The Super Bowl Indicator is a spurious correlation that says that the stock market's performance in a given year can be predicted based on the outcome of the Super Bowl of that year. It was "discovered" by Leonard Koppett in 1978[1] when he realized that it had never been wrong, until that point. This pseudo-macroeconomic concept states that if a team from the American Football Conference (AFC) wins, then it will be a bear market (or down market), but if a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) or a team that was in the NFL before the NFL/AFL merger wins, it will be a bull market (up market).
As of January 2022, the predictor had been right 41 out of 55 games, a 75% success rate.[2] Without retrospective predictions, i.e. after its invention in 1978, it had been correct in 29 out of 43 games, a success rate of 67%.
| Year | Team | League | Conference | Market | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | Rams | NFL | NFC | |||
| 2001 | Ravens | exp | AFC | |||
| 2002 | Patriots | AFL | AFC | |||
| 2003 | Buccaneers | exp | NFC | |||
| 2004 | Patriots | AFL | AFC | |||
| 2005 | Patriots | AFL | AFC | |||
| 2006 | Steelers | NFL | AFC | |||
| 2007 | Colts | NFL | AFC | |||
| 2008 | Giants | NFL | NFC | |||
| 2009 | Steelers | NFL | AFC | |||
| 2010 | Saints | NFL | NFC | |||
| 2011 | Packers | NFL | NFC | |||
| 2012 | Giants | NFL | NFC | |||
| 2013 | Ravens | exp | AFC | |||
| 2014 | Seahawks | exp | NFC | |||
| 2015 | Patriots | exp | AFC | |||
| 2016 | Broncos | exp | AFC | |||
| 2017 | Patriots | exp | AFC | |||
| 2018 | Eagles | exp | NFC | |||
| 2019 | Patriots | exp | AFC | |||
| 2020 | Chiefs | exp | AFC | |||
| 2021 | Buccaneers | exp | NFC | |||
| 2022 | Rams | exp | NFC | |||
| 2023 | Chiefs | exp | AFC | |||
| 2024 | Chiefs | exp | AFC |