2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona explained

See also: 2014 Arizona elections.

Election Name:2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Country:Arizona
Type:legislative
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona
Next Year:2016
Seats For Election:All 9 Arizona seats to the United States House of Representatives
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Last Election1:4
Seats1:5
Seat Change1: 1
Popular Vote1:817,345
Percentage1:55.9%
Swing1: 3.6%
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Last Election2:5
Seats2:4
Seat Change2: 1
Popular Vote2:557,960
Percentage2:39.4%
Swing2: 4.2%
Map Size:230px

The 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona were held on Tuesday, November 4, 2014, to elect the nine U.S. representatives from the state of Arizona, one from each of the state's nine congressional districts, with Democratic and Republican primaries taking place on August 26. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including governor of Arizona.

Overview

The table below shows the total number and percentage of votes, as well as the number of seats gained and lost by each political party in the election for the United States House of Representatives in Arizona. In addition, the voter turnout and the number of votes not valid are listed below.[1]

Statewide

PartyCandidatesVotesSeats
%+/–%
Republican9817,16855.685 155.56
Democratic8577,94339.384 144.44
Americans Elect244,9243.0600.0
Libertarian323,7671.6200.0
Write-in73,8010.2600.0
Total281,467,603100.09100.0

By district

Results of the 2014 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona by district:[2]

scope=col rowspan=3Districtscope=col colspan=2Republicanscope=col colspan=2Democraticscope=col colspan=2 rowspan=2Othersscope=col colspan=2 rowspan=2Totalscope=col rowspan=3Result
scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"!scope=col colspan=2 style="background:"
scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"% !scope=col data-sort-type="number"Votes !scope=col data-sort-type="number"%
87,723 47.39% 97,391 52.61% 0 0.00% 185,114 100.0% Democratic hold
District 2 109,704 50.01% 109,543 49.94% 104 0.05% 219,351 100.0% Republican gain
46,185 44.23% 58,192 55.72% 51 0.05% 104,428 100.0% Democratic hold
122,560 69.96% 45,179 25.79% 7,440 4.25% 175,179 100.0% Republican hold
124,867 69.58% 54,596 30.42% 0 0.00% 179,463 100.0% Republican hold
129,578 64.86% 70,198 35.14% 0 0.00% 199,776 100.0% Republican hold
129 0.18% 54,235 74.85% 18,090 24.97% 72,454 100.0% Democratic hold
128,710 75.81% 0 0.00% 41,066 24.19% 169,776 100.0% Republican hold
67,841 41.86% 88,609 54.68% 5,612 3.46% 162,062 100.0% Democratic hold
Total 817,168 55.68% 577,943 39.38% 72,492 4.94% 1,467,603 100.0%

District 1

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 1st congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 1
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 1
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Ann Kirkpatrick, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ann Kirkpatrick
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:97,391
Percentage1:52.6%
Nominee2:Andy Tobin
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:87,723
Percentage2:47.4%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Ann Kirkpatrick
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Ann Kirkpatrick
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 1st congressional district. Incumbent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick, who won election to the House of Representatives in 2012, ran for re-election. She had previously served in this district from 2007 to 2009.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Declined

Results

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ann
Kirkpatrick (D)
Andy
Tobin (R)
Undecided
New York Times/CBS News Battleground Tracker[8] October 16–23, 2014357± 12.0%47%47%7%
North Star (R-Tobin)[9] September 16–18, 2014400± 4.9%42% align=center48%10%
Tarrance Group (R-Tobin)[10] September 2–4, 2014405± 4.9%43% align=center51%6%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[11] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg[12] October 24, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] October 30, 2014
RCPNovember 2, 2014
align=left Daily Kos Elections[14] November 4, 2014

Results

District 2

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 2nd congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 2
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 2
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Martha McSally, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Martha McSally
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:109,704
Percentage1:50.0%
Nominee2:Ron Barber
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:109,543
Percentage2:49.9%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Ron Barber
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Martha McSally
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 2nd congressional district. Democrat Ron Barber, who was elected to a full term in the House of Representatives in 2012, ran for re-election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

General election

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ron
Barber (D)
Martha
McSally (R)
Undecided
PMI/RRH[16] October 21–23, 2014554± 4.0% align=center48%46%5%
New York Times/CBS News Battleground TrackerOctober 16–23, 2014621± 6.0% align=center45%44%10%
Normington Petts (D-Barber)[17] June 8–10, 2014400± 4.9% align=center45%37%18%
On Message Inc. (R-McSally)[18] April 14–16, 2014400± 4.9%42% align=center45%9%
On Message Inc. (R-McSally)[19] June 17–18, 2013400± 4.9% align=center46%45%9%

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
align=left RothenbergOctober 24, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 30, 2014
RCPNovember 2, 2014
align=left Daily Kos ElectionsNovember 4, 2014

Results

As the election margin was less than 1% in favor of McSally, a recount began on December 3, 2014. McSally won the recount by 161 votes.[20] This was the closest House race in 2014.

