Electoral history of the Tea Party movement explained

The Tea Party movement, founded in 2009, is an American political movement that advocates strict adherence to the United States Constitution,[1] reducing U.S. government spending and taxes,[2] [3] and reduction of the U.S. national debt and federal budget deficit.

In the 2010 midterm elections, The New York Times identified 138 candidates for Congress with significant Tea Party support, and reported that all of them were running as Republicans. According to a calculation on an NBC blog, of the candidates that were backed by a Tea Party group, or identified themselves as a Tea Party member, 50% were elected to the Senate and 31% to the House. In addition, research by economists Andreas Madestam of Stockholm University, Daniel Shoag and David Yanagizawa-Drott of Harvard University, and Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute estimated that the Tea Party movement protests generated 2.7–5.5 million additional votes nationwide for the Republican Party in the 2010 House elections.[4]

Founding of Tea Party movement

On February 19, 2009,[5] in a broadcast from the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, CNBC Business News Network editor Rick Santelli loudly criticized the government plan to refinance mortgages as "promoting bad behavior" by "subsidizing losers' mortgages", and raised the possibility of putting together a "Chicago Tea Party in July".[6] [7] A number of the traders and brokers around him cheered on his proposal, to the apparent amusement of the hosts in the studio. It was called "the rant heard round the world".[8] Santelli's remarks "set the fuse to the modern anti-Obama Tea Party movement", according to journalist Lee Fang.[9]

The following day after Santelli's comments from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, 50 national conservative leaders, including Michael Johns, Amy Kremer and Jenny Beth Martin, participated in a conference call that gave birth to the national Tea Party movement.[10] [11] In response to Santelli, websites such as ChicagoTeaParty.com, registered in August 2008 by Chicago radio producer Zack Christenson, were live within twelve hours.[12] About 10 hours after Santelli's remarks, reTeaParty.com was bought to coordinate Tea Parties scheduled for the 4th of July and within two weeks was reported to be receiving 11,000 visitors a day.[12] However, on the contrary, many scholars are reluctant to label Santelli's remarks the "spark" of the Tea Party considering that a "Tea Party" protest had taken place 3 days before in Seattle, Washington[13] In fact, this had led many opponents of the Tea Party to define this movement as "astroturfed," but it seems as if Santelli's comments did not "fall on deaf ears" considering that, "the top 50 counties in foreclosure rates played host to over 910 Tea Party protests, about one-sixth of the total"[13]

2010 election

In the 2010 midterm elections, The New York Times identified 138 candidates for Congress with significant Tea Party support, and reported that all of them were running as Republicans—of whom 129 were running for the House and 9 for the Senate.[14] The Wall Street Journal – NBC News poll in mid October showed 35% of likely voters were Tea-party supporters, and they favored the Republicans by 84% to 10%.[15] The first Tea Party candidate to be elected into office is believed to be Dean Murray, a Long Island businessman, who won a special election for a New York State Assembly seat in February 2010.

According to a calculation on an NBC blog, 32% of the candidates that were backed by the Tea Party, or identified themselves as a Tea Party member, won the election.[16] In the primaries for Colorado, Nevada and Delaware the Tea-party backed Senate Republican nominees defeated "establishment" Republicans that had been expected to win their respective Senate races, but went on to lose in the general election to their Democratic opponents.[17] The three Senate nominees were seen by many in America and the media as either amateurs or too far-out there to be electable as their positions on certain aspects were viewed as extreme.[18] Several of the Tea Party-endorsed candidates won victories against established Republicans in primaries, such as Alaska, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Nevada, New York, South Carolina, and Utah.[19] [20]

There were allegations of Democratic candidates planting "fake" Tea Party candidates in Florida,[51] [52] Michigan,[53] New Jersey,[54] and Pennsylvania.[55]

2012 election

For the 2012 election, four of the 16 Tea Party candidates won a seat on the Senate, and Tea Party Caucus founder Michele Bachmann was re-elected to the House.[56] The media, such as ABC and Bloomberg, commented that Tea Party candidates had less success in 2012 than in 2010.[57] [58]

