2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas explained

Election Name:2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Country:Arkansas
Flag Year:1924
Type:presidential
Ongoing:Yes
Previous Election:2004 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Previous Year:2004
Next Election:2016 United States Senate election in Arkansas
Next Year:2016
Election Date:November 2, 2010
Image1:John Boozman 109th pictorial.jpg
Nominee1:John Boozman
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:451,617
Percentage1:57.90%
Nominee2:Blanche Lincoln
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:288,156
Percentage2:36.95%
Map Size:200px
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Blanche Lincoln
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:John Boozman
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:47.61%

The 2010 United States Senate election in Arkansas took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Blanche Lincoln ran for re-election to a third term, facing a strong primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and prevailing only in a runoff. However, the general election was won by U.S. Representative John Boozman, the younger brother of Fay Boozman whom Lincoln defeated in 1998. Boozman became the first Republican since Reconstruction in 1872 to win this seat. Lincoln's 21% margin of defeat was the largest for a sitting senator in 32 years.[1]

Democratic primary

The Democratic primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3 to 17. Lincoln was challenged by Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter, who ran as a more liberal alternative. As no candidate received 50 percent of the vote, a runoff election was held on June 8, with early voting from June 1 to 7. Lincoln managed to narrowly defeat Halter in the runoff.[2]

MoveOn.org supported Halter, criticizing Lincoln for her stance on issues such as health care and environmental regulations.[3] Labor unions also backed Halter, and pledged to spend more than $3 million on his campaign.[4]

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in runoff

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew Before Primary

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
D.C.
Morrison
OtherUndecided
Research 2000[8] May 10–12, 2010600± 5% align=center46%37%6%11%
Research 2000[9] April 26–28, 2010600± 5% align=center43%35%7% (Drew Pritt)15%
Talk Business[10] April 13, 20101,167± 3% align=center38%31%10%20%
Research 2000[11] March 22–24, 2010600± 4% align=center44%31%25%
Research 2000[12] November 30 – December 2, 2009600± 4% align=center42%26%32%

Runoff

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln
Bill
Halter
Undecided
Research 2000[13] June 2–4, 2010600± 4%45% align=center49%6%
Research 2000[14] May 24–26, 2010600± 4%44% align=center47%9%

Results

Republican primary

The Republican primary was held on May 18, 2010, with early voting from May 3–17.

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Straw poll

In December 2009, a straw poll was held for the current Republican candidates for U.S. Senate. The results were as follows:[22]

  1. Gilbert Baker – 35%
  2. Curtis Coleman – 33%
  3. Conrad Reynolds – 23%
  4. Tom Cox – 4%
  5. Kim Hendren – 2%
  6. Fred Ramey – 2%
  7. Buddy Rogers – 1%

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Randy
Alexander
Gilbert
Baker
John
Boozman
Curtis
Coleman
Kim
Hendren
Jim
Holt
Fred
Ramey
Conrad
Reynolds
OtherUndecided
Research 2000[23] May 10–12, 2010± 4%12% align=center46%6%19%4%13%
Talk Business[24] April 13, 20101,357± 3%3%14% align=center46%5%3%8%1%3%17%

Results

General election

Candidates

Campaign

Arkansas had previously only elected one Republican senator since the Reconstruction, Tim Hutchinson who was defeated after his first term in 2002 by Mark Pryor. Lincoln faced Lieutenant Governor Bill Halter and narrowly won the primary contest.

The political blog FiveThirtyEight ranked Lincoln the most vulnerable senator of this electoral cycle. RealClearPolitics claimed that in 2010 Lincoln had the potential for the lowest percentage of the vote for any incumbent since the nation first began directly electing senators.[28] Boozman received 58% of the vote in the general election and defeated Lincoln (37%), Independent Trevor Drown (3%) and Green John Gray (2%).

