Sub-national opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election explained

This article collates polling conducted for various geographical regions, including polls of individual consituencies. Polling covering all of the UK or Great Britain are collated in the article Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election.

Northern Ireland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	DUP	Sinn Féin	Alliance	SDLP	UUP	TUV	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election^[1]	–	22.1%	27.0%	15.0%	11.1%	12.2%	6.2%	6.4%	4.9
	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph^[2]	3,859	21%	23%	18%	14%	13%	4%		2
	LucidTalk^[3]	Belfast Telegraph	3,634	21%	24%	17%	13%	12%	5%		3
	LucidTalk	Belfast Telegraph	3,316	20%	26%	15%	10%	13%	8%		6
	Social Market Research^[4]	Irish News–University of Liverpool	1,206	23.5%	31.1%	15.2%	8.1%	11.1%	4.8%	–	6.6
	Social Market Research^[5]	Institute of Irish Studies	1,074	25%	31%	15%	9%	11%	5%	5%	6
14 Jan – 7 Sep 2023	Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey	ARK	1,200	%	%	%	%	%	–
2019 general election	–	30.6%	22.8%	16.8%	14.9%	11.7%	N/A	3.2%	7.8

Scotland

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	SNP	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	30.0%	12.7%	35.3%	9.7%	3.8%	7.0%	1.6%	5.3
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,083	34%	15%	31%	9%	3%	6%	2%	3
	More in Common	N/A	1,008	30%	16%	35%	9%	2%	7%	1%	5
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,200	32%	11%	38%	7%	3%	8%	1%	6
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	-	31%	13%	35%	8%	3%	8%	2%	4
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,042	34%	14%	34%	7%	–	–	7%	Tie
	Survation	Ballot Box Scotland	1,022	31%	14%	37%	7%	3%	8%	1%	6
	YouGov	Sky News	1,059	29%	11%	35%	11%	5%	8%	1%	6
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,069	33%	15%	38%	7%	–	–	7%	5
	YouGov	N/A	1,146	31%	11%	34%	7%	6%	11%	1%	3
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,050	30%	14%	34%	9%	4%	7%	2%	4
	Opinium	N/A	1,017	34%	14%	35%	8%	4%	5%	1%	1
	Ipsos	STV News	1,136	36%	13%	36%	5%	3%	4%		Tie
	YouGov	N/A	1,068	30%	13%	34%	8%	6%	7%	2%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	29%	17%	39%	8%	3%	4%		10
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,067	33%	17%	37%	7%	–	–	5%	4
	Survation	True North	1,026	32%	17%	36%	9%	–	–	6%	4
	More in Common	N/A	1,016	30%	17%	35%	10%	3%	4%	1%	5
	Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
	YouGov	N/A	1,114	29%	12%	39%	8%	7%	4%	2%	10
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,078	31%	14%	38%	8%	4%	4%		7
	John Swinney is elected Leader of the Scottish National Party and First Minister of Scotland
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,080	33%	17%	37%	7%	–	–	4%	4
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,014	29%	16%	34%	8%	4%	6%		5
	Humza Yousaf announces his resignation as First Minister of Scotland.
	YouGov	N/A	1,043	33%	14%	34%	8%	4%	5%	2%	1
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,086	32%	16%	32%	9%	4%	5%		Tie
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	32%	17%	33%	8%	2%	5%		1
	YouGov	N/A	1,100	31%	14%	33%	7%	5%	7%	1%	2
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	34%	16%	34%	6%	4%	4%		Tie
	Survation	Quantum Communications	1,043	38%	15%	33%	8%	–	–	7%	5
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	33%	18%	34%	8%	2%	4%		1
	Ipsos	STV News	1,005	39%	14%	32%	6%	4%	–	5%	7
	Survation	True North	1,029	36%	16%	34%	8%	–	–	7%	2
	Norstat	The Sunday Times	1,007	33%	16%	36%	7%	–	–	8%	3
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,040	35%	17%	35%	9%	2%	2%	1%	Tie
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,054	34%	17%	36%	6%	3%	3%	0%	2
	Ipsos	N/A	990	40%	15%	30%	6%	3%	–	5%	10
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,092	32%	23%	32%	8%	2%	2%	1%	Tie
	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,200	32%	16%	38%	6%	4%	–	4%	6
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,018	35%	19%	35%	6%	–	–	4%	Tie
	YouGov	N/A	1,028	33%	20%	32%	5%	5%	2%	2%	1
	Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,095	34%	21%	32%	9%	2%	–	2%	4
	Opinium	Tony Blair Institute	1,004	37%	18%	28%	8%	4%	–	4%	9
	YouGov	The Times	1,103	38%	16%	27%	7%	6%	4%	2%	11
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	35%	15%	35%	8%	4%	–	3%	Tie
	Survation	True North	1,022	37%	17%	35%	6%	–	–	5%	2
	YouGov	The Times	1,086	36%	15%	32%	6%	6%	3%	2%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	37%	17%	34%	7%	2%	–	3%	3
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,030	35%	21%	32%	7%	2%	–	3%	3
	Survation	–	2,026	37%	17%	34%	9%	–	–	4%	3
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,007	34%	18%	34%	7%	–	–	7%	Tie
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,018	38%	17%	34%	7%	–	–	4%	4
	YouGov	Scottish Elections Study	1,200	33%	17%	36%	7%	4%	–	3%	3
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,466	37%	20%	28%	9%	3%	–	3%	9
	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,090	41%	16%	29%	6%	3%	–	4%	12