In February 2011, the Tea Party Patriots organized and hosted the American Policy Summit in Phoenix, Arizona. The 1,600 attendees were polled regarding their preference for a 2012 presidential candidate. Herman Cain, the first of the 2012 candidates to form a presidential exploratory committee, won the poll with 22%. Runners up were Tim Pawlenty (16%), Ron Paul (15%) and Sarah Palin (10%). Ron Paul won the Summit's online poll.[59]

In September 2011, CNN and Tea Party Express co-hosted a Republican primary debate among presidential candidates that featured questions from various Tea Party groups.[60]

2014 election

The Washington Post said in July 2012 that the Tea Party "is no longer the rising tsunami it appeared to be in 2010. Largely gone are the disorderly rallies, colonial-era costumes and fixations on fringe issues, such as the provenance of the president's birth certificate. Instead, the movement has retooled into a loosely organized network of field operations that, as in Texas, pushes Republicans toward more strident conservative positions and candidates, while supplying ground troops across the country for candidates and big-money conservative groups, such as the Club for Growth and Americans for Prosperity."[96]

Tea Party members now tell stories of mailing literature from their laundry rooms, manning phone banks, knocking on doors,[96] and driving over 34,000 miles in their cars to build support for legislation.[77] The Tea Party Patriots now offer free, on-demand, online grassroots training programs.[97] The Tea Party has partnered with seemingly unlikely groups, such as the NAACP and the Sierra Club.[76]

In the 2014 elections in Texas, the Tea Party made large gains, with numerous Tea Party favorites being elected into office, like Dan Patrick as lieutenant governor,[98] [99] Ken Paxton as attorney general,[98] [100] in addition to numerous other candidates.[100]

2015 elections

In the 2015 Kentucky gubernatorial election, Matt Bevin, a Tea Party favorite who challenged Mitch McConnell in the Republican primary in the 2014 Kentucky Senate election,[101] won with over 52% of the vote, despite fears that he was too extreme for the state.[102] [103] [104] Bevin is the second Republican in 44 years to be Governor of Kentucky.[102] However, four years later, Bevin went on to lose against Andy Beshear, in what was considered an upset.

2016 presidential election

The 2016 Republican presidential primary featured three U.S. Senators, Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, whose elections to the U.S. Senate were broadly attributed to Tea Party movement support. The ultimate winner of the Republican presidential primary, Donald Trump, praised the U.S. Tea Party movement throughout his 2016 campaign.[105] In August 2015, Trump told a Tea Party gathering in Nashville that "The tea party people are incredible people. These are people who work hard and love the country and they get beat up all the time by the media."[105] In a January 2016 CNN poll at the beginning of the 2016 Republican primary, Trump led all Republican candidates modestly among self-identified Tea Party voters with 37 percent supporting Trump and 34 percent supporting Ted Cruz.[106]

Ground game and Get Out The Vote (GOTV) efforts

Tea Party ground game/GOTV before 2012

Tea Party activists nationwide made a mass pilgrimage to the Bay State to support Scott Brown's unlikely campaign and ultimate win over Democrat Martha Coakley.[107] Democrats have said as late as September 2010 that the Tea Party could not match their ground game and was mostly hype. The Democrats have the advantage in better organization, an older volunteer organization and personal connections between volunteers and voters.[108]

On November 2, 2010, Fox News reported that the Democrats did not dispute expectations that they would lose the House, and that their vaunted campaign operation faced a less polished ground game infused with the energy of the new Tea Party.[109] The Tea Party helped deliver to Democrats what President Obama called a "shellacking" in the mid-term elections.[110] On November 10, 2010, FreedomWorks announced the national rollout of "FreedomConnect", which they touted as a "grassroots action center that will revolutionize the ways in which FreedomWorks members, 9/12ers and tea party groups across the country communicate and organize in 2011 and beyond".[111]

Challenge of the ground game for the Tea Party in the 2012 election cycle

The ground game was considered to be a major challenge for Tea Party candidates in several important contests in 2012, including Wisconsin's recall election of Gov. Scott Walker[112] [113] and the Texas GOP Senate primary race between "establishment" candidate Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and Tea Party favorite Ted Cruz.[114]

