2016 United States Senate election in Alabama explained

See also: 2016 United States Senate elections.

Election Name:	2016 United States Senate election in Alabama
Country:	Alabama
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2010 United States Senate election in Alabama
Previous Year:	2010
Next Election:	2022 United States Senate election in Alabama
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Image1:	File:Richard Shelby, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:	Richard Shelby
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	1,335,104
Percentage1:	63.96%
Nominee2:	Ron Crumpton
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	748,709
Percentage2:	35.87%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:	Richard Shelby
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Richard Shelby
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee.^[1] Shelby won re-election with 63.96% of the vote. Despite an overwhelming victory statewide, this marked Shelby's first and only race as either a Republican or Democrat in which he failed to carry Jefferson County, home of Birmingham, the state's largest city. In Jefferson, Crumpton took 51.99% (156,574 votes) to Shelby's 47.86% (144,136 votes);^[2] this shift was due in part to increased Democratic support in core urban areas across the nation.

Background

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Republican primary

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that did not happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015.^[1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor Jr., former governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange.^{[3] [4] [5]} Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election.

Candidates

Declared

• Richard Shelby, incumbent U.S. Senator since 1987^[6]
• Marcus Bowman, Uber driver^[7]
• John Martin, pilot and candidate for AL-02 in 2008^[7]
• Jonathan McConnell, businessman^{[7] [8] [9]}
• Shadrack McGill, former state senator and candidate for Jackson County Revenue Commissioner in 2014^{[7] [10]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Marcus Bowman	John Martin	Shadrack McGill	Jonathan McConnell	Richard Shelby	Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)^[11]	January 29–30, 2016	1,299	± 2.7%	1%	1%	2%	25%	align=center	55%	16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)^[12]	January 25–26, 2016	600	± 4.0%	1%	1%	1%	9%	align=center	75%	13%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)	December 2015	–	–	1%	2%	3%	15%	align=center	64%	21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)	November 2015	–	–	1%	2%	1%	5%	align=center	71%	20%

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Shelby	Someone Else	Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)	January 29–30, 2016	1,299	±2.7%	align=center	55%	29%	16%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)	December 2015	?	±?%	align=center	64%	15%	21%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)	October 2015	?	±?%	align=center	53%	22%	26%

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Ron Crumpton, marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014^{[9] [13]}
• Charles Nana, process engineer^{[9] [14]}

Failed to qualify

• Reginald Hill, candidate for Huntsville School Board in 2012 and write-in candidate for AL-05 in 2014^[15]

Declined

• Stephen Black, non-profit executive^[3]
• Bobby Bright, former U.S. Representative^[3]
• Parker Griffith, former U.S. Representative, and nominee for Governor of Alabama in 2014^[3]
• Sue Bell Cobb, former chief justice of the Supreme Court of Alabama^[3]
• Marsha Folsom, businesswoman, former First Lady of Alabama, and nominee for Alabama's 4th congressional district in 2000^[16]
• Walt Maddox, Mayor of Tuscaloosa^[3]
• Terri Sewell, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)^[3]

Primary results

General election

Candidates

• Richard Shelby (R), incumbent senator
• Ron Crumpton (D), marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014
• Charles Nana (D) (write-in), process engineer^[17] (previously sought the Democratic nomination)

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[18]		November 2, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[19]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[20]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos^[21]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[22]		November 7, 2016

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Richard Shelby (R)	Ron Crumpton (D)	Undecided
SurveyMonkey^[23]	November 1–7, 2016	1,131	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	38%	5%
SurveyMonkey^[24]	October 31 – November 6, 2016	971	± 4.6%	align=center	58%	37%	5%
SurveyMonkey^[25]	October 28 – November 3, 2016	722	± 4.6%	align=center	57%	38%	5%
SurveyMonkey^[26]	October 27 – November 2, 2016	621	± 4.6%	align=center	58%	37%	5%
SurveyMonkey^[27]	October 26 – November 1, 2016	503	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	40%	4%
SurveyMonkey^[28]	October 25–31, 2016	485	± 4.6%	align=center	60%	36%	4%
Google Consumer Surveys^[29]	October 18–20, 2016	474	± 4.2%	align=center	71%	26%	3% Results Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic Jefferson (largest municipality: Birmingham) By congressional district Shelby won 6 of 7 congressional districts.^[30] District Shelby Crumpton Representative 65% 34% Bradley Byrne 66% 34% Martha Roby 66% 34% Mike Rogers 79% 21% Robert Aderholt 67% 33% Mo Brooks 73% 27% Gary Palmer 31% 69% Terri Sewell External links Official campaign websites Richard Shelby (R) for Senate Ron Crumpton (D) for Senate

