2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin explained

Election Name:2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Country:Wisconsin
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2016 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Previous Year:2016
Next Election:2028 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
Next Year:2028
Election Date:November 8, 2022
Image1:Ron Johnson portrait 117th Congress (crop).jpg
Nominee1:Ron Johnson
Party1:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:1,337,185
Percentage1:50.41%
Nominee2:Mandela Barnes
Party2:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:1,310,467
Percentage2:49.41%
U.S. Senator
Before Election:Ron Johnson
Before Party:Republican Party (United States)
After Election:Ron Johnson
After Party:Republican Party (United States)
Turnout:56.7%

The 2022 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate from Wisconsin. The party primaries were held on August 9, 2022. Incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson won re-election to a third term, defeating Democratic lieutenant governor Mandela Barnes[1] by 26,718 votes — a one-point margin of victory.

In 2016, Johnson had pledged to serve only two terms in the Senate. He reversed this decision in 2022.[2] The race was one of the most competitive of the cycle, and it followed considerable Democratic success in recent statewide elections. In 2018, Democrats won every statewide contest on the ballot, including the election for the state's other Senate seat. In 2020, Democrat Joe Biden narrowly carried the state in the presidential election.[3]

Barnes led in most polls during the summer of 2022. In the final weeks prior to the election, Johnson took a lead of more than three points in the polling average. This was the closest of Johnson's three Senate victories.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Disqualified

Withdrawn

Declined

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

Eliminated in primary

Did not file

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Mandela
Barnes
Sarah
Godlewski
Alex
Lasry
Tom
Nelson
OtherUndecided
July 29, 2022Godlewski withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes
July 27, 2022Lasry withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes
July 25, 2022Nelson withdraws from the race and endorses Barnes
Impact Research (D)July 12–17, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%39%12%25%5%18%
Change Research (D)July 1–7, 2022560 (LV)± 4.6%40%12%16%6%1%22%
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022381 (LV)± 6.2%25%9%21%7%1%36%
Normington Petts (D) May 18–22, 2022700 (LV)± 3.7%34%18%31%5%12%
Marquette UniversityApril 19–24, 2022311 (LV)± 6.6%19%7%16%5%2%49%
Impact Research (D)March 16–23, 2022449 (LV)± 4.6%38%9%17%8%3%26%
Normington Petts (D) February 23–27, 2022600 (LV)± 4.0%35%7%27%7%24%
Marquette University February 22–27, 2022362 (LV)± 5.7%23%3%13%5%5%49%
Impact Research (D)December 8–16, 2021842 (LV)± 3.4%40%10%11%8%3%29%
Data for Progress (D)November 11–15, 2021524 (LV)± 4.0%39%5%16%6%5%29%
Normington Petts (D) November 2021– (LV)37%5%15%7%36%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)August 28–30, 2021698 (LV)± 3.7%37%7%5%8%3%38%
Normington Petts (D) August 2021– (LV)43%5%4%7%41%

Results

General election

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report[38] November 4, 2022
Inside Elections[39] April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] March 1, 2022
Politico[41] April 1, 2022
RCP[42] January 10, 2022
align=left Fox News[43] May 12, 2022
DDHQ[44] August 17, 2022
538[45] October 20, 2022
The Economist[46] November 1, 2022

Debates

2022 United States Senate general election in Wisconsin debates
DateHostModeratorLinkRepublicanDemocratic
Key:
Participant  Absent  Non-invitee  Invitee Withdrawn
Ron JohnsonMandela Barnes
1Oct. 7, 2022Wisconsin Broadcasters AssociationJill GeislerYoutube
2Oct. 13, 2022Marquette UniversityCharles Benson
Shannon Sims
C-SPAN