	Survation	True North	1,009	38%	18%	31%	9%	2%	–	4%	7
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,295	35%	18%	32%	9%	3%	–	3%	3
	YouGov	The Times	1,032	37%	17%	28%	8%	5%	2%	2%	9
	Survation	N/A	1,001	40%	17%	32%	7%	1%	–	3%	8
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	19%	31%	10%	2%	–	3%	5
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,009	39%	19%	33%	6%	–	–	4%	6
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,089	39%	19%	31%	5%	–	–	6%	8
	Humza Yousaf is elected leader of the Scottish National Party
	YouGov	Sky News	1,002	39%	16%	29%	6%	6%	3%	1%	10
	Survation	Diffley Partnership	1,037	40%	18%	32%	6%	2%	–	3%	8
	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,013	40%	16%	33%	6%	–	–	5%	7
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	39%	22%	29%	6%	2%	–	3%	10
	YouGov	The Times	1,017	38%	19%	29%	6%	4%	2%	2%	9
	Survation	N/A	1,034	43%	17%	30%	6%	–	–	3%	13
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,004	42%	17%	32%	6%	–	–	3%	10
	YouGov	Scottish Election Study	1,239	38%	16%	35%	6%	3%	–	3%	3
	Survation	N/A	TBA	42%	18%	29%	6%	–	–	0%	13
	YouGov	The Sunday Times	1,088	42%	15%	29%	6%	3%	3%	2%	13
	Survation	True North	1,002	43%	18%	29%	7%	–	–	2%	14
	Survation	Scotland in Union	1,025	44%	16%	31%	6%	–	–	1%	13
	Savanta	The Scotsman	1,048	43%	19%	30%	6%	–	–	2%	13
	YouGov	The Times	1,090	43%	14%	29%	6%	4%	3%	1%	14
	Ipsos MORI	STV News	1,045	51%	13%	25%	6%	3%	–	0%	26
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	41%	16%	31%	8%	2%	–	3%	10
	Panelbase	Alba Party	1,000+	42%	16%	30%	6%	2%	–	2%	12
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,017	45%	15%	30%	5%	–	–	4%	15
	YouGov	The Times	1,067	45%	12%	31%	7%	3%	1%	1%	14
	ComRes	The Scotsman	1,029	46%	15%	30%	8%	–	–	1%	16
	Survation	Scotland in Union	1,011	44%	15%	31%	6%	–	–	4%	13
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,133	44%	20%	23%	8%	–	–	5%	21
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,010	47%	19%	23%	8%	–	–	3%	24
	Savanta ComRes	The Scotsman	1,029	46%	18%	25%	8%	–	–	3%	21
	Ipsos	STV News	1,000	44%	19%	23%	10%	3%	–	2%	21
	YouGov	The Times	1,115	46%	19%	22%	6%	3%	1%	2%	24
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Scotland
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,009	42%	21%	24%	7%	–	–	5%	18
	BMG	The Herald	1,012	42%	19%	26%	6%	4%	–	2%	16
	Survation	Ballot Box Scotland	1,002	45%	19%	27%	6%	–	–	2%	18
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,128	44%	20%	24%	8%	2%	–	2%	20
	Opinium	Daily Record	1,328	48%	17%	22%	7%	3%	–	4%	26
	YouGov	The Times	1,060	48%	20%	18%	6%	3%	2%	2%	28
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,000~	48%	21%	20%	7%	–	–	4%	27
	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,001	48%	21%	21%	7%	–	–	4%	27
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	2,003	47%	23%	19%	7%	–	–	4%	24
	Opinium	Sky News	1,014	51%	21%	17%	5%	2%	–	3%	30
	Alex Cole-Hamilton becomes leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats^[6]
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,287	47%	25%	18%	6%	–	–	4%	22
	Airdrie and Shotts by-election
	Election to the Scottish Parliament^[7]
	YouGov	The Times	1,144	48%	22%	19%	5%	4%	1%	2%	26
	Survation	DC Thomson	1,008	48%	22%	20%	7%	1%	–	1%	26
	Opinium	Sky News	1,015	47%	25%	20%	6%	1%	–	1%	22
	BMG	The Herald	1,023	48%	20%	20%	7%	3%	–	1%	28
	Survation	Good Morning Britain	1,008	46%	22%	22%	8%	–	–	2%	24
	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,075	45%	22%	19%	7%	4%	–	3%	23
	Survation	DC Thomson	1,037	47%	21%	22%	8%	1%	–	1%	25
	YouGov	The Times	1,204	48%	24%	19%	4%	3%	1%	2%	24
	Opinium	Sky News	1,023	50%	24%	19%	4%	1%	–	1%	26
	Survation	The Courier	1,021	49%	21%	21%	8%	1%	–	0%	28
	YouGov	The Times	TBA	49%	24%	17%	4%	4%	1%	1%	25
	BMG	The Herald	1,021	47%	21%	19%	7%	3%	–	3%	26
	Survation	The Courier	1,452	49%	21%	21%	7%	1%	–	1%	28
	Opinium	Sky News	1,096	50%	23%	19%	5%	3%	–	1%	27
	YouGov	The Times	1,100	50%	23%	17%	5%	3%	1%	1%	27
	Anas Sarwar is elected leader of Scottish Labour^[8]
	Survation	Daily Record	1,011	48%	23%	21%	6%	–	–	2%	25
	Survation	Scot Goes Pop	1,020	48%	19%	23%	7%	–	–	3%	25
	Survation	N/A	1,009	51%	20%	21%	6%	3%	–	–	30
	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,020	50%	21%	20%	5%	2%	–	–	29
	YouGov	The Times	1,089	53%	19%	17%	4%	3%	3%	1%	34
	Survation	N/A	1,059	52%	18%	20%	8%	–	–	2%	32
	JL Partners	Politico	1,016	56%	18%	15%	7%	3%	–	0%	38
	Survation	N/A	1,018	51%	20%	21%	6%	–	–	3%	30
	YouGov	The Times	1,142	54%	20%	16%	5%	2%	2%	0%	34
	Douglas Ross becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives^[9]
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,026	53%	21%	19%	6%	–	–	2%	32
	Panelbase	Scot Goes Pop	1,022	51%	21%	19%	6%	2%	–	1%	30
	Panelbase	Wings Over Scotland	1,086	50%	26%	17%	5%	2%	–	1%	24
	YouGov	N/A	1,095	51%	25%	15%	6%	2%	0%	1%	26
	Panelbase	The Sunday Times	1,023	48%	27%	16%	5%	3%	–	–	21
	Jackson Carlaw becomes leader of the Scottish Conservatives^[10]
2019 general election	–	45.0%	25.1%	18.6%	9.5%	1.0%	0.5%	0.3%	19.9

