2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana explained

Election Name:	2012 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
Country:	Montana
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2010 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
Previous Year:	2010
Next Election:	2014 United States House of Representatives election in Montana
Next Year:	2014
Election Date:	November 6, 2012
Image1:	File:Steve Daines, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:	Steve Daines
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:	255,468
Percentage1:	53.3%
Nominee2:	Kim Gillan
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	204,939
Percentage2:	42.7%
U.S. Representative
Before Election:	Denny Rehberg
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Steve Daines
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2012 congressional election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, to determine who would represent the state of Montana in the United States House of Representatives. At the time, Montana had one seat in the House. Incumbent Denny Rehberg did not run for reelection, choosing instead to run for the seat in the U.S. Senate.^[1] A primary election was held on June 5, 2012.^[2] Republican businessman Steve Daines won the open seat.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Steve Daines, businessman and nominee for lieutenant governor in 2008^[3]

Eliminated in primary

• Eric Brosten, author and engineer^[4]
• Vincent Melkus, student at Colorado Mesa University and former Marine^[5]

Withdrawn

• John Abarr, white supremacist and Ku Klux Klan organizer.^{[6] [7]}

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Kim Gillan, state senator from Billings^[9]

Eliminated in primary

• Sam Rankin, real estate salesman and candidate for this seat in 2010^[10]
• Diane Smith, businesswoman^[11]
• Dave Strohmaier, Missoula city council member^[12]
• Rob Stutz, attorney^[13]
• Jason Ward, farmer and construction manager for the Crow Nation^[14]
• Franke Wilmer, state representative from Bozeman^[15]

Declined

• Melinda Gopher, writer and candidate for this seat in 2010^[16]
• Brian Schweitzer, Governor of Montana^{[17] [18]}

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

• David Kaiser^[20]

General election

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Steve Daines (R)	Kim Gillan (D)	David Kaiser (L)	Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D)^[21]	November 2–3, 2012	737	± 3.6%	align=center	48%	44%	3%	4%
Mason-Dixon^[22]	October 29–31, 2012	625	± 4.0%	align=center	51%	40%	1%	8%
Pharos Research Group^[23]	October 26–28, 2012	799	± 4.9%	align=center	52%	45%	–	4%
Pharos Research Group^[24]	October 19–21, 2012	400	± 4.9%	align=center	47%	41%	–	12%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[25]	October 8–10, 2012	737	± 3.6%	align=center	43%	34%	10%	12%
MSU-Billings^[26]	September 27–30, 2012	477	± 4.6%	align=center	36%	23%	3%	align=center	38%
Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)^[27]	September 23–26, 2012	600	± 4.0%	align=center	36%	34%	5%	25%
Mason-Dixon^[28]	September 17–19, 2012	625	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	38%	2%	14%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[29]	September 10–11, 2012	656	± 3.8%	align=center	40%	37%	9%	15%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[30]	April 26 - 29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	align=center	33%	27%	—	align=center	40%
Public Policy Polling (D)^[31]	June 16 - 19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	align=center	35%	27%	—	align=center	38%

Poll source	Date(s) administered			Steve Daines (R)	Franke Wilmer (D)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	April 26 - 29, 2012	934	± 3.2%	align=center	36%	25%	—	align=center	39%
Public Policy Polling^[32]	June 16 - 19, 2011	819	± 3.4%	align=center	35%	25%	—	align=center	40%

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[33]		November 5, 2012
align=left	Rothenberg^[34]		November 2, 2012
align=left	Roll Call^[35]		November 4, 2012
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[36]		November 5, 2012
align=left	NY Times^[37]		November 4, 2012
RCP^[38]		November 4, 2012
align=left	The Hill^[39]		November 4, 2012

Results

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Missoula (Largest city: Missoula)
• Glacier (largest city: Cut Bank)
• Roosevelt (largest city: Wolf Point)
• Hill (largest city: Havre)
• Blaine (largest city: Chinooko)

External links

• Elections at the Montana Secretary of State
• United States House of Representatives elections in Montana, 2012 at Ballotpedia
• Montana U.S. House at OurCampaigns.com
• Campaign contributions for U.S. Congressional races in Montana at OpenSecrets
• Outside spending at the Sunlight Foundation

Campaign websites

• Steve Daines campaign website
• Kim Gillan campaign website
• David Kaiser campaign website

