2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election
Country:	South Carolina
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 South Carolina gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2022 South Carolina gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Nominee1:	Henry McMaster
Party1:	Republican Party (United States)
Running Mate1:	Pamela Evette
Popular Vote1:	921,342
Percentage1:	53.96%
Nominee2:	James Smith
Party2:	Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	784,182
Percentage2:	45.92%
Governor
Before Election:	Henry McMaster
Before Party:	Republican Party (United States)
After Election:	Henry McMaster
After Party:	Republican Party (United States)

The 2018 South Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of South Carolina. Incumbent Republican Governor Henry McMaster, who took office after Nikki Haley resigned to become U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, ran for election to a full term. The primary was held on June 12, with the Democrats nominating State Representative James E. Smith Jr. McMaster failed to win a majority of the vote, and then defeated John Warren in the Republican runoff on June 26. In the general election, McMaster defeated Smith, winning election to a full term.^[1]

Republicans won a fifth straight election, their longest such streak in history.

Republican primary

Candidates

Nominee

• Henry McMaster, incumbent governor^[2]
  • Running mate: Pamela Evette, businesswoman^[3]

Defeated in runoff

• John Warren, businessman^{[4] [5]}
  • Running mate: Pat McKinney, businessman^[6]

Defeated in primary

• Kevin Bryant, incumbent Lieutenant Governor^[7]
• Yancey McGill, former Democratic lieutenant governor and former Democratic state senator^{[8] [9]}
• Catherine Templeton, attorney, former director of the Department of Health and Environmental Control and former director of the Department of Labor, Licensing and Regulation^[10]
  • Running mate: Walt Wilkins, Greenville County Solicitor^[11]

Declined

• Tom Davis, state senator^[12]
• Jeff Duncan, U.S. Representative^{[13] [14]}
• Mikee Johnson, businessman and former chairman of the South Carolina Chamber of Commerce (endorsed Catherine Templeton)^[15]
• Tim Scott, U.S. Senator^{[16] [17] [18]}
• Joe Taylor, former South Carolina Secretary of Commerce^{[19] [20]}
• Billy Wilkins, former Chief Judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit^{[9] [21] [22]}
• Alan Wilson, attorney general (running for re-election)^{[13] [9] [23]}

First round

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Henry McMaster	Kevin Bryant	Yancey McGill	Catherine Templeton	John Warren	Other	Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)	May 29–31, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	33%	5%	2%	17%	align=center	19%	–	align=center	24%
Target-Insyght	May 29–31, 2018	400	± 5.0%	align=center	37%	4%	3%	align=center	25%	20%	–	11%
Target-Insyght	April 3–5, 2018	400	± 5.0%	align=center	46%	6%	4%	align=center	22%	1%	–	align=center	22%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 10–17, 2018	397	–	align=center	41%	5%	3%	align=center	10%	2%	–	align=center	35%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	November 29 – December 30, 2017	2,223	± 2.1%	align=center	40%	align=center	11%	3%	8%	–	10%	align=center	28%
Mason-Dixon	December 6–10, 2017	400	± 5.0%	align=center	51%	8%	1%	21%	–	–	19%
South Carolina Public Affairs	October 10–11, 2017	633	± 4.0%	align=center	33%	5%	5%	align=center	7%	–	–	align=center	50%

Results

Runoff

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Henry McMaster	John Warren	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	June 19–21, 2018	1,650	± 3.0%	align=center	54%	37%	9%
Fabrizio, Lee and Associates (R-Warren)	June 19–20, 2018	500	± 4.4%	42%	align=center	46%	13%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	June 13–14, 2018	1,000	± 3.0%	align=center	60%	31%	9%

Results

Democratic primary

Candidates

Nominee

• James Smith, state representative^[24]
  • Running mate: Mandy Powers Norrell, state representative^[25]

Defeated in Primary

• Phil Noble, business and technology consultant and candidate for lieutenant governor in 1994^[26]
  • Running mate: Gloria Bromell Tinubu, former Atlanta, Georgia City Councilwoman, former Georgia State Representative and nominee for SC-07 in 2012 and 2014^[27]
• Marguerite Willis, attorney^[28]
  • Running mate: John Scott, state senator^[29]

