2024 United States Senate election in Montana explained

Election Name:2024 United States Senate election in Montana
Country:Montana
Type:presidential
Ongoing:yes
Previous Election:2018 United States Senate election in Montana
Previous Year:2018
Next Election:2030 United States Senate election in Montana
Next Year:2030
Election Date:November 5, 2024
Image1:JonTester (cropped 2).jpg
Nominee1:Jon Tester
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Nominee2:Tim Sheehy
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Jon Tester
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is seeking a fourth term. He is being challenged by Republican Tim Sheehy. Primary elections took place on June 4, 2024.[1]

This race is one of three Democratic-held U.S. Senate seats up for election in 2024 in states Donald Trump won in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, alongside Ohio and West Virginia. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[2] Republicans last held both of Montana's Senate seats in 1911.

Background

Montana is generally considered a strongly red state at the federal level, voting for Republican candidates in each presidential election starting in 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the state by double digits in every race except in 2008. As of May 2024, Republicans control both of Montana's U.S. House seats, the other U.S. Senate seat, both houses of the state legislature, and the governorship.

In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Montana by 56.92% to 40.55%. Despite the state's heavy partisan lean in favor of the Republican Party, Tester is popular among his constituents. Because of this and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split, the race is considered to be a tossup. Most polls initially showed Tester to be leading or nearly even, but Sheehy has since gained an edge. Tester is widely seen as being the most vulnerable incumbent running for re-election, due to Montana's strong Republican lean and the decline of split-ticket voting.[3] [4] [5]

Top-two primary proposal

On April 4, 2023, Montana's State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians alleged the bill was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee, with Democratic state senator Ryan Lynch calling it a "partisan power grab."[6] [7]

After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[8] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[9] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[10]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Withdrew

Declined

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of May 15, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Brad Johnson (R)$42,967$39,697$3,270
Tim Sheehy (R)$10,547,437$8,324,164$2,223,272
Source: Federal Election Commission

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Brad
Johnson
Matt
Rosendale
Tim
Sheehy
Other/Undecided
co/efficient (R)November 12–14, 2023888 (LV)± 3.28%24%40%36%
Fabrizio, Lee & AssociatesOctober 23–25, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%6%35%38%21%
0%41%44%15%
J.L. PartnersAugust 12–17, 2023418 (LV)?52%21%28%
Public Policy Polling (D)June 19–20, 2023510 (LV)± 4.3%64%10%26%

Results

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Nominee

Green primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[22] November 30, 2023
align=left Inside Elections[23] November 9, 2023
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] November 9, 2023
align=left Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[25] July 11, 2024
align=left Elections Daily[26] May 4, 2023
align=left CNalysis[27] July 14, 2024
align=left RealClearPolitics[28] August 5, 2024

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2024
CandidateRaisedSpentCash on hand
Jon Tester (D)$43,775,556$33,373,881$10,882,249
Tim Sheehy (R)$14,065,648$10,795,082$3,270,566
Source: Federal Election Commission[29]

Polling

Aggregate polls
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Tim
Sheehy (R)
OtherUndecided
Rasmussen Reports (R)data-sort-value="2024-08-15" August 13–20, 2024835 (LV)± 3.0%43%50%7%
RMG Researchdata-sort-value="2024-08-15" August 6–14, 2024540 (RV)± 4.2%49%44%2%4%
American Pulse Research & Pollingdata-sort-value="2024-08-12" August 10–12, 2024538 (RV)± 4.2%45%51%4%
Emerson Collegedata-sort-value="2024-08-08" August 5–6, 20241,000 (LV)± 3.0%46%48%5%
Remington Research Group (R)data-sort-value="2024-06-20" June 29 – July 1, 2024601 (LV)45%50%5%
Torchlight Strategies (R)June 22–26, 2024649 (RV)± 3.9%41%47%5%7%
Public Opinion Strategies (R)June 11–13, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%46%46%4%4%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)June 3–5, 2024500 (LV)± 4.4%48%48%4%
43%46%4%7%
J.L. PartnersMarch 26–29, 2024503 (LV)± 4.3%45%48%7%
Emerson CollegeFebruary 26 – March 2, 20241,000 (RV)± 3.0%44%42%14%
SurveyUSAFebruary 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%49%40%3%7%
Emerson CollegeOctober 1–4, 2023447 (RV)± 4.6%39%35%6%21%
J.L. PartnersAugust 12–17, 2023741 (LV)42%46%12%
Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
Jon Tester vs. Brad Johnson
Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jon
Tester (D)
Matt
Rosendale (R)
OtherUndecided
SurveyUSAFebruary 12–15, 2024549 (LV)± 4.5%49%40%4%7%
J.L. PartnersAugust 12–17, 2023741 (LV)?43%46%11%
OnMessage Inc. (R)February 18–21, 2023600 (LV)± 4.0%41%46%5%7%
Political Company (R)January 30 – February 1, 2023534 (LV)± 4.0%45%40%15%
Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke

Results

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. Web site: 2024 State Primary Election Dates . 2023-08-06 . www.ncsl.org.
  2. Web site: Everett . Burgess . GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal . Politico . August 2, 2022 . August 29, 2022.
  3. News: Yokley . Eli . Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024 . 27 April 2023 . . 19 April 2023.
  4. News: Coleman . J. Miles . The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting . 27 April 2023 . . 11 July 2024. .
  5. News: Draeger . Jonathan. GOP Poised To Regain Senate Majority, Polls Indicate. 13 July 2024 . . 19 April 2023.
  6. News: Arren . Kimbel-Sannit . April 3, 2023 . Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race.
  7. Web site: Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester. April 5, 2023. AP News. August 6, 2023.
  8. News: Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules. The New York Times . April 14, 2023 . Corasaniti . Nick .
  9. News: Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary. Matthew . Brown . April 19, 2023 . Associated Press .
  10. Web site: Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3. Daily Kos. August 6, 2023. Singer, Jeff. The end of Montana’s legislative session Tuesday night means that the GOP proposal to conduct the 2024 Senate election using top-two rules in order to weaken Democratic incumbent Jon Tester is officially dead...it passed the state Senate last month. A state House committee, though, tabled the measure weeks later, and an attempt to resurrect the top-two also failed a short time later..
  11. Web site: Concepcion . Summer . 2023-02-22 . Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024 . 2023-02-22 . . en.
  12. Web site: FEDERAL PRIMARY 2024 Candidate List . 2024-03-12 . prodcandidatefiling.mt.gov.
  13. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Montana . fec.gov . . August 11, 2023.
  14. Web site: Warren . Bradley . 2023-06-27 . Tim Sheehy announces run for U.S. Senate in Montana . 2023-06-27 . KULR-8 Local News . en.
  15. News: October 18, 2023 . . Rafferty . Melissa . October 18, 2023 . Brad Johnson announces he's running for U.S. Senate in Montana.
  16. News: . October 26, 2023 . October 19, 2023 . Millions already spent in highly watched Montana U.S. Senate race . Ambarian . Jonathan . One other Republican has decided not to stay in the race for U.S. Senate. Jeremy Mygland, who owns a construction business...announced last week that he would instead run for the Montana Senate. In his statement, he praised Rosendale and encouraged him to enter the race to challenge Tester..
  17. Web site: Zanona . Melanie . 2024-03-08 . GOP Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana says he is not running for reelection CNN Politics . 2024-03-08 . CNN . en.
  18. Web site: The Hill . Montana governor backs Tim Sheehy in Senate race . Carolin . Vakil . June 29, 2023 .
  19. News: Warren. Bradley. Congressman Ryan Zinke officially endorses Tim Sheehy for US Senate. Jul 5, 2023. Nonstop Local—ABC FOX. There was speculation Zinke could enter the race, but that speculation now shut down with this endorsement..
  20. Web site: Montana Democrat Monica Tranel announces run for U.S. Congress. Corrin. Noah. Warren. Bradley. July 10, 2023. July 10, 2023. KTMF. Zinke plans to run for reelection, setting up a potential rematch of the 2022 race..
  21. News: Sagnor, Denali . November 14, 2023 . November 16, 2023 . . Kalispell Libertarian Sid Daoud Announces Third-Party Senate Run.
  22. Web site: 2024 Senate Race ratings . 2023-01-25 . Cook Political Report . en.
  23. Web site: January 6, 2023. January 10, 2023 . Senate Ratings . Inside Elections.
  24. Web site: January 24, 2023. February 13, 2023 . 2024 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball.
  25. Web site: 2024 Senate prediction map . June 8, 2024 . elections2024.thehill.com/ . . July 11, 2024.
  26. Web site: 2023-08-01 . Election Ratings . 2023-08-02 . Elections Daily . en-US.
  27. Web site: '24 Senate Forecast . November 21, 2023 . CNalysis . en-US.
  28. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2024 . August 5, 2024 . . en-US.
  29. Web site: 2024 Election United States Senate - Montana . fec.gov . . August 11, 2023.