2012 United States Senate election in Arizona explained

Election Name:	2012 United States Senate election in Arizona
Country:	Arizona
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2006 United States Senate election in Arizona
Previous Year:	2006
Next Election:	2018 United States Senate election in Arizona
Next Year:	2018
Turnout:	52.9% (voting eligible)^[1]
Election Date:	November 6, 2012
Image1:	File:Jeff Flake, official portrait, 112th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Jeff Flake
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,104,457
Percentage1:	49.23%
Nominee2:	Richard Carmona
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	1,036,542
Percentage2:	46.20%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Jon Kyl
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Jeff Flake
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2012 United States Senate election in Arizona was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Senator Jon Kyl (R), the Senate Minority Whip, decided to retire instead of seeking a fourth term.^[2] U.S. Representative Jeff Flake won the open seat. As of 2024, this was the last time that a Republican won Arizona's Class 1 Senate seat. This is also the last time an Arizona Republican was elected to and served a full term in the US Senate.

Kyl later served in the Senate again in 2018 from September 5 to December 31; he was appointed to Arizona's other Senate seat after John McCain's August 2018 death and served until his resignation.

Republican primary

The filing deadline for Republican candidates was June 1, 2012, and the primary election took place on August 28, 2012.

Candidates

Declared

• Wil Cardon, CEO of a real estate investment firm^{[3] [4]}
• Jeff Flake, U.S. Representative from the 6th district^[5]
• Bryan Hackbarth, former mayor of Youngtown^[6]
• Clair Van Steenwyk, conservative radio host^[7]

Withdrew

• Doug McKee, businessman^[8]

Declined

• Fife Symington III, former Arizona governor^[9]
• Joe Arpaio, Maricopa County sheriff^[10] (running for re-election as Sheriff)
• Jan Brewer, Arizona governor^[11]
• Trent Franks, U.S. representative^[12]
• J. D. Hayworth, former U.S. representative^[13]
• Jon Kyl, incumbent U.S. senator
• Sarah Palin, former governor of Alaska (2006–2009) and nominee for Vice President of the United States in 2008^[14]
• Ben Quayle, U.S. representative^{[15] [16]}
• David Schweikert, U.S. representative^[17]
• John Shadegg, former U.S. representative^[18]

Polling

Poll source				Wil Cardon	Jeff Flake	Bryan Hackbarth	Doug McKee	Clair	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[19]	May 17–20, 2012	421	± 4.8%	20%		42%	3%	1%	2%	—	33%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[20]	February 17–19, 2012	412	± 4.8%	7%		56%	5%	1%	1%	—	31%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[21]	November 17–20, 2011	400	± 4.9%	7%		53%	5%	1%	2%	—	33%
align=left	Magellan Strategies^[22]	November 14–15, 2011	722	± 3.6%	4%		52%	1%	1%	2%	8%	32%

Results

Democratic primary

Former Surgeon General Richard Carmona was the only candidate for the Democratic nomination, receiving all 289,881 votes cast in the primary election.^[23]

Candidates

Declared

• Richard Carmona, former Surgeon General of the United States^[24]

Withdrew

• Don Bivens, former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party^[25]
• David Ruben, physician^{[26] [27]}

Declined

• Dennis Burke, United States Attorney^{[28] [29]}
• Phil Gordon, Mayor of Phoenix^[30]
• Ed Pastor, U.S. Representative^[31]
• Warren Stewart, civil rights leader^[32]
• Gabby Giffords, former U.S. Representative^[33]
• Mark Kelly, astronaut and husband of Gabrielle Giffords, (later elected to Arizona's Class 3 Senate seat in 2020).^[34]
• Janet Napolitano, U.S. Secretary of Homeland Security and former Arizona governor^[35]
• Jim Pederson, former Arizona Democratic Party chairman and 2006 Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate^[36]

Results

General election

Candidates

• Jeff Flake (Republican), U.S. Representative
• Richard Carmona (Democratic), former U.S. Surgeon General
• Michael F. Meyer (independent)
• Marc J. Victor (Libertarian), attorney

Debates

There were three debates before the election. The first was in Phoenix on October 10, 2012, the second in Tucson on October 15 and the last was in Yuma on October 25.External links

• Complete video of debate, October 10, 2012 – C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 15, 2012 – C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 25, 2012 – C-SPAN

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
	Jeff Flake (R)	$9,026,951	$9,557,420	$97,360	$0
	Richard Carmona (D)	$6,459,739	$6,373,544	$86,195	$0
	Marc J. Victor (L)	$8,336	$8,334	$0	$0
Source: Federal Election Commission^[38] ^[39] ^[40] ^[41] ^[42]