Wales

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	Plaid Cymru	Lib. Dems	Ref.	Green	Others	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election^[11]	–	37.0%	18.2%	14.8%	6.5%	16.9%	4.7%	1.9%	18.8
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,072	40%	16%	14%	7%	16%	5%	2%	24
	More in Common	N/A	848	42%	22%	9%	4%	14%	5%	4%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	930	46%	15%	10%	7%	17%	4%	1%	29
	Savanta	N/A	1,026	49%	19%	12%	5%	12%	3%	-	30
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	960	45%	18%	11%	5%	18%	4%	0%	27
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,066	45%	18%	12%	5%	13%	4%	1%	27
	More in Common	N/A	805	45%	21%	13%	4%	12%	3%	1%	24
	Rishi Sunak announces that a general election will be held on 4 July 2024
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	900	43%	19%	14%	3%	15%	6%	1%	24
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	840	40%	18%	14%	6%	18%	4%	0%	22
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	878	49%	16%	10%	5%	15%	5%	1%	33
	Vaughan Gething becomes First Minister of Wales^[12]
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	874	45%	22%	10%	5%	13%	5%	1%	23
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	48%	20%	10%	4%	12%	4%	1%	28
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	47%	22%	11%	6%	10%	2%	0%	25
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,004	42%	20%	15%	7%	12%	3%	1%	22
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	44%	24%	13%	4%	9%	5%	1%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	959	46%	26%	10%	3%	10%	4%	0%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,172	44%	22%	10%	9%	7%	6%	1%	22
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,051	50%	19%	12%	5%	8%	5%	2%	31
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,068	41%	24%	13%	7%	11%	4%	0%	17
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	46%	24%	10%	7%	10%	3%	1%	22
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	43%	22%	10%	7%	12%	4%	1%	21
	Rhun ap Iorwerth becomes leader of Plaid Cymru^[13]
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,064	49%	19%	10%	8%	9%	4%	1%	30
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,058	43%	23%	11%	8%	9%	4%	1%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,251	44%	24%	12%	7%	9%	4%	0%	20
	YouGov	WalesOnline	1,083	53%	19%	12%	4%	8%	3%	1%	34
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,081	49%	20%	14%	5%	9%	3%	1%	29
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,042	51%	18%	13%	4%	8%	4%	2%	33
	Survation	38 Degrees	6,012	51%	24%	13%	6%	–	–	6%	27
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,014	46%	23%	15%	5%	5%	3%	3%	23
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,020	41%	26%	16%	7%	4%	4%	2%	15
5 May 2022	Local elections held in Wales^[14]
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,086	41%	26%	13%	7%	6%	4%	3%	15
	YouGov	Barn Cymru	1,009	41%	26%	13%	3%	7%	6%	3%	15
	YouGov	?	?	39%	29%	17%	3%	5%	–	7%	10
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	31%	15%	4%	6%	5%	2%	6
	Election to the Senedd^[15]
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,071	37%	36%	14%	3%	4%	3%	3%	1
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,142	37%	33%	18%	2%	3%	4%	3%	4
	Opinium	Sky News	2,005	42%	33%	14%	3%	–	3%		9
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,174	35%	35%	17%	4%	2%	3%	3%	data-sort-value="0"	Tie
	Andrew RT Davies becomes leader of the Welsh Conservatives^[16]
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,018	36%	33%	17%	3%	5%	4%	2%	3
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,013	43%	32%	13%	3%	5%	3%	2%	11
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,110	41%	33%	15%	2%	4%	3%	2%	8
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,021	39%	35%	15%	5%	2%	3%	1%	4
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,008	34%	46%	11%	4%	3%	2%	0%	12
	YouGov	ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University	1,037	36%	41%	13%	5%	3%	2%	1%	5
2019 general election	–	40.9%	36.1%	9.9%	6.0%	5.4%	1.0%	0.7%	4.8

English mayoral regions

Most of the following polling are the results of secondary questions on Westminster voting intention from polls primarily for the May 2024 United Kingdom mayorality elections.

London

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	43.1%	20.4%	11.1%	8.7%	10.1%	6.6%	22.7
	Savanta	Centre for London	1,579	49%	19%	10%	6%	11%	5%	30
	Savanta	Mile End Institute	1,022	55%	22%	10%	5%	8%	1%	33
	Elections to the Mayoralty and London Assembly
	Savanta	Centre for London	1,532	53%	23%	13%	4%	8%	0%	30
	YouGov	N/A	1,192	54%	17%	9%	9%	9%	2%	37
	YouGov	N/A	1,157	55%	16%	8%	9%	9%	3%	39
	Savanta	Mile End Institute	1,034	52%	27%	10%	4%	6%	1%	25
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	51%	23%	13%	7%	5%	0%	28
	Survation	ITV	1,019	52%	21%	11%	6%	9%	1%	31
	YouGov	QMUL	1,113	52%	17%	10%	10%	10%	1%	35
	Lord Ashcroft	Evening Standard	2,750	51%	23%	13%	6%	6%	1%	28
	YouGov	QMUL	1,066	55%	20%	9%	9%	4%	2%	35
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	47%	27%	17%	4%	4%	1%	20
	By-election in Uxbridge and South Ruislip
	Survation	N/A	1,050	53%	23%	14%	4%	3%		30
	YouGov	N/A	1,051	58%	18%	9%	7%	6%	1%	40
	Survation	38 Degrees	6,012	59%	22%	13%	–	–	6%	37
	Local elections in London
	YouGov	Queen Mary University of London	1,114	56%	24%	8%	8%	2%	1%	32
	YouGov	N/A	1,166	55%	23%	9%	7%	3%	3%	32
	YouGov	N/A	1,115	51%	23%	11%	9%	4%	2%	28
	Old Bexley and Sidcup by-election
	Elections to the Mayoralty and London Assembly^[17]
	Panelbase	N/A	1,002	47%	32%	12%	6%	–	4%	15
	YouGov	N/A	1,141	51%	33%	7%	7%	1%	1%	18
	Opinium	N/A	1,005	47%	32%	11%	6%	0%		15
	Opinium	N/A	1,093	49%	33%	9%	6%	0%		16
	YouGov	Queen Mary University of London	1,192	50%	31%	8%	7%	2%	2%	19
	Opinium	N/A	1,100	49%	34%	9%	6%	0%		15
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	48%	27%	14%	8%	2%	3%	21
	YouGov	Queen Mary University of London	1,192	55%	30%	7%	5%	3%	1%	25
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	2,000	53%	26%	12%	6%	–	3%	27
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	2,000	50%	29%	12%	6%	–	3%	21
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	2,500	48%	29%	14%	7%	–	2%	19
	YouGov	Queen Mary University of London	1,002	46%	34%	11%	7%	1%	1%	12
2019 general election	–	48.1%	32.0%	14.9%	3.1%	1.4%	0.5%	16.1