Notes and References

1. Web site: Could the Tea Party challenge Sen. Richard Shelby? Sure, but there are $17 million reasons not to. AL.com. June 30, 2014. July 1, 2014. Charles. Dean.
2. Web site: June 5, 2020. Alabama Election Results. Alabama Secretary of State.
3. News: Livingston. Abby. Farm Team: Long Line Forming for GOP Hopefuls Looking to Move Up in Alabama. June 19, 2014. Roll Call. February 6, 2013.
4. Web site: 16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate. December 29, 2014. December 29, 2014. Politico. Cheney. Kyle.
5. News: Who is next? Five people who could be governor after the 2018 election . Jim Stinson . AL.com . September 18, 2014 . September 19, 2014.
6. Web site: Sen. Richard Shelby is in for 2016 and that changes Alabama's political landscape. AL.com. Gore. Leada. January 29, 2015. November 6, 2015.
7. Web site: Here's what you need to know about the four Republicans challenging Richard Shelby. Yellowhammer News. Sims. Cliff. November 6, 2015. November 8, 2015.
8. Web site: Alabama's Richard Shelby Gets a Primary Challenge. Roll Call. Pathé. Simone. November 6, 2015. November 6, 2015. November 9, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151109161617/http://atr.rollcall.com/alabamas-richard-shelby-gets-primary-challenge/. dead.
9. Web site: Sen. Richard Shelby will face Republican challengers. Montgomery Advertiser. Troyan. Mary. November 7, 2015. November 6, 2015.
10. Web site: Shadrack McGill among GOP challengers to Shelby. AL.com. Koplowitz. Howard. November 6, 2015. November 8, 2015.
11. https://web.archive.org/web/20160301195900/http://www.mcconnell2016.com/new_survey_indicates_jonathan_mcconnell_shelby_likely_headed_to_a_runoff Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell)
12. https://www.scribd.com/doc/298032698/McLaughlin-Associates-Poll-on-AL-SEN McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby)
13. Web site: Crumpton Announces Bid to Unseat Shelby. Alabama Political Reporter. April 15, 2015. April 15, 2015. Brandon. Moseley. https://web.archive.org/web/20150415170839/http://alreporter.com/archives/archive-2014/march-2014/146-state/7580-crumpton-announces-bid-to-unseat-shelby.html. April 15, 2015. dead.
14. Web site: Shelby Faces Three Challengers. Alabama Political Reporter. Brandon. Moseley. November 6, 2015. November 6, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151109015952/http://www.alreporter.com/archives/2015/146-state/8489-shelby-faces-three-challengers.html. November 9, 2015. dead.
15. Web site: Huntsville man kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate. WAFF. November 3, 2015. November 6, 2015.
16. News: Who are some Democrats who might run for governor in 2018. Charles J. Dean. AL.com . June 9, 2014 . November 13, 2014.
17. Web site: Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate. March 21, 2016. March 21, 2016. Brandon. Moseley. Alabama Political Reporter.
18. Web site: 2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016 . The Cook Political Report . March 26, 2021.
19. Web site: 2016 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . September 19, 2016.
20. Web site: 2016 Senate Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . November 3, 2016.
21. Web site: Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version . Daily Kos . March 27, 2021.
22. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2016 . Real Clear Politics . October 28, 2016.
23. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view SurveyMonkey
24. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view SurveyMonkey
25. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view SurveyMonkey
26. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view SurveyMonkey
27. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view SurveyMonkey
28. https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view SurveyMonkey
29. https://medium.com/@alexanderpower/new-senate-polls-in-florida-georgia-and-alabama-28c8580117fb#.ithzyvnsi Google Consumer Surveys
30. Web site: DRA 2020. Daves Redistricting.