| Election Name: | 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New York |
| Country: | New York (state) |
| Flag Year: | 1909 |
| Type: | legislative |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2008 United States House of Representatives elections in New York |
| Previous Year: | 2008 |
| Election Date: | November 2, 2010 |
| Next Election: | 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in New York |
| Next Year: | 2012 |
| Seats For Election: | All 29 New York seats to the United States House of Representatives elections |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Last Election1: | 26 |
| Seats Before1: | 27 |
| Seats1: | 21 |
| Seat Change1: | 6 |
| Popular Vote1: | 2,600,900 |
| Percentage1: | 57.85% |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Last Election2: | 3 |
| Seats Before2: | 2 |
| Seats2: | 8 |
| Seat Change2: | 6 |
| Popular Vote2: | 1,854,302 |
| Percentage2: | 41.25% |
The 2010 congressional elections in New York were held on November 2, 2010[1] to determine representation from the state of New York in the United States House of Representatives. New York had 29 seats in the House.[2] Representatives are elected to two-year terms.[3]
The election marked the first time that New York used electronic voting,[4] as the state was the last to implement the process under the Help America Vote Act. Democrats had gained an additional seat in a 2009 special election in the 23rd district, bringing Republicans to an all-time low of 2 seats in the New York delegation leading into the election.
Republican candidates prevailed in a total of eight congressional races in New York, while Democratic candidates prevailed in the other 21;[5] [6] [7] thus, the GOP gained a total of six House seats in New York.[6] The closest race occurred in New York's 1st congressional district, where Republican candidate Randy Altschuler did not concede to Democratic incumbent Congressman Tim Bishop until December 8.[6]
Results of the 2010 United States House of Representatives elections in New York by district:[8]
| scope=col rowspan=3 | District | scope=col colspan=2 | Democratic | scope=col colspan=2 | Republican | scope=col colspan=2 | Others | scope=col | Total | scope=col rowspan=3 | Result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| scope=col colspan=2 style="background:" | ! | scope=col colspan=2 style="background:" | ! | scope=col colspan=2 | ! | scope=col colspan=2 | |||||||
| scope=col data-sort-type="number" | Votes ! | scope=col data-sort-type="number" | % ! | scope=col data-sort-type="number" | Votes ! | scope=col data-sort-type="number" | % ! | scope=col data-sort-type="number" | Votes ! | scope=col data-sort-type="number" | % ! | scope=col data-sort-type="number" | Votes |
| 98,316 | 50.15% | 97,723 | 49.85% | 0 | 0.00% | 196,039 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 94,594 | 56.35% | 72,029 | 42.91% | 1,256 | 0.75% | 167,879 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 51,346 | 28.05% | 131,674 | 71.95% | 0 | 0.00% | 183,020 | Republican Hold | ||||||
| 94,483 | 53.62% | 81,718 | 46.38% | 0 | 0.00% | 176,201 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 72,239 | 63.07% | 41,493 | 36.23% | 798 | 0.70% | 114,530 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 85,096 | 87.80% | 11,826 | 12.20% | 0 | 0.00% | 96,922 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 71,247 | 80.57% | 16,145 | 18.26% | 1,038 | 1.17% | 88,430 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 98,839 | 75.54% | 31,996 | 24.46% | 0 | 0.00% | 130,835 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 67,011 | 60.84% | 43,129 | 39.16% | 0 | 0.00% | 110,140 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 95,485 | 91.15% | 7,419 | 7.08% | 1,853 | 1.77% | 104,757 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 104,297 | 90.57% | 10,858 | 9.43% | 0 | 0.00% | 115,155 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 68,624 | 93.87% | 0 | 0.00% | 4,482 | 6.13% | 73,106 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| District 13 | 60,773 | 47.96% | 65,024 | 51.31% | 929 | 0.73% | 126,726 | Republican Gain | |||||
| 107,327 | 75.11% | 32,065 | 22.44% | 3,508 | 2.45% | 142,900 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 91,225 | 80.42% | 11,754 | 10.36% | 10,450 | 9.21% | 113,429 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 61,642 | 95.72% | 2,758 | 4.28% | 0 | 0.00% | 64,400 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 95,346 | 72.90% | 29,792 | 22.78% | 5,661 | 4.33% | 130,799 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 115,619 | 62.15% | 70,413 | 37.85% | 0 | 0.00% | 186,032 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| District 19 | 98,766 | 47.32% | 109,956 | 52.68% | 0 | 0.00% | 208,722 | Republican Gain | |||||
| District 20 | 107,075 | 45.13% | 130,178 | 54.87% | 0 | 0.00% | 237,253 | Republican Gain | |||||
| 124,889 | 59.29% | 85,752 | 40.71% | 0 | 0.00% | 210,641 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 98,661 | 52.66% | 88,687 | 47.34% | 0 | 0.00% | 187,348 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| District 23 | 82,232 | 47.54% | 80,237 | 46.39% | 10,507 | '6.07% | 172,976 | Democratic Gain | |||||
| District 24 | 89,809 | 46.92% | 101,599 | 53.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 191,408 | Republican Gain | |||||
| District 25 | 103,954 | 49.84% | 104,602 | 50.16% | 0 | 0.00% | 208,556 | Republican Gain | |||||
| 54,307 | 26.39% | 151,449 | 73.61% | 0 | 0.00% | 205,756 | Republican Hold | ||||||