Top contributors

Richard Carmona	Contribution	Jeff Flake	Contribution
University of Arizona	$54,100	Club for Growth	$1,000,112
League of Conservation Voters	$53,148	Senate Conservatives Fund	$176,484
Canyon Ranch	$31,400	US Airways	$54,300
Clorox Company	$25,000	Freeport-McMoRan	$53,750
Arizona State University	$22,600	Cancer Treatment Centers of America	$40,500
Banner Health	$18,500	Knight Transportation	$35,500
Lewis and Roca	$17,100	Pinnacle West Capital	$35,500
Taser International	$15,500	Marriott International	$29,750
Coca-Cola Co	$15,286	Shamrock Farms	$24,750
Pederson Group	$15,000	Services Group of America	$15,650
Source: OpenSecrets^[43]

Top industries

Richard Carmona	Contribution	Jeff Flake	Contribution	Ian Gilyeat	Contribution
Retired	$653,066	Republican/Conservative	$1,146,046	Retired	$250
Lawyers/Law Firms	$409,395	Retired	$643,260	Lawyers/Law Firms	$250
Health Professionals	$313,135	Leadership PACs	$502,352
Leadership PACs	$279,530	Real Estate	$302,572
Colleges/Universities	$189,270	Financial Institutions	$279,670
Real Estate	$145,000	Lawyers/Law Firms	$200,702
Business Services	$122,749	Misc Finance	$188,122
Financial Institutions	$118,500	Mining	$170,602
Democratic/Liberal	$111,889	Health Professionals	$164,607
Lobbyists	$105,172	Oil & Gas	$147,860
Source: OpenSecrets^[44]

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[45]		November 1, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[46]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[47]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[48]		November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source				Jeff Flake (R)	Richard Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[49]	November 2–3, 2012	1,080	± 3%		51%	46%	—	3%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[50]	October 21, 2012	500	± 4.5%		50%	44%	3%	3%
align=left	Rocky Mountain Poll^[51]	October 4–10, 2012	523	± 4.4%	40%		44%	—	16%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[52]	October 1–3, 2012	595	± 4%	43%		45%	—	12%
align=left	HighGround/Moore^[53]	September 25–26, 2012	500	± 4%		43%	40%	5%	11%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[54]	September 25, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	41%	3%	9%
align=left	LCV/Public Policy Polling^[55]	September 7–9, 2012	993	± n/a%		44%	43%	—	13%
align=left	LCV/Public Policy Polling^[56]	July 23–25, 2012	833	± 3.4%	38%	38%	—	25%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[57]	June 26, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	31%	5%	17%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[58]	June 4–5, 2012	791	± 3.5%		43%	41%	—	16%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	500	± 4.4%		48%	35%	—	17%
align=left	Magellan Strategies^[59]	April 30 – May 2, 2012	909	± 3.3%		44%	40%	—	16%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports^[60]	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	34%	4%	16%
align=left	NBC News/Marist^[61]	February 19–20, 2012	2,487	± 2.0%		42%	29%	—	28%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[62]	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%		46%	35%	—	19%
align=left	Public Policy Polling^[63]	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%		40%	36%	—	24%

Poll source				Wil Cardon (R)	Richard Carmona (D)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%		35%	33%	—	32%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%		37%	33%	—	30%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%		39%	38%	3%	20%
align=left	Magellan Strategies	April 30 – May 2, 2012	909	± 3.3%		41%	40%	—	19%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	500	± 4.4%		40%	37%	—	23%

Republican primary

Democratic primary

with Don Bivens

Poll source				Wil Cardon (R)	Don Bivens (D)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%		35%	27%	—		37%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%		38%	32%	—	31%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%		42%	30%	4%	24%

Poll source				Jeff Flake (R)	Don Bivens (D)	Other	Undecided
align=left	Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	± 4.4%		42%	32%	—	26%
align=left	Public Policy Polling	February 17–19, 2012	743	± 3.6%		46%	35%	—	19%
align=left	Rasmussen Reports	March 13, 2012	500	± 4.5%		47%	30%	3%	20%

with J.D. Hayworth

with Jeff Flake

with Jon Kyl

with Sarah Palin

Results by congressional districts

Despite losing, Carmona carried 5 of the 9 congressional districts.^[66]

District	Carmona	Flake	Representative
		49.11%	46.32%		Ann Kirkpatrick
		51.52%	45.03%		Ron Barber
		63.08%	32.79%
		33.36%	60.94%		Paul Gosar
		35.52%	60.06%		Matt Salmon
		40.32%	55.35%		David Schweikert
		71.87%	23.14%
		38.9%	56.29%		Trent Franks
		51.77%	43.39%		Kyrsten Sinema

