Unite to Remain explained

Unite to Remain [1] was a campaign and electoral pact during the 2019 United Kingdom general election. It involved three parties that supported remaining in the European Union: the Liberal Democrats, the Green Party of England and Wales, and, in Wales, Plaid Cymru. Its stated goal was to avoid the spoiler effect and maximise the number of MPs elected who would oppose Brexit.

In 49 constituencies in England and 11 in Wales, the pact led to only one of these parties standing a candidate. Of the 60 constituencies, 43 had Liberal Democrat candidates only, 10 had Green Party candidates only, and 7 had Plaid Cymru candidates only.[2] [3] [4] [5] [6] The seats covered by the pact included some defended by a Unite to Remain party, as well as target seats held by the Conservative or Labour parties.

Nine Unite to Remain candidates were elected (5 Liberal Democrats, 3 Plaid Cymru, 1 Green), which represented one gain and one loss compared to the 2017 general election results.

Details

Though there was no formal pact, the August 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election saw the Greens and Plaid Cymru stand aside for the Liberal Democrat candidate Jane Dodds,[7] who defeated the Conservative candidate by a small margin.[8] This arrangement was mooted as being the basis for a wider-ranging "Remain Alliance".[9]

The Unite to Remain group which brokered the pact was formed by the outgoing MP for South Cambridgeshire, Heidi Allen and former Liberal Democrat Treasurer Peter Dunphy in July 2019.[10] [11] The alliance approached the Labour party at an early stage, but were rebuffed. The Labour peer Jim Knight was one of the directors of Unite to Remain.[12] The group was registered as a "non-party campaigner" with the Electoral Commission in November 2019.[13]

Seats were selected based on a targeted pooling of resources and only with the consent of local parties. All the parties also support electoral reform.[14] Liberal Democrat activists in constituencies where their party stood aside were encouraged to either campaign for the Unite to Remain candidate there, or to campaign in a nearby seat.[15]

On 13 November 2019, Unite to Remain and the Renew Party announced that Renew would not contest any of the 60 Unite to Remain target seats.[16]

List of constituencies

Incumbents marked in italics did not stand for re-election in that constituency.

Darker rows indicate constituencies where the Unite to Remain party won the previous election (the 2017 general election or the 2019 Brecon and Radnorshire by-election). The pact also covers three seats where, during the 2017–2019 Parliament, incumbent MPs defected from other parties to the Liberal Democrats.

