Statewide opinion polling for the 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries explained

This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the Republican primaries for the 2024 United States presidential election. The persons named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.

Background

The Republican National Committee determined that candidates must qualify for the first primary debate by polling above 1% in three national polls since July 2023 – or in two national polls and one poll from two different early primary states (of which the polls must meet committee standards) – as well as attract donations from at least 40,000 individuals, with at least 200 from each of 20 states or territories.[1]

Each subsequent debate raised the polling threshold for qualification. For the second debate, candidates needed to poll above 3% in August or September in two national polls; otherwise, one national poll plus two state polls in two separate early primary states also qualify. The donor threshold was also raised for the second debate to 50,000 individuals.[2] For the third and fourth debates, the threshold was raised to above 4% in one national poll and one early primary state poll, as well as 70,000 unique donors.[3]

Individuals who have been included in statewide Republican primary polls but have either ruled out their candidacy or not expressed interest in running include Greg Abbott, Tucker Carlson, Liz Cheney, Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley, Kristi Noem, Mike Pompeo, Mitt Romney, Marco Rubio, Rick Scott, Chris Sununu, Donald Trump Jr., Ivanka Trump, and Glenn Youngkin.

Primary and caucus calendar

Delegates!Primaries/caucuses
January 1540Iowa caucus
January 2322New Hampshire primary
February 6colspan=2-Nevada primary
February 83526
9
Nevada caucus
Virgin Islands caucus
February 2450South Carolina primary
February 2755Michigan primary
March 28632
54
Idaho caucus
Missouri caucus
March 319District of Columbia primary
March 429North Dakota caucus
March 5
(Super Tuesday)
87449
28
9
40
169
37
20
40
39
75
43
58
162
40
17
48
Alabama primary
Alaska primary
American Samoa caucus
Arkansas primary
California primary
Colorado primary
Maine primary
Massachusetts primary
Minnesota primary
North Carolina primary
Oklahoma primary
Tennessee primary
Texas primary
Utah primary
Vermont primary
Virginia primary
March 99Guam caucus
March 10329
23
Northern Marianas caucus
Puerto Rico primary
March 1216059
19
39
43
Georgia primary
Hawaii caucus
Mississippi primary
Washington primary
March 1934943
125
64
39
78
Arizona primary
Florida primary
Illinois primary
Kansas primary
Ohio primary
March 2346Louisiana primary
April 219528
16
91
19
41
Connecticut primary
Delaware primary
New York primary
Rhode Island primary
Wisconsin primary
April 18–2029Wyoming caucus
April 2367Pennsylvania primary
May 758Indiana primary
May 1410437
36
31
Maryland primary
Nebraska primary
West Virginia primary
May 217746
31
Kentucky caucus
Oregon primary
June 413131
49
22
29
Montana primary
New Jersey primary
New Mexico primary
South Dakota primary

Aggregate polling summary

270toWin

States
polled
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
Margin
Iowa[4] January 11 – 15, 2024January 15, 202415.7%18.5%52.5%13.3%Trump +34.0
Massachusetts[5] February 7–8, 2024February 15, 202429.3%63.0%7.7%Trump +33.7
New Hampshire[6] January 22–23, 2024January 23, 20247.3%35.7%56.5%0.5%Trump +20.8
South Carolina[7] February 16–20, 2024February 21, 202434.6%61.6%3.8%Trump +27.0
Wisconsin[8] February 7, 2024February 15, 202422.5%71.5%6.0%Trump +49.0

FiveThirtyEight

States
polled
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Nikki
Haley
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
Margin
Arizona[9] through February 4, 2024February 15, 202421.0%76.9%2.1%Trump +55.9
California[10] through February 4, 2024February 10, 202418.9%76.7%4.4%Trump +57.8
Florida[11] through February 4, 2024February 10, 202414.1%84.2%1.7%Trump +70.1
Georgia[12] through February 4, 2024February 10, 202418.1%79.0%2.9%Trump +60.9
Iowa[13] through January 14, 2024January 15, 202418.7%52.7%28.6%Trump +34.0
Massachusetts[14] through March 3, 2024March 4, 202429.3%66.6%4.1%Trump +37.3
Michigan[15] through February 24, 2024February 25, 202421.8%78.7%Trump +56.9
New Hampshire[16] through January 22, 2024January 23, 202436.3%53.9%9.8%Trump +17.6
North Carolina[17] through February 4, 2024February 15, 202422.1%74.7%4.2%Trump +52.6
Ohio[18] through February 4, 2024February 10, 202416.9%81.9%1.2%Trump +56.4
Pennsylvania[19] through February 4, 2024February 10, 202417.8%78.5%3.7%Trump +51.3
South Carolina[20] through February 23, 2024February 23, 202434.0%61.6%4.4%Trump +27.6
Tennessee[21] through March 3, 2024March 5, 202415.3%84.4%0.3%Trump +69.1
Texas[22] through March 3, 2024March 4, 202414.9%79.4%5.7%Trump +64.5
Virginia[23] through March 3, 2024March 4, 202417.4%66.2%16.4%Trump +48.8
Wisconsin[24] through February 4, 2024February 15, 202421.1%70.9%8.0%Trump +49.8