District 3

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 3rd congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 3
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 3
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Raul Grijalva, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Raúl Grijalva
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:58,192
Percentage1:55.7%
Nominee2:Gabriela Saucedo Mercer
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:46,185
Percentage2:44.2%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Raúl Grijalva
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Raúl Grijalva
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 3rd congressional district. Democrat Raúl Grijalva, who had represented the district since 2002, ran for re-election.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

General election

Results

District 4

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 4th congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 4
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 4
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Paul Gosar, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Paul Gosar
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:122,560
Percentage1:70.0%
Nominee2:Mikel Weisser
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:45,179
Percentage2:25.8%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Paul Gosar
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Paul Gosar
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 4th congressional district. Republican Paul Gosar, who had represented the district since 2010, ran for re-election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Results

District 5

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 5th congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 5
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 5
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Matt Salmon, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Matt Salmon
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:124,867
Percentage1:69.6%
Nominee2:James Woods
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:54,596
Percentage2:30.4%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Matt Salmon
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Matt Salmon
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 5th congressional district. Republican Matt Salmon, who had represented the district since 2012, ran for re-election. He had previously served from 1995 to 2001.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Campaign

Woods was looking to make history as the first openly atheist candidate to be elected to the U.S. Congress (former California Congressman Pete Stark, who served from 1973 to 2013, is an atheist but did not reveal this until 2007; former Massachusetts Congressman Barney Frank revealed that he was an atheist after he left office[21]).

Results

District 6

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 6th congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 6
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 6
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:David Schweikert, official portrait, 112th Congress 2 (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:David Schweikert
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:129,578
Percentage1:64.9%
Nominee2:W. John Williamson
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:70,198
Percentage2:35.1%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:David Schweikert
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:David Schweikert
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 6th congressional district. Republican David Schweikert, who had represented the district since 2010, ran for re-election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Results

District 7

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 7th congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 7
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 7
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Ruben Gallego, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Ruben Gallego
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:54,235
Percentage1:74.9%
Nominee2:Joe Cobb
Party2:Libertarian Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:10,715
Percentage2:14.8%
Image3:File:3x4.svg
Nominee3:Rebecca DeWitt
Party3:Americans Elect
Popular Vote3:3,858
Percentage3:5.3%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Ed Pastor
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Ruben Gallego
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 7th congressional district. The 7th district is heavily Hispanic. It is located primarily in Phoenix, and includes portions of Glendale and the town of Guadalupe. The incumbent was Democrat Ed Pastor, who had represented the district since 2013, and previously represented the 4th district from 2003 to 2013 and the 2nd district from 1991 to 2013. He was re-elected with 82% of the vote in 2012 and the district has a PVI of D+16. Pastor did not run for re-election.[22]

Democratic primary

Pastor's retirement presented a "once- or twice-in-a-lifetime opportunity" for an open safe Democratic seat in Arizona and was predicted to set off a "free-for-all" in the primary that could "eclipse" the 10-candidate primary for retiring Congressman John Shadegg's seat in 2010. Because of this and Arizona's "resign-to-run" law, political consultant Mario Diaz predicted a "domino effect, from federal (offices) all the way down to city (councils)."[23]

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Disqualified
Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Ruben
Gallego
Mary Rose
Wilcox
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling[38] July 22–24, 2014500± 4.4% align=center41%31%27%
Lake Research (D-Gallego)[39] July 20–22, 2014400± 4.9% align=center32%24%6% align=center38%
Lake Research (D-Gallego)[40] May 20–22, 2014401± 4.9% align=center38%32%29%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Withdrawn

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn

Results

Americans Elect primary

Candidates

Nominee
Withdrawn

Results

General election

Results

District 8

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 8th congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 8
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 8
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Trent Franks, official portrait, 114th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Trent Franks
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:128,710
Percentage1:75.8%
Nominee2:Stephen Dolgos
Party2:Americans Elect
Popular Vote2:41,066
Percentage2:24.2%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Trent Franks
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Trent Franks
After Party:Republican Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 8th congressional district. Republican Trent Franks, who had represented the district since 2002, ran for re-election.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary

Results

Democratic primary

No Democrat filed to run.[4]

Americans Elect primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Results

District 9

Election Name:2014 Arizona's 9th congressional district election
Country:Arizona
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 9
Previous Year:2012
Next Election:2016 United States House of Representatives elections in Arizona#District 9
Next Year:2016
Image1:File:Rep Kyrsten Sinema, official portrait (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Kyrsten Sinema
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:88,609
Percentage1:54.7%
Nominee2:Wendy Rogers
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:67,841
Percentage2:41.9%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:Kyrsten Sinema
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Kyrsten Sinema
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

See also: Arizona's 9th congressional district. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema won election to the House of Representatives in 2012, when the district was created.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee
Eliminated in primary
Withdrawn
Declined

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political ReportNovember 3, 2014
align=left RothenbergOctober 24, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal BallOctober 30, 2014
RCPNovember 2, 2014
align=left Daily Kos ElectionsNovember 4, 2014

Results

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Election Statistics: 1920 to Present | US House of Representatives: History, Art & Archives.
  2. Web site: Haas. Karen L.. Statistics of the Congressional Election of November 4, 2014. Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives. October 28, 2019. March 9, 2015.
  3. Web site: Arizona GOP candidate says Democrats are behind most mass shootings. 18 May 2014. Yahoo News. 17 December 2014.
  4. Web site: 2014 Primary Election Full Listing. May 29, 2014. May 30, 2014. Arizona Secretary of State. https://web.archive.org/web/20140531105139/http://www.azsos.gov/election/2014/primary/FullListing.htm. May 31, 2014. dead. mdy-all.
  5. News: Who Will Take On Ann Kirkpatrick in Arizona? The Field . Abby . Livingston . . May 14, 2013 . May 15, 2013 . June 8, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130608030158/http://atr.rollcall.com/who-will-take-on-ann-kirkpatrick-in-arizona-the-field/ . dead .
  6. Web site: Paul Babeu Claims He's Not Running for Congress in 2014. Phoenix New Times. July 10, 2013. December 9, 2014.
  7. https://web.archive.org/web/20140905020344/http://remingtonresearchgroup.com/pdf/140820_AZ-01_Brushfire_Survey.pdf Remington
  8. https://today.yougov.com/news/2014/10/30/house-races-battleground-tracker/ New York Times/CBS News Battleground Tracker
  9. http://www.azcentral.com/story/azdc/2014/10/03/poll-tobin-leads-kirkpatrick-republican/16614097/ North Star (R-Tobin)
  10. https://www.scribd.com/doc/239177612/AZ-01-Tarrance-Group-for-Andy-Tobin-NRCC-Sept-2014 Tarrance Group (R-Tobin)
  11. Web site: 2014 House Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . House: Race Ratings . Cook Political Report . November 3, 2014.
  12. Web site: 2014 House Ratings (October 24, 2014) . House Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 24, 2014.
  13. Web site: 2014 House . Sabato's Crystal Ball . April 10, 2014 . April 11, 2014.
  14. Web site: Daily Kos Elections House race ratings: Initial ratings for 2014 . Daily Kos Elections . November 4, 2014.
  15. News: Martha McSally Files Paperwork for Rematch (Updated) #AZ02 . Emily . Cahn . . July 3, 2013 . July 4, 2013 . July 7, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130707021741/http://atr.rollcall.com/martha-mcsally-files-paperwork-for-rematch-az02/ . dead .
  16. Web site: PMI/RRH . October 28, 2014 . October 30, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141030003102/http://www.redracinghorses.com/diary/4040/rrh-poll-by-shamlet . dead .
  17. https://www.scribd.com/doc/229533338/AZ-02-Normington-Petts-for-House-Majority-PAC-June-2014 Normington Petts (D-Barber)
  18. Web site: On Message Inc. (R-McSally) . July 24, 2014 . October 19, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141019222312/http://atr.rollcall.com/gop-internalpoll-mcsally-barber-are-deadlocked/ . dead .