Declined

• Steve Benjamin, Mayor of Columbia^{[13] [9] [30]}
• Marlon Kimpson, state senator^{[9] [31] [30] [32]}
• Inez Tenenbaum, former State Superintendent of Education, former chair of the Consumer Product Safety Commission and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2004^{[31] [30]}

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Phil Noble	James Smith	Marguerite Willis	Other	Undecided
Target-Insyght	April 3–5, 2018	400	± 5.0%	align=center	27%	align=center	27%	21%	–	25%
TargetPoint/GQR	March 10–17, 2018	296	–	7%	align=center	18%	align=center	11%	–	align=center	57%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	November 29 – December 30, 2017	2,223	± 2.1%	align=center	25%	align=center	20%	–	21%	align=center	34%

Results

Independents and third parties

Declared

• Phil Cheney (Independent), former Anderson City Councilman, candidate for SC-03 in 2006 and write-in candidate for SC-05 in 2017^[33]

Failed Nomination

• Martin Barry (American Party), medication researcher,^[34] nomination declined by the American Party^[35]
  • Running mate: James Cartee, theater director

General election

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[36]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[37]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[38]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[39]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[40]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[41]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[42]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[43]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[44]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[45]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Henry McMaster (R)	James Smith (D)	Undecided
The Trafalgar Group (R)	October 29–31, 2018	3,792	± 1.6%	align=center	54%	38%	8%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	October 12–14, 2018	4,830	± 2.1%	align=center	56%	32%	12%
The Trafalgar Group (R)	September 24 – October 2, 2018	2,692	± 1.9%	align=center	51%	37%	13%
The Tarrance Group (R-RGA)	August 11–13, 2018	601	± 4.1%	align=center	52%	41%	7%
Garin-Hart-Yang (D-Smith)	August 6–9, 2018	605	± 4.1%	align=center	47%	43%	10%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Darlington (largest city: Hartsville)

Results by congressional district

McMaster won 6 of 7 congressional districts. ^[46]

District	McMaster	Smith	Representative
	52%	48%		Mark Sanford
			Joe Cunningham
		54%	46%		Joe Wilson
		67%	33%		Jeff Duncan
	59%	41%		Trey Gowdy
			William Timmons
		57%	43%		Ralph Norman
		30%	70%		Jim Clyburn
		57%	43%		Tom Rice

