2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas explained

Election Name:2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Country:Arkansas
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2008 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Previous Year:2008
Next Election:2020 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Next Year:2020
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Image1:File:Tom Cotton, Official Portrait, 113th Congress small (cropped).jpeg
Nominee1:Tom Cotton
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:478,819
Percentage1:56.50%
Nominee2:Mark Pryor
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:334,174
Percentage2:39.43%
Map Size:210px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Mark Pryor
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Tom Cotton
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

The 2014 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas, concurrently with the election of the Governor of Arkansas, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Pryor ran for re-election to a third term in office. He was unopposed in the Democratic primary; U.S. Representative Tom Cotton was also unopposed for the Republican nomination. While the race was initially expected to be close, Cotton prevailed by a margin of 57% to 39%.[1] The Associated Press called the race for Cotton immediately after the polls closed.[2] This marked the first time since Reconstruction in 1877 that Republicans held both Senate seats in Arkansas, and the Arkansas congressional delegation was entirely Republican. Pryor drew many comparisons to Blanche Lincoln, also a Democratic senator from Arkansas who was ultimately unseated in 2010, with Pryor receiving a similar fate.

Elected at age 37, Cotton surpassed Connecticut's Chris Murphy as the youngest incumbent senator at that time and remained so until the seating of Missouri’s Josh Hawley at the opening of the 116th United States Congress.

Background

Arkansas Attorney General Mark Pryor was first elected to the Senate in 2002, defeating first-term Republican incumbent Tim Hutchinson. He was re-elected with 80% of the vote in 2008 as he was unopposed by a Republican candidate. He faced competition only from Green Party nominee Rebekah Kennedy, who won the largest share of the vote of any Green Party candidate in a Senate race in history.[3] Of the 88 previous occasions when an incumbent senator was re-elected without major party opposition and then went on to contest the following general election, all 88 were re-elected.[4]

Heading into the 2014 Cotton vs. Pryor matchup, only 17 House freshmen had been elected to the U.S. Senate over the last century, and just two in the last 40 years.[5] In the 2014 cycle, Cotton and Montana's Steve Daines became the 18th and 19th freshmen to win U.S. Senate races since 1914.[6]

The election was originally thought to be extremely close- a claim backed up by polling, but Tom Cotton ended up winning in a landslide against the incumbent, by 17.1 points.[7]

Democratic primary

Pryor was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Republican primary

Cotton was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Third parties

Candidates

Declared

General election

Fundraising

CandidateRaisedSpentCash on Hand
Mark Pryor (D)$10,428,246$12,034,784$364,653
Tom Cotton (R)$7,557,443$6,411,763$1,885,435