Early in the election cycle, Democratic allies had expressed confidence in the strength of their own ground game. In September 2011, Teamsters President Jimmy Hoffa delivering a speech to introduce President Obama to the gathered crowd, said "We got to keep an eye on the battle that we face: The war on workers. And you see it everywhere, it is the Tea Party.... We're going to win that war.... President Obama, this is your army.... We are ready to march. Let's take these sons of bitches out and give America back to an America where we belong."[115] Similarly, Organized Labor in Wisconsin hoped its ground game would give it the edge.[116] According to Karl Rove, Democratic Party Chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz also boasted on CNN in May that the Wisconsin recall would be the "dry run we need of our massive, significant dynamic grass-roots presidential campaign".[117]

When challenging GOP "establishment" opponents, the Tea Party faced opposing ground games of various size and sophistication. In Texas, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst hired "ground game expert" Kevin Lindley, who had run Gov. Rick Perry's campaigns,[118] while in Indiana Richard Lugar no longer lived in the state and developed a reputation for being out of touch with voters there.[119]

Further reading

Notes and References

  1. News: Tea-ing Up the Constitution . The New York Times . March 13, 2010 . Liptak . Mark . Washington, D.C. . October 31, 2010 . It is, of course, hard to say anything definitive about the Tea Party movement, a loose confederation of groups with no central leadership. But if there is a central theme to its understanding of the Constitution, it is that the nation's founders knew what they were doing and that their work must be protected..
  2. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/165469-gallup-tea-partys-top-concerns-are-debt-size-of-government/ Gallup: Tea Party's top concerns are debt, size of government
  3. Somashekhar, Sandhya (September 12, 2010). Tea Party DC March: "Tea party activists march on Capitol Hill". The Washington Post. Retrieved November 5, 2011.
  4. Do Political Protests Matter? Evidence from the Tea Party Movement. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. November 1, 2013. 0033-5533. 1633–85. 128. 4. 10.1093/qje/qjt021. en. Andreas. Madestam. Daniel. Shoag. Stan. Veuger. David. Yanagizawa-Drott. 10419/280507. free.
  5. News: The Movement: The Rise of Tea Party Activism . Ben . McGrath . The New Yorker . February 1, 2010 . March 30, 2010 .
  6. https://www.cnbc.com/id/29471026 Rick Santelli: I Want to Set the Record Straight
  7. News: February 23, 2009 . CNBC: Rick Santelli goes off . Chicago Tribune . March 2, 2009 . https://web.archive.org/web/20090316153711/http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-santelli-cnbc-video,0,4962596.htmlstory . March 16, 2009 . dead .
  8. Web site: Answer Desk: Housing relief backlash – Answer Desk . https://web.archive.org/web/20160127093900/http://www.nbcnews.com/id/29306760 . dead . January 27, 2016 . NBC News . February 23, 2009 . April 27, 2010.
  9. Book: Fang, Lee . The Machine: A Field Guide to the Resurgent Right . 27 . 2013 . 978-1-59558-639-1 . .
  10. Web site: Tea Party: Palin's Pet, Or Is There More To It Underneath. https://web.archive.org/web/20140415112820/http://www.usmoneytalk.com/finance/tea-party-palins-pet-or-is-there-more-to-it-underneath-910/. dead. April 15, 2014. April 15, 2014. November 11, 2016.
  11. http://www.michaelpatrickleahy.com/teapartyfounders.html "The founding Mothers and Fathers of the Tea Party movement," by Michael Patrick Leahy
  12. http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/03/04/opinion/main4843055.shtml A Growing "Tea Party" Movement?
  13. Tam Cho, Wendy K., James G. Gimpel, and Daron R. Shaw. "The Tea Party Movement and the Geography of Collective Action." Quarterly Journal of Political Science 7.2 (2012): 105–33.
  14. Kate Zernike, "Tea Party Set to Win Enough Races for Wide Influence" The New York Times, October 14, 2010
  15. Jonathan Weisman, "GOP in Lead in Final Lap" The Wall Street Journal, October 20, 2010
