | 40% | 45% | 6% | 9% | ||
| 1,068 RV | ± 3% | 41% | 41% | 8%[61] | 11% | |||||
| align=left | Answers Unlimited[62] | September 7–9, 2014 | 600 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 4%[63] | 8% | ||
| align=left | Gravis Marketing[64] | September 8–11, 2014 | 902 | ± 4% | 43% | 47% | 2%[65] | 8% | ||
| align=left | Hickman Analytics[66] | September 13–18, 2014 | 801 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 43% | — | 11% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | Public Policy Polling[67] | September 18–21, 2014 | 1,453 | ± 2.6% | 38% | 43% | 6%[68] | 13% | ||
| 39% | 45% | — | 15% | |||||||
| align=left | Suffolk[69] | September 20–23, 2014 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 43% | 5% | 7% | ||
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | September 24–25, 2014 | 750 | ± 4% | 40% | 47% | 5% | 8% | ||
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov[70] | September 20 – October 1, 2014 | 1,991 | ± 2% | 41% | 45% | 1% | 13% | ||
| align=left | Opinion Research Associates[71] | October 1–5, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 42% | 5% | 9% | ||
| align=left | Fox News[72] | October 4–7, 2014 | 707 | ± 3.5% | 39% | 46% | 5%[73] | 11% | ||
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | October 13–15, 2014 | 940 | ± 3% | 44% | 47% | 4% | 5% | ||
| align=left | Talk Business/Hendrix[74] | October 15–16, 2014 | 2,075 | ± 2.2% | 40.5% | 49% | 5%[75] | 6% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | NBC News/Marist[76] | October 19–23, 2014 | 621 | ± 3.9% | 43% | 45% | 6%[77] | 7% | ||
| 971 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 42% | 6% | 9% | |||||
| align=left | CBS News/NYT/YouGov | October 16–23, 2014 | 1,567 | ± 4% | 42% | 47% | 1% | 10% | ||
| align=left | Opinion Research Associates[78] | October 25–26, 2014 | 401 | ± 5% | 45% | 44% | 2%[79] | 10% | ||
| align=left | Issues & Answers Network[80] | October 21–27, 2014 | 568 | ± 4.1% | 36% | 49% | — | 15% | ||
| align=left | Rasmussen Reports | October 27–29, 2014 | 967 | ± 3% | 44% | 51% | 4% | 2% | ||
| align=left rowspan=2 | Public Policy Polling[81] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 1,092 | ± 3% | 41% | 49% | 4% | 5% | ||
| 45% | 51% | — | 4% | |||||||
| align=left | Opinion Research Associates[82] | October 30 – November 1, 2014 | 400 | ± 5% | 45% | 43% | 4%[83] | 8% |
Campaign websites (Archived)