2022 United States Senate election in Washington explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Washington
Country:Washington
Type:presidential
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Washington
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Washington
Next Year:2028
Image1:Patty Murray, official portrait, 113th Congress (cropped).jpg
Candidate1:Patty Murray
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,741,827
Percentage1:57.15%
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Candidate2:Tiffany Smiley
Popular Vote2:1,299,322
Percentage2:42.63%
U.S. senator
Before Election:Patty Murray
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Patty Murray
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2022 United States Senate election in Washington was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Washington. Incumbent senator Patty Murray was first elected in 1992 with 54% of the vote to succeed retiring fellow Democrat Brock Adams. Murray won re-election to a fifth term in 2016 with 59% of the vote.[1]

Because Washington has a blanket primary system, parties did not nominate their own candidates to run in the general election. Instead, every candidate appeared on the same ballot, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two candidates in the August 2 nonpartisan blanket primary then advanced to the general election. Murray received 52.2% of the primary vote and advanced to face Republican Tiffany Smiley.[2]

Although Washington has been a reliably blue state for over 30 years, many polls showed that Murray only had a narrow lead over Smiley, and some polls had Smiley within the margin of error. A couple of late polls had the two candidates tied; such polls caused most pundits to downgrade their forecast from "safe Democratic" to "likely Democratic", and Republicans believed that Smiley had a chance of pulling off an upset.[3] Despite the predictions of a close race, Murray defeated Smiley and won re-election to a sixth term by a 14.5-point margin. Although this was a significantly larger margin of victory for Murray than what was expected, it was fairly consistent with Washington's partisan lean.[4] Smiley conceded the following day. Despite her loss, she made significant gains in several counties, particularly in the Southwestern and Eastern parts of the state.[5]

Following the election, Murray was elected president pro tempore for the 118th Congress, becoming the first woman to hold the role.[6]

Primary election

Democratic candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn before primary

Republican candidates

Advanced to general

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn before primary

Third party and independent candidates

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn before primary

Results

General election

Debates

Two debates were held, the first on October 23 at Gonzaga University.[9] The second was town hall-style forum on October 30 in the KIRO-TV studio in Seattle.[10]

Murray's campaign declined an invitation to a scheduled debate on October 25 at Seattle University.

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[11] October 18, 2022
align=left Inside Elections[12] July 1, 2022
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] October 19, 2022
Politico[14] November 3, 2022
RCP[15] October 30, 2022
align=left Fox News[16] November 1, 2022
DDHQ[17] September 12, 2022
538[18] October 19, 2022
The Economist[19] September 7, 2022

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Patty
Murray (D)
Tiffany
Smiley (R)
Undecided
Margin
Real Clear PoliticsOctober 14 – October 31, 2022November 3, 202249.3%46.3%4.4%Murray +3.0
FiveThirtyEightMay 25, 2021 – November 8, 2022November 7, 202249.6%44.9%6.5%Murray +4.7
270ToWinOctober 21 – November 1, 2022November 7, 202249.5%44.5%6.0%Murray +4.3
Average49.5%45.2%5.3%Murray +4.3
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Patty
Murray (D)
Tiffany
Smiley (R)
OtherUndecided
Moore Information Group (R)November 3–5, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%47%47%5%
InsiderAdvantage (R)October 31, 2022550 (LV)± 4.2%48%46%6%
The Trafalgar Group (R)October 25–28, 20221,207 (LV)± 2.9%49%48%2%
Triton Polling & ResearchOctober 26–27, 2022506 (LV)± 4.4%51%45%4%
Moore Information Group (R)October 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%46%46%8%
KAConsulting (R)October 20–22, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%48%42%4%6%
co/efficient (R)October 19–20, 20221,181 (LV)± 3.0%48%45%7%
Public Policy Polling (D)October 19–20, 2022782 (LV)± 3.5%52%42%6%
SurveyUSAOctober 14–19, 2022589 (LV)± 5.0%49%41%10%
CiviqsOctober 15–18, 2022698 (LV)± 4.5%55%41%3%2%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 29 – October 1, 2022782 (LV)± 3.4%51%42%7%
Public Policy Polling (D)September 27–28, 2022770 (V)± 3.5%52%40%8%
OnMessage Inc. (R)September 20–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%46%42%5%6%
Strategies 360September 22–25, 2022500 (RV)± 4.4%50%36%14%
370 (LV)± 5.1%52%40%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 21–24, 20221,091 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%5%
Elway ResearchSeptember 12–15, 2022403 (LV)± 3.0%50%37%12%
Public Policy Polling (D)September 6–7, 2022620 (V)± 3.0%48%39%13%
Moore Information Group (R)September 2022500 (LV)± 4.0%48%44%8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 30 – September 1, 20221,087 (LV)± 2.9%49%46%5%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)August 15–17, 2022500 (LV)± 4.4%49%43%8%
Elway ResearchJuly 7–11, 2022400 (RV)± 4.5%53%33%15%
SurveyUSAJuly 6–10, 2022596 (LV)± 5.0%51%33%16%
The Tarrance Group (R)June 14–19, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%48%43%9%
Public Policy Polling (D)June 1–2, 20221,039 (LV)± 3.0%51%40%8%
Public Policy Polling (D)February 17–18, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%50%41%9%
Public Policy Polling (D)November 10–11, 2021909 (LV)± 3.3%50%37%13%
SurveyUSAOctober 25–28, 2021542 (RV)± 5.2%49%31%20%
Public Policy Polling (D)May 25–26, 2021992 (LV)± 3.1%53%37%10%
Patty Murray vs. generic Republican
Patty Murray vs. generic opponent