Lincoln heavily criticized Boozman for supporting the FairTax and privatization of Social Security.[29] She released an advertisement touting her support for earmarks.[30]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report[33] October 9, 2010
Inside Elections[34] October 8, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball[35] October 28, 2010
RealClearPolitics[36] October 9, 2010
CQ Politics[37] October 9, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (Party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Blanche Lincoln (D)$9,508,007$8,431,989$1,886,132$0
John Boozman (R)$1,452,241$968,318$483,923$11,905
Source: Federal Election Commission[38]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Blanche
Lincoln (D)
John
Boozman (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports[39] October 28, 2010500± 4.5%36% align=center55%5%4%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research[40] October 15–19, 20101,505± 2.5%41% align=center55%
align=left Mason-Dixon[41] October 15–19, 2010625± 4%34% align=center55%6%5%
Talk Business[42] October 14, 20101,953± 2.2%36% align=center49%8%7%
Rasmussen Reports[43] September 30, 2010500± 4.5%37% align=center55%3%5%
Reuters/Ipsos[44] September 17–19, 2010600± 4%39% align=center53%1%7%
Mason-Dixon[45] September 12–14, 2010625± 4%34% align=center51%4%11%
Rasmussen Reports[46] August 18, 2010500± 4.5%27% align=center65%4%3%
Rasmussen Reports[47] July 20, 2010500± 4.5%35% align=center60%2%3%
Reuters/Ipsos[48] July 16–18, 2010600± 4%35% align=center54%1%10%
Talk Business[49] July 17, 2010793± 3.7%32% align=center57%5%6%
Magellan Strategies[50] July 12, 2010879± 3.3%29% align=center60%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports[51] June 15, 2010500± 4.5%32% align=center61%4%3%
Research 2000[52] May 24–26, 2010600± 4%38% align=center58%4%
Rasmussen Reports[53] May 19, 2010500± 4.5%28% align=center66%2%4%
Research 2000[54] May 10–12, 2010± 4%40% align=center54%
Research 2000[55] April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42% align=center52%
Rasmussen Reports[56] April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30% align=center57%9%5%
Rasmussen Reports[57] March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36% align=center51%6%7%
Research 2000[58] March 22–24, 2010600± 4%42% align=center49%9%
Rasmussen Reports[59] March 1, 2010500± 4.5%39% align=center48%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports[60] February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35% align=center54%4%7%
Public Policy Polling[61] January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%33% align=center56%11%
Poll SourceBlanche
Lincoln (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)March 20–22, 2009600± 4%48%37%16%
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%42%18%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%44%37%19%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%39%47%5%8%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%41%39%2%18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%41%47%6%7%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009± 4%42%41%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%51%3%7%
Public Policy Polling (report)January 29–31, 2010810± 3.4%35%50%15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%40%45%6%8%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%41%49%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%51%6%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%53%12%4%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%47%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%39%45%
Poll SourceBlanche
Lincoln (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
OtherUndecided
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%47%28%25%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%44%5%10%
Zogby (report)November 16–17, 2009501± 4.5%45%29%2%24%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%39%46%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009± 4%46%30%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%39%47%4%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%43%7%12%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%43%48%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%5%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%30%51%11%8%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%40%50%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%40%46%
Poll SourceBlanche
Lincoln (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling (report)August 21–24, 2009784± 3.5%40%41%19%
Research 2000 (report)September 8–10, 2009600± 4%45%37%18%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 28, 2009500± 4.5%41%43%5%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)December 1, 2009500± 4.5%40%44%7%9%
Research 2000 (report)November 30 – December 2, 2009± 4%44%39%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 5, 2010500± 4.5%38%48%4%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 1, 2010500± 4.5%34%50%7%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%41%43%7%10%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%47%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%48%7%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%32%52%8%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%46%
Poll SourceBlanche
Lincoln (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%45%6%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%35%51%7%7%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%54%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%41%44%

with Bill Halter

Poll SourceBill
Halter (D)
John
Boozman (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%33%52%6%9%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%40%48%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%48%8%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%56%7%7%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%42%47%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%41%50%
Poll SourceBill
Halter (D)
Gilbert
Baker (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%37%44%5%13%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%46%10%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%36%44%7%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%48%10%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%44%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%42%42%
Poll SourceBill
Halter (D)
Kim
Hendren (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%42%7%15%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%44%45%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%42%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%33%45%15%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%45%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%42%42%
Poll SourceBill
Halter (D)
Curtis
Coleman (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%35%38%9%18%
Research 2000 (report)March 22–24, 2010600± 4%45%44%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%37%40%10%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%37%43%11%9%
Research 2000 (report)April 26–28, 2010600± 5%43%41%
Poll SourceBill
Halter (D)
Jim
Holt (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 1, 2010500± 4.5%38%42%8%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 30, 2010500± 4.5%34%43%9%13%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 26, 2010500± 4.5%31%49%12%8%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010± 4%42%43%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

