2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky explained

Election Name:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
Country:Kentucky
Type:legislative
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky
Next Year:2014
Seats For Election:All 6 Kentucky seats to the United States House of Representatives
Election Date:November 6, 2012
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Last Election1:4
Seats1:5
Seat Change1: 1
Popular Vote1:1,027,582
Percentage1:58.87%
Swing1: 3.48%
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Last Election2:2
Seats2:1
Seat Change2: 1
Popular Vote2:684,744
Percentage2:39.23%
Swing2: 1.84%

The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the six U.S. representatives from the state of Kentucky, one from each of the state's six congressional districts. The elections will coincide with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election. Primary elections were held on May 22, 2012.[1]

Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky, 2012
PartyVotesPercentageSeats+/–
Republican1,027,58258.87%5+1
Democratic684,74439.23%1-1
Libertarian4,9140.28%0
Others28,1371.61%0
Totals1,745,377100.00%6

Redistricting

Redistricting legislation was passed by both houses of the Kentucky General Assembly and signed into law by Governor Steve Beshear on February 10, 2012.[2]

District 1

Election Name:2012 Kentucky's 1st congressional district election
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 1
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 1
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:Ed Whitfield, 113th Congress, Official Photo.jpg
Nominee1:Ed Whitfield
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:199,956
Percentage1:69.6%
Nominee2:Charles Hatchett
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:87,199
Percentage2:30.4%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Ed Whitfield
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ed Whitfield
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Kentucky's 1st congressional district. Republican Ed Whitfield, who had represented the 1st district since 1995, ran for re-election.[3] In redistricting, the 1st district was made slightly more competitive, but continues to strongly favor Republicans.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Primary results

General election

Results

District 2

Election Name:2012 Kentucky's 2nd congressional district election
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 2
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 2
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:Brett Guthrie, Official Photo (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Brett Guthrie
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:181,508
Percentage1:64.3%
Nominee2:David Williams
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:89,541
Percentage2:31.7%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Brett Guthrie
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Brett Guthrie
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Kentucky's 2nd congressional district. Republican Brett Guthrie, who had represented the 2nd district since 2009, ran for re-election. In redistricting, the 2nd district was made slightly more favourable to Republicans.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Declined

Libertarian primary

Craig Astor ran as a Libertarian:[6]

General election

Results

District 3

Election Name:2012 Kentucky's 3rd congressional district election
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 3
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 3
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:John Yarmuth 113th Congress.jpg
Nominee1:John Yarmuth
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:206,385
Percentage1:64.0%
Nominee2:Brooks Wicker
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:111,452
Percentage2:34.5%
Map Size:150px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:John Yarmuth
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:John Yarmuth
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Kentucky's 3rd congressional district. Democrat John Yarmuth, who had represented the 3rd district since 2007, ran for re-election.[7] The 3rd district was made more favorable to Democrats in redistricting.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Primary results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

General election

Results

District 4

Election Name:2012 Kentucky's 4th congressional district elections
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 4
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 4
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:Thomas Massie, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Thomas Massie
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Nominee2:Bill Adkins
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
1Blank:General election popular vote
2Blank:Special election popular vote
1Data1:186,036
62.1%
2Data1:174,092
59.9%
1Data2:104,734
35.0%
2Data2:106,598
36.7%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Geoff Davis
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Thomas Massie
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Kentucky's 4th congressional district. Republican Geoff Davis, who had represented 4th district from 2005 to 2012, resigned due to family health issues. In redistricting, the 4th district was made more favorable to Republicans.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Primary results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Primary results

Special election

Results

General election

Results

District 5

Election Name:2012 Kentucky's 5th congressional district election
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 5
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 5
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:Hal Rogers, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Hal Rogers
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:195,408
Percentage1:77.9%
Nominee2:Kenneth Stepp
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:55,447
Percentage2:22.1%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Hal Rogers
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Hal Rogers
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Kentucky's 5th congressional district. Republican Hal Rogers, who had represented the 5th district since 1981, ran for re-election.[10] The 5th district was made slightly more competitive in redistricting.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Primary results