| 119,085 | 60.94% | 76,320 | 39.06% | 0 | 0.00% | 195,405 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| 102,514 | 64.92% | 55,392 | 35.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 157,906 | Democratic Hold | ||||||
| District 29 | 86,099 | 43.39% | 112,314 | 56.61% | 0 | 0.00% | 198,413 | Republican Gain | |||||
| Total | 2,600,900 | 57.85% | 1,854,302 | 41.25% | 40,482 | 0.90% | 4,495,684 |
See also: New York's 1st congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence incumbent Tim Bishop was challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Randy Altschuler, a local businessman. It was the last undecided congressional election in the country when Altschuler conceded on December 8, 2010.[9]
In the Republican primary, Altschuler won against George Demos, an attorney and prosecutor who worked on Bernard Madoff's case. State Republican Party chairman Edward F. Cox was allegedly trying to dissuade primary challengers to his son Christopher Nixon Cox, grandson of former President Richard Nixon.[10] Bishop had roughly $1 million cash on hand, while Altschuler had raised $800,000.[11] A February 2010 SurveyUSA poll showed Bishop with a slight 47% to 45% lead over Altschuler.[12]
On election night, Bishop had a 3,500 vote lead. However, after voting machines were rechecked, Altschuler had a 400-vote lead. Following a partial recount of absentee ballots, Bishop reportedly held a 15-vote lead on November 19.[13] Altschuler conceded the election on December 8, 2010; Bishop led by a 263-vote margin.[14]
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Tim Bishop (D) | Randy Altschuler (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena[15] | October 6–11, 2010 | align=center | 51% | 39% | - | |
| Survey USA[16] | January 16–18, 2010 | align=center | 47% | 45% | 8% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates[17] | November 18–19, 2009 | align=center | 46% | 26% | - |
See also: New York's 2nd congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence Party incumbent Steve Israel ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee John Gomez and Constitution Party nominee Anthony Tolda. Gomez, a good friend of author Mark Levin, was a favorite of the Tea Party movement. An attorney and former radio personality, he was encouraged to run by Sean Hannity, a childhood friend.[18] Gomez was endorsed by Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin.[19] Israel won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 3rd congressional district. Republican, Conservative, Independence and Tax Revolt Party incumbent Peter T. King ran for reelection, challenged by Democratic nominee Howard Kudler. The district was located in Nassau County on Long Island and was considered a safe Republican district. King won reelection on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 4th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Carolyn McCarthy was challenged by Republican, Conservative, Independence and Tax Revolt Party nominee Fran Becker. McCarthy won reelection on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 5th congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence incumbent Gary Ackerman was challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Dr. James Milano and Libertarian and Tax Revolt Party nominee Elizabeth Berney. The district, which stretched from eastern Queens across the Town of North Hempstead, was historically Democratic, and Ackerman won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 6th congressional district. Democratic incumbent Gregory Meeks ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Asher Taub. Meeks won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 7th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Joe Crowley ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Ken Reynolds[20] and Green Party nominee Anthony Gronowicz.[21] Crowley won the general election.
See also: New York's 8th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Jerry Nadler ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Susan Kone. The district covers parts of Brooklyn and Manhattan. Nadler won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 9th congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence Party incumbent Anthony Weiner ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Bob Turner. Weiner won the general election on November 2, 2010. Later, after Weiner resigned due to a sex scandal, Turner won the seat in September 2011.[22]
See also: New York's 10th congressional district. Democratic incumbent Ed Towns ran for reelection, challenged by Republican nominee Diana Muñiz and Conservative Party nominee Ernest Johnson. Towns won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 11th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Yvette Clarke ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Hugh C. Carr. The 11th district is wholly within the borough of Brooklyn. Clarke won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 12th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Nydia Velazquez ran for reelection, challenged by Conservative Party nominee Alice Gaffney. Velazquez won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 13th congressional district. Democratic and Independence incumbent Michael McMahon was challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Michael Grimm, a former FBI Special Agent, and Libertarian nominee Tom Vendittelli. The 13th district covers the entire Staten Island and parts of south Brooklyn.