Constituency CountryUnite to Remain partyUnite to Remain candidateIncumbent partyIncumbentRefsResult
Wales Plaid CymruHywel WilliamsPlaid CymruHywel WilliamsElected
BathEnglandLiberal DemocratsWera HobhouseLiberal DemocratsWera HobhouseElected
England Liberal DemocratsHumaira AliLabourNeil Coyle[17] Not elected
Wales Liberal DemocratsJane DoddsLiberal DemocratsJane DoddsNot elected
England GreenCaroline LucasGreenCaroline Lucas[18] Elected
England GreenCarla DenyerLabourThangam Debbonaire[19] Not elected
England Liberal DemocratsStephen DorrellSpeakerJohn Bercow[20] Not elected
Bury St EdmundsEnglandGreenHelen GeakeConservativeJo ChurchillNot elected
CaerphillyWalesPlaid CymruLindsay WhittleLabourWayne David[21] Not elected
Cannock ChaseEnglandGreenPaul WoodheadConservativeAmanda MillingNot elected
Cardiff CentralWalesLiberal DemocratsBablin MolikLabourJo StevensNot elected
Carmarthen East and DinefwrWalesPlaid CymruJonathan EdwardsPlaid CymruJonathan EdwardsElected
CheadleEnglandLiberal DemocratsTom MorrisonConservativeMary RobinsonNot elected
ChelmsfordEnglandLiberal DemocratsMarie GoldmanConservativeVicky FordNot elected
Chelsea and FulhamEnglandLiberal DemocratsNicola HorlickConservativeGreg HandsNot elected
CheltenhamEnglandLiberal DemocratsMax WilkinsonConservativeAlex ChalkNot elected
ChippenhamEnglandLiberal DemocratsHelen BelcherConservativeMichelle DonelanNot elected
Dulwich and West NorwoodEnglandGreenJonathan BartleyLabourHelen HayesNot elected
Dwyfor MeirionnyddWalesPlaid CymruLiz Saville RobertsPlaid CymruLiz Saville-Roberts[22] Elected
Esher and WaltonEnglandLiberal DemocratsMonica HardingConservativeDominic RaabNot elected
ExeterEnglandGreenJoe LevyLabourBen Bradshaw[23] Not elected
Finchley and Golders GreenEnglandLiberal DemocratsLuciana BergerConservativeMike FreerNot elected
Forest of DeanEnglandGreenChris McFarlingConservativeMark HarperNot elected
GuildfordEnglandLiberal DemocratsZöe FranklinIndependent
won as Conservative
Anne MiltonNot elected
Harrogate and KnaresboroughEnglandLiberal DemocratsJudith RogersonConservativeAndrew JonesNot elected
Hazel GroveEnglandLiberal DemocratsLisa SmartConservativeWilliam WraggNot elected
Hitchin and HarpendenEnglandLiberal DemocratsSam CollinsConservativeBim AfolamiNot elected
Isle of WightEnglandGreenVix LowthionConservativeBob SeelyNot elected
LlanelliWalesPlaid CymruMari ArthurLabourNia GriffithNot elected
MontgomeryshireWalesLiberal DemocratsKishan DevaniConservativeGlyn DaviesNot elected
North CornwallEnglandLiberal DemocratsDanny ChambersConservativeScott MannNot elected
North NorfolkEnglandLiberal DemocratsKaren WardLiberal DemocratsNorman LambNot elected
Oxford West and AbingdonEnglandLiberal DemocratsLayla MoranLiberal DemocratsLayla MoranElected
Penistone and StocksbridgeEnglandLiberal DemocratsHannah KitchingLiberal Democrats
won as Labour
Angela SmithNot elected
PontypriddWalesPlaid CymruFflur ElinLabourOwen SmithNot elected
Portsmouth SouthEnglandLiberal DemocratsGerald Vernon-JacksonLabourStephen MorganNot elected
Richmond ParkEnglandLiberal DemocratsSarah OlneyConservativeZac GoldsmithElected
Romsey and Southampton NorthEnglandLiberal DemocratsCraig FletcherConservativeCaroline NokesNot elected
RushcliffeEnglandLiberal DemocratsJason BillinIndependent
won as Conservative
Kenneth ClarkeNot elected
StroudEnglandGreenMolly Scott CatoLabourDavid DrewNot elected
South CambridgeshireEnglandLiberal DemocratsIan SollomLiberal Democrats
won as Conservative
Heidi Allen[24] Not elected
South East CambridgeshireEnglandLiberal DemocratsPippa HeylingsConservativeLucy FrazerNot elected
South West SurreyEnglandLiberal DemocratsPaul FollowsConservativeJeremy HuntNot elected
SouthportEnglandLiberal DemocratsJohn WrightConservativeDamien MooreNot elected
Taunton DeaneEnglandLiberal DemocratsGideon AmosConservativeRebecca PowNot elected
Thornbury and YateEnglandLiberal DemocratsClaire YoungConservativeLuke HallNot elected
TotnesEnglandLiberal DemocratsSarah WollastonLiberal Democrats
won as Conservative
Sarah WollastonNot elected
Tunbridge WellsEnglandLiberal DemocratsBen ChapelardConservativeGreg ClarkNot elected
TwickenhamEnglandLiberal DemocratsMunira WilsonLiberal DemocratsVince CableElected
WantageEnglandLiberal DemocratsRichard BenwellConservativeEd VaizeyNot elected
Warrington SouthEnglandLiberal DemocratsRyan BateLabourFaisal RashidNot elected
Westmorland and LonsdaleEnglandLiberal DemocratsTim FarronLiberal DemocratsTim FarronElected
WatfordEnglandLiberal DemocratsIan StotesburyConservativeRichard HarringtonNot elected
WellsEnglandLiberal DemocratsTessa MuntConservativeJames HeappeyNot elected
WimbledonEnglandLiberal DemocratsPaul KohlerConservativeStephen HammondNot elected
WinchesterEnglandLiberal DemocratsPaula FergusonConservativeSteve BrineNot elected
WitneyEnglandLiberal DemocratsCharlotte HoaglandConservativeRobert CourtsNot elected
Vale of GlamorganWalesGreenAnthony SlaughterConservativeAlun CairnsNot elected
York OuterEnglandLiberal DemocratsKeith AspdenConservativeJulian SturdyNot elected
Ynys MônWalesPlaid CymruAled ap DafyddLabourAlbert OwenNot elected

Pre-election analysis

Psephologist John Curtice stated that the pact could be critical in "half a dozen" seats that could have otherwise been won by the Conservatives.[25]

An analysis published in the Financial Times attempted to evaluate the potential impact of the pact. This analysis applied uniform regional swing based on polling (as of early November) to the 2017 result to estimate the parties' standings in the seats before the pact, then assumed that voters for parties standing aside would transfer their support as per the pact. The analysis found that in 18 seats the Unite to Remain party would not need the pact in order to win, in 39 the pact would be insufficient to secure victory, and in two (Brecon and Radnorshire and Winchester) the pact would make the critical difference between winning and losing for the Unite to Remain party.[26]

Other pro-Remain arrangements

In addition to the Unite to Remain pact, the Liberal Democrats did not stand candidates against the following anti-Brexit or "soft Brexit" supporting incumbents:

All failed to be elected.

In Canterbury, the original Liberal Democrat candidate (Tim Walker) stood down in aid of the Labour incumbent Rosie Duffield, but the Lib Dems stood a replacement candidate.[30] Duffield retained her seat.