General election

Results

District 6

Election Name:2012 Kentucky's 6th congressional district election
Country:Kentucky
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 6
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Kentucky#District 6
Next Year:2014
Image1:File:Andy Barr, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Andy Barr
Party1:Republican Party (US)
Popular Vote1:153,222
Percentage1:50.6%
Nominee2:Ben Chandler
Party2:Democratic Party (US)
Popular Vote2:141,438
Percentage2:46.7%
Map Size:300px
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Ben Chandler
Before Party:Democratic Party (US)
After Election:Andy Barr
After Party:Republican Party (US)

See also: Kentucky's 6th congressional district. Democrat Ben Chandler, who had represented the 6th district since 2004, ran for re-election.[10] In redistricting, the 6th district was modified with the effect that, had the 2008 presidential election been held under the new boundaries, Democratic nominee Barack Obama would have received a share of the vote 1.5 percentage points greater than that which he achieved under the former boundaries.[25]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Primary results

General election

Randolph S. Vance ran as a write-in candidate.[28]

Polling

Poll
source
Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ben
Chandler (D)
Andy
Barr (R)
Randolph
Vance (I)
Undecided
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[29] September 30–October 1, 2012400± % align=center49%46%5%
Mellman (D-Chandler)[30] September 10–13, 2012400± 4.9% align=center51%37%3%9%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[31] June 24–26, 2012400± 4.9% align=center47%42%13%
Mellman (D-Chandler)[32] March 26–28, 2012400± 4.9% align=center54%30%16%
Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)[33] February 20–21, 2012400± 4.9% align=center49%42%9%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[34] November 5, 2012
align=left Rothenberg[35] November 2, 2012
align=left Roll Call[36] November 4, 2012
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[37] November 5, 2012
align=left NY Times[38] November 4, 2012
RCP[39] November 4, 2012
align=left The Hill[40] November 4, 2012