Tees Valley

The following polls related to the Tees Valley Combined Authority area, which comprises the seven constituencies of Darlington, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough and Thornaby East, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland, Redcar, Stockton North, and Stockton West.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Ref.	Lib. Dems	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	31.1%	42.5%	16.7%	3.4%	4.1%	2.2%	11.5
	2024 Tees Valley mayoral election
	Redfield and Wilton	N/A	900	26%	49%	15%	6%	4%	0%	23
	2019 general election		–	43.9%	40.2%	7.8%	4.2%	1.2%	2.7%	3.7

West Midlands county

The following polls relate to the West Midlands metropolitan county, as opposed to the statistical region.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Ref.	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	22.6%	38.8%	5.3%	17.3%	6.5%	9.6%	16.2
	2024 West Midlands mayoral election
	Savanta	The News Agents	1,018	23%	54%	9%	9%	5%	1%	31
	Redfield and Wilton	N/A	1,000	24%	52%	7%	12%	5%	1%	28
	2019 general election		–	44.4%	44.1%	6.1%	2.5%	2.3%	0.6%	0.2

Constituency polling

Bicester and Woodstock

Bicester and Woodstock was a new seat at the 2024 general election.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lib. Dems	Lab.	Green	Ref.	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	28.8%	38.7%	16.4%	4.8%	10.8%	9.9
6 Jun – 24 Jun 2024	WeThink	The Economist	458	30%	31%	31%	3%	3%	Tie
2019 general election	–	53.9%	26.6%	16.9%	2.4%	0.3%	27.3

Bristol Central

Bristol Central was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Green Party candidate was one of its co-leaders, Carla Denyer. The Labour Party candidate was the Shadow Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport, Thangam Debbonaire.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab.	Green	Con.	Ref.	Lib. Dems	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	32.6%	56.6%	4.6%	3.1%	2.7%	0.5%	20.0
We Think	The Green Party	400	40%	49%	6%	3%	3%	0%	9
2019 general election	–	58.5%	26.0%	14.3%	1.2%	–	0.2%	47.3

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen)

Caerfyrddin (Carmarthen) was a new seat at the 2024 general election, replacing Carmarthen East and Dinefwr and Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	PC	Lab.	Ref.	Lib. Dems	Ind. (Edwards)	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	19.4%	34.0%	24.1%	15.2%	3.2%	–	4.1%	9.9
2 Jan – 4 Feb 2024	Survation	Plaid Cymru	520	24%	30%	24%	4%	4%	10%	3%	6
2019 general election	–	39.2%	30.7%	25.1%	3.8%	1.3%	–	–	8.5

Chingford and Woodford Green

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Chingford and Woodford Green were changed. The Conservative Party's candidate was former party leader Iain Duncan Smith.Faiza Shaheen was the Labour Party candidate for the seat in 2019 and originally reselected to contest the seat again. However, she was deselected by Labour's NEC and replaced.^{[18] [19] [20] [21]} The below poll was conducted before Shaheen left the Labour Party and announced her candidacy as an Independent.^{[22] [23]}

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	35.6%	25.8%	2.6%	2.7%	33.2%	9.8
	Opinium	Greenpeace	525	42%	39%	6%	8%	5%	3
2019 general election	–	48.2%	45.3%	5.8%	0.4%	0.3%	2.9

Clacton

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Clacton were changed. The Reform UK candidate was the party's leader, Nigel Farage.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	27.9%	16.2%	4.4%	4.2%	46.2%	3.4%	18.3
10–19 June 2024	JL Partners	Friderichs Advisory Partners	502	21%	18%	6%	6%	48%	1%	27
11–13 June 2024	Survation	Arron Banks	506	27%	24%	2%	5%	42%	1%	15
Survation	Arron Banks	509	38%	30%	6%	–	18%	9%	8
27%			23%	6%	–	37%	8%	10
2019 general election	–	71.9%	15.6%	6.2%	2.9%	–	3.4%	56.3

Gillingham and Rainham

Gillingham and Rainham maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	28.2%	37.8%	5.5%	5.6%	21.4%	1.2%	9.6
	We Think	The Economist	376	23%	55%	5%	2%	15%	0%	32
2019 general election	–	61.3%	28.4%	5.4%	2.3%	–	2.6%	32.9

Godalming and Ash

Godalming and Ash was a new seat at the 2024 general election, mostly replacing South West Surrey. The Conservative Party's candidate was Chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt.^{[24] [25]}

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lib. Dems	Lab.	Ref.	Green	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	42.6%	41.0%	5.0%	8.8%	2.3%	0.4%	1.6
	Survation	38 Degrees	507	29%	35%	23%	8%	3%	2%	6
2019 general election	–	53.4%	34.1%	8.9%	–	1.6%	–	14.6