Results

By county

CountyPatty MurrayDemocraticTiffany SmileyRepublicanWrite-InTotal
%%%
Adams23.46%96976.25%3,1500.29%124,131
Asotin35.27%3,18164.58%5,8240.14%139,018
Benton33.68%25,51366.15%50,1080.17%12875,749
Chelan41.94%14,37357.87%19,8330.20%6734,273
Clallam51.60%20,78448.17%19,4010.23%9440,279
Clark51.09%105,05848.76%100,2600.14%298205,616
Columbia27.17%59272.28%1,5750.55%122,179
Cowlitz38.80%17,43961.07%27,4460.13%5744,942
Douglas32.73%5,27567.05%10,0860.22%3616,117
Ferry31.04%1,06068.76%2,3480.20%73,415
Franklin31.61%7,02268.31%15,1740.08%1822,214
Garfield23.85%30775.91%9770.23%31,287
Grant26.83%7,22173.03%19,6550.13%3626,912
Grays Harbor46.26%13,60053.46%15,7180.28%8129,399
Island55.00%23,68044.77%19,2750.24%10243,057
Jefferson70.62%14,97029.18%6,1850.21%4421,199
King75.05%668,69224.73%220,3070.22%1,943890,942
Kitsap57.51%70,93942.26%52,1340.23%276123,351
Kittitas39.99%8,31859.84%12,4460.16%3420,798
Klickitat41.89%4,79857.96%6,6390.16%1811,455
Lewis31.29%11,26368.50%24,6540.21%7535,992
Lincoln23.12%1,42376.63%4,7160.24%156,154
Mason46.74%13,77752.97%15,6120.29%8629,475
Okanogan40.01%6,64459.78%9,9260.20%3416,605
Pacific48.32%5,77151.39%6,1370.29%3511,943
Pend Oreille29.94%2,03269.82%4,7390.24%166,787
Pierce52.69%175,16447.02%156,3310.29%959332,454
San Juan72.88%8,25426.97%3,0550.15%1711,326
Skagit51.57%29,31648.19%27,3940.24%13956,849
Skamania42.07%2,62057.80%3,5990.13%86,227
Snohomish57.52%184,43042.21%135,3390.27%864320,633
Spokane45.46%100,71954.34%120,3690.20%443221,531
Stevens26.50%6,07373.31%16,8030.19%4322,919
Thurston58.04%73,18941.69%52,5700.28%347126,106
Wahkiakum39.26%1,00760.47%1,5510.27%72,565
Walla Walla41.38%10,03958.50%14,1920.12%2924,260
Whatcom59.32%65,95040.51%45,0380.16%182111,170
Whitman49.81%7,82449.96%7,8480.22%3515,707
Yakima35.86%22,54163.93%40,1880.22%13662,865
Total57.15%1,741,82742.63%1,299,3220.226,7513,047,900
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, with the remaining 3 going to Smiley, including one that elected a Democrat.[20]

DistrictMurraySmileyRepresentative
62%37%Suzan DelBene
59%41%Rick Larsen
46%54%Jaime Herrera Beutler (117th Congress)
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (118th Congress)
34%66%Dan Newhouse
42%58%Cathy McMorris Rodgers
57%43%Derek Kilmer
87%13%Pramila Jayapal
51%49%Kim Schrier
71%29%Adam Smith
57%43%Marilyn Strickland

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Senator Patty Murray announces reelection campaign. Kiro Radio. Newsdesk. My Northwest. May 17, 2021.
  2. Web site: 2022-08-02 . Sen. Patty Murray, Tiffany Smiley advance in Washington Senate primary . 2022-09-30 . PBS NewsHour . en-us.
  3. Web site: Democrats scramble to avert shock Senate loss in Washington state . . October 26, 2022 .
  4. News: Gutman . David . November 8, 2022 . Patty Murray defeats Tiffany Smiley in U.S. Senate race . . November 8, 2022.
  5. Web site: Tiffany Smiley concedes U.S. Senate race to Sen. Patty Murray . KOMO News . November 9, 2022 . Sinclair Broadcasting Group . 10 November 2022.
  6. Web site: Shabad. Rebecca. Sen. Patty Murray becomes first female president pro tempore. NBC News. January 3, 2023. April 3, 2023.
  7. Web site: PRIMARY 2022 Candidate List . 2022-06-02 . voter.votewa.gov.
  8. Web site: Republican Tiffany Smiley says she is running for Patty Murray's Seat in U.S Senate. live. The Seattle Times. April 14, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210415023753/https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/republican-tiffany-smiley-says-she-is-running-for-patty-murrays-seat-in-u-s-senate/ . April 15, 2021 .
  9. Web site: Brunner . Jim . Debates in WA set for U.S. Senate, House, secretary of state races . . 28 September 2022 . 16 September 2022.
  10. News: Gutman . David . October 14, 2022 . 2nd Patty Murray, Tiffany Smiley event announced in WA Senate race . . live . October 28, 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20221024201952/https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/2nd-patty-murray-tiffany-smiley-event-announced-in-wa-senate-race/ . October 24, 2022.
  11. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . October 18, 2022.
  12. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  13. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  14. Web site: Washington Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  15. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  16. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . August 22, 2022 . August 22, 2022.
  17. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  18. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  19. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  20. Results . sos.wa.gov . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20221229170038/https://www.sos.wa.gov/_assets/elections/research/2022Gen%20Results%20by%20Congressional%20District.pdf . 2022-12-29.