Tim Palmer (physicist) explained

Tim Palmer
Birth Name:Timothy Noel Palmer
Birth Date:1952 12, df=yes
Birth Place:Kingston upon Thames, Surrey, England
Thesis Url:http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.468089
Thesis Title:Covariant conservation equations and their relation to the energy- momentum concept in general relativity
Thesis Year:1977
Doctoral Advisor:Dennis William Sciama

Timothy Noel Palmer (born 31 December 1952) is a mathematical physicist by training. He has spent most of his career working on the dynamics and predictability of weather and climate. Among various research achievements, he pioneered the development of probabilistic ensemble forecasting techniques for weather and climate prediction (at the Met Office and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts).[1] These techniques are now standard in operational weather and climate prediction around the world, and are central for reliable decision making for many commercial and humanitarian applications.

Early life and education

Palmer was born in Kingston upon Thames, Surrey in 1952.[2] He received a 1st Class Joint Honours Degree in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Bristol[3] and a Doctor of Philosophy in General Relativity Theory from the University of Oxford.[4]

Research

Palmer’s research has focused on the nonlinear predictability and dynamics of the climate system. He co-discovered the world's largest breaking waves,[5] and proposed a nonlinear framework for the regional manifestation of climate change, based on the nonlinear dynamics of quasi-stationary weather regimes.[6] He was among the first to propose the importance of developing unified or "seamless" weather and climate prediction models.[7] Palmer's research is focussed on the development of stochastic parametrisations in weather and climate simulators, and the application of inexact computing[8] techniques for developing ultra-high resolution climate models.[9] Palmer believes strongly that human and computing resources must be pooled internationally to develop reliable climate prediction systems. He remains active in the area of fundamental physics, promoting the synergistic "Cosmological Invariant Set Postulate" as a primitive geometric principle for physics of the large and small.[10]

Career

After a chance meeting with geophysicist Raymond Hide, he became interested in climate and was employed by the Met Office – including a year at the University of Washington. In 1986 he joined the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts where he led the newly formed Predictability and Diagnostics Division, where he led the development of the ECMWF medium-range ensemble prediction system and the European DEMETER multi-model ensemble seasonal climate prediction system.[11] In 2010 Palmer became a Professor of Climate Physics at the University of Oxford,[12] being one of the "2010 Anniversary" Royal Society Research Professors, created to celebrate the Royal Society's 350th Anniversary. At Oxford, Palmer is additionally co-director of the Oxford Martin Programme on Modelling and Predicting Climate[13] and is a professorial fellow at Jesus College, Oxford.[14]

Awards and honours

Palmer was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society (FRS) in 2003,[15] and was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) in the 2015 New Year Honours for services to science.[16] Other awards include:

The Primacy of Doubt

In October 2022 Palmer published a popular science book on the science of uncertainty called “The Primacy of Doubt”.[29]  Without equations, it described the physics and mathematics of chaos, applying it to weather, climate, economics, pandemics, conflict, human creativity, free will and consciousness. It also discussed the question of whether, at the deepest level, quantum uncertainty is different to chaotic uncertainty - Palmer believes not. The book received favourable blurbs from Roger Penrose, Martin Rees, Syukuro Manabe and Sabine Hossenfelder. Brian Clegg of Popular Science wrote “This is quite possibly the best popular science book I've ever read (and I’ve read many hundreds)."[30]