In the Republican primary, Grimm ran against the director of government relations for the Climate Group Michael Allegretti.[23] Vito Fossella had earlier been rumored to be considering a comeback, but did not run.[24] [25] Allegretti had the support of the Republican County Committees of Kings and Richmond Counties. Grimm had the support of the Conservative Party's county committees. According to an April 2010 Global Strategy Group poll, McMahon led Grimm and Allegretti 56% to 23% and 56% to 24%, respectively.[26]
Grimm won the general election, unseating McMahon, on November 2, 2010.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Michael McMahon (D) | Michael Grimm (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barry Zeplowitz & Associates[27] | September 22–23, 2010 | align=center | 46% | 38% | 16% | |
| Global Strategy Group[28] | September 19–22, 2010 | align=center | 51% | 33% | 16% | |
| Global Strategy Group[29] | April 7–11, 2010 | align=center | 56% | 23% | 20% |
See also: New York's 14th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Carolyn Maloney was challenged by Republican nominee David Ryan Brumberg, Conservative Party nominee Timothy J. Healy, and Independence Party nominee Dino L. LaVerghetta. Maloney considered running for Senate against Kirsten Gillibrand, but decided against it. In the Democratic primary, she defeated Reshma Saujani.[30]
Maloney was heavily favored, but the Republicans had held legislative seats in this district as recently as 2002.[31] Maloney won the general election on November 2, 2010.
The district in on the Manhattan East Side and includes portions of Queens.
See also: New York's 15th congressional district.
Democratic and Working Families incumbent Charles Rangel ran for reelection, challenged by Republican, Conservative and Jobs Now Party nominee Michel Faulkner, Independence and Vote People for Change Party nominee Craig Schley, and Socialist Worker nominee Roger Calero.
Rangel, who had served the Harlem-area district since 1971, faced a primary challenge from Adam Clayton Powell IV,[32] Vincent Morgan[33] and labor activist Jonathan Tasini.[34]
Rangel won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 16th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Jose Serrano ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Frank Della Valle. The district lies entirely within the Bronx. Serrano won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 17th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Eliot Engel ran for reelection, challenged by Republican nominee Anthony Mele and Conservative Party nominee York Kleinhandler. The district encompasses parts of the Bronx, Westchester, and Rockland Counties.
Engel won 79% of the vote in 2008, 76% in 2006 and 2004, and 62% in 2002 when he defeated Rockland County Executive C. Scott Vanderhoef. In 2000, he fought back the primary challenge of State Senator Larry Seabrook. Election experts predicted that Engel would post similar numbers in 2010.[35]
Army veteran York Kleinhandler received GOP and Conservative Party endorsements from the party committees in the Bronx, Rockland County and Westchester County.[36] Kleinhandler faced a Republican primary of his own against Tea Party candidate Anthony Mele in September, a primary that brought local Republicans to physical blows and led to police involvement.[37] [38] He was also dogged by accusations "for predatory business practices against senior citizens" in Florida.[37]
Engel won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 18th congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence incumbent Nita Lowey was challenged unsuccessfully by Republican and Conservative Party nominee (and former Republican nominee) Jim Russell and write-in candidate Cortes DeRussy.
Lowey was first elected in 1988 (defeating Joseph J. DioGuardi) and had had few challenges since. Venture capitalist Paul Wasserman, who would have run against her as a Republican, backed out in July 2010. Mark Rosen, seen by many as the strongest competitor, was recalled to military service just as his campaign was gaining traction. Theologian James C. Russell held the Republican and Conservative ballot lines, but the Republican Party disowned him after an essay in which he supported racial segregation surfaced; they had no way of removing him from the ballot.[39] The Republicans then endorsed write-in candidate Cortes DeRussy.[40] Lowey won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 19th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent John Hall ran for reelection, challenged by Republican, Conservative and Independence nominee Nan Hayworth. Hayworth prevailed by six points.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | John Hall (D) | Nan Hayworth (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena[41] | October 23–26, 2010 | align=center | 47% | 46% | 6% | |
| Iona College[42] | October 20, 2010 | 43% | align=center | 44% | 13% | |
| Monmouth University[43] | October 15–18, 2010 | align=center | 49% | 48% | 3% | |
| The Hill/ANGA[44] | October 12–14, 2010 | 43% | 43% | 12% | ||
| Siena | October 5–10, 2010 | 43% | align=center | 46% | 10% | |
| Iona College[45] | October 6, 2010 | 42% | 42% | 16% | ||
| Public Policy Polling[46] | September 11–12, 2010 | 42% | align=center | 44% | 14% |
See also: New York's 20th congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence Party incumbent Scott Murphy was challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Chris Gibson, a retired U.S. Army colonel.[47]
Murphy had won a 2009 special election for the seat which was called after Kirsten Gillibrand was appointed to the United States Senate in January.