See also

External links

Debates

Official campaign sites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Enten. Harry. 2014-12-05. Senate Forecast: Landrieu Headed Toward Historic Defeat In Louisiana Runoff. 2020-09-13. FiveThirtyEight. en-US.
  2. Web site: Election Dates and Deadlines . January 30, 2010 . . https://web.archive.org/web/20100305074843/http://www.votenaturally.org/election_dates.html . March 5, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  3. Cillizza, Chris. "The Fix" Washington Post, March 3, 2010.
  4. DeMillo, Andrew. "Halter raises more than $2M for Ark. Senate bid" Business Week, April 1, 2010.
  5. Web site: Vice President in Little Rock to Support Senator Lincoln . March 15, 2009 . January 30, 2010 . . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20090706025245/http://www.katv.com/news/stories/0309/603992.html . July 6, 2009 .
  6. News: CNN Political Ticker - All politics, all the time - CNN.com Blogs . CNN . May 27, 2010.
  7. News: Many U.S. Senate candidates already running .
  8. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/13/12462/7480 Research 2000
  9. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/4/29/861915/-AR-Sen:-Bill-Halter-is-within-single-digits-of-Blanche-Lincoln Research 2000
  10. https://web.archive.org/web/20100420114319/http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-U-S-SENATE-RACE-DEMOCRATS/156 Talk Business
  11. http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/3/24/AR/465 Research 2000
  12. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/12/3/810421/-AR-Sen:-Primary-bound- Research 2000
  13. http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/6/4/AR/542 Research 2000
  14. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/13/12462/7480 Research 2000
  15. Web site: Boozman running against Lincoln . January 29, 2010 . January 30, 2010 . . Josh . Kraushaar.
  16. News: Stewart . Martina . September 1, 2009 . Former Arkansas GOP chair announces Senate bid . CNN . January 30, 2010 . December 7, 2009 . https://web.archive.org/web/20091207035909/http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2009/09/01/former-arkansas-gop-chair-announces-senate-bid/ . dead .
  17. Web site: Tea party leader to run for Senate . June 15, 2009 . January 30, 2010 . . Andy . Barr.
  18. Web site: Kim Hendren Announces Run for U.S. Senate . April 20, 2009 . January 30, 2010 . . December 12, 2009 . https://web.archive.org/web/20091212185527/http://www.kfsm.com/news/kfsm-top-story-kim-hendren-senate-bid,0,7411731.story . dead .
  19. Web site: Holt announces U.S. Senate campaign . January 14, 2010 . January 30, 2010 . Arkansas News . John . Lyon.
  20. Web site: Ramey Joins GOP Field for U.S. Senate . June 23, 2009 . January 30, 2010 . KATV.
  21. Web site: 'Joe the Plumber' appears with Reynolds . January 25, 2010 . January 30, 2010 . .
  22. Web site: Baker Upbeat After 'Straw Poll' Win . December 8, 2009 . January 30, 2010 . . Rob . Moritz . December 15, 2017 . https://web.archive.org/web/20171215221254/http://www.swtimes.com/articles/2009/12/08/news/news120709_09.txt . dead .
  23. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/13/12462/7480 Research 2000
  24. https://web.archive.org/web/20100420082336/http://www.talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-U-S-SENATE-RACE-REPUBLICANS/157 Talk Business
  25. Web site: The Courier, Russellville, Ark . Couriernews.com . July 27, 2009 . June 7, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20110708195923/http://www.couriernews.com/archived_story.php?ID=22133&Search=Trevor%20Drown . July 8, 2011 . dead . mdy-all .
  26. Web site: Trevor Drown (I) for Senate - Arkansas . Trevordrown.ning.com . January 31, 2010 . June 7, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20100418062820/http://trevordrown.ning.com/ . April 18, 2010 . mdy-all .
  27. Web site: John Gray for U.S. Senate . John Gray for U.S. Senate . June 7, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20100507112823/http://www.johngrayforussenate.com/ . May 7, 2010 . dead . mdy-all .
  28. Web site: RealClearPolitics - Election 2010 - Arkansas Senate - Boozman vs. Lincoln . https://web.archive.org/web/20190116061946/https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/ar/arkansas_senate_boozman_vs_lincoln-1186.html. 2019-01-16.