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[16] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[18] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[19] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceMark
Pryor (D)
Tom
Cotton (R)
OtherUndecided
align=left Basswood Research[20] March 16–17, 2013600± 4%35%43%22%
align=left Basswood Research[21] June 22–23, 2013600± 4%41%40%19%
align=left Clark Research[22] July 23–27, 2013729± 4%43%35%21%
align=left On Message Inc.[23] July 29–30, 2013600± 4%42%44%14%
align=left Harper Polling[24] August 4–5, 2013587± 4.04%41%43%16%
align=left Global Strategy Group[25] August 26–29, 2013501± ?%47%40%13%
align=left Harper Polling[26] September 24–26, 2013622± 3.93%45%42%13%
align=left Talk Business/Hendrix College[27] October 8, 2013603± 4%42%41%17%
align=left Public Policy Polling[28] October 14–15, 2013955± 3.2%44%41%15%
align=left University of Arkansas[29] October 10–17, 2013800± 3.5%34%32%34%
align=left Impact Management Group[30] October 24, 2013911± 3.2%41%42%18%
align=left Polling Company/WomanTrend[31] December 6–7, 2013400± 4.9%41%48%9%
align=left Public Policy Polling[32] December 13–15, 20131,004± 3.1%44%44%12%
align=left Rasmussen Reports[33] February 4–5, 2014500± 4.5%40%45%5%10%
align=left Harper Polling[34] January 26–27, 2014533± 4.24%36%42%22%
align=left Impact Management Group[35] February 10, 20141,202± 2.83%42%46%13%
align=left rowspan=2 Hickman Analytics[36] February 17–20, 2014400± 4.9%39%41%8%12%
42%51%8%
align=left Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[37] March 27 – April 2, 2014600± 4%48%45%7%
align=left Talk Business/Hendrix College[38] April 3–4, 20141,068± 3%46%43%4%8%
align=left Opinion Research Associates[39] April 1–8, 2014400± 5%48%38%8%
align=left Harper Polling[40] April 9–10, 2014522± 4.29%39%39%22%
align=left New York Times/Kaiser Family[41] April 8–15, 2014857± 4%46%36%4%15%
align=left Magellan Strategies[42] April 14–15, 2014857± 3.35%43%46%4%7%
align=left Public Policy Polling[43] April 25–27, 2014840± 3.4%43%42%16%
align=left NBC News/Marist[44] April 30 – May 4, 2014876± 3.3%51%40%1%3%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsMay 27–28, 2014750± 4%43%47%4%6%
align=left Public Opinion Strategies[45] May 27–29, 2014500± 4.39%41%46%13%
align=left Fabrizio Lee[46] June 3–5, 2014600± 4%43%51%5%
align=left Magellan Strategies[47] June 4–5, 2014755± 3.57%45%49%2%4%
align=left Impact Management Group[48] June 29, 20141290± 2.72%43%47%10%
align=left Gravis Marketing[49] July 7–8, 2014987± 3%44%51%5%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[50] July 5–24, 20141,628± 2.9%45%49%1%5%
align=left Anzalone Liszt Grove Research[51] July 20–24, 2014600± 4%48%46%6%
align=left Talk Business/Hendrix College[52] July 22–25, 20141,780± 2.3%42%44%7%[53] 7%
align=left rowspan=2 Public Policy Polling[54] August 1–3, 20141,066± 3%39%41%7%14%
41%43%16%
align=left Opinion Research Associates[55] August 6–14, 2014414± 4.9%46%41%4%9%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsAugust 25–26, 2014750± 4%44%43%6%6%
align=left ccAdvertising[56] August 31 – September 1, 20141,735± ?29%37%34%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[57] August 18 – September 2, 20141,572± 3%39%43%2%16%
align=left rowspan=2 CNN/ORC International[58] August 28 – September 2, 2014523 LV± 4.5%47%49%4%
839 RV± 3.5%47%38%14%
align=left Hickman Analytics[59] August 26 – September 3, 2014700± 3.7%45%43%12%
align=left rowspan=2 NBC News/Marist[60] September 2–4, 2014639 LV± 3.9%40%45%6%9%
1,068 RV± 3%41%41%8%[61] 11%
align=left Answers Unlimited[62] September 7–9, 2014600± 3.5%46%42%4%[63] 8%
align=left Gravis Marketing[64] September 8–11, 2014902± 4%43%47%2%[65] 8%
align=left Hickman Analytics[66] September 13–18, 2014801± 3.5%46%43%11%
align=left rowspan=2 Public Policy Polling[67] September 18–21, 20141,453± 2.6%38%43%6%[68] 13%
39%45%15%
align=left Suffolk[69] September 20–23, 2014500± 4.4%45%43%5%7%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 24–25, 2014750± 4%40%47%5%8%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGov[70] September 20 – October 1, 20141,991± 2%41%45%1%13%
align=left Opinion Research Associates[71] October 1–5, 2014400± 5%45%42%5%9%
align=left Fox News[72] October 4–7, 2014707± 3.5%39%46%5%[73] 11%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsOctober 13–15, 2014940± 3%44%47%4%5%
align=left Talk Business/Hendrix[74] October 15–16, 20142,075± 2.2%40.5%49%5%[75] 6%
align=left rowspan=2 NBC News/Marist[76] October 19–23, 2014621± 3.9%43%45%6%[77] 7%
971± 3.1%43%42%6%9%
align=left CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 20141,567± 4%42%47%1%10%
align=left Opinion Research Associates[78] October 25–26, 2014401± 5%45%44%2%[79] 10%
align=left Issues & Answers Network[80] October 21–27, 2014568± 4.1%36%49%15%
align=left Rasmussen ReportsOctober 27–29, 2014967± 3%44%51%4%2%
align=left rowspan=2 Public Policy Polling[81] October 30 – November 1, 20141,092± 3%41%49%4%5%
45%51%4%
align=left Opinion Research Associates[82] October 30 – November 1, 2014400± 5%45%43%4%[83] 8%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