Polling

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Ron
Johnson (R)
Mandela
Barnes (D)
Undecided
Margin
RealClearPoliticsOctober 24 – November 5, 2022November 8, 202250.2%46.6%3.2%Johnson +3.6
FiveThirtyEightAugust 15 – November 8, 2022November 8, 202250.4%47.0%2.6%Johnson +3.4
270toWinNovember 3–7, 2022November 7, 202250.2%46.6%3.2%Johnson +3.6
Average50.3%46.7%3.0%Johnson +3.6
Graphical summary
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson (R)
Mandela
Barnes (D)
OtherUndecided
CiviqsNovember 4–7, 2022739 (LV)± 3.7%50%49%1%
Research Co.November 4–6, 2022450 (LV)± 4.6%51%45%4%
Data for Progress (D)November 2–5, 20221,504 (LV)± 2.0%53%47%
The Trafalgar Group (R)November 2–4, 20221,095 (LV)± 2.9%50%47%3%
Marquette UniversityOctober 24 – November 1, 2022802 (RV)± 4.6%48%45%5%1%
679 (LV)± 4.8%50%48%1%1%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D) October 27–31, 2022888 (LV)± 3.3%46%48%6%
Siena CollegeOctober 27–31, 2022655 (LV)± 4.8%47%45%2%6%
Fox NewsOctober 26–30, 20221,000 (RV)± 3.0%48%45%3%5%
Wick InsightsOctober 26–30, 20221,089 (LV)± 3.2%50%46%2%2%
Emerson CollegeOctober 27–29, 20221,000 (LV)± 3.0%50%46%2%3%
51%46%3%
Patriot PollingOctober 20–23, 2022801 (RV)52%43%5%
Data for Progress (D)October 14–22, 20221,376 (LV)± 3.0%51%46%2%
CNN/SSRSOctober 13–17, 2022905 (RV)± 4.2%45%48%5%1%
714 (LV)± 4.5%50%49%1%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)October 7–11, 2022874 (LV)± 3.3%47%48%5%
Marquette UniversityOctober 3–9, 2022801 (RV)± 4.3%47%47%5%2%
652 (LV)± 4.8%52%46%2%1%
YouGov/CBS NewsOctober 3–7, 20221,138 (RV)± 3.7%50%49%1%
Public Policy Polling (D)September 26–27, 2022574 (V)47%47%6%
Fox NewsSeptember 22–26, 20221,012 (RV)± 3.0%48%44%3%5%
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)September 18–25, 20221399 (LV)± 4.4%51%46%5%
Data for Progress (D)September 20–23, 2022999 (LV)± 3.0%50%48%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)September 15–19, 20221087 (LV)± 2.9%49%47%5%
Emerson CollegeSeptember 16–18, 2022860 (LV)± 3.27%48%44%3%6%
Big Data Poll (R)September 17–18, 2022852 (LV)± 3.4%49%46%
Siena CollegeSeptember 14–15, 2022651 (LV)± 4.5%47%48%2%4%
OnMessage Inc. (R)September 11–13, 2022800 (LV)49%45%6%
CiviqsSeptember 10–13, 2022780 (LV)± 3.7%49%48%1%2%
Marquette UniversitySeptember 6–11, 2022801 (RV)± 4.3%48%47%5%
632 (LV)± 4.7%49%48%3%
The Trafalgar Group (R)August 22–25, 20221,091 (LV)± 2.9%47%49%4%
Fox NewsAugust 12–16, 20221,006 (RV)± 3.0%46%50%1%4%
Marquette UniversityAugust 10–15, 2022811 (RV)± 4.2%44%51%1%4%
713 (LV)± 4.5%45%52%0%3%
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%44%46%1%8%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)September 8–11, 2021756 (LV)± 3.6%43%43%14%
Ron Johnson vs. Sarah Godlewski
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson (R)
Sarah
Godlewski (D)
OtherUndecided
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%43%45%2%10%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)September 8–11, 2021756 (LV)± 3.6%44%41%15%
Ron Johnson vs. Alex Lasry
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson (R)
Alex
Lasry (D)
OtherUndecided
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%45%42%2%11%
Clarity Campaign Labs (D)September 8–11, 2021756 (LV)± 3.6%45%41%14%
Ron Johnson vs. Tom Nelson
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Ron
Johnson (R)
Tom
Nelson (D)
OtherUndecided
Marquette UniversityJune 14–20, 2022803 (RV)± 4.3%43%44%2%11%
Change Research (D)March 25–27, 20211,723 (LV)± 2.6%44%48%5%