See also

• 2018 South Carolina elections

External links

• • Candidates at Vote Smart Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Henry McMaster (R) for Governor
• James Smith (D) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: South Carolina 2018 General Election. Thegreenpapers.com. 22 May 2018.
2. Web site: McMaster is 'hoping to be in' next South Carolina gov's race. The Herald. Kinnard. Meg. August 25, 2016. September 5, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160829120351/http://www.heraldonline.com/latest-news/article97820172.html. August 29, 2016. dead. mdy-all.
3. Web site: Political novice and newcomer joins Gov. Henry McMaster as 2018 running mate. The Post and Courier. Adcox. Seanna. November 28, 2017. December 5, 2017.
4. Web site: Upstate businessman exploring 2018 South Carolina governor's run. The Post and Courier. Shain. Andy. Adcox. Seanna. December 1, 2017. December 5, 2017.
5. Web site: #SC2018: John Warren Entering Governor's Race . February 11, 2018 . FITSNews . February 12, 2018.
6. News: SC Gov Hopeful Warren Picks Businessman as Running Mate . Kinnard . Meg . May 30, 2018 . U.S. News & World Report.
7. Web site: 'I am the right': South Carolina Lt. Gov. Kevin Bryant joins 2018 governor's race. The Post and Courier. Brown. Andy. July 28, 2017. September 5, 2017.
8. Web site: EXCLUSIVE: Former Lt. Gov. McGill running for governor as a Republican. The State. Shain. Andrew. March 21, 2016. May 25, 2016.
9. Web site: 2018 governor's race starts to loom large after November. So who's going to run?. The Post and Courier. Jackson. Gavin. September 4, 2016. September 5, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160905133808/http://www.postandcourier.com/20160904/160909733/2018-governors-race-starts-to-loom-large-after-november-so-whos-going-to-run-. September 5, 2016. dead.
10. Web site: Catherine Templeton running for governor. Kropf. Schuyler. November 19, 2016. The Post and Courier. Duncan. Emma. November 28, 2016.
11. News: Greenville prosecutor will join South Carolina governor ticket. Andy Shain. Post and Courier. 2018-05-22. en.
12. Web site: Sen. Tom Davis opts out of running for South Carolina governor in 2018. The Post and Courier. Shain. Andy. September 6, 2017. September 7, 2017.
13. Web site: Possible candidates already eyeing governor's mansion. Statehouse Report. Brack. Andy. July 17, 2015. May 25, 2016.
14. Web site: Jeff Duncan rules out running for S.C. governor. The Anderson Independent-Mail. Brown. Kirk. April 10, 2017. May 5, 2017.
15. Web site: Governor 2018: Mikee Johnson Is Out. FITS News. March 18, 2016. May 25, 2016.
16. Web site: Tim Scott, Trey Gowdy could team up for governor, lt. governor bid. Andy Shain. Emma Dumain. Postandcourier.com. 22 May 2018.
17. News: Sen. Tim Scott leaning toward not running for South Carolina governor . December 5, 2016 . . Dumain, Emma . Kropf, Schuyler . December 12, 2016.
18. News: South Carolina 2018 governor's race: Sen. Tim Scott out, Catherine Templeton in. Emma Dumain. Post and Courier. 2017-04-04. en.
19. Web site: Joe Taylor Mulls 2018 Gubernatorial Bid. FITS News. September 8, 2016. September 21, 2016.
20. Web site: Catherine Templeton Backed By Joe Taylor. FITS News. September 29, 2017. September 29, 2017.
21. Web site: Billy Wilkins considering run for governor in '18. Greenville Journal. Dykes. David. August 26, 2016. September 5, 2016.
22. Web site: Wilkins won't run for governor in 2018. Upstate Business Journal. Dykes. David. November 14, 2016. November 28, 2016.
23. Web site: Palmetto Politics: All of South Carolina's Republicans in Washington took gun lobby money last year. The Post and Courier. Kropf. Schuyler. October 7, 2017. October 9, 2017.
24. News: Shain. Andy. Rep. James Smith becomes first Democrat to enter 2018 South Carolina governor's race. 5 October 2017. Charleston Post Courier. 5 October 2017.
25. News: Schechter. Maayan. Democrats Smith, Noble pick running mates in the governor's race. 11 May 2018. The State. 8 May 2018.
26. News: Kropf. Schuyler. Charleston consultant Phil Noble joins Democratic Race for Governor. 10 October 2017. Charleston Post Courier. 10 October 2017.
27. News: Lovegrove. Jamie. Democratic hopeful Phil Noble picks running mate in South Carolina governor's race. 11 May 2018. The Post and Courier. 10 May 2018.
28. News: Another candidate jumps into the race for SC governor. 1 February 2018. The State. Bristow. Marchant. January 31, 2018.
29. News: Democratic candidate for governor Marguerite Willis names state Sen. John Scott as running mate. 30 March 2018. The Post and Courier. Jamie. Lovegrove. March 27, 2018.
30. Web site: Democrats running for SC governor? It's anyone's guess. The State. Self. Jamie. September 20, 2016. September 21, 2016.
31. Web site: 2018 SC Governor's Race - 8 Democrats to Watch. Speak Strategic. Jones. Tyler. September 13, 2016. September 21, 2016.
32. Web site: James Smith wins endorsements from Lowcountry politicians in S.C. governor's race. The Post and Courier. Shain. Andy. November 14, 2017. December 5, 2017.
33. News: Candidate for Governor Wants McLeod for Running Mate, Hasn't Met Her. FreeTimes. Trainor. Chris. December 29, 2017. February 6, 2018.
34. News: Third party candidate files to run for governor. WYFF4. Moore. Matt. 29 March 2018. 11 May 2018.
35. Web site: Third-party candidate out of race for SC governor. Matt. Moore. 10 August 2018. WYFF. 7 February 2019.
36. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
37. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
38. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. en. October 17, 2018.
39. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
40. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
41. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
42. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
43. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
44. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
45. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
46. https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::ac3c139e-73a1-4391-87f4-1aaaf7ead166