Hartlepool

Hartlepool maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	Ref.	Lib. Dems	Green	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	46.2%	21.9%	24.5%	1.6%	2.3%	3.4%	21.7
30 May 2023 – 9 Jun 2024	We Think	The Economist	448	58%	10%	23%	6%	2%	1%	32
2021 Hartlepool by-election	–	28.7%	51.9%	1.2%	1.2%	1.2%	17%	23.2
2019 general election	–	37.7%	28.9%	25.8%	4.1%	–	3.4%	5.4

Holborn and St Pancras

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Holborn and St Pancras were changed. The Labour Party candidate was the party's leader, Sir Keir Starmer.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Ind. (Feinstein)	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	48.9%	7.2%	5.8%	10.4%	6.1%	18.9%		30.0
	Survation	38 Degrees	317	54%	9%	9%	14%	5%	6%		40
2019 general election	–	66.0%	15.2%	12.2%	4.6%	1.8%	–	0.3%	50.8

Islington North

Islington North maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election. Jeremy Corbyn, the incumbent MP and former Leader of the Labour Party, stood as an independent candidate following his suspension from the party in 2020.^{[26] [27]}

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Lab.	Corbyn (Ind.)	Lib. Dems	Con.	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	34.4%	49.2%	3.4%	4.0%	5.4%	3.5%	0.4%	14.8
	Survation	Stats for Lefties	514	43%	29%	7%	6%	7%	6%	2%	14
2019 general election	–	64.3%		15.6%	10.2%	8.0%	1.4%	0.4%	48.7

Mid Bedfordshire

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Mid Bedfordshire were changed. The 2023 by-election was contested on the 2019 boundaries.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	34.1%	31.4%	8.2%	5.2%	17.3%	3.7%	2.7
2023 Mid Bedfordshire by-election	–	31.1%	34.1%	23.1%	1.8%	3.7%	6.7%	3.0
	Survation	Labour Together	559	34%	34%	16%	6%	6%	4%	Tie
2019 general election	–	60.5%	20.5%	12.5%	3.9%	–	2.6%	40.0

North Herefordshire

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of North Herefordshire were changed.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	31.5%	6.4%	2.9%	43.2%	16.0%	0.2%	11.7
	We Think	The Green Party	501	28%	15%	4%	39%	13%	–	11
2019 general election	–	62.5%	15.2%	13.5%	8.8%	–	–	47.3

Portsmouth North

Portsmouth North maintained its 2019 boundaries at the next election. The Conservative Party's candidate was Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House of Commons.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	33.0%	34.8%	7.3%	4.5%	20.4%	–	1.8
	Techne	Penny Mordaunt	1,000	39%	35%	7%	4%	15%	–	4
2019 general election	–	61.4%	27.0%	7.4%	2.8%	–	1.4%	34.4

Richmond and Northallerton

Richmond and Northallerton was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Conservative Party candidate was the party's leader and prime minister, Rishi Sunak.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	47.5%	22.4%	8.9%	4.2%	14.7%	2.3%	25.1
	Survation	38 Degrees	331	39%	28%	9%	4%	18%		11
2019 general election	–	63.3%	16.4%	12.5%	3.8%	–	3.9%	46.9

Waveney Valley

Waveney Valley was a new seat at the 2024 general election. The Green Party candidate was one of its co-leaders, Adrian Ramsay.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	30.3%	9.4%	2.5%	41.7%	15.8%	0.2%	11.4
	We Think	The Green Party	500	24%	17%	7%	37%	16%	–	13
2019 general election	–	62.2%	27.0%	9.2%	9.3%	–	0.7%	35.2

Wokingham

Between the 2019 and 2024 general elections the boundaries of Wokingham were changed.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lib. Dems	Lab.	Green	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	32.2%	47.7%	6.7%	3.6%	9.8%	15.5
	Opinium	Greenpeace	607	42%	22%	24%	8%	3%	18
2019 general election	–	55.5%	32.3%	9.9%	2.2%	0.1%	23.2

Wycombe

Wycombe maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	25.6%	35.9%	9.5%	4.9%	24%	10.3
	Opinium	Greenpeace	532	37%	33%	16%	8%	5%	4
2019 general election	–	43.1%	39.9%	11.3%	2.6%	3.1%	3.2

Ynys Môn

Ynys Môn maintained its 2019 boundaries at the 2024 general election.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	PC	Ref.	Lib. Dems	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
2024 general election	–	30.5%	23.4%	32.5%	9.9%	1.4%	2.5%	2
21 Dec 2023 – 5 Jan 2024	Survation	Plaid Cymru	507	26%	27%	39%	4%	1%	3%	12
2019 general election	–	35.5%	30.1%	28.5%	6.0%	–	–	5.4

Other polling

"Red wall"

See also: Red wall (British politics).

Polling firms published polls of the "red wall", which took respondents from a selection of constituencies gained by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election. Different pollsters used different sets of constituencies for their polling.