Results

By county

County[47] Ron Johnson
Republican
Mandela Barnes
Democratic
Write-inMarginTotal
votes
data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %data-sort-type=number data-sort-type=number %
Adams6,20262.753,64436.87380.382,55825.889,884
Ashland3,07444.003,90355.8790.13-829-11.876,986
Barron12,92864.397,12135.46300.155,80728.9220,079
Bayfield4,08243.995,18355.85150.16-1,101-11.869,280
Brown62,22154.6451,42145.152370.2110,8009.48113,879
Buffalo3,90763.862,20135.98100.161,70627.886,118
Burnett5,36265.422,83434.5800.002,52830.848,196
Calumet15,46661.999,44437.85410.166,02224.1424,951
Chippewa17,69461.3911,06938.40600.216,62522.9928,823
Clark8,18170.203,45129.61220.194,73040.5911,654
Columbia13,89950.7813,41048.99640.234891.7927,373
Crawford3,79754.333,17945.49130.196188.846,989
Dane68,22822.69231,81877.086820.23-163,590-54.40300,728
Dodge25,91466.8912,83033.1100.0013,08433.7738,744
Door8,68550.148,61149.71260.15740.4317,322
Douglas8,37344.8610,27055.02220.12-1,897-10.1618,665
Dunn10,54457.247,87642.7600.002,66814.4818,420
Eau Claire21,20844.3226,52955.441150.24-5,321-11.1247,852
Florence1,89875.3862024.6200.001,27850.752,518
Fond du Lac30,58465.6315,98234.29380.0814,60231.3346,604
Forest2,78566.901,37132.9370.171,41433.974,163
Grant11,39756.688,67143.12410.202,72613.5620,109
Green8,35047.779,09752.04330.19-747-4.2717,480
Green Lake6,06169.732,62630.2150.063,43539.528,692
Iowa5,08243.736,51456.05250.22-1,432-12.3211,621
Iron2,06463.221,19736.6640.1286726.553,265
Jackson4,70058.843,28841.1600.001,41217.687,988
Jefferson22,40258.0316,14141.81640.176,26116.2238,607
Juneau6,94464.623,78235.19200.193,16229.4210,746
Kenosha34,39352.1731,37147.591590.243,0224.5865,923
Kewaunee6,62766.803,27332.99200.203,35433.819,920
La Crosse24,41344.2130,69555.581150.21-6,282-11.3855,223
Lafayette3,77957.552,78742.4500.0099215.116,566
Langlade6,19068.722,81831.2800.003,37237.439,008
Lincoln8,54163.314,92036.47290.223,62126.8413,490
Manitowoc22,56162.8113,28837.00690.199,27325.8235,918
Marathon37,52760.9823,91238.851030.1713,61522.1261,542
Marinette12,67768.395,81631.38420.236,86137.0218,535
Marquette4,75364.642,58935.21110.152,16429.437,353
Menominee26421.5396278.4700.00-698-56.931,226
Milwaukee103,66629.78243,63870.007550.22-139,972-40.22348,059
Monroe10,80162.396,46137.32490.284,34025.0717,311
Oconto13,96171.475,52728.29470.248,43443.1719,535
Oneida11,86658.788,27941.01410.203,58717.7720,186
Outagamie47,80555.7637,92244.2400.009,88311.5385,727
Ozaukee30,20957.7721,95441.981300.258,25515.7952,293
Pepin2,12264.301,17735.6710.0394528.643,300
Pierce10,31357.187,70942.74150.082,60414.4418,037
Polk13,13264.227,31335.7720.015,81928.4620,447
Portage16,33948.6617,18651.19500.15-847-2.5233,575
Price4,58465.052,45934.8940.062,12530.157,047
Racine44,22154.1337,25245.602180.276,9698.5381,691
Richland3,82754.583,17345.25120.176549.337,012
Rock28,75844.2836,02455.471600.25-7,266-11.1964,942
Rusk4,32667.762,05632.2120.032,27035.566,384
Sauk14,28949.4314,61850.5700.00-329-1.1428,907
Sawyer4,94957.823,59742.03130.151,35215.808,559
Shawano12,41569.315,49530.6820.016,92038.6317,912
Sheboygan32,05859.8821,35039.881290.2410,70820.0053,537
St. Croix26,14359.3917,82740.50520.128,31618.8944,022
Taylor6,52775.402,13024.6000.004,39750.798,657
Trempealeau7,32259.754,92040.15130.112,40219.6012,255
Vernon6,95052.766,20647.11180.147445.6513,174
Vilas8,35063.374,80336.45240.183,54726.9213,177
Walworth27,99560.9517,82438.811120.2410,17122.1445,931
Washburn5,27763.163,07436.7940.052,20326.378,355
Washington52,40170.8421,56629.1600.0030,83541.6973,967
Waukesha140,15662.5583,40837.225090.2356,74825.33224,073
Waupaca15,52566.867,65332.96420.187,87233.9023,220
Waushara7,76568.503,56731.4730.034,19837.0411,335
Winnebago39,37252.9134,86046.841850.254,5126.0674,417
Wood20,00460.6312,92539.17640.197,07921.4632,993
Totals1,337,18550.411,310,46749.414,8250.1826,7181.012,652,477
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