See also

Notes and References

  1. Palmer. Tim. The ECMWF ensemble prediction system: Looking back (more than) 25 years and projecting forward 25 years. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. en. 10.1002/qj.3383. 1477-870X. 2018. 145 . 12–24 . 1803.06940. 4944687.
  2. Web site: Tim Palmer .
  3. Web site: Professor Tim Palmer, CBE, FRS . Honorary Graduates 2016 . . 21 July 2016 . 2016-10-17 .
  4. DPhil. University of Oxford. Covariant Conservation Equations and their Relation to the Energy-Momentum Concept in General Relativity. Timothy Noel. Palmer. 1977. 500534804.
  5. McIntyre, M.E. and T.N. Palmer, 1983:  Breaking planetary waves in the stratosphere. Nature, 305, 593‑600.
  6. Palmer, T.N., 1998: Climate change from a nonlinear dynamical perspective. J.Clim.,12, 575-591.
  7. Palmer, T.N. and P.J. Webster, 1993: Towards a unified approach to climate and weather prediction.  Proceedings of 1st Demetra Conference on Climate Change.  European Community Press
  8. Palem. K.V.. Energy Aware Computing through Probabilistic Switching: A Study of Limits. IEEE Transactions on Computers. September 2005. 54. 9. 1123–1137. 10.1109/TC.2005.145. 3245545.
  9. Duben. P. D.. Joven. J.. Lingamneni. A.. McNamara. H.. De Micheli. G.. Palem. K. V.. Palmer. T. N.. On the use of inexact, pruned hardware in atmospheric modelling. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences. 19 May 2014. 372. 2018. 20130276. 10.1098/rsta.2013.0276. 24842031. 4024232. 2014RSPTA.37230276D.
  10. Palmer T.N. (2020). Discretization of the Bloch sphere, fractal invariant sets and Bell’s theorem. Proc. Roy. Soc. A, 476, .
  11. Palmer, T.N.. A. Alessandri, U. Anderson  and co-authors. 2004. The Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 85, 853-872.[7]
  12. Web site: Tim Palmer . University of Oxford Department of Physics . 2014-11-07 .
  13. Web site: Professor Tim Palmer Co-Director, Programme on Modelling and Predicting Climate . . 2014-11-07 .
  14. Web site: Professor Tim Palmer . . 2014-11-07 .
  15. Web site: https://web.archive.org/web/20151117113046/https://royalsociety.org/people/tim-palmer-12036/. 2015-11-17. Professor Tim Palmer CBE FRS. royalsociety.org. Anon. 2003. Royal Society. London. One or more of the preceding sentences incorporates text from the royalsociety.org website where:
  16. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/391413/New_Year_Honours_List_2015.pdf 2015 New Year Honours List
  17. Web site: Winners of the Norbert Gerbier-MUMM International Award . . 2014-11-07 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20141028150730/http://www.wmo.int/pages/about/awards/winners_mumm_en.html . 28 October 2014 . dmy-all .
  18. Web site: Double Success for Dr Tim Palmer . . 20 October 2009 . 2014-11-07 .
  19. Web site: 2014 Dirac medal . . 2014-11-07 .
  20. Web site: Newly Elected – April 2015 . . 2015-04-28 . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20150816203936/https://amphilsoc.org/members/electedApril2015 . 16 August 2015 . dmy-all .
  21. Web site: University of Bristol Honorary Degree. YouTube.
  22. Web site: International member Academy Lincei.
  23. Web site: EGU announces 2018 awards and medals . Karatekin . Özgür . Ferreira . Bárbara . . 2017-10-09 . 2017-10-10 .
  24. Web site: 2019 Awards and Honors Recipients . . 2018-07-24 .
  25. Web site: International membership AAAS. 6 December 2023.
  26. Web site: 2020 NAS Election. National Academy of Sciences. 2020-04-28.
  27. Web site: Simion @Yonescat . Florin . Royal Astronomical Society unveils 2023 award winners . 2023-02-28 . The Royal Astronomical Society . en.
  28. Web site: Admittance Day 2023 . www.ria.ie . 26 May 2023 . Royal Irish Academy . 27 May 2023.
  29. Book: Palmer, Tim N. . The primacy of doubt : from quantum physics to climate change, how the science of uncertainty can help us understand our chaotic world . 2022 . 978-1-5416-1971-5 . First . New York . 1296943687.
  30. Web site: The Primacy of Doubt - Tim Palmer ***** . 2023-02-28 . popsciencebooks.blogspot.com.

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