Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries explained

This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

Background

The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 states or territories.^[1]

Each subsequent debate raised the polling threshold for qualification. For the second debate, candidates needed to poll above 3% in August or September in two national polls; otherwise, one national poll plus two state polls in two separate early primary states also qualify. The donor threshold was also raised for the second debate to 50,000 individuals.^[2] For the third and fourth debates, the threshold was raised to above 4% in one national poll and one early primary state poll, as well as 70,000 unique donors.^[3]

Individuals who have been included in statewide Republican primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Greg Abbott, Tucker Carlson, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Chris Sununu, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Glenn Youngkin.

Primary and caucus calendar

Delegates!Primaries/caucuses
January 15	40		Iowa caucus
January 23	22		New Hampshire primary
February 6	colspan=2	-	Nevada primary
February 8	35	26 9	Nevada caucus Virgin Islands caucus
February 24	50		South Carolina primary
February 27	55		Michigan primary
March 2	86	32 54	Idaho caucus Missouri caucus
March 3	19		District of Columbia primary
March 4	29		North Dakota caucus
March 5 (Super Tuesday)	874	49 28 9 40 169 37 20 40 39 75 43 58 162 40 17 48	Alabama primary Alaska primary American Samoa caucus Arkansas primary California primary Colorado primary Maine primary Massachusetts primary Minnesota primary North Carolina primary Oklahoma primary Tennessee primary Texas primary Utah primary Vermont primary Virginia primary
March 9	9		Guam caucus
March 10	32	9 23	Northern Marianas caucus Puerto Rico primary
March 12	160	59 19 39 43	Georgia primary Hawaii caucus Mississippi primary Washington primary
March 19	349	43 125 64 39 78	Arizona primary Florida primary Illinois primary Kansas primary Ohio primary
March 23	46		Louisiana primary
April 2	195	28 16 91 19 41	Connecticut primary Delaware primary New York primary Rhode Island primary Wisconsin primary
April 18–20	29		Wyoming caucus
April 23	67		Pennsylvania primary
May 7	58		Indiana primary
May 14	104	37 36 31	Maryland primary Nebraska primary West Virginia primary
May 21	77	46 31	Kentucky caucus Oregon primary
June 4	131	31 49 22 29	Montana primary New Jersey primary New Mexico primary South Dakota primary

Aggregate polling summary

270toWin

States polled	Dates administered	Dates updated	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Other/ Undecided	Margin
Iowa^[4]	January 11 – 15, 2024	January 15, 2024	15.7%	18.5%	52.5%	13.3%	Trump +34.0
Massachusetts^[5]	February 7–8, 2024	February 15, 2024	–	29.3%	63.0%	7.7%	Trump +33.7
New Hampshire^[6]	January 22–23, 2024	January 23, 2024	7.3%	35.7%	56.5%	0.5%	Trump +20.8
South Carolina^[7]	February 16–20, 2024	February 21, 2024	–	34.6%	61.6%	3.8%	Trump +27.0
Wisconsin^[8]	February 7, 2024	February 15, 2024	–	22.5%	71.5%	6.0%	Trump +49.0

FiveThirtyEight

States polled	Dates administered	Dates updated	Nikki Haley	Other/ Undecided	Margin
Arizona^[9]	through February 4, 2024	February 15, 2024	21.0%	76.9%	2.1%	Trump +55.9
California^[10]	through February 4, 2024	February 10, 2024	18.9%	76.7%	4.4%	Trump +57.8
Florida^[11]	through February 4, 2024	February 10, 2024	14.1%	84.2%	1.7%	Trump +70.1
Georgia^[12]	through February 4, 2024	February 10, 2024	18.1%	79.0%	2.9%	Trump +60.9
Iowa^[13]	through January 14, 2024	January 15, 2024	18.7%	52.7%	28.6%	Trump +34.0
Massachusetts^[14]	through March 3, 2024	March 4, 2024	29.3%	66.6%	4.1%	Trump +37.3
Michigan^[15]	through February 24, 2024	February 25, 2024	21.8%	78.7%	–	Trump +56.9
New Hampshire^[16]	through January 22, 2024	January 23, 2024	36.3%	53.9%	9.8%	Trump +17.6
North Carolina^[17]	through February 4, 2024	February 15, 2024	22.1%	74.7%	4.2%	Trump +52.6
Ohio^[18]	through February 4, 2024	February 10, 2024	16.9%	81.9%	1.2%	Trump +56.4
Pennsylvania^[19]	through February 4, 2024	February 10, 2024	17.8%	78.5%	3.7%	Trump +51.3
South Carolina^[20]	through February 23, 2024	February 23, 2024	34.0%	61.6%	4.4%	Trump +27.6
Tennessee^[21]	through March 3, 2024	March 5, 2024	15.3%	84.4%	0.3%	Trump +69.1
Texas^[22]	through March 3, 2024	March 4, 2024	14.9%	79.4%	5.7%	Trump +64.5
Virginia^[23]	through March 3, 2024	March 4, 2024	17.4%	66.2%	16.4%	Trump +48.8
Wisconsin^[24]	through February 4, 2024	February 15, 2024	21.1%	70.9%	8.0%	Trump +49.8

RealClearPolitics

States polled	Dates administered	Dates updated	Ron DeSantis	Nikki Haley	Other/ Undecided	Margin
Iowa^[25]	January 5 – 14, 2024	January 15, 2024	15.7%	18.8%	52.5%	13.0%	Trump +33.7
Nevada^[26]	September 29, 2023 – January 8, 2024	January 19, 2024	10.5%	–	69.0%	20.5%	Trump +58.5
New Hampshire^[27]	January 16–22, 2024	January 23, 2024	8.0%	36.5%	55.8%	–	Trump +19.3
South Carolina^[28]	January 23, 2024 – February 10, 2024	February 15, 2024	–	30.5%	64.0%	5.5%	Trump +33.5

Iowa caucus

See main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024.

New Hampshire primary

See main article: 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024.

Nevada primary and caucus

See main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests. The 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary and caucus was held on February 6 and February 8, 2024, respectively.

South Carolina primary

See main article: 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary. The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary was held on February 24, 2024.

Michigan primary and caucus

See main article: 2024 Michigan Republican presidential nominating contests. The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus were held on February 27 and March 2, 2024, respectively.