Spillover of the Tigray War explained

Conflict:	Spillover of the Tigray War
Place:	East Africa, particularly in Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia and Sudan
Width:	330px
Combatant1:	Ethiopia Amhara Region Afar Region Benishangul-Gumuz Gambela Region Harari Region Oromia Sidama Region Somali Region SNNPR Eritrea Central Region Somalia (alleged)
Combatant2:	UFEFCF Tigray Region Supported by: Eritrean opposition (alleged) ---- Sudan---- African Union
Partof:	the Tigray War and the Ethiopian civil conflict (2018–present)
Units1:	Ethiopian Armed Forces Eritrean Defence Forces Amhara militia Afar militia NISA (alleged)
Units2:	Tigray Defense Forces Oromo Liberation Army Eritrean Islamic Jihad (alleged) Eritrean Liberation Front (alleged)---- Sudanese Armed Forces---- AMISOM

The spillover of the Tigray War has had an impact on other countries in the surrounding region, particularly in Sudan.^[1] This spillover mainly consisted of Ethiopian refugees, more than 50,000 of which have crossed the Ethiopia–Sudan border.^[2] There have also been border clashes, mostly between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Ethiopian militias, but the Sudanese government has also claimed ambushes by the Ethiopian National Defense Force have taken place.^[3] Most of the fighting centered in Al-Fashaqa, a fertile plain claimed by both Sudan and Ethiopia.

Timeline

2020

• 28 December: Sudan says they retook 11 villages that were captured by Ethiopian militias.^[4]
• 28 December: Fighting in the town of Lilli after Amhara forces attacked, displaced 1,000 farmers.^[4]
• 31 December: Acting Sudanese Minister of Foreign Affairs Omer Ismail announced in a news conference that the Sudanese Armed Forces recaptured the remaining disputed territories of al-Fashqa district, which was previously settled by Amhara farmers.^[5]