Gibson unseated Murphy on November 2, 2010.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Scott Murphy (D) | Chris Gibson (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena[48] | October 23–25, 2010 | 42% | align=center | 51% | - | |
| Public Opinion Strategies[49] | October 17–18, 2010 | 42% | align=center | 44% | - | |
| NRCC internal poll[50] | Early-October, 2010 | 45% | align=center | 48% | - | |
| Grove Insight[51] | September 28–30, 2010 | align=center | 51% | 38% | - | |
| Public Opinion Strategies[52] | September 27–28, 2010 | align=center | 42% | 38% | - | |
| Siena[53] | September 12–14, 2010 | align=center | 54% | 37% | - | |
| American Action Forum[54] | July 28-Aug. 1, 2010 | align=center | 45% | 40% | 15% |
See also: New York's 21st congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence Party incumbent Paul Tonko ran for reelection, challenged by Republican Conservative Party nominee Ted Danz. The district lies in the Capital District of New York, including Albany, Schenectady, and Troy. Tonko won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 22nd congressional district. Democratic incumbent Maurice Hinchey and Working Families and Independence Party candidate ran successfully for reelection, defeating Republican and Conservative Party challenger George Phillips.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Maurice Hinchey (D) | George Phillips (R) | Undecided | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Associates[55] | October 20–21, 2010 | align=center | 51% | 34% | - |
| Magellan[56] | October 19, 2010 | 43% | 43% | - |
See also: New York's 23rd congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Bill Owens ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Independence nominee Matt Doheny.[20] Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman, who lost to Doheny in a Republican primary, was also on the ballot, but he suspended his campaign on October 5, 2010.[57]
Owens had won this seat in a 2009 special election by a margin of 48.7% to 46.5% (3024 votes)[58] over Conservative Party of New York nominee Hoffman after Republican Dierdre Scozzafava suspended her campaign and endorsed Owens less than three days before the election. Prominent Republicans, including former vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and former New York Governor George Pataki endorsed Hoffman instead of Scozzafava, who had been picked by Republican county chairs.[59]
On November 2, 2010, Owens was re-elected to a full term over Doheny with a second plurality win, with Hoffman's vote tally exceeding Owens's margin of victory.[60]
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Bill Owens (D) | Matt Doheny (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena[61] | October 23–26, 2010 | 42% | 42% | - | ||
| Siena | October 5–7, 2010 | align=center | 44% | 39% | - | |
| Public Opinion Strategies[62] | September 22–23, 2010 | 37% | align=center | 51% | - | |
| American Action Forum | July 28-Aug. 1, 2010 | align=center | 41% | 39% | 20% |
See also: New York's 24th congressional district. Democratic incumbent Michael Arcuri lost in 2010 to Republican, Conservative and Independence Party nominee Richard L. Hanna, whom Arcuri had narrowly defeated in 2008.
The Libertarian Party of New York backed 25-year-old Ernest Logan Bell [20] and headed a petition drive to get him onto the ballot.[63]
Hanna won the general election, unseating Arcuri on November 2, 2010.
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Mike Arcuri (D) | Richard L. Hanna (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | October 23–25, 2010 | align=center | 48% | 43% | 10% | |
| The Hill/ANGA | October 12–14, 2010 | align=center | 47% | 37% | 13% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates[64] | October 6–7, 2010 | 43% | align=center | 46% | - | |
| Siena[65] | September 13–15, 2010 | align=center | 48% | 40% | 12% | |
| Benenson Strategy Group[66] † | August 29–31, 2010 | align=center | 50% | 37% | - |
See also: New York's 25th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Dan Maffei ran for reelection, challenged by Republican, Conservative and Independence Party nominee Ann Marie Buerkle.
