| Election Name: | 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri |
| Country: | Missouri |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | no |
| Previous Election: | 2016 United States Senate election in Missouri |
| Previous Year: | 2016 |
| Next Election: | 2028 United States Senate election in Missouri |
| Next Year: | 2028 |
| Election Date: | November 8, 2022 |
| Image1: | File:Sen. Eric Schmitt, official portrait, 118th Congress (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | Eric Schmitt |
| Party1: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote1: | 1,146,966 |
| Percentage1: | 55.43% |
| Nominee2: | Trudy Busch Valentine |
| Party2: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 872,694 |
| Percentage2: | 42.18% |
| U.S. Senator | |
| Before Election: | Roy Blunt |
| Before Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
| After Election: | Eric Schmitt |
| After Party: | Republican Party (United States) |
The 2022 United States Senate election in Missouri was held on November 8, 2022, concurrently with elections for all other Class 3 U.S. senators and elections for the U.S. House of Representatives, to select a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Missouri. Incumbent senator Roy Blunt, a Republican, did not seek a third term in office. Republican Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt won the open seat, defeating Democrat Trudy Busch Valentine.
In March 2021, incumbent Republican Senator Roy Blunt announced that he would not seek reelection in 2022.[1]
Republican candidates for Blunt's Senate seat included former Gov. Eric Greitens,[2] U.S. Rep. Vicky Hartzler,[3] U.S. Rep. Billy Long,[4] and Missouri Attorney General Eric Schmitt.[5]
Schmitt's candidacy was backed by Missouri mega-donor Rex Sinquefield.[6] In the speech announcing his candidacy, Schmitt tied himself to Donald Trump and spoke against "the radical left". He pledged to vote against Mitch McConnell for the Senate Republican party leadership position.[7]
In February 2022, Hartzler's campaign released a 30-second ad criticizing Lia Thomas, a transgender swimmer on the University of Pennsylvania women's team. In the ad, Hartzler said, "Women's sports are for women, not men pretending to be women", adding that, as Missouri's senator, she would not "look away while woke liberals destroy women's sports."[8]
U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley endorsed Hartzler in February 2022.[9] On July 8, 2022, Donald Trump refused to endorse Hartzler, saying, "I don't think she has what it takes to take on the Radical Left Democrats."[10] [9]
Greitens was endorsed by former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani, former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Ryan Zinke, and Fox News personality Kimberly Guilfoyle, the latter joining his campaign as a national chair.[11]
Many Republican officials, strategists, and donors maneuvered to stymie Greitens's attempted comeback, believing that the scandal surrounding his resignation as governor, his extramarital affair, and the sexual assault accusation against him would make him a weak general election candidate and lead to the loss of the Senate seat to a Democrat.[12] Notable Republican opponents of Greitens's candidacy included Karl Rove, Johnny DeStefano,[12] and Senator Rick Scott, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.[13] After Greitens's ex-wife filed an affidavit against him in March 2022 accusing him of physical abuse, Senator Josh Hawley (who had endorsed Vicky Hartzler the previous month[14]) called upon Greitens to drop out.[15]
Republican megadonor Richard Uihlein funded a pro-Greitens super PAC ("Team PAC"), contributing $2.5 million to it.[16] Other Republican megadonors, including Rex Sinquefield and August Busch, aligned against Greitens.[12] A Republican-funded anti-Greitens super PAC ("Show Me Values PAC") was created in June 2022[17] and ran $6.2 million in ads through late July 2022.[18]
Republican officials, including Rick Scott, waged a campaign to persuade Donald Trump not to endorse Greitens.[13] On the eve of the primary election, Trump issued a statement endorsing "ERIC" in the primary, leaving it unclear which "Eric" he was endorsing.[13] [19]
In the primary election, Schmitt prevailed with 45.7% of the vote; Hartzler received 22.1%, Greitens 18.9%, and Long 5%.