2021

• 2 January: Sudan sends reinforcement to the Ethiopian border.^[6]
• 3 January: Sudan arrested 45 TPLF fighters that crossed over into Sudan.^[7]
• 4 January: Amhara militias from Ethiopia kidnapped and killed an unknown number of herders in Sudan.^[8]
• 6 January: Sudan says they repelled two attacks from Ethiopia and captured an Ethiopian soldier.^[9]
• 9 January: Ethiopia built a fence to stop refugees from crossing into Sudan.^[10]
• 11 January: Ethiopian forces infiltrated 5 km into Sudanese territory, killing six civilians.^[11]
• 13 January: A Sudanese Mil Mi-24 helicopter crashes near the Ethiopian border.^[12]
• 13 January: An Ethiopian military aircraft crossed the Ethiopia–Sudan border.^[13]
• 13 January: Sudanese military captured nine Ethiopian Military camps inside Ethiopia.^[14]
• 18 January: A cross border attack by a militia from Ethiopia killed two shepherds in Gallabat. The attackers stole 250 sheep in the attack.^[15]
• 20 January: An Ethiopian militia group attacked five Kilometers into Sudan destroying a car and injuring a farmer, the attack displaced 25 people.^[16]
• 24 January: Ethiopia fired mortar shells at a Sudanese patrol, causing Sudan to respond with their own mortar shelling in eastern Al-Gadaref province.^[17]
• 28 January: Ethiopia started deploying artillery, tanks, and anti aircraft systems to the border with Sudan.^[18]
• 30 January: Ethiopian militias kidnapped 3 merchants in the Basindah area causing Sudan to deploy military reinforcements to the area.^[19]
• 14 February: Sudan said Ethiopian soldiers crossed into its territory. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that Sudan had been plundering and displacing Ethiopian citizens since 6 November 2020 and that the Sudanese army should evacuate the area that it has forcefully occupied. Ethiopia has also accused Sudan of crossing into its territory.^[20]
• 20 February: The Sudanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed that Eritrean forces had entered into the al-Fashaga region with Ethiopian forces. Four days later on 24 February, Eritrea denied the involvement of its forces in the tensions on the Sudanese-Ethiopian borders. Stating that it wished for a peaceful solution to the conflict and that his government understands Sudan's position regarding its right to extend its sovereignty over its land.^[21]
• 23 February: Ethiopia asked Sudan to withdraw its troops from the disputed border area before peace talks could begin. The Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Dina Mufti, said that Ethiopia does not want to enter into conflict with Sudan again. He also said that Ethiopia wished to return to the 2008 compromise which would allow Ethiopian troops and civilians enter region undisturbed. Finally Mufti said there was a third party who pushed Sudan to enter into conflict with Ethiopia.^[22] The same day Sudan stated that it would not withdraw its troops from the border region and said the deployment of the Sudanese army on the border strip with Ethiopia is a final and irreversible decision.^[23]
• 2 March: The Sudanese army continued to push in the last Ethiopian stronghold of Bereket in the disputed border region of al-Fashaga against Ethiopian-backed forces. In the meantime, Sudan claimed Eritrean forces were helping the Ethiopians.^[24]
• 3 April: Sudan closed the Gallabat-Metemma border crossing with Ethiopia, two days after Ethiopian militiamen attacked Sudanese customs officials in presence of the Ethiopian military.^[25]
• 8 April: Walid Ahmad al-Sajjan, commander of the Fifth Brigade of the Sudanese Armed Forces in Umm Barakit, stated that the Sudanese military had retaken 95% of the disputed al-Fashaga region from Ethiopia.^[26]
• 13 April: Sudan released 61 Ethiopian soldiers it had captured and handed them to the Ethiopian government through the Gallabat border crossing.^[27]
• 23 July: Three children of the Fellata tribe were kidnapped by Ethiopian militias from an area near Gallabat and Metemma.^[28] Sudanese captain Bahaa El-Din Youssef, commander of the Gallabat Military Region, was later captured while pursuing the militia behind the kidnapping.
• Sudan closed the Gallabat border crossing again on 24 July.^[29]
• 26 September: Sudan's military stated that Ethiopian forces had tried to capture the Umm Barakit area a day earlier, but were forced to withdraw after a confrontation.^[30]
• 27 November: At least 20 Sudanese soldiers have been killed in an ambush by Ethiopian forces near the border.^[31]

Spillover locations

Within Ethiopia

Within Ethiopia, lots of fighting has happened outside the Tigray Region. For instance, heavy fighting has occurred in the Afar Region.^[32] The Oromo conflict and second insurgency in Ogaden have both been supported by the TPLF as well.^[33]

Eritrea

See also: Eritrean involvement in the Tigray War. Eritrea, despite its history of negative relations with Ethiopia, has been fighting in the Tigray Region alongside Ethiopian forces. Eritrea currently occupies territory in Tigray.^{[34] [35]}

South Sudan

On 29 November 2020, claims that South Sudan was giving safe haven to Debretsion led to the Ethiopian ambassador to South Sudan abruptly returning to Ethiopia, and South Sudanese diplomats in Ethiopia allegedly being given 72 hours to leave the country.^[36]

Sudan

Many clashes have occurred on the border between Ethiopia and Sudan as forces on both sides have fought over border regions.^{[4] [5] [6]} Sudan has also fought against Tigray forces that entered Sudanese territory.^[7]

Somalia

See also: 2022 al-Shabaab invasion of Ethiopia. On 7 December 2020, heavy fighting broke out between African Union Mission to Somalia and Ethiopian troops in Halgan District, Somalia, when Ethiopian troops tried to disarm Tigrayan troops within their ranks. In total, 21 Ethiopian soldiers of Tigrayan origin and 20 other Ethiopian soldiers were killed in the internal military mutiny.^[37]

Refugees

Throughout the Tigray War, more than 60,000 Ethiopian refugees have fled to Sudan.^[38] The United Nations operates several refugee camps in Sudan, including camps at Um Rakuba, Tunaydbah, and Hamdayet.^{[39] [40]} The refugees are largely Tigrayan with an Amhara minority.^[41]