  16. Web site: Just 32% of Tea Party candidates win – First Read . Alexandra Moe . . November 3, 2010 . April 29, 2013.
  17. http://www.ou.edu/carlalbertcenter/extensions/summer2011/Jacobson.pdf Barack Obama, the Tea Party, and the 2010 Midterm Elections
  18. Web site: E. Thomas McClanahan . Commentary: Todd Akin answered Claire McCakill's prayers | Guest columns | Fort Worth, Arling . Fort Worth Star-Telegram . September 1, 2012 . November 8, 2012.
  19. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/09/14/us/politics/14memo.html?_r=1& G.O.P. Braces for More Discontent in Primaries
  20. https://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=129862743 Stunning Primary Season Reaches A Stunning End
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  29. https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory?id=10862260 Scott, Thurmond in GOP Runoff in SC's 1st District
  30. Weigel, David Black Republican headed for congressional runoff in South Carolina, The Washington Post, June 9, 2010.
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  45. http://www.nydailynews.com/ny_local/2010/09/20/2010-09-20_huge_tax_break_fits_carl_to_a_tea_big_govt_foe_fights_for_14m_windfall.html "Tea Party-backed GOP governor hopeful Carl Paladino fighting for $1.4 million tax break"
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  48. http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_15737667#ixzz13DJzI5tF Buck defeats Norton in bruising GOP primary for Senate seat
  49. http://www.politicsdaily.com/2010/08/10/tea-party-pick-ken-buck-wins-colorado-republican-senate-primary/ Tea Party Pick Ken Buck Wins Colorado Republican Senate Primary
  50. Web site: Bennet beats Buck. Narrow U.S. Senate race comes down to just around 15,000 votes . The Denver Daily News . November 4, 2010 . August 1, 2011.
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  52. News: Evan . McMorris-Santoro . Tea Party Fakers? Dems Blamed For Co-Opting 'Tea Party' Label To Split Conservative Vote . October 11, 2010 . September 27, 2010 . TPMDC.
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  54. News: Geoff . Mulvihill . Dems Planted NJ Tea-Party House Candidate . October 11, 2010 . October 8, 2010 . Associated Press . dead . https://web.archive.org/web/20101012193240/http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20101008/ap_on_el_ho/us_plant_candidate . October 12, 2010 .
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  56. News: Tea Party Election Results: Conservative Movement Of 2010 Takes Pounding In 2012 . Ian Gray. huffingtonpost.com . November 7, 2012 . April 29, 2013.
  57. Web site: Tea Party Candidates Losing Steam in 2012 . ABC News . Elizabeth Hartfield. abcnews.go.com . June 27, 2012 . April 29, 2013.
  58. Web site: Has the Tea Party Lost Its Mojo? . https://web.archive.org/web/20121110073839/http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-07/has-the-tea-party-lost-its-mojo . dead . November 10, 2012 . Businessweek . Elizabeth Dwoskin . businessweek.com . November 7, 2012 . April 29, 2013.
  59. News: Herman Cain wins Tea Party presidential live straw poll at Phoenix summit . February 27, 2011 . Shannon . Travis . political ticker ... . CNN. March 15, 2011.
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  72. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505267_162-57546226/ted-cruz-sounds-off-on-hispanic-vote-after-historic-senate-win/ Ted Cruz sounds off on Hispanic vote after historic Senate win
  73. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/DC-Decoder/2012/0606/Did-tea-party-put-Scott-Walker-over-the-top-in-Wisconsin-recall Did tea party put Scott Walker over the top in Wisconsin recall?
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  75. http://nation.foxnews.com/scott-walker/2012/06/06/exit-poll-tea-party-key-walker-win Exit Poll: Tea Party Key to Walker Win.
  76. http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2012/0801/How-tea-party-and-its-unlikely-allies-nixed-Atlanta-s-transit-tax How tea party and its unlikely allies nixed Atlanta's transit tax
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