By congressional district

Johnson won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[48]

DistrictJohnsonBarnesRepresentative
52%48%Bryan Steil
28%72%Mark Pocan
53%47%Ron Kind (117th Congress)
Derrick Van Orden (118th Congress)
23%77%Gwen Moore
63%37%Scott L. Fitzgerald
59%41%Glenn Grothman
61%39%Tom Tiffany
59%41%Mike Gallagher

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

External links

Official campaign websites

Notes and References

  1. News: Edelman . Adam . November 9, 2022 . Ron Johnson defeats Mandela Barnes in Wisconsin Senate race, NBC News projects . NBC News . NBC Universal . 9 November 2022.
  2. News: Source: U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson to run for reelection . wisn.com . January 7, 2022.
  3. Web site: Greenwood . Max . January 1, 2021 . Seven Senate Races to Watch in 2022 . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20210101120928/https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/530880-seven-senate-races-to-watch-in-2022 . January 1, 2021 . January 1, 2021 . . en.
  4. News: Source: U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson to run for reelection . wisn.com . January 7, 2022.
  5. Web site: Filing fec-1540283. www.fec.gov . October 4, 2021.
  6. Web site: October 13, 2021. Vian. Jourdan. Republican Brad Beyer joins race to represent Wisconsin in U.S. Senate. News8000.com.
  7. Web site: August 18, 2021. Democratic millennial leader joins Wisconsin U.S. Senate race. WSAW.
  8. Web site: Statement of Candidacy Withdrawal . May 31, 2022. May 31, 2022. John4Midwest.com.
  9. News: Schenek. Dan. Sorgi. Jay. March 17, 2017. Kenosha County Sheriff David Beth says he may run for U.S. Senate seat in 5 years. Radio 620 WTMJ. dead. March 21, 2017. https://web.archive.org/web/20170322015640/http://www.wtmj.com/news/kenosha-county-sheriff-david-beth-says-he-may-run-for-wisconsins-us-senate-seat. March 22, 2017.
  10. News: Stump. Scott. August 26, 2019. Congressman Sean Duffy reveals 9th child has 'holes in heart'. Today. Associated Press. January 25, 2021.
  11. News: Bauer . Scott. January 6, 2022. Duffy ignores Trump plea, won't run for Wisconsin governor. Star Tribune. Associated Press. live. January 7, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220106135405/https://www.startribune.com/duffy-ignores-trump-plea-wont-run-for-wisconsin-governor/600133172/ . January 6, 2022.
  12. Web site: Three-quarters of states will elect governors in the next 2 years. Here's a field guide.. 2020-12-16. POLITICO. December 16, 2020 . en.
  13. Web site: Marley . Patrick . Glauber . Bill . Beck . Molly . Rebecca Kleefisch announces her run for Wisconsin governor . www.jsonline.com . September 9, 2021.
  14. Web site: Vetterkind. Riley. November 5, 2020. Need more scares after Halloween? The next election in Wisconsin has already started. live. Wisconsin State Journal. en. https://web.archive.org/web/20201102022419/https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/need-more-scares-after-halloween-the-next-election-in-wisconsin-has-already-started/article_87d7b13c-016e-5760-8c35-8aebb33da18d.html . November 2, 2020 .
  15. News: Kelly Meyerhofer. July 18, 2019. Scott Walker takes new job, says he won't run for office in 2022. Wisconsin State Journal.
  16. News: Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to join crowded Senate Democratic primary . . July 20, 2021 . Merica . Dan . July 20, 2021 .
  17. News: September 17, 2021. Kou Lee, first Hmong candidate running for U.S. Senate in Wisconsin. SHB News. October 7, 2021. April 7, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220407181439/http://shrdo.com/kou-lee-first-hmong-candidate-running-for-u-s-senate-in-wisconsin/. dead.
  18. News: July 5, 2021 . Democratic field for US Senate seat grows to 8 . . . live . July 11, 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210711174811/https://www.nbc15.com/2021/07/05/democratic-field-us-senate-seat-grows-8/ . July 11, 2021.
  19. News: Choi. Joseph. August 17, 2021. Democratic activist Steven Olikara enters Wisconsin Senate race. The Hill. August 17, 2021.