RealClearPolitics

States
polled
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Ron
DeSantis
Nikki
Haley
Donald
Trump
Other/
Undecided
Margin
Iowa[25] January 5 – 14, 2024January 15, 202415.7%18.8%52.5%13.0%Trump +33.7
Nevada[26] September 29, 2023 – January 8, 2024January 19, 202410.5%69.0%20.5%Trump +58.5
New Hampshire[27] January 16–22, 2024January 23, 20248.0%36.5%55.8%Trump +19.3
South Carolina[28] January 23, 2024 – February 10, 2024February 15, 202430.5%64.0%5.5%Trump +33.5

Iowa caucus

See main article: 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses. The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses were held on January 15, 2024.

New Hampshire primary

See main article: 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary. The 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary was held on January 23, 2024.

Nevada primary and caucus

See main article: 2024 Nevada Republican presidential nominating contests. The 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary and caucus was held on February 6 and February 8, 2024, respectively.

South Carolina primary

See main article: 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary. The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary was held on February 24, 2024.

Michigan primary and caucus

See main article: 2024 Michigan Republican presidential nominating contests. The 2024 Michigan Republican presidential primary and caucus were held on February 27 and March 2, 2024, respectively.

Missouri caucus

See main article: 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses. The 2024 Missouri Republican presidential caucuses were held on March 2, 2024.

Alabama primary

See main article: 2024 Alabama Republican presidential primary.

Arkansas primary

See main article: 2024 Arkansas Republican presidential primary.

California primary

See main article: 2024 California Republican presidential primary.

Maine caucus

See main article: 2024 Maine Republican presidential caucuses.

Massachusetts primary

See main article: 2024 Massachusetts Republican presidential primary.

North Carolina primary

See main article: 2024 North Carolina Republican presidential primary.

Oklahoma primary

See main article: 2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary.

Tennessee primary

See main article: 2024 Tennessee Republican presidential primary.

Texas primary

See main article: 2024 Texas Republican presidential primary.

Utah caucus

See main article: 2024 Utah Republican presidential caucuses.

Virginia primary

See main article: 2024 Virginia Republican presidential primary.

Georgia primary

See main article: 2024 Georgia Republican presidential primary.

Mississippi primary

See main article: 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary.

Arizona primary

See main article: 2024 Arizona Republican presidential primary.

Florida primary

See main article: 2024 Florida Republican presidential primary.

Illinois primary

See main article: 2024 Illinois Republican presidential primary.

Kansas caucus

See main article: 2024 Kansas Republican presidential caucuses.

Ohio primary

See main article: 2024 Ohio Republican presidential primary.

Louisiana primary

See main article: 2024 Louisiana Republican presidential primary.

New York primary

See main article: 2024 New York Republican presidential primary.

Rhode Island primary

See main article: 2024 Rhode Island Republican presidential primary.

Wisconsin primary

See main article: 2024 Wisconsin Republican presidential primary.

Pennsylvania primary

See main article: 2024 Pennsylvania Republican presidential primary.

Indiana primary

See main article: 2024 Indiana Republican presidential primary.

Maryland primary

See main article: 2024 Maryland Republican presidential primary.

West Virginia primary

See main article: 2024 West Virginia Republican presidential primary.

Kentucky caucus

See main article: 2024 Kentucky Republican presidential caucuses.

Montana primary

See main article: 2024 Montana Republican presidential primary.

See also

Notes

Partisan clients

Notes and References

  1. Web site: RNC Announces Criteria and Date for First Debate in Milwaukee. Republican National Committee . June 2, 2023 . June 25, 2023.
  2. Web site: RNC to impose stricter criteria for candidates to make the second debate stage in September. August 1, 2023. August 2, 2023. CNN. Cohen. Ethan.
  3. Web site: Steinhauser . Paul . September 21, 2023 . RNC raising the bar for candidates to make the stage at November's third debate. September 21, 2023 . Fox News . en-US.
  4. https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/iowa-caucus Iowa
  5. https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/massachusetts-primary/ Massachusetts
  6. https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/new-hampshire-primary New Hampshire
  7. https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/south-carolina-primary South Carolina
  8. https://www.270towin.com/2024-republican-nomination/wisconsin-primary Wisconsin
  9. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/arizona/ Arizona
  10. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/california/ California
  11. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/florida/ Florida
  12. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/georgia/ Georgia
  13. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/ Iowa
  14. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/massachusetts/ Massachusetts
  15. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/michigan/ Michigan
  16. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/ New Hampshire
  17. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/north-carolina/ North Carolina
  18. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/ohio/ Ohio
  19. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/pennsylvania/ Pennsylvania
  20. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/south-carolina/ South Carolina
  21. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/tennessee/ Tennessee
  22. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/texas/ Texas
  23. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/virginia/ Virginia
  24. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/wisconsin/ Wisconsin
  25. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/iowa-caucus Iowa
  26. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/nevada-caucus Nevada
  27. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/new-hampshire New Hampshire
  28. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/south-carolina South Carolina