  29. Web site: Demillo . Andrew . Lincoln criticizes Boozman on Social Security . https://web.archive.org/web/20100821094626/http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9HHA59G0.htm . dead . August 21, 2010 . BusinessWeek . August 11, 2010 . August 23, 2014.
  30. Web site: Jesse . Zwick . The Earmark Wars Continue in Arkansas . The Washington Independent . August 31, 2010 . August 23, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140826122626/http://washingtonindependent.com/96282/the-earmark-wars-continue-in-arkansas . August 26, 2014 . dead . mdy-all .
  31. https://www.c-span.org/video/?295985-1/arkansas-senate-debate c-span
  32. https://www.c-span.org/video/?295985-1/arkansas-senate-debate c-span
  33. Web site: Senate . https://web.archive.org/web/20101121153907/http://cookpolitical.com/charts/senate/raceratings_2010-11-01_12-08-06.php . dead . November 21, 2010 . . October 9, 2010.
  34. Web site: Senate Ratings . . October 9, 2010.
  35. Web site: 2010 Senate Ratings . October 9, 2010 . . October 28, 2010 . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028092918/http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2010-senate/ . dead .
  36. Web site: Battle for the Senate . October 9, 2010 . RealClearPolitics.
  37. Web site: Race Ratings Chart: Senate . . October 9, 2010 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101028234525/http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=ratings-senate . October 28, 2010 .
  38. Web site: 2010 House and Senate Campaign Finance for Arkansas . fec.gov . July 25, 2010 .
  39. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/questions/questions_arkansas_senate_october_28_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  40. http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2010/images/10/20/topstate7.pdf CNN/Time/Opinion Research
  41. https://web.archive.org/web/20101023174730/http://arkansasnews.com/2010/10/20/poll-boozman-leads-lincoln-by-21-points Mason-Dixon
  42. http://www.talkbusiness.net/assets/files/SenGovFinalPoll.pdf Talk Business
  43. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/election_2010_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  44. https://web.archive.org/web/20110629121838/http://www.ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=9945 Reuters/Ipsos
  45. https://web.archive.org/web/20100917072340/http://arkansasnews.com/2010/09/15/poll-boozman-continues-to-hold-17-point-lead-over-lincoln Mason-Dixon
  46. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_arkansas_senate_august_18_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  47. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/election_2010_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  48. https://web.archive.org/web/20100721233745/http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=9753 Reuters/Ipsos
  49. https://web.archive.org/web/20100720075221/http://talkbusiness.net/article/TALK-BUSINESS-POLL-BOOZMAN-HAS-BIG-LEAD-BEEBE-UP-BY-9/617 Talk Business
  50. http://www.magellanstrategies.com/web/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Magellan-AR-US-Senate-Kagan-Nomination-Press-Release-071910.pdf Magellan Strategies
  51. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_arkansas_senate_june_15_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  52. http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/5/26/AR/528 Research 2000
  53. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/toplines/toplines_2010_arkansas_senate_race_may_19_2010 Rasmussen Reports
  54. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/5/13/12462/7480 Research 2000
  55. http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2010/4/29/861915/-AR-Sen:-Bill-Halter-is-within-single-digits-of-Blanche-Lincoln Research 2000
  56. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/election_2010_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  57. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/election_2010_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  58. http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2010/3/24/AR/465 Research 2000
  59. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/election_2010_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  60. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_2010/election_2010_senate_elections/arkansas/election_2010_arkansas_senate Rasmussen Reports
  61. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AR_202424.pdf Public Policy Polling