Deltapoll

Deltapoll published a poll of the 57 constituencies that the Conservatives gained from Labour and the Liberal Democrats without specifying any regions.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Deltapoll	The Mail on Sunday	612	33%	49%	8%	10%	16
	2019 general election		–	47.4%	37.3%	6.9%	8.4%	10.1

Focaldata

Focaldata published a poll of the 44 seats the Conservatives gained from Labour in northern England and the Midlands.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Focaldata	The Times	573	44%	45%	1%	3%	1
	2019 general election		–	47.8%	39.0%	4.8%	8.4%	8.8

JL Partners

JL Partners published polls of forty-five seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales, apart from Bridgend, Clwyd South, the Vale of Clwyd, Wrexham and Ynys Môn.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	JL Partners	Channel 4 News	508	28%	53%	7%	12%	25
	JL Partners	Channel 4 News	520	30%	56%	6%	8%	26
	JL Partners	Kekst CNC and Conservatives in Communication	538	34%	54%	7%	5%	20
	JL Partners	Channel 4 News	518	37%	48%	8%	7%	11
	JL Partners	Channel 4 News	–	45%	43%	6%	5%	2
	JL Partners	Channel 4 News	500	47%	43%	4%	6%	4
	JL Partners	Channel 4 News	499	41%	47%	3%	8%	6
2019 general election	–	47.7%	39.1%	4.8%	8.3%	8.6

Redfield Wilton Strategies

Redfield & Wilton Strategies published polls of 37 constituencies won by the Conservatives in 2019 that had been held by Labour in 2010, 2015 and 2017, as well as Burnley, Redcar and Vale of Clwyd

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Ref.	Lib. Dems	Green	PC	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	2024 general election		–	24.1%	40.7%	21.7%	4.7%	4.8%	1.9%	2.2%	16.6
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	TBC	22%	47%	16%	7%	5%	1%	1%	25
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	24%	44%	18%	6%	5%	1%	2%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,072	24%	48%	16%	5%	4%	1%	1%	24
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	25%	49%	14%	6%	4%	1%	2%	24
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,055	28%	48%	14%	4%	5%	1%	1%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	975	28%	48%	11%	7%	4%	1%	1%	20
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	26%	50%	11%	5%	6%	1%	1%	24
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	32%	48%	6%	7%	4%	1%	2%	16
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,250	31%	45%	10%	6%	6%	1%	1%	14
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	32%	48%	6%	7%	3%	2%	3%	16
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,060	28%	53%	7%	6%	4%	1%	1%	25
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,400	28%	49%	8%	8%	4%	2%	1%	21
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	48%	10%	6%	4%	2%	1%	18
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,150	27%	52%	9%	6%	4%	1%	2%	25
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,020	26%	53%	9%	6%	4%	1%	1%	27
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,200	28%	50%	8%	7%	4%	1%	2%	22
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,158	31%	48%	7%	7%	4%	1%	1%	17
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	29%	52%	7%	7%	4%	1%	0%	23
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	48%	6%	8%	5%	2%	1%	18
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	31%	47%	7%	7%	5%	1%	2%	16
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	49%	9%	6%	4%	1%	1%	19
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	32%	48%	8%	6%	4%	1%	2%	16
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	29%	51%	9%	6%	2%	1%	2%	22
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	27%	55%	10%	4%	3%	1%	1%	28
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	29%	52%	8%	5%	4%	1%	1%	23
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,200	27%	53%	9%	5%	4%	1%	1%	26
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,200	29%	51%	9%	5%	3%	1%	1%	22
	Redfield & Wilton	ITV Peston	1,500	30%	53%	5%	6%	3%	1%	1%	23
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	28%	53%	6%	5%	4%	2%	1%	25
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	28%	56%	5%	8%	2%	1%	1%	28
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	21%	61%	8%	5%	3%	1%	1%	40
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	23%	61%	3%	7%	4%	1%	1%	38
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	34%	49%	7%	5%	4%	0%	1%	15
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	31%	48%	7%	7%	5%	1%	1%	17
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	34%	47%	5%	8%	3%	2%	1%	13
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	33%	48%	6%	7%	5%	1%	3%	15
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	34%	45%	3%	10%	5%	1%	3%	11
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	32%	46%	7%	10%	4%	0%	1%	13
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	35%	46%	3%	8%	3%	1%	2%	11
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	36%	46%	6%	5%	4%	2%	2%	10
	2019 general election		–	46.7%	38.0%	6.5%	4.5%	1.4%	1.2%	1.7%	8.7

YouGov

YouGov published polls of all fifty seats the Conservative Party gained from the Labour Party across northern England, the Midlands and Wales.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	YouGov (MRP)	The Times	9,931	41%	40%	5%	14%	1
	YouGov	N/A	794	44%	38%	4%	14%	6
	2019 general election		–	47.3%	39.0%	4.7%	8.9%	8.3

"Blue wall"

See also: Blue wall (British politics).

Polling firms published polls of the "blue wall", which took respondents from constituencies held by the Conservatives but which might be gained by Labour or the Liberal Democrats. Different pollsters used different sets of constituencies for their polling.

JL Partners

JL Partners published a poll of the forty-five seats in southern England which the Conservatives won in 2019 with a majority of under 10,000 votes.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib Dems	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	JL Partners	Kekst CNC and Conservatives in Communication	521	34%	40%	20%	3%	3%	6
2019 general election	–	48.5%	26.6%	21.1%	1.7%	2.1%	21.9

More in Common

More in Common published a poll of the thirty-nine seats which the Conservatives won in 2019 and saw the largest total swing towards Labour and the Liberal Democrats in the 2017 and 2019 elections.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lib Dems	Lab.	Green	Ref.	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	More in Common	N/A	1,005	32%	20%	33%	5%	10%	1%	1
2019 general election	–	51%	25%	20%	2%	0%	2%	26

Opinium

Opinium published a poll of the forty-one constituencies held by the Conservatives since 2010, where Labour or the Liberal Democrats outperformed their national swing against the Conservatives in 2017 and 2019, with a majority of under 10,000.^[28]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Opinium	Greenpeace	1,000	43%	34%	14%	5%	4%	9
2019 general election	–	48.6%	30.7%	17.6%	1.6%	1.5%	17.9