External links

Campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: November 4, 2014 Arkansas General Election and Nonpartisan Runoff Election OFFICIAL RESULTS . 8 September 2022 . 4 November 2014.
  2. Web site: Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas. Katie. Glueck. POLITICO.
  3. Web site: Blog Archive » Rebekah Kennedy Pulls Record Results for U.S. Senate - America's #1 Source for Green Party News & Views . Green Party Watch . November 7, 2008 . September 4, 2010.
  4. Web site: Mark Pryor Could Face Historic Defeat in 2014 . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier . August 5, 2013.
  5. Web site: Tom Cotton's Quandary: Can House Freshmen Win Senate Seats? . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier . March 20, 2013.
  6. Web site: Will a Freshman US Representative Win a Senate Seat in 2016? . Smart Politics . Eric . Ostermeier . November 17, 2014.
  7. Web site: Glueck. Katie. Cotton defeats Pryor in Arkansas. 2021-01-14. POLITICO. en.
  8. News: Sen. Mark Pryor is running for re-election in 2014 . Arkansas Times . April 19, 2012.
  9. News: D.C. GOP can't get a pulse on Arkansas. https://archive.today/20130801153216/http://www.naturalstatereport.com/2013/07/31/national-republicans-cluesless-in-ar/. dead. August 1, 2013. Natural State Report. July 31, 2013.
  10. News: Glueck . Katie . Arkansas's Tom Cotton to run for U.S. Senate . Politico . July 31, 2013.
  11. News: Democrat Mark Pryor seen as likely GOP target in '14. Arkansas Online . Alex . Daniels . Charlie . Frago. November 12, 2012.
  12. News: Mark Darr Announces Run for Arkansas' 4th District Seat . Associated Press . Andrew . DeMillo . Arkansas Business. August 13, 2013.
  13. Web site: Griffin Wins Seat on Ways and Means Committee, Will Not Seek Higher Office in 2014. talkbusiness.net . https://web.archive.org/web/20121203031719/http://talkbusiness.net/2012/11/griffin-wins-seat-on-ways-and-means-committee-will-not-seek-higher-office . December 3, 2012.
  14. News: Democrats, Republicans React To Cotton, Changing Political Landscape . Talk Business Arkansas . Ryan . Saylor . August 7, 2013 . August 13, 2013.
  15. Web site: Candidates who filed for office in Arkansas . March 3, 2014 . March 5, 2014 . sfgate.com.
  16. Web site: 2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  17. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
  18. Web site: 2014 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
  19. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
  20. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/basswood-r-club-for-growth-senate-conservatives-fund-17171 Basswood Research
  21. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/basswood-r-senate-conservatives-fund-17608 Basswood Research
  22. https://www.scribd.com/doc/158212312/AR-Sen-Clark-Research-for-AFSCME-July-2013 Clark Research
  23. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/08/gop-poll-tom-cotton-has-edge-over-mark-pryor-95427.html On Message Inc.
  24. https://web.archive.org/web/20130809053436/http://conservativeintel.com/86-conservative-intel-poll-of-arsen/ Harper Polling
  25. http://talkbusiness.net/2013/09/cook-mark-pryor-leads-tom-cotton-in-new-poll/ Global Strategy Group
  26. http://images.politico.com/global/2013/10/14/arkansas.html Harper Polling
  27. http://talkbusiness.net/2013/10/poll-pryor-cotton-in-tight-race-already/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  28. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/SenatePollsOctober2013Memo.pdf Public Policy Polling
  29. https://web.archive.org/web/20131102204305/http://plsc.uark.edu/2013_Arkansas_Poll_News_Release.doc University of Arkansas
  30. https://web.archive.org/web/20140223123752/http://www.thecitywire.com/sites/default/files/oct2013impactgenelectionsurvey.pdf Impact Management Group
  31. http://www.politico.com/story/2013/12/poll-mark-pryor-trails-tom-cotton-arkansas-senate-2014-100916.html Polling Company/WomanTrend
  32. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/ArkansasPollMemo.pdf Public Policy Polling
  33. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2014/arkansas/election_2014_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  34. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/02/06/ac_1401_ar_toplines.html Harper Polling
  35. https://web.archive.org/web/20140223125542/http://www.thecitywire.com/sites/default/files/impact_management_group_feb_2014_statewide_poll.pdf Impact Management Group
  36. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/03/09/hai_arkansas-topline-tables.html Hickman Analytics
  37. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/04/14/summary_--_ar_statewide_poll_april_2014.html Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
  38. http://talkbusiness.net/2014/04/pryor-holds-small-lead-cotton-high-profile-u-s-senate-race/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  39. https://www.scribd.com/doc/217489671/AR-Sen-AR-Gov-Opinion-Research-Associates-Apr-2014 Opinion Research Associates