Notes and References

1. News: Eltahir. Khalid Abdelaziz, Ali Mirghani, Nafisa. 18 December 2020. Analysis-Spillover from Tigray conflict adds to pressure on Sudan. en. Reuters. 13 January 2021.
2. Web site: Peralta . Eyder . December 12, 2020 . 'I Have Lost Everything': Ethiopian Refugees Flee For Their Lives . 13 January 2021 . NPR.org . en.
3. Web site: Sudan regains full control of border with Ethiopia: Ministry . 13 January 2021 . Al Jazeera . en.
4. Web site: 28 December 2020. Situation Report EEPA Horn no 39. – 28 December. Europe Extername Programme with Africa.
5. News: Abdelaziz . Khalid . Eltahir . Nafisa . 31 December 2020 . Sudan declares full control of border territory settled by Ethiopians . en . Reuters . Graff . Peter . 7 February 2021.
6. Web site: 3 January 2021. Situation Report EEPA Horn no. 44 – 3 January. 3 February 2021. European External Programme with Africa.
7. Web site: 4 January 2021. Situation Report EEPA Horn no. 45 – 4 January 2021. 3 February 2020. Europe External Programme with Africa.
8. Web site: 5 January 2021. Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 46 – 5 January. 3 February 2021. European External Programme with Africa.
9. Web site: 7 January 2021. Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 48 – 07 January. 3 February 2021. European External Programme with Africa.
10. Web site: 10 January 2021. Situation Report EEPA Horn no. 51 – 10 January. 3 February 2021. European External Programme with Africa.
11. Web site: 13 January 2021. Situation report EEPA Horn no 54 – 13 January. 3 February 2021. European External Programme with Africa.
12. Web site: Magdy . Samy . 13 January 2021 . Sudanese military helicopter crashes near Ethiopian border . 4 February 2021 . AP NEWS.
13. News: Abdelaziz . Khalid . Mourad . Mahmoud . 13 January 2021 . Sudan says Ethiopian military aircraft crossed border . en . Reuters . Heinrich . Mark . 4 February 2021.
14. Web site: 14 January 2021. Envoy: Sudan army seized 9 Ethiopia camps. 4 February 2021. Middle East Monitor. en-GB.
15. Web site: 18 January 2021. هجوم اثيوبي جديد يقود إلى استشهاد رعاة سودانيين بمحلية القلابات الشرقية. dead. 4 February 2021. اخبار السودان. ar. 18 January 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210118063645/https://sudanmotion.net/%D9%87%D8%AC%D9%88%D9%85-%D8%A7%D8%AB%D9%8A%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%8A-%D8%AC%D8%AF%D9%8A%D8%AF-%D9%8A%D9%82%D9%88%D8%AF-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D8%A7%D8%B3%D8%AA%D8%B4%D9%87%D8%A7%D8%AF-%D8%B1%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%A9/.
16. Web site: الانتباهة. صحيفة. 20 January 2021. توغل مليشيات إثيوبية بعمق 5 كيلومترات داخل الفشقة الكبرى وإصابة مزارع. 4 February 2021. اخبار السودان. ar.
17. Web site: Abdel-Raheem. Adel. 25 January 2021. Sudanese patrol shelled by Ethiopian forces: Report. 3 February 2020. Anadolu Agency.
18. News: Marks . Simon . 28 January 2021 . Ethiopia Moves Artillery to Sudanese Border After Deadly Clashes . en . Bloomberg . subscription . 4 February 2021.
19. Web site: السودان ينشر تعزيزات عسكرية في الحدود الشرقية بعد اختطاف مليشيات إثيوبية لـ 3 تجار – سودان تربيون. dead. 4 February 2021. www.sudantribune.net. 3 February 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210203224526/https://www.sudantribune.net/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%AF%D8%A7%D9%86-%D9%8A%D9%86%D8%B4%D8%B1-%D8%AA%D8%B9%D8%B2%D9%8A%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%B9%D8%B3%D9%83%D8%B1%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%81%D9%8A-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%AD%D8%AF%D9%88%D8%AF.