Redfield Wilton Strategies

Redfield and Wilton Strategies published polls of the forty-two constituencies in southern England which voted Conservative in the last three general elections, where more than a quarter of adults have degrees, where more than 42.5% of voters are estimated to have voted to remain in the European Union in the 2016 referendum, and where the Conservative majority over Labour was under 10,000 or the Conservative majority over the Liberal Democrats was under 15,000, in the 2019 general election.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lib. Dems	Lab.	Green	Ref.	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	880	25%	23%	34%	5%	11%	1%	9
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,040	26%	20%	34%	6%	14%	0%	8
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,195	28%	19%	37%	5%	10%	1%	9
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	21%	37%	4%	7%	2%	7
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	30%	24%	31%	2%	11%	1%	1
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	800	29%	26%	30%	3%	11%	1%	1
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,050	30%	25%	34%	4%	6%	1%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	36%	25%	32%	3%	4%	1%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,086	31%	26%	33%	4%	6%	1%	2
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,274	32%	25%	33%	4%	5%	1%	1
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,400	33%	25%	32%	5%	5%	0%	1
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,150	31%	24%	35%	3%	6%	1%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,154	32%	23%	36%	5%	5%	0%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	29%	25%	36%	4%	5%	1%	7
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	31%	22%	38%	4%	5%	0%	7
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,328	30%	26%	34%	5%	5%	1%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	34%	22%	33%	3%	6%	2%	1
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,090	32%	23%	36%	2%	5%	1%	4
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,000	32%	24%	34%	5%	5%	1%	2
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,228	35%	20%	37%	5%	4%	0%	2
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	31%	21%	39%	4%	4%	0%	8
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,250	34%	23%	36%	3%	4%	1%	2
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,150	32%	18%	41%	5%	4%	1%	9
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,100	34%	17%	41%	4%	3%	2%	7
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,200	32%	19%	42%	4%	4%	0%	10
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,200	30%	21%	40%	3%	6%	1%	10
	Redfield & Wilton	ITV Peston	1,200	30%	21%	41%	4%	3%	1%	11
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,250	32%	23%	38%	2%	4%	0%	6
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,250	33%	16%	44%	2%	4%	1%	11
	Redfield & Wilton	N/A	1,500	28%	24%	41%	4%	3%	4%	13
2019 general election	–	49.7%	27.4%	20.6%	1.3%	-	0.9%	22.3

YouGov

YouGov specified the blue wall to be constituencies held by the Conservative Party in the South or East of England in the 2019 election, with a population which by majority voted to remain in the European Union and have a higher level of graduates than the country at large.^[29]

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lib. Dems	Lab.	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	YouGov	N/A	841	45%	15%	26%	11%	4%	19
	YouGov	N/A	1,141	44%	18%	24%	9%	6%	20
2019 general election	–	51.7%	24.0%	19.7%	2.4%	2.2%	27.7

Other geographical samples

England and Wales

Find Out Now conducted a poll of voters in England and Wales.

Date(s) conducted	Pollster	Client	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Others	Lead
				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"				data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Find Out Now	The Constitution Society	14,596	45%	36%	6%	1%	11%	9
2019 general election	–	46.6%	34.3%	12.1%	2.9%	4.1%	12.3

Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire

Survation conducted a poll of voters in Cornwall, Cumbria, Gwynedd, Norfolk, and North Yorkshire.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Survation	Woodrow Communications	1,012	38%	36%	10%	8%		2
	2019 general election		–	53.3%	25.8%	14.0%	2.2%	4.7	27.5

Coventry

Survation conducted a poll of voters in Coventry.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Lab.	Con.	Lib. Dems	Ref.	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Survation	Unite the Union	528	52%	27%	6%	5%	6%		25
	2019 general election		–	46.5%	40.5%	6.0%	4.0%	2.7%	0.3%	6

Most rural constituencies

Survation published multiple polls of the 100 most rural constituencies in England.

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	Survation	Country Land and Business Association	1,092	34%	37%	14%	4%	9%	2%	3
	Survation	Country Land and Business Association	1,017	41%	36%	13%	5%	4%	0%	5
	2019 general election		–	58.9%	19.3%	16.6%	3.5%	0.6%	1.2%	39.6

"Conservative Celtic Fringe"

YouGov produced a poll of seats in South West England that had elected a Conservative MP in every election since the 2015 general election and where a majority of voters were estimated to have voted to leave the European Union in the 2016 United Kingdom European Union membership referendum. They branded these seats the "Conservative Celtic Fringe".

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Ref.	Green	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	YouGov	N/A	813	38%	24%	22%	6%	8%	1%	14
	2019 general election		–	56.7%	19.2%	19.1%	0.1%	3.0%	1.9%	37.5

"Sea Wall"

YouGov conducted polls of voters in 108 coastal constituencies which they refer to as the "Sea Wall".

Dates conducted	Pollster	Client	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Sample size	Con.	Lab.	Lib. Dems	Green	Ref.	PC	Other	data-sort-type="number" rowspan="2"	Lead
			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"			data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"		data-sort-type="number" style="background:;"
	YouGov	Fabian Society/Channel 4	Not reported								20
	YouGov	Fabian Society	N/A	21%	52%	N/A	N/A	14%	N/A	N/A	31
	YouGov	Fabian Society	631	32%	38%	9%	21%				6
	2019 general election		–	51.2%	29.2%	11.4%	2.6%	2.0%	1.7%	1.7%	22.0

See also

• Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Leadership approval opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election
• Opinion polling for the 2019 United Kingdom general election
• Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–2020)
• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
• Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
• Opinion polling for the next Senedd election