See also

• 2012 United States Senate elections
• 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona

External links

• Arizona Secretary of State – Elections
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation
• Candidate issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Richard Carmona for U.S. Senate
• Jeff Flake for U.S. Senate
• Ian Gilyeat for U.S. Senate
• Marc J. Victor For Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: 2012 General Election Turnout Rates . . Dr. Michael McDonald . February 9, 2013 . April 3, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130424003112/http://elections.gmu.edu/Turnout_2012G.html . April 24, 2013 . dead . mdy-all .
2. Web site: Sen. Jon Kyl announces his retirement from Senate. February 10, 2011. February 10, 2011. Politico. David. Catanese. Jennifer. Epstein.
3. News: Catanese. David. Self funder to primary Jeff Flake. August 8, 2011. Politico. August 5, 2011. Scott Wong.
4. News: Trygstad. Kyle. Flake Draws Wealthy GOP Primary Opponent. August 8, 2011. Roll Call. August 8, 2011. September 16, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110916132118/http://www.rollcall.com/issues/57_21/flake_draws_wealthy_gop_primary_opponent-208062-1.html. dead.
5. News: Jeff Flake announces he'll run for Kyl seat. February 14, 2011. February 14, 2011. Associated Press.
6. Web site: Paid for by Bryan Hackbarth for United States Senate. brian4senate.com. April 12, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20120111001458/http://brian4senate.com/. January 11, 2012. dead.
7. Web site: Senate hopefuls' fundraising revealed for 3rd quarter. October 16, 2011. October 26, 2011. The Arizona Republic. Dan. Nowicki.
8. Web site: Local man launches U.S. Senate campaign. June 3, 2011. June 6, 2011. Mohave Valley Daily News.
9. Web site: Fife eyes Senate, floats NFL star Kurt Warner. February 10, 2011. February 10, 2011. Politico. Alexander. Burns.
10. Web site: Battling DOJ, Arpaio to run again. politico.com. April 12, 2018.
11. Web site: Brewer Won't Run for Kyl's Seat. February 11, 2011. February 11, 2011. National Journal. Sean. Sullivan. https://web.archive.org/web/20110319174944/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/02/brewer-wont-run.php. March 19, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
12. Web site: Franks not running for Senate in Arizona. April 1, 2011. April 1, 2011. National Journal. Sean. Sullivan. https://web.archive.org/web/20110515122017/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/04/franks-not-runn.php. May 15, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
13. Web site: Rumor Mill: J.D. Hayworth Will NOT Run For Senate -- Again. April 28, 2011. November 15, 2011. Phoenix New Times. James. King.
14. Web site: staff . CBS Interactive . 2011-06-06 . Palin denies new Ariz. home is for Senate run - CBS News . 2024-01-28 . www.cbsnews.com . en-US.
15. Web site: Early, Long Whip Race Will Test GOP Cohesion. February 12, 2011. February 13, 2011. Roll Call. David M.. Drucker. February 14, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110214111335/http://www.rollcall.com/news/-203351-1.html. dead.
16. Web site: Ben Quayle Staying Put in House. February 11, 2011. February 13, 2011. U.S. News & World Report. Paul. Bedard.
17. Web site: With Kyl leaving, we at least know some who won't be seeking his seat. February 13, 2011. February 13, 2011. Arizona Daily Star. Rhonda. Bodfield. Andrea. Kelly.
18. News: Shadegg won't run for Kyl's Senate seat, Trent Franks looking at run. Mike. Sunnucks. Phoenix Business Journal. February 11, 2011. February 11, 2011.
19. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_052212.pdf Public Policy Polling
20. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_220.pdf Public Policy Polling
21. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZPA_1121925.pdf Public Policy Polling
22. http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/AZ-2012-US-Senate-Republican-Primary-Election-Survey-Topline-Results-111611.pdf Magellan Strategies
23. Web site: Archived copy . January 6, 2014 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20131112230133/http://www.azsos.gov/election/2012/Primary/Canvass.pdf . November 12, 2013 .
24. Web site: Carmona Will Run in Arizona. November 10, 2011. November 10, 2011. National Journal. Sean. Sullivan. https://web.archive.org/web/20111112181213/http://hotlineoncall.nationaljournal.com/archives/2011/11/carmona-will-ru.php. November 12, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
25. Web site: Arizona: Bivens Drops Out, Democratic Field Clears. Abby. Livingston. March 28, 2012. Roll Call. April 12, 2018.
26. Web site: Sanders . Rebekah . U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake files signatures for primary . The Arizona Republic . May 21, 2012 . May 24, 2012.