Notes and References

1. Web site: It's official: Rehberg says he's taking on Tester. February 5, 2011. February 5, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
2. Web site: Montana 2012 Primary and General Election Calendar. August 16, 2011. Secretary of State Linda McCulloch. https://web.archive.org/web/20110810223301/http://sos.mt.gov/elections/Archives/2010s/2012/2012_Election_Calendar.pdf. August 10, 2011. dead.
3. Web site: Bozeman's Steve Daines comments on switching from Senate to House race. February 3, 2011. June 1, 2011. KXLF.com. Judy. Slate. https://web.archive.org/web/20110713174908/http://www.kxlf.com/news/bozeman-s-steve-daines-comments-on-switching-from-senate-to-house-race/. July 13, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
4. Web site: Star Wars is top issue for GOP House candidate. February 2, 2012. February 7, 2012. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
5. Web site: Ex-Marine from Hardin files for Montana's U.S. House seat. March 6, 2012. March 11, 2012. Missoulian. Charles S.. Johnson.
6. Web site: Cates . Kristen . More inclusive KKK chapter makes some suspicious . USA TODAY . 25 February 2024.
7. News: Republican Mont. candidate for Congress with KKK ties drops out due to lack of support. October 5, 2011. October 15, 2011. The Washington Post.
8. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0705.pdf Public Policy Polling
9. Web site: Kim Gillan enters Democratic race for US House. June 21, 2011. June 21, 2011. KAJ18.com. Marnee. Banks. https://web.archive.org/web/20120321003032/http://www.kaj18.com/news/kim-gillan-enters-democratic-race-for-us-house/. March 21, 2012. dead.
10. Web site: Billings real estate agent Rankin joins U.S. House race as Demo. March 9, 2012. March 11, 2012. Independent Record.
11. Web site: Whitefish businesswoman becomes 5th Democrat in U.S. House race. November 3, 2011. November 11, 2011. Billings Gazette. Mike. Dennison.
12. Web site: Strohmaier announces run for Congress. June 18, 2011. June 20, 2011. KPAX. Allyson. Weller. https://web.archive.org/web/20110623010336/http://www.kpax.com/news/strohmaier-announces-run-for-congress/. June 23, 2011. dead.
13. Web site: Helena attorney Rob Stutz announces run for US House. August 10, 2011. August 16, 2011. KRTV. Marnee. Banks. https://web.archive.org/web/20110929083822/http://www.krtv.com/news/helena-attorney-rob-stutz-announces-run-for-us-house/. September 29, 2011. dead.
14. Web site: Crow tribal member files as Democrat for U.S. House seat. January 20, 2012. January 25, 2012. Missoulian. Charles S.. Johnson.
15. Web site: Wilmer of Bozeman announces U.S. House bid. February 1, 2011. June 1, 2011. KRTV.com. Marnee. Banks. https://web.archive.org/web/20110713171859/http://www.krtv.com/news/wilmer-of-bozeman-announces-u-s-house-bid/. July 13, 2011. dead. mdy-all.
16. Web site: Gopher not running for Congress; she sets eye on Senate in 2014. March 14, 2012. March 15, 2012. Independent Record.
17. Web site: Could Schweitzer Challenge Baucus in 2014?. June 9, 2011. June 10, 2011. Roll Call. David M.. Drucker.
18. Web site: Schweitzer says his future isn't in Congress. July 28, 2011. August 2, 2011. Billings Gazette. Charles S.. Johnson.
19. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling
20. Web site: Filing deadline: Busy day precedes busy election season. March 13, 2012. March 15, 2012. Independent Record. Mike. Dennison.
21. https://web.archive.org/web/20150905222628/http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_AZMT_1104.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
22. https://web.archive.org/web/20121105100321/http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/daines-stakes-out-solid-lead-over-gillan-in-u-s/article_a7560897-e7c9-5f1b-a85a-2386b2b932e7.html Mason-Dixon
23. https://web.archive.org/web/20121119152013/http://www.pharosresearchgroup.com/Home/Montana.pdf Pharos Research Group
24. https://web.archive.org/web/20150906003712/http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/pharos-research-group-16247 Pharos Research Group
25. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_1010121.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
26. http://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/billingsgazette.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/2/c7/2c7c9c65-1304-5b29-a62c-9717f8c30079/5076638daf20c.pdf.pdf MSU-Billings
27. https://www.scribd.com/doc/109133151/MT-AL-Mellman-Group-for-JET-PAC-DGA-Sept-2012 Mellman (D-Montana JET PAC)
28. http://billingsgazette.com/news/state-and-regional/montana/poll-lead-in-house-race-goes-to-daines/article_d6cd4f8f-4f01-52c6-bdeb-91ef2329b0dd.html Mason-Dixon
29. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_91212.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
30. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MT_050112.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
31. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf Public Policy Polling (D)
32. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_MT_0630House.pdf Public Policy Polling
33. Web site: The Cook Political Report — Charts – 2012 House Competitive Races . Cookpolitical.com . November 5, 2012 . November 6, 2012.
34. Web site: House Ratings . Rothenbergpoliticalreport.com . November 2, 2012 . November 4, 2012.
35. http://www.rollcall.com/politics/race-ratings-chart-2012-house-elections.html
36. http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/category/2012-house/ Crystal Ball
37. http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/ratings/house House Race Ratings
38. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/house/2012_elections_house_map.html
39. Web site: House Ratings . The Hill . November 4, 2012. November 3, 2012 .