In the Republican primary, Buerkle defeated farmer and government reform advocate Mark Bitz and local leader Paul Bertan. Former congressional candidate David Gay had dropped out of the race earlier and endorsed Buerkle.[67] [68]
In February, 2009, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner and Public Opinion Strategies National Public Radio classified the NY-25th as one of 60 "Most Competitive" Democratically held districts.[69] Maffei was targeted by the NRCC for his vote in favor of the Recovery and Reinvestment Act and the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act.[70] Cook listed the race as "Likely Democratic"[71] and CQ as "Democrat Favored".[72]
Though Maffei was favored, Buerkle defeated him on Election Day.[7]
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Dan Maffei (D) | Ann Marie Buerkle (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena[73] | October 10–12, 2010 | align=center | 51% | 39% | 10% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates | October 4–5, 2010 | 39% | align=center | 40% | - | |
| American Action Forum[74] | July 28-Aug. 1, 2010 | align=center | 44% | 41% | 15% | |
| McLaughlin & Associates[75] | July 26–27, 2010 | align=center | 46% | 37% | - | |
| Kiley & Co.[76] | June 27–30, 2010 | align=center | 54% | 35% | - |
See also: New York's 26th congressional district. Republican, Conservative and Independence Party incumbent Chris Lee ran for reelection, challenged by Democratic nominee Philip A. Fedele. Lee won the general election on November 2, 2010, only to resign three months later after it became known that he had sent a suggestive photo to a woman other than his wife.[77]
See also: New York's 27th congressional district. Democratic and Working Families incumbent Brian Higgins ran for reelection, challenged by Republican, Conservative and Taxpayers Party nominee Leonard Roberto, an Akron native and a leader in the local branch of the Tea Party movement. Roberto declared his candidacy against Higgins on April 13, 2010.[78] The district included Chautauqua County and a large portion of Erie County, including a portion of the city of Buffalo.
Higgins won reelection on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 28th congressional district. Democratic, Working Families and Independence Party incumbent Louise Slaughter ran for reelection, challenged by Republican and Conservative Party nominee Jill A. Rowland.
Two candidates were put forth by competing factions of the Tea Party movement. Rowland, a dentist, was originally mentioned as a candidate for Higgins's seat, but was persuaded by a faction of the party led by Rus Thompson to run against Slaughter instead.[79] The faction led by James Ostrowski supported Michael Giuliano, a 29-year-old legal publication editor and attorney allied with Ron Paul, but Giuliano dropped out of the race in July 2010.[80]
Slaughter won against Eddie Egriu in the Democratic primary, and she is widely predicted to keep her seat without any serious competition. Fred Smerlas, a former Buffalo Bills defensive tackle who currently resides in Massachusetts, had expressed an interest in returning to Western New York to challenge her,[81] but later stated that he would not do so this election cycle.[82]
Slaughter won the general election on November 2, 2010.
See also: New York's 29th congressional district.
See main article: New York's 29th congressional district election, 2010.
District 29 was an open seat. The candidates on the ballot were Democratic and Working Families nominee Matthew Zeller and Republican, Conservative and Independence Party nominee Tom Reed. "Tea Party" candidate Janice Volk ran as a write-in candidate. Reed defeated Zeller in both the special election to fill the open seat and the general election for the term beginning on January 3, 2011.
On March 3, 2010, incumbent Democrat Eric Massa announced that he would retire following reports that he had suffered a recurrence of cancer and allegations of sexual harassment. Massa later announced his resignation effective March 8.[83]
Reed, the outgoing mayor of Corning, announced his candidacy in 2009 and is the Republican nominee. Monroe County executive Maggie Brooks, state senator Catharine Young and Kuhl himself publicly acknowledged they were considering running, but all three backed Reed.[84] [85]
The Democrats selected Zeller as their candidate. Zeller, who was largely unknown until his selection, did not live in the state of New York, but claimed to be a "native" of several towns ranging from Rochester to the Southern Tier.[86]
Shortly after Massa's departure, Rothenberg and CQ shifted the race to a toss-up and Cook moved it into the "Lean Republican" category. National Review, on the other hand, considered the race to be one of the easiest of the competitive races for a Republican takeover, on the order of "defeating the St. Louis Rams" (the worst team in the NFL in 2009).[87]
The 2010 election was the last election for the (numerically) 29th district. In December 2010, the United States Census Bureau announced that New York would lose two congressional seats based on the results of the 2010 United States census.[88] It could possibly be dissolved, or renumbered with another county from the east (Tioga County) attached to it while another district (almost certain to be upstate, with candidates being the current 20th, 23rd, 24th or one of the Buffalo districts) is broken up.[89] [90]
| Poll Source | Dates Administered | Matt Zeller (D) | Tom Reed (R) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena[91] | September 14–16, 2010 | 30% | align=center | 44% | 26% | |
| We Ask America[92] | April 20, 2010 | 24.01% | align=center | 41.38% | 34.62% |
*A district that has a partisan voting index of a party that is represented by the opposite party, and applies to an EVEN score