Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election explained

This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election. The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

The states considered to be not strongly leaning in either direction are Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Virginia, with Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin considered to be tossups.^[1]

Forecasts

Elections analysts and political pundits issue probabilistic forecasts to give readers a sense of how probable various electoral outcomes are. These forecasts use a variety of factors to determine the likelihood of each candidate winning each state. Most election predictors use the following ratings:

"tossup": no advantage
"tilt" (used by some predictors): advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean"
"lean" or "leans": slight advantage
"likely": significant, but surmountable, advantage
"safe" or "solid": near-certain chance of victory

Below is a list of states considered by one or more forecast to be competitive; states that are deemed to be "safe" or "solid" by all forecasters are omitted for brevity.

State		PVI^[2]	data-sort-type="number"	2020 result	data-sort-type="number"	2020 margin^[3]	IE ^[4]	Cook ^[5]	CNalysis ^[6]	Sabato ^[7]	CNN ^[8]	RCP ^[9]	DDHQ ^[10]	538 ^[11]	Economist ^[12]
Alaska	3		data-sort-value="52.8"	52.8% R	data-sort-value="10.06"	10.06%
Arizona	11		data-sort-value="-49.4"	49.4% D	data-sort-value="-0.31"	0.31%
Colorado	10		data-sort-value="-55.4"	55.4% D	data-sort-value="-13.5"	13.50%
Florida	30		data-sort-value="51.2"	51.2% R	data-sort-value="3.36"	3.36%
Georgia	16		data-sort-value="-49.5"	49.5% D	data-sort-value="-0.24"	0.24%
Illinois	20		data-sort-value="-57.5"	57.5% D	data-sort-value="-16.99"	16.99%
Iowa	6		data-sort-value="53.1"	53.1% R	data-sort-value="8.20"	8.20%
Kansas	6		data-sort-value="56.4"	56.4% R	data-sort-value="14.63"	14.63%
Maine	2		data-sort-value="-53.1"	53.1% D	data-sort-value="-9.07"	9.07%
ME–01	1		data-sort-value="-60.1"	60.1% D	data-sort-value="-23.09"	23.09%
ME–02	1		data-sort-value="52.3"	52.3% R	data-sort-value="7.44"	7.44%
Michigan	15		data-sort-value="-50.6"	50.6% D	data-sort-value="-2.78"	2.78%
Minnesota	10		data-sort-value="-52.4"	52.4% D	data-sort-value="-7.11"	7.11%
Missouri	10		data-sort-value="56.8"	56.8% R	data-sort-value="15.39"	15.39%
Montana	4		data-sort-value="56.9"	56.9% R	data-sort-value="16.37"	16.37%
NE–02	1		data-sort-value="-52.0"	52.0% D	data-sort-value="-6.50"	6.50%
Nevada	6		data-sort-value="-50.1"	50.1% D	data-sort-value="-2.39"	2.39%
nowrap	New Hampshire	4		data-sort-value="-52.7"	52.7% D	data-sort-value="-7.35"	7.35%
New Jersey	14		data-sort-value="-57.3"	57.3% D	data-sort-value="-15.94"	15.94%
New Mexico	5		data-sort-value="-54.3"	54.3% D	data-sort-value="-10.79"	10.79%
North Carolina	16		data-sort-value="49.9"	49.9% R	data-sort-value="1.35%"	1.35%
Ohio	17		data-sort-value="53.3"	53.3% R	data-sort-value="8.03"	8.03%
Oregon	8		data-sort-value="-56.4"	56.4% D	data-sort-value="-16.08"	16.08%
Pennsylvania	19		data-sort-value="-50.0"	50.0% D	data-sort-value="-1.16"	1.16%
South Carolina	9		data-sort-value="55.1"	55.1% R	data-sort-value="11.68"	11.68%
Texas	40		data-sort-value="52.1"	52.1% R	data-sort-value="5.58"	5.58%
Virginia	13		data-sort-value="-54.1"	54.1% D	data-sort-value="-10.11"	10.11%
Wisconsin	10		data-sort-value="-49.5"	49.5% D	data-sort-value="-0.63"	0.63%
Overall<					--IE-->		D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups		D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups		D – 241 R – 235 62 tossups		D – 226 R – 219 93 tossups		D – 225 R – 219 94 tossups	D – 208 R – 219 111 tossups	D – 226 R – 235 77 tossups	D – 226 R – 246 66 tossups	D – 226 R – 251 61 tossups

Polling

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

Web site: Montanaro . Domenico . Harris has momentum, but the race is still tight. Here are the paths to the presidency . NPR . 2024-08-05 . 2024-08-06.
Web site: 2022 Cook PVI: State Map and List. Cook Political Report. December 15, 2017. July 12, 2022. July 13, 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220713122448/https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2022-partisan-voting-index/state-map-and-list. live.
Web site: Federal Elections 2020 . . July 2023.
Web site: Gonzales . Nathan . 2024 Presidential Ratings (May 8, 2024) . Inside Elections . May 26, 2024.
Web site: July 9, 2024. 2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings. Cook Political Report. July 9, 2024.
Web site: August 18, 2024. 2024 CNalysis Pres. Forecast. CNalysis. August 18, 2024. December 25, 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20231225012926/https://projects.cnalysis.com/23-24/president. live.
Web site: Kondik . Kyle . August 7, 2024 . Electoral College Rating Changes. . August 20, 2024.
Web site: August 18, 2024. Road to 270. .
Web site: 2024 RCP Electoral College Map RealClearPolling . August 11, 2024 . www.realclearpolling.com . en.
Web site: 2024 Presidential Forecast . Decision Desk HQ/The Hill . July 9, 2024.
Web site: Morris . G. Elliott . 2024 Election Forecast . FiveThirtyEight . July 19, 2024 . en . July 4, 2024.
News: Trump v Harris: The Economist's presidential election prediction model . . August 19, 2024.

Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 United States presidential election explained

Forecasts

Polling

Alabama

Alaska

Arizona

Arkansas

California

Colorado

Connecticut

Delaware

District of Columbia

Florida

Georgia

Hawaii

Idaho

Illinois

Indiana

Iowa

Kansas

Kentucky

Louisiana

Maine

Maryland

Massachusetts

Michigan

Minnesota

Mississippi

Missouri

Montana

Nebraska

Nevada

New Hampshire

New Jersey

New Mexico

New York

North Carolina

North Dakota

Ohio

Oklahoma

Oregon

Pennsylvania

Rhode Island

South Carolina

South Dakota

Tennessee

Texas

Utah

Vermont

Virginia

Washington

West Virginia

Wisconsin

Wyoming

See also

Notes

Notes and References