20. News: 2021-02-14 . Sudan says Ethiopian forces crossed border, raising tensions . en . Reuters . 2021-02-28.
21. Web site: إريتريا تتبرأ من التورط في المناوشات الحدودية بين السودان وأثيوبيا – سودان تربيون. 2021-02-28. Sudan Tribune.
22. Web site: 2021-02-23. Ethiopia tells Sudan to pull back from borders before talks. 2021-02-28. Arab News. en.
23. News: Abdelmonem . Bahram . 23 February 2021 . Sudan says will not withdraw from disputed area . .
24. Web site: Abdelmonem . Bahram . 2 March 2021 . Sudan army pushes to control disputed area with Ethiopia . Anadolu Agency.
25. Web site: 2021-04-04 . Sudan closes Gallabat border crossing after Ethiopian militiamen's attack . 2023-04-16 . Sudan Tribune . en-US.
26. News: السودان: استرداد 95% من أراضي الفشقة الحدودية مع إثيوبيا. Sudan: Reclaimed 95% of Al-Fashqa border lands with Ethiopia. Al Arabiya. April 8, 2021. September 29, 2021. ar.
27. News: Sudan hands over 61 captive soldiers to Ethiopia. Barham. Abdelmoneim. Bassel. Barakat. Anadolu Agency. April 13, 2021. September 29, 2021.
28. News: July 23, 2021 . Sudanese children abducted near Ethiopian border . Sudan Tribune . September 29, 2021.
29. Web site: مليشيا اثيوبية تقتاد قائد عسكري سوداني والسلطات تغلق معبر القلابات الحدودي – سودان تربيون. An Ethiopian militia captures a Sudanese commander, and the authorities are closing the Qalabat border crossing. Sudan Tribune. 23 July 2021. 29 September 2021. ar.
30. News: Sudan says it repelled attempted incursion by Ethiopian forces. Reuters. Khalid. Abdelaziz. Mahmoud. Mourad. Dawit. Endeshaw. Aidan. Lewis. Angus. MacSwan. September 26, 2021. September 26, 2021. registration.
31. Web site: Schnell . Mychael . 2021-11-29 . At least 20 Sudan troops dead after clash on Ethiopia border . 2023-04-16 . The Hill . en-US.
32. Web site: 2021-10-13. Fresh fighting in Ethiopia's Afar as army mounts 'offensive'. 2021-12-30. France 24. en.
33. Web site: Nine anti-gov't groups team up as Ethiopia recalls ex-soldiers. 2022-01-07. www.aljazeera.com. en.
34. News: In Ethiopia's war, Eritrea's army exacted deadly vengeance on old foes. en. Reuters. 2021-12-30.
35. Web site: 2021-10-07. Former enemies, Ethiopia and Eritrea are fighting on the same side in Tigray war. 2021-12-30. The Africa Report.com. en-US.
36. Web site: 29 November 2020 . BREAKING: Ethiopia expels South Sudan diplomats . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20201129232037/https://www.sudanspost.com/breaking-ethiopia-expels-south-sudan-diplomats/ . 29 November 2020 . 30 November 2020 . Sudans Post.
37. Web site: Situation Report EEPA Horn No. 18 07 December. live. https://web.archive.org/web/20210121041046/https://www.eepa.be/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Situation-Report-EEPA-Horn-No.-18-07-December.pdf. 21 January 2021. Europe External Programme with Africa.
38. Web site: 22 August 2021. Caught in the crossfire, Ethiopian minority flees to Sudan. 2021-12-15. www.aljazeera.com. en.
39. Web site: 5 January 2021. UNHCR relocates first Ethiopian refugees to a new site in Sudan. 2021-12-15. UNHCR. en.
40. Web site: Ethiopia's Tigray Refugee Crisis Explained. 2021-12-15. www.unrefugees.org.
41. Web site: Mohiedeen. Naba. 28 July 2021. More Refugees From Ethiopia Stream Into Sudan. 2021-12-15. VOA. en.