Results

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2012 Kentucky Election Calendar. August 16, 2011. https://web.archive.org/web/20101215221409/http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyres/68C89E2A-88EA-4552-9C6B-8E456866CCEF/244879/2012ELECTIONLAWCALENDAR_Presidential_.pdf. December 15, 2010. dead.
  2. Web site: Beshear approves new congressional map that splits Jessamine. February 10, 2012. February 19, 2012. Lexington Herald-Leader. Jack. Brammer.
  3. Web site: U.S. Rep. Whitfield to run again in 2012, responds to questions about donations and residency. December 29, 2011. December 29, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  4. Web site: It's not too soon for 2014 and beyond for these potential Democratic candidates. August 22, 2011. August 23, 2011. Pure Politics. Ryan. Alessi.
  5. http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2012/by_county/KY_US_House_0522.html?SITE=CSPANELN&SECTION=POLITICS AP primary results
  6. https://archive.today/20121205055621/http://apps.sos.ky.gov/elections/candidatefilings/statewide/default.aspx?id=4 Candidate fillings
  7. Web site: U.S. Rep. John Yarmuth to run for fourth term in 2012. September 5, 2011. September 6, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  8. News: Three U.S. House races in Kentucky will be reruns this fall . James R. . Carroll . . May 22, 2012 . May 25, 2012.
  9. Web site: Republican Brooks Wicker to run for Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District. October 6, 2011. October 23, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  10. Web site: 7 Republicans file to run for Davis' 4th District seat. February 17, 2012. February 19, 2012. The Courier-Journal.
  11. Web site: 4th District Update: Moore announces; Sen. Stine, Rep. Koeing and Lance Lucas considering it. December 20, 2011. December 22, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  12. Web site: Hunter Bates Won't Run to Succeed Geoff Davis in Kentucky. December 19, 2011. December 19, 2011. Roll Call. Shira. Toeplitz.
  13. Web site: Potential GOP 4th District candidates praise Geoff Davis as they mull running in '12. December 15, 2011. December 16, 2011. Pure Politics. Ryan. Alessi.
  14. Web site: 4th District Update: Ben Dusing out; Webb-Edgington hires Davis' spokesman as manager. January 2, 2012. January 3, 2012. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  15. Web site: Candidates stampede to fill open 4th District congressional seat. December 16, 2011. December 19, 2011. The Courier-Journal. Joseph. Gerth.
  16. Web site: N.Ky. Update: Koenig runs for re-election not Congress; Shawn Baker's 1st fundraiser for Senate. December 29, 2011. December 31, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  17. Web site: Sell will not run for Congress in 2012. December 17, 2011. December 19, 2011. The Cincinnati Enquirer. Amanda. Van Benschoten.
  18. Web site: Boone Judge-Exec Gary Moore tells fellow official he is in the 4th Congressional race. December 20, 2011. December 21, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Don. Weber.
  19. Web site: Former McConnell Staffer Considers Kentucky House Run. December 15, 2011. December 16, 2011. Roll Call. Shira. Toeplitz.
  20. News: Lewis Countian Thomas Massie Wins GOP Nomination in Ky. 4th District . https://archive.today/20130209220745/http://www.wsaz.com/news/headlines/Lewis_Countian_Thomas_Massie_Wins_GOP_Nomination_for_4th_District_Ky_House__152834485.html . dead . February 9, 2013 . . AP . May 22, 2012 . May 25, 2012 .
  21. Web site: NKY Dems: We'll field a candidate for Congress. December 17, 2011. December 19, 2011. The Cincinnati Enquirer. Amanda. Van Benschoten.
  22. Web site: 4th District Update: GOP's Ben Dusing preparing to run; Florence Mayor not running. December 22, 2011. December 22, 2011. Pure Politics. cn|2. Don. Weber.
  23. Web site: Manchester Attorney Files to Challenge Congressman Hal Rogers. February 1, 2012. February 19, 2012. WFPL.
  24. News: Kentucky's primary election has low turnout . Steve . Adams . . May 22, 2012 . May 25, 2012 . March 3, 2016 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160303231822/http://www.wowktv.com/story/18599694/kentuckys-primary-election-has-low-turnout . dead .
  25. Web site: Analysis: New congressional map only slightly moves the political needle in the 6 districts. February 12, 2012. February 19, 2012. Pure Politics. cn|2. Ryan. Alessi.
  26. Web site: Andy Barr: Walking a fine line for Congress - State Government and Politics - Kentucky.com. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20100417190847/http://www.kentucky.com/2010/04/11/1219352/andy-barr-walking-a-fine-line.html. 2010-04-17.
  27. Web site: Barr launching a rematch with Chandler. June 9, 2011. June 10, 2011. Politico. James. Hohmann.
  28. Web site: 4 Kentucky congressmen are unopposed in primary. February 7, 2012. February 20, 2012. The Courier-Journal. James R.. Carroll.
  29. https://web.archive.org/web/20161014034731/https://www.scribd.com/doc/108994076/KY-06-Public-Opinion-Strategies-for-Andy-Barr-NRCC-Oct-2012 Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)
  30. http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ChandlerPollMemoSeptember2012_0.pdf Mellman (D-Chandler)
  31. https://web.archive.org/web/20130702074257/http://atr.rollcall.com/kentucky-barr-poll-shows-him-behind-by-5-points/ Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)
  32. https://www.scribd.com/doc/91990158/KY-06-Mellman-Group-for-Ben-Chandler-March-2012 Mellman (D-Chandler)
  33. https://web.archive.org/web/20120503200458/http://images.politico.com/global/2012/04/andy_barr_ky_6_memo_release_april_2012.html Public Opinion Strategies (R-Barr)
  34. Web site: The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races . Cookpolitical.com . November 5, 2012 . November 6, 2012.
  35. Web site: House Ratings . Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com . November 2, 2012 . November 4, 2012.
  36. http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html
  37. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball
  38. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings
  39. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html
  40. Web site: House Ratings . The Hill . November 4, 2012. November 3, 2012 .