  19. Web site: On Message Inc. (R-McSally) . July 24, 2014 . April 29, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140429212918/http://atr.rollcall.com/gop-poll-mcsally-and-barber-tied-in/ . dead .
  20. http://tucson.com/news/local/recount-starts-today-in-mcsally-vs-barber-race/article_c8a326c4-fd49-5469-8eee-c67ece92e3e4.html Recount starts today in McSally vs. Barber race
  21. Web site: Meet James Woods, who could be the first open atheist elected to Congress. Faitheist. 17 December 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20141222171623/http://chrisstedman.religionnews.com/2014/04/27/meet-james-woods-first-open-atheist-elected-congress/. 22 December 2014. dead.
  22. News: Congressman Ed Pastor won't run for re-election . centredaily . February 27, 2014 . February 27, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140227235053/http://www.centredaily.com/2014/02/27/4059209/congressman-ed-pastor-wont-run.html . February 27, 2014 . dead .
  23. News: Surprise announcement sets off a scramble by aspiring replacements . AZ Central . February 27, 2014 . March 3, 2014 .
  24. News: Ed Pastor to Retire in 2014 (Updated) (Video) . . February 27, 2014 . February 27, 2014 . March 4, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140304143452/http://atr.rollcall.com/ed-pastor-to-retire-in-2014/ . dead .
  25. News: Mary Rose Wilcox to resign from county board, run for Congress. AZCentral . February 27, 2014 . February 27, 2014.
  26. News: Steve Gallardo exits congressional race for 7th District. AZCentral . May 20, 2014 . May 21, 2014.
  27. News: GOP Candidate Changes Name to Cesar Chavez . PoliticalWire . June 2, 2014 . June 2, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140602212712/http://politicalwire.com/archives/2014/06/02/gop_candidate_changes_name_to_cesar_chavez.html . June 2, 2014 . dead .
  28. News: Despite a passionate defense, Cesar Chavez is tossed from 7th District ballot . Arizona Capitol Times . June 17, 2014 . June 17, 2014.
  29. News: Former White House staffer Ronnie Cho declines an Arizona congressional run. Washington Examiner . April 1, 2014 . April 2, 2014 .
  30. News: Former Phoenix Mayor Gordon rules out run for Congress . AZ Central . March 3, 2014 . March 4, 2014 .
  31. News: .@MRNowakowski just confirmed ... . Twitter . Amy B. Wang . March 24, 2014 . March 25, 2014 .
  32. News: Councilwoman Laura Pastor rules out Congress run . AZ Central . March 13, 2014 . March 20, 2014 .
  33. News: Rep. Pastor's retirement sets off 'political haboob' . kpho.com . February 28, 2014 . March 3, 2014 .
  34. News: Email shows Sinema huddling with top campaign advisers on 'options' . AZ Central . March 1, 2014 . March 3, 2014 .
  35. News: Sinema Will Run for Re-Election in Current District . Roll Call . March 6, 2014 . March 6, 2014 . March 6, 2014 . https://web.archive.org/web/20140306235929/http://atr.rollcall.com/sinema-will-run-for-re-election-in-current-district/ . dead .
  36. News: I love being your mayor and... . Twitter . February 28, 2014 . March 4, 2014 .
  37. News: Daniel Valenzuela not seeking Ed Pastor's U.S. House seat . Phoenix Business Journal . March 27, 2014 . March 30, 2014 .
  38. http://act.boldprogressives.org/survey/post_gallego_polling/ Public Policy Polling
  39. https://www.scribd.com/doc/235292651/AZ-07-Lake-Research-for-Ruben-Gallego-July-2014 Lake Research (D-Gallego)
  40. https://web.archive.org/web/20140529084556/http://gallegoforarizona.com/gallego-leads-polls/ Lake Research (D-Gallego)
  41. News: Arizona: GOP Challenger to Sinema Kicks Off Campaign on Sunday . Abby . Livingston . . March 14, 2013 . April 10, 2013 . March 18, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130318011323/http://atr.rollcall.com/arizona-gop-challenger-to-sinema-kicks-off-campaign-on-sunday/ . dead .
  42. News: Arizona: Ex-ASU Quarterback Files to Challenge Sinema . Abby . Livingston . . April 8, 2013 . April 10, 2013 . April 13, 2013 . https://web.archive.org/web/20130413045108/http://atr.rollcall.com/ex-asu-quarterback-files-challenge-sinema/ . dead .
  43. News: Vernon Parker makes Corp Comm candidacy official . Evan Wyloge. Arizona Capitol Times . February 4, 2014 .
  44. News: Farm Team: Arizona Raises Drama, Candidates . Abby . Livingston . . February 27, 2013 .
  45. http://www.azcentral.com/insiders/azdc/2014/02/10/contradictory-polls-in-the-gop-race-for-district-9/ Coleman Dahm & Associates