27. News: Democrat Ruben ends US Senate campaign. McCombs. Brady. Arizona Daily Star. June 9, 2012. June 16, 2012.
28. News: Arizona U.S. Attorney for Senate?. Fahima. Haque. Main Justice. February 11, 2011. February 14, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110816003646/http://www.mainjustice.com/2011/02/11/arizona-u-s-attorney-for-senate/. August 16, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
29. News: Gabrielle Giffords was planning possible Senate run before shooting. Chris. Cillizza. WashingtonPost.com. February 10, 2011. February 10, 2011.
30. Web site: Phoenix mayor ponders a run for Kyl's seat; Luis Gonzalez not interested. February 10, 2011. February 10, 2011. Phoenix Business Journal. Mike. Sunnucks.
31. Web site: Arizona Democrat considering Senate run in absence of Rep. Giffords. March 2, 2011. July 23, 2011. The Hill. Sean J.. Miller.
32. Web site: Arizona civil-rights leader weighs Senate run. November 20, 2011. November 21, 2011. The Arizona Republic. Dan. Nowicki.
33. https://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hFOgxmZI1l84ZRGvMEa5ywN5Njmg?docId=3383fa69083f479f80743e3012646b98
34. Web site: Mark Kelly: I'm not running for office – Jennifer Epstein . Politico.Com . July 11, 2011.
35. Web site: Janet Napolitano No-Go on Senate Run; Wants to Focus on Border Security. February 18, 2011. February 18, 2011. Phoenix New Times. James. King. February 19, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20110219171619/http://blogs.phoenixnewtimes.com/valleyfever/2011/02/janet_napolitano_no-go_on_sena.php. dead.
36. Web site: Pederson won't run for Kyl's Senate seat. February 16, 2011. February 16, 2011. The Arizona Republic. Dan. Nowicki.
37. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0509.pdf Public Policy Polling
38. Web site: Carmona Campaign Finances. fec.gov. April 12, 2018.
39. Web site: Flake Campaign Finances. fec.gov. April 12, 2018.
40. Web site: Kansas District 04 2012 Race . OpenSecrets.
41. Web site: Victor Campaign Finances. fec.gov. April 12, 2018.
42. Web site: Meyer Campaign Finances. fec.gov. April 12, 2018.
43. Web site: Top Contributors 2012 Race: Arizona Senate. OpenSecrets.
44. Web site: Top Industries 2012 Race: Arizona Senate . OpenSecrets.
45. Web site: 2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012 . The Cook Political Report . September 20, 2018 . August 29, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20180829035855/https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/139117 . dead .
46. Web site: 2012 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 20, 2018.
47. Web site: 2012 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 20, 2018.
48. Web site: 2012 Elections Map – Battle for the Senate 2012 . Real Clear Politics . September 20, 2018.
49. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling
50. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_senate_elections/arizona/election_2012_arizona_senate Rasmussen Reports
51. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2012/BRC_AZ_0425.pdf Rocky Mountain Poll
52. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1003.pdf Public Policy Polling
53. http://www.azhighground.com/?p=913 HighGround/Moore
54. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/arizona/arizona_senate_flake_r_47_carmona_d_41 Rasmussen Reports
55. http://images.politico.com/global/2012/09/arizonaresultsivr2.html LCV/Public Policy Polling
56. https://web.archive.org/web/20120803014745/http://www.lcv.org/elections/research/arizona-senate-poll.pdf LCV/Public Policy Polling
57. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/arizona/arizona_senate_flake_r_47_carmona_d_31 Rasmussen Reports
58. https://web.archive.org/web/20120828124203/http://projectnewamerica.com/PNAAZPollJune2012.pdf Public Policy Polling
59. https://web.archive.org/web/20120514071248/http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Magellan-Arizona-General-Election-Survey-Release-050312.pdf Magellan Strategies
60. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/election_2012_archive/arizona/arizona_senate_top_gop_candidates_lead_democratic_challengers Rasmussen Reports
61. http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/AZpolls/AZ120219/Republican%20Primary%202012/Complete%20February%2022nd%202012%20Arizona%20NBC%20News-Marist%20Poll%20Tables.pdf NBC News/Marist
62. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_0221.pdf Public Policy Polling
63. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZ_1123424.pdf Public Policy Polling
64. https://web.archive.org/web/20120828101301/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0504819.pdf Public Policy Polling
65. https://web.archive.org/web/20120831230958/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_AZ_0201925.pdf Public Policy Polling
66. Web site: Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts. Daily Kos. 11 August 2020.