  40. http://www.americancrossroads.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/AC-14.04-AR-Toplines.pdf Harper Polling
  41. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/04/23/upshot/24upshot-south-poll.html New York Times/Kaiser Family
  42. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_Arkansas_0414.pdf Magellan Strategies
  43. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_430.pdf Public Policy Polling
  44. https://web.archive.org/web/20140512154313/http://msnbcmedia.msn.com/i/MSNBC/Sections/A_Politics/NBC%20News-Marist%20Poll_Arkansas_Annotated%20Questionnaire_May%202014.pdf NBC News/Marist
  45. https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/senate-races/208020-cotton-leads-pryor-in-new-gop-poll/ Public Opinion Strategies
  46. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/06/10/6-14_ar_summary_memo.html Fabrizio Lee
  47. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2014/Magellan_AR_0614.pdf Magellan Strategies
  48. https://web.archive.org/web/20140714173500/http://www.impactmanagement.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/IMG-June-29-Survey.pdf Impact Management Group
  49. https://web.archive.org/web/20140721023108/http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/arkansas-polling-us-senate-governor-and-attorney-general Gravis Marketing
  50. http://www.cbsnews.com/news/2014-midterms-republicans-narrowly-favored-to-capture-senate-in-november/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  51. http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-mark-pryor-up-2-tom-cotton/ Anzalone Liszt Grove Research
  52. https://web.archive.org/web/20140802202036/http://talkbusiness.net/2014/07/u-s-senate-poll-tom-cotton-44-mark-pryor-42/ Talk Business/Hendrix College
  53. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%
  54. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_8051118.pdf Public Policy Polling
  55. https://www.scribd.com/doc/237445036/ORSurvery Opinion Research Associates
  56. https://gallery.mailchimp.com/0a361110a8a816b64fb4521ff/files/AR_FLYER_14_901.pdf ccAdvertising
  57. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/battleground-tracker-2014-arkansas/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  58. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2014/images/09/05/cnn.orc.ar.poll.pdf CNN/ORC International
  59. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/09/05/hickman_arkansas_poll_sept_5.html Hickman Analytics
  60. http://newscms.nbcnews.com/sites/newscms/files/maristarkansassept.pdf NBC News/Marist
  61. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 4%, Other 1%
  62. https://web.archive.org/web/20140917133548/http://www.southernprogressfund.org/2014/09/new-statewide-poll/ Answers Unlimited
  63. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  64. http://gravismarketing.com/polling-and-market-research/telephone-survey-arkansas-political-poll/ Gravis Marketing
  65. Nathan LaFrance (L)
  66. http://images.politico.com/global/2014/09/21/9_19_14_d2.html Hickman Analytics
  67. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_AR_922.pdf Public Policy Polling
  68. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%
  69. http://www.suffolk.edu/documents/SUPRC/9_24_2014_marginals.pdf Suffolk
  70. http://today.yougov.com/news/2014/09/07/senate-races-battleground-tracker/ CBS News/NYT/YouGov
  71. http://atr.rollcall.com/elections-2014-mark-pryor-poll-lead-tom-cotton/ Opinion Research Associates
  72. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/interactive/2014/10/08/fox-news-poll-gop-candidate-cotton-up-7-points-over-dem-sen-pryor-in-arkansas/ Fox News
  73. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%, Other 1%
  74. http://talkbusiness.net/2014/10/tbp-hendrix-poll-cotton-up-8-points-on-pryor-in-senate-race/ Talk Business/Hendrix
  75. Nathan LaFrance (L) 3%, Mark Swaney (G) 2%
  76. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1026-arkansas-cotton-and-pryor-in-tight-match-in-u-s-senate-contest-hutchinson-and-ross-closely-paired-in-governors-race/ NBC News/Marist
  77. Nathan LaFrance (L) 2%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%, Other 1%
  78. http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/DPAORCPollMemo2526.pdf Opinion Research Associates
  79. Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 1%
  80. https://web.archive.org/web/20141107062221/http://plsc.uark.edu/2014-Arkansas-Poll-summary-report-final.pdf Issues & Answers Network
  81. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/ARResults.pdf Public Policy Polling
  82. https://www.scribd.com/doc/245310596/AR-Sen-AR-Gov-Opinion-Research-Associates-for-Arkansas-Citizens-First-Congress-Nov-2014 Opinion Research Associates
  83. Nathan LaFrance (L) 1%, Mark Swaney (G) 3%