In Northern Ireland, Sinn Féin, the SDLP and the Green Party in Northern Ireland all stood aside in certain constituencies to increase the chances of anti-Brexit candidates.[31]

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Gwil #FBPE #RevokeA50 #UniteToRemain (@Better_Gov) | Twitter. twitter.com.
  2. Web site: The Guardian view on the Unite to Remain pact: a response to a failed system Editorial . The Guardian . 7 November 2019 . 7 November 2019.
  3. Web site: Nixon . Matthew . Polling expert John Curtice makes prediction about Remain pact . The New European . 7 November 2019 . en . 7 November 2019.
  4. Web site: Hymas . Charles . Tories seek electoral watchdog inquiry into Remain electoral pact that threatens their seats . The Telegraph . 7 November 2019 . 7 November 2019.
  5. Web site: Unite to Remain agreement . Liberal Democrats . 7 November 2019 . en . 7 November 2019.
  6. News: Proctor . Kate . Lib Dems, Greens and Plaid Cymru reveal remain election pact . 7 November 2019 . The Guardian . 7 November 2019.
  7. News: Remain by-election pact could cut new PM's majority to three. Devlin. Kate. 2019-07-04. The Times. 2019-11-10. en. 0140-0460.
  8. Web site: 'Surely now he has to listen?' Newly-elected MP Jane Dodds says she will challenge PM to take no deal off table. ITV News. 2 August 2019. en. 2019-11-10.
  9. Web site: Hopes grow for General Election 'Remain Alliance' following Brecon and Radnorshire by-election. 2019-08-02. Left Foot Forward. en-GB. 2019-11-10.
  10. Web site: Green Party responds to announcement of formation of Unite for Remain The Green Party. www.greenparty.org.uk. 2019-11-10.
  11. Web site: 'Unite to Remain': UK parties form anti-Brexit election pact. Tidey. Alice. 7 November 2019. euronews. en. 8 November 2019.
  12. News: Lib Dems, Plaid Cymru and Greens to launch pro-remain pact. Walker. Peter. 6 November 2019. The Guardian. 9 November 2019. Stewart. Heather. en-GB. 0261-3077.
  13. Web site: View registration – Unite to Remain. The Electoral Commission. 2019-11-10.
  14. Web site: A guide to the Remain pact between the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Greens. Rea. Ailbhe. 7 November 2019. New Statesman. en. 9 November 2019.
  15. Web site: Unite to Remain agreement. 2019-11-07. Liberal Democrats. en. 2019-11-10.
  16. Web site: Thank you @RenewParty ! This is what country first politics looks like https://twitter.com/renewparty/status/1194570741410344960 …. Allen. Heidi. 2019-11-13. @heidiallen75. en. 2019-11-14.
  17. News: Salisbury . Josh . General Election 2019: 'Unite to Remain' pact agreed in Bermondsey & Old Southwark and Dulwich & West Norwood . 7 November 2019 . Southwark News . 7 November 2019.
  18. Web site: le Duc . Frank . Brighton Pavilion Lib Dem candidate stands down for second election running . Brighton and Hove News . 7 November 2019 . 7 November 2019.
  19. News: Cork . Tristan . Rogers . Alexandra . Lib Dems will not field a candidate in Bristol West . 7 November 2019 . Bristol Post . 7 November 2019.
  20. News: Dean . Sam . Liberal Democrat candidate 'grateful' The Green Party is stepping aside in Buckingham . 7 November 2019 . Buckingham Today . 7 November 2019 . en.
  21. Web site: The seats in Wales that are part of the 'Remain Alliance' pact. ITV News. 7 November 2019. en. 8 November 2019.
  22. Web site: The seats in Wales that are part of the 'Remain Alliance' pact . ITV News . 7 November 2019 . en . 7 November 2019.
  23. Web site: Lloyd . Howard . Liberal Democrats reveal they will not contest Exeter at general election . Devon Live . 7 November 2019 . 7 November 2019.
  24. News: Gardner . Gemma . General Election 2019: Green Party step aside for Liberal Democrats in Unite to Remain agreement . 7 November 2019 . Cambridge Independent . 7 November 2019 . en.
  25. Web site: Polling expert John Curtice makes prediction about Remain pact. Nixon. Matthew. The New European. en. 2019-11-10.
  26. Web site: Three anti-Brexit parties launch election pact in 60 seats. Payne. Sebastian. Stabe. Martin. 7 November 2019. Financial Times. en-GB. 8 November 2019.
  27. News: Lib Dems will stand aside for Dominic Grieve, as polling predicts a Boris Johnson majority. Jones. Amy. 30 October 2019. The Telegraph. 8 November 2019. en-GB. 0307-1235.
  28. Web site: Luton Liberal Democrats Put Country Before Party By Standing Down In Luton South For Pro-Remain Independent – Luton Liberal Democrats. www.lutonlibdems.org.uk. 9 November 2019.
  29. News: Sandeman . Kit . Lib Dems will not stand in Broxtowe against Anna Soubry, party confirms . 9 November 2019 . Nottingham Post . 7 November 2019.
  30. News: Francis . Paul . General Election 2019: Liberal Democrats line up new candidate Claire Malcolmson to replace Tim Walker in Canterbury. 15 November 2019 . Kent Online . 13 November 2019.
  31. Web site: Sinn Féin to stand aside for remain candidates in three constituencies . Rory Carroll. The Guardian. 4 November 2019. 8 November 2019.