The day before the primary, former president Donald Trump released a statement endorsing "ERIC". There were three candidates with the first name Eric running in the Republican primary: Eric Greitens, Eric McElroy, and Eric Schmitt. Trump's statement did not offer any clarification on whether this was an endorsement for one or multiple candidates, and when reached for comment by NBC News, Trump's office declined to clarify the endorsement.[51] [52]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Greitens | Vicky Hartzler | Billy Long | Mark McCloskey | Dave Schatz | Eric Schmitt | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 31 – August 1, 2022 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 21% | 18% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 34% | – | 15% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | July 27–28, 2022 | 818 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 18% | 22% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 34% | 2% | 8% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | July 27, 2022 | 891 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 17% | 16% | – | – | – | 28% | – | – | ||
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 787 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 20% | 13% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 28% | 4% | 21% | ||
| Emerson College | July 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 16% | 21% | 5% | 4% | 2% | 33% | 1% | 17% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | July 23–24, 2022 | 802 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 18% | 25% | 8% | 4% | 3% | 32% | – | 10% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | July 22–24, 2022 | 1,059 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 20% | 24% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 27% | – | 16% | ||
| The Tarrance Group (R) | July 5–7, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 16% | 24% | 6% | 4% | 4% | 28% | – | 18% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | June 28–30, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 24% | 24% | 6% | 3% | 4% | 23% | – | 17% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | June 22–23, 2022 | 911 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 20% | 19% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 25% | – | 21% | ||
| Emerson College | June 2–5, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 26% | 16% | 8% | 4% | 0% | 20% | 1% | 27% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | May 16–18, 2022 | 1,065 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 26% | 23% | 9% | 3% | 3% | 19% | – | 17% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 642 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 26% | 11% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 17% | 7% | 28% | ||
| Remington Research (R) | May 11–12, 2022 | 945 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 21% | 23% | – | – | – | 29% | 10% | 17% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | May 2–4, 2022 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 26% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 14% | – | 27% | ||
| NMB Research (R) | April 6–7, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 23% | 20% | 7% | 3% | 2% | 25% | 20% | – | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | April 4–6, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 22% | 23% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 16% | – | 21% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 24–29, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 24% | 25% | 8% | 2% | 3% | 22% | – | 16% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | March 22–23, 2022 | 941 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 21% | 19% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 24% | – | 19% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | February 22–24, 2022 | 1,026 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 17% | 6% | 5% | 2% | 23% | 3% | 15% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | February 16–17, 2022 | 917 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 25% | 18% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 22% | – | 20% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | January 26–27, 2022 | 902 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 28% | 19% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 23% | – | 17% | ||
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | January 2022 | – (LV) | – | 30% | 16% | 9% | 6% | 1% | 16% | – | 23% | ||
| CMA Strategies (R) | January 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 27% | 12% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 15% | – | 36% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | December 1–2, 2021 | 744 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 27% | 16% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 24% | – | 19% | ||
| NMB Research (R) | December 2021 | – (LV) | – | 34% | – | – | – | – | 17% | 49% | – | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | October 20–21, 2021 | 806 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 27% | 19% | 8% | 4% | – | 25% | – | 17% | ||
| Fabrizio Lee (R) | October 3–5, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 10% | 6% | 4% | – | 17% | 1% | 25% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | September 8–9, 2021 | 847 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 27% | 17% | 8% | 5% | – | 28% | – | 15% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | August 4–5, 2021 | 911 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 27% | 13% | 12% | 9% | – | 24% | – | 15% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | June 9–10, 2021 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 14% | – | 7% | – | 25% | – | 20% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | March 24–25, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | – | 14% | – | – | 30% | – | 20% | ||
| 40% | – | – | – | – | 39% | – | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Blunt | John Brunner | Eric Greitens | Vicky Hartzler | Billy Long | Eric Schmitt | Jason Smith | Ann Wagner | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | March 24–25, 2021 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | – | 2% | 31% | 8% | 6% | 18% | 9% | 12% | 14% | ||
| – | 10% | 38% | – | – | 30% | – | – | 22% | ||||||
| – | – | 36% | – | – | 29% | 16% | – | 19% | ||||||
| – | – | 38% | – | – | 26% | – | 18% | 18% | ||||||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | March 23–25, 2021 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | – | – | 48% | – | – | 11% | 7% | 9% | 26% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | December 2–3, 2020 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | – | 32% | – | – | – | – | – | 25% |
As the Democratic primary season progressed, three main contenders emerged: Lucas Kunce, director of national security at the American Economic Liberties Project; Spencer Toder, a businessman; and Trudy Busch Valentine, heiress of the Anheuser-Busch brewing company.[54] Kunce and Toder both campaigned as anti-establishment populists, whereas Valentine campaigned in a staid manner with few public appearances.[54]
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Lucas Kunce | Spencer Toder | Valentine | Wright | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 547 (LV) | ± 5.6% | 14% | 3% | 40% | 6% | 9% | 28% | |||
| Emerson College | July 21–23, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 35% | 3% | 39% | 1% | 1% | 22% | |||