Notes and References

1. News: Northern Ireland election results 2024 | Constituency map . BBC News . 5 July 2024 . 8 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240708074246/https://www.bbc.com/news/election/2024/uk/regions/N92000002 . live .
2. Web site: Alarm bells for DUP as General Election poll puts party 10 points behind result in 2019 . Belfast Telegraph . 28 June 2024 . 29 June 2024 . 29 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240629114532/https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/politics/alarm-bells-for-dup-as-general-election-poll-puts-party-10-points-behind-result-in-2019/a22664372.html . live .
3. Web site: Archived copy . 17 June 2024 . 17 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240617181844/https://x.com/LucidTalk/status/1802681887111999913 . live .
4. News: Sinn Féin on course for record performance in Westminster election . Manley . John . 2024-03-11 . . 2023-03-14 . 13 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240313010902/https://www.irishnews.com/news/northern-ireland/sinn-fein-on-course-for-record-performance-in-westminster-election-CPNA36GAZVH3VKW77E435GK6XA/ . live.
5. News: Sinn Féin on course to break Westminster record . Manley . John . 2023-11-13 . . 2023-11-13 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231113142200/https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2023/11/13/news/opinion_poll_sinn_fe_in_to_consolidate_position_as_north_s_biggest_party-3763225/ . 2023-11-13.
6. News: 20 August 2020. Alex Cole-Hamilton confirmed as new Lib Dem leader. BBC News. 21 August 2021. 20 August 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210820181932/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-58269259. live.
7. News: Scottish Parliament election 2021. 15 May 2021. BBC News. en-GB. 11 October 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211011204736/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c37d28xdn99t/scottish-parliament-election-2021. live.
8. News: 27 February 2021. Anas Sarwar elected as new leader of Scottish Labour Party. en-GB. Labour List. 8 March 2021. 22 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210522125311/https://labourlist.org/2021/02/anas-sarwar-elected-as-new-leader-of-scottish-labour-party/. live.
9. News: 5 August 2020. Douglas Ross confirmed as Scottish Conservative leader. en-GB. BBC News. 8 March 2021. 26 January 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220126145538/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53655975. live.
10. News: 14 February 2020. Scottish Conservatives: Jackson Carlaw succeeds Ruth Davidson as leader. en-GB. BBC News. 8 March 2021. 9 March 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220309210326/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-51458319. live.
11. News: Wales election results 2024 | Constituency map . BBC News . 5 July 2024 . 5 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240705074837/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2024/uk/regions/W92000004 . live .
12. News: 2024-03-19 . Vaughan Gething confirmed as Wales' new first minister . 2024-03-20 . BBC News . en-GB . 20 March 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240320232838/https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-68605899 . live .
13. News: Plaid Cymru: What we know about new leader Rhun ap Iorwerth. 16 June 2023. www.bbc.co.uk. 20 November 2023. 20 November 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231120175011/https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-politics-65833642. live.
14. News: 6 May 2022. Wales Local Elections 2022. en-GB. BBC News. 22 February 2023. 8 May 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220508034722/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/wales/results. live.
15. News: Welsh Parliament election 2021. 15 May 2021. BBC News. en-GB. 9 October 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20211009132408/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/cqwn14k92zwt/welsh-parliament-election-2021. live.
16. News: 24 January 2021. Andrew RT Davies returns as Welsh Conservatives leader. en-GB. BBC News. 15 May 2021. 22 May 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210522125302/https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-55781864. live.
17. News: 9 May 2021. London elections 2021. BBC News. 2 October 2021. 16 September 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210916100443/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c27kz1m3j9mt/london-elections-2021. live.
18. News: Sommerlad . Joe . 30 May 2024 . Jon Stewart calls rejection of UK candidate for liking one of his sketches 'dumbest thing since Boris Johnson's . The Independent . London . 30 May 2024 . 30 May 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240530120907/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/jon-stewart-faiza-shaheen-labour-b2553787.html . live .
19. News: 2024-05-30 . Labour candidate shocked after being blocked from standing as candidate . 2024-05-30 . BBC . 3 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240603001605/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-69075181 . live .
20. News: Stewart . Heather . 30 May 2024 . Blocked Labour candidate Faiza Shaheen to challenge deselection . The Guardian . London . 30 May 2024 . 6 July 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240706003600/https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/may/30/blocked-labour-candidate-faiza-shaheen-to-challenge-deselection . live .
21. News: Oborne . Peter . 30 May 2024 . Faiza Shaheen dropped by Labour for liking pro-BDS, Corbyn and Green Party posts . Middle East Eye . London . 30 May 2024 . 30 May 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240530172731/https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/faiza-shaheen-dropped-labour-liking-pro-bds-corbyn-and-green-party-posts . live .
22. News: 4 June 2024 . Faiza Shaheen resigns from Labour Party . BBC News . 4 June 2024 . 4 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240604205642/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c977d5jep6eo . live .
23. Web site: Shaheen . Faiza Shaheen on X . Faiza . X . 5 June 2024 . 5 June 2024 . 5 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240605170239/https://x.com/faizashaheen/status/1798369070657782177 . live .
24. Web site: Godalming and Ash Survey 2023 – Jeremy Hunt MP . Hunt . Jeremy . 2023 . Jeremy Hunt . 2024-03-04 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231210081227/https://www.jeremyhunt.org/godalming-and-ash-survey-2023 . 2023-12-10. Following the redrawing of the parliamentary boundaries by the Boundary Commission, I am the Conservative Candidate for the Godalming and Ash constituency at the next election..
25. Web site: Jeremy Hunt has given over £100,000 to local Tory party in bid to retain seat . Adu . Aletha . 2024-03-03 . . 2024-03-04 . 8 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240608220125/https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/mar/03/jeremy-hunt-personal-donations-local-conservative-association-godalming-ash-seat . live .
26. News: Mendonca . Susana . 2024-05-29 . Jeremy Corbyn starts bid to be elected as an independent London MP . 2024-06-23 . BBC News . en-GB . 24 June 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240624190149/https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/czvv41zvxngo . live .
27. News: Rkaina . Sam . Ross . Alex . 2024-05-24 . Jeremy Corbyn expelled from Labour Party after confirming he will stand as independent in general election . 2024-06-23 . The Independent . en . 26 May 2024 . https://web.archive.org/web/20240526195757/https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-islington-general-candidate-mp-b2550779.html . live .
28. News: The 'Blue Wall'. Akehurst. Steve. 21 October 2021. Strong Message Here. 21 October 2021. en-gb.
29. News: Conservative vote share down 8pts in 'Blue Wall', with party potentially losing up to 16 seats. English. Patrick. 30 July 2021. YouGov. 5 October 2021. en-gb. 30 July 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210730214216/https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2021/07/30/conservative-vote-share-down-8pts-blue-wall-party-. live.

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