  20. News: Bauer. Scott. August 17, 2021. Democratic millennial leader joins Wisconsin US Senate race. Associated Press. Madison, Wis.. live. August 20, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210817170528/https://apnews.com/article/joe-biden-wisconsin-senate-elections-3588915812b88314a250890098e2a16d. August 17, 2021.
  21. News: August 6, 2021. Wisconsin Emergency Management Administrator Announces U.S. Senate Run. WUWM. Associated Press. live. August 7, 2021. https://archive.today/20210807064006/https://www.wuwm.com/2021-08-06/wisconsin-emergency-management-administrator-announces-u-s-senate-run. August 7, 2021.
  22. News: Dahmer. David. July 21, 2021. Milwaukee Alderwoman Chantia Lewis announces candidacy for U.S. Senate. Madison365.
  23. Web site: Glauber. Bill. 'I'm very, very serious about this race': Wausau radiologist Gillian Battino makes bid for U.S. Senate. 2021-05-10. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. en-US.
  24. Web site: Glauber . Will . Gillian Battino drops Senate bid, run for Wisconsin state treasurer . www.jsonline.com . . February 25, 2022 . February 23, 2022.
  25. Web site: Greenwood. Max. April 14, 2021. Wisconsin state treasurer Sarah Godlewski launches Senate bid. April 14, 2021. The Hill. en.
  26. News: Glauber . Bill . Bice . Daniel . Sarah Godlewski withdraws from Wisconsin U.S. Senate Democratic primary, clearing path for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes . July 29, 2022 . Journal Sentinel . July 29, 2022.
  27. News: Chris Larson formally announces he's running for U.S. senate . Danbeck . Jackson . May 25, 2021 . May 27, 2021.
  28. News: August 3, 2021. State Sen. Chris Larson ends run for U.S. Senate, endorses Mandela Barnes. WTMJ-TV. live. August 3, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210803143820/https://www.tmj4.com/decision2020/state-sen-chris-larson-ends-run-for-u-s-senate-endorses-mandela-barnes. August 3, 2021.
  29. Web site: 'Mandela won this race': Alex Lasry drops out of Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Senate primary, endorses Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes .
  30. Web site: Alexander Lasry. October 19, 2011. whitehouse.gov.
  31. Web site: Glauber . Bill . Tom Nelson drops out of Wisconsin Democratic U.S. Senate primary, throws support to Mandela Barnes . 2022-07-25 . Journal Sentinel . en-US.
  32. Web site: Home Let's Talk About the REAL Issues. . 2022-06-09 . Jeff Rumbaugh . en.
  33. News: Tony Evers is running for reelection. Is he up for the fight?. The Cap Times. December 1, 2021. May 20, 2022.
  34. News: Hamer. Emily. July 11, 2021. Wisconsin AG Josh Kaul announces run for reelection. Wisconsin State Journal. July 11, 2021.
  35. Web site: Rep. Ron Kind announces retirement in boon to GOP's House hopes. POLITICO. August 10, 2021 .
  36. News: Langrehr. Jaymes. January 4, 2021. Rep. Mark Pocan says he won't run for Sen. Ron Johnson's seat in 2022. WISC-TV. January 4, 2021.
  37. Web site: FEC Wisconsin Senate Candidate financial totals . FEC . March 31, 2022 . en.
  38. Web site: 2022 Senate Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . January 14, 2021.
  39. Web site: Senate ratings . Inside Elections . January 18, 2021.
  40. Web site: 2022 Senate . Sabato's Crystal Ball . January 28, 2021.
  41. Web site: Wisconsin Senate Race 2022. April 1, 2022 . Politico.
  42. Web site: Battle for the Senate 2022. January 10, 2022 . RCP.
  43. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . Fox News . May 12, 2022 . May 12, 2022.
  44. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . DDHQ . July 20, 2022 . July 20, 2022.
  45. Web site: 2022 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . June 30, 2022 . June 30, 2022.
  46. News: Economist's 2022 Senate forecast . The Economist . September 7, 2022 . September 7, 2022.
  47. Web site: County by County Report - 2022 General Election - United States Senator . November 21, 2022 . Wisconsin Elections Commission .
  48. Results . docs.google.com .