| Triton Polling & Research (D) | May 2022 | ~544 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 19% | 24% | 26% | – | – | 31% | |||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 10% | 3% | 8% | 3% | 12% | 63% | |||
| Public Policy Polling (D) | April 13–14, 2022 | 546 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 25% | – | 18% | – | – | 56% |
John Wood, a former Bush administration official and a January 6 Committee investigator, announced that he would run for the seat as an independent on June 29, but he withdrew from the race after former Missouri Governor Eric Greitens lost the Republican primary to Schmitt.[70] [71]
| Source | Ranking | As of | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 538[75] | November 7, 2022 | |||
| align=left | The Cook Political Report[76] | November 7, 2022 | ||
| DDHQ[77] | November 7, 2022 | |||
| The Economist[78] | November 7, 2022 | |||
| Fox News[79] | November 1, 2022 | |||
| align=left | Inside Elections[80] | November 3, 2022 | ||
| Politico[81] | August 12, 2022 | |||
| RCP[82] | November 5, 2022 | |||
| align=left | Sabato's Crystal Ball[83] | November 7, 2022 |
| Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Eric Schmitt (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | Undecided | Margin | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RealClearPolitics | October 24 – November 1, 2022 | November 1, 2022 | 52.0% | 41.3% | 6.7% | Schmitt +10.7 | |||
| FiveThirtyEight | May 15 – November 4, 2022 | November 4, 2022 | 53.1% | 41.9% | 5.0% | Schmitt +11.2 | |||
| 270towin | October 29 – November 7, 2022 | November 7, 2022 | 52.0% | 40.8% | 7.2% | Schmitt +11.2 | |||
| Average | 52.4% | 41.3% | 6.3% | Schmitt +11.0 | |||||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs | November 4–7, 2022 | 746 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 55% | 40% | – | 4% | 2% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,079 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 53% | 42% | – | 2% | 2% | ||
| SurveyUSA | October 27 – November 1, 2022 | 791 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 50% | 41% | – | 3% | 6% | ||
| Emerson College | October 26–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | – | 5% | – | ||
| 51% | 39% | – | 4% | 6% | ||||||
| Remington Research (R) | October 24–25, 2022 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 42% | – | 3% | 4% | ||
| Emerson College | September 23–27, 2022 | 1,160 (VLV) | ± 2.8% | 49% | 38% | – | 3% | 10% | ||
| SurveyUSA | September 14–18, 2022 | 670 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 36% | – | 4% | 14% | ||
| Remington Research (R) | August 24–25, 2022 | 1,011 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 40% | – | 2% | 7% | ||
| Wood withdraws from the race | ||||||||||
| YouGov/SLU | August 8–16, 2022 | 900 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 49% | 38% | – | 5% | 8% | ||
| 44% | 31% | 10% | 3% | 13% | ||||||
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 30% | 9% | 6% | 18% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 34% | – | – | 19% | ||
| Remington Research (R) | April 27–28, 2022 | 986 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 32% | – | – | 18% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 26% | 13% | 10% | 21% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 42% | 36% | – | – | 22% | ||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 45% | – | – | 9% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 34% | 26% | – | – | 40% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | October 3–4, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | – | – | 13% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 31% | 31% | 10% | 8% | 20% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 37% | – | – | 20% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | April 27–28, 2022 | 986 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 37% | – | – | 17% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 34% | 25% | 12% | 9% | 20% | |||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 31% | – | – | 24% | |||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 56% | 39% | – | – | 5% | |||
| co/efficient (R) | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 23% | 16% | – | – | 61% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Trudy Busch Valentine (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 32% | 31% | 9% | 7% | 21% | ||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 44% | 33% | – | – | 23% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | April 27–28, 2022 | 986 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 33% | – | – | 18% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Lucas Kunce (D) | John Wood (I) | Other | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | July 24–27, 2022 | 1,591 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 27% | 10% | 6% | 20% | |||
| SurveyUSA | May 11–15, 2022 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 46% | 34% | – | – | 19% | |||
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 55% | 40% | – | – | 5% | |||
| co/efficient (R) | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 28% | 23% | – | – | 49% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Jay Nixon (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | July 14–15, 2021 | 922 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 39% | 26% | 35% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | October 3–4, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 42% | 9% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | February 17–18, 2021 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Greitens (R) | Generic Democrat | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPA Intelligence (R) | November 16–18, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 36% | 15% | ||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R) | October 3–4, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Vicky Hartzler (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 57% | 37% | 6% | |||
| co/efficient (R) | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 22% | 17% | 61% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Eric Schmitt (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Trafalgar Group (R) | March 9–13, 2022 | 1,075 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 40% | 6% | ||
| co/efficient (R) | December 16–17, 2021 | 1,210 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 23% | 18% | 60% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | April 7–8, 2021 | 936 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Roy Blunt (R) | Scott Sifton (D) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | February 17–18, 2021 | 954 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% | ||
| Remington Research (R)/Missouri Scout | January 6–7, 2021 | 980 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 52% | 34% | 14% |
Schmitt prevailed over Valentine on Election Day.[85]
Schmitt won 6 of 8 congressional districts.[86]
| District | Schmitt | Busch Valentine | Representative | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 79% | Cori Bush | ||||
| 51% | 48% | Ann Wagner | ||||
| 59% | 38% | Blaine Luetkemeyer | ||||
| 66% | 31% | Vicky Hartzler (117th Congress) | ||||
| Mark Alford (118th Congress) | ||||||
| 35% | 62% | Emanuel Cleaver | ||||
| 65% | 32% | Sam Graves | ||||
| 68% | 29% | Billy Long (117th Congress) | ||||
| Eric Burlison (118th Congress) | ||||||
| 73% | 24% | Jason Smith |