Sea wall (British politics) explained

The Sea wall is a term used by psephologists to refer to battleground constituencies along the UK coastline.[1] The sea wall is predominantly Conservative voting but is home to many marginal seats that are vulnerable to Labour according to opinion polls.[2] [3] Along with Red wall and Blue wall, the Sea wall overlaps both[4] and has been used in coverage for the 2024 general election. There are thought to be 108 such constituencies.[5] In the 2019 general election, Labour won just 24 of these seats.[6]

Coastal constituencies in England and Wales are noted for deprivation.[7] [8] They are personified by tourism-based economies, the cost of living crisis, and poor connectivity.[9] Coastal communities are known to have lower wages compared to people living and working inland.[10] The availability of affordable housing has also been an issue.[11]

Before the 2024 general election, the think tank Onward has called coastal areas “the forgotten battleground that could decide [this] election”.[12]

Background

The term was used 2022 local elections when the Labour Party took majority control of Worthing Borough Council just five years after winning their first councillor in the district.[13] Labour are considered to be competitive in Conservative areas within the South like Plymouth, Bournemouth, Southampton, and Portsmouth.[14]

Research from the Fabian Society was reported on that Labour had unprecedented polling leads over the Conservatives.[15] The "sea wall" is regarded by them as an important area for the 2024 general election.[16] YouGov polling showed that 44% of voters in the Sea wall said they would never consider voting Conservative.[17]

Jaywick in Tendring District in Essex is the most deprived neighbourhood in England.[18] The Clacton constituency was noted for being the only place to elect a UKIP MP in a general election.[19] Since Brexit, Conservative support in coastal areas that voted Leave has been waning.[20] On 3 June 2024, Nigel Farage took over Reform UK and announced his candidacy in Clacton.[21]

Elections in the 2020s

Labour won the 2024 Blackpool South by-election with a large swing.[22] Channel 4 has reported during the 2024 United Kingdom general election that the coastal towns in the sea wall will determine the election.[23]

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. News: National Swing Man, the British electorate's new-old tribe . 2024-04-09 . The Economist . 0013-0613.
  2. Web site: Walker . Ben . 2022-12-14 . How Labour has overtaken the Conservatives in "Sea Wall" battlegrounds . 2024-02-29 . State of the Nation . en-US.
  3. Web site: Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows . 2024-05-30 . Sky News . en.
  4. News: Savage . Michael . 2023-06-10 . Labour has clear lead over Tories in more than 100 battleground seats, poll finds . 2024-02-29 . The Observer . en-GB . 0029-7712.
  5. Web site: Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows . 2024-02-29 . Sky News . en.
  6. Web site: Boucott-Owen . Mason . 16 December 2022 . Tories set to lose 'Sea Wall' of coastal seats . The Yorkshire Post.
  7. News: Association . Press . 2017-09-04 . Seaside towns among most deprived communities in UK . 2024-02-29 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077.
  8. News: 2017-09-03 . Coastal communities among worst off in UK, report finds . 2024-02-29 . BBC News . en-GB.
  9. Web site: Thomas . Jane . 2024-01-11 . Sea wall replaces red wall: can Labour win the coast? . 2024-02-29 . Yorkshire Bylines . en-GB.
  10. News: 2019-10-09 . Coastal communities: Residents earn £1,600 less than people inland . 2024-02-29 . BBC News . en-GB.
  11. Web site: Locals at risk of being priced out of Britain's prettiest coastal towns . 2024-02-29 . Sky News . en.
  12. Web site: Green . Daniel . 2024-04-14 . Adur local elections: How a red wave can end 25-year Tory grip on south coast . 2024-04-24 . LabourList . en-GB.
  13. News: 2022-05-06 . Sussex election results 2022: Labour wins control of Worthing for first time . 2024-02-29 . BBC News . en-GB.
  14. News: Stewart . Heather . 2022-05-06 . From 'red wall' to 'sea wall': five things we learned from the local elections . 2024-02-29 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077.
  15. Web site: 2024-02-23 . Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows Politics News - The South Yorkshire Scoop . 2024-02-29 . thesouthyorkshirescoop.com . en-US.
  16. Web site: 2022-12-14 . Breaching the Sea Wall Fabian Society . 2024-02-29 . Fabian Society - The Fabian Society is Britain’s oldest political think tank. Founded in 1884, the Society is at the forefront of developing political ideas and public policy on the left. . en.
  17. Web site: FM . Seaside . Labour lead grows in 'sea wall' constituencies, polling shows . 2024-02-29 . Seaside FM . en-gb.
  18. News: 2019-09-26 . England's most deprived areas named as Jaywick and Blackpool . 2024-02-29 . BBC News . en-GB.
  19. Web site: McSmith . Andy . 10 October 2014 . Clacton by-election: Douglas Carswell becomes Ukip's first ever elected MP after a sensational victory . The Independent.
  20. News: Moore . Hannah . 2023-09-19 . Clacton-on-Sea: the 'forgotten' town that voted for Brexit . 2024-02-29 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077.
  21. Web site: 2024-06-03 . Nigel Farage to run as Reform UK candidate in Clacton . 2024-06-28 . BBC News . en-gb.
  22. News: Stacey . Kiran . Vinter . Robyn . 2024-05-03 . Starmer hails Blackpool South win as result points to big Labour victory at general election . 2024-05-05 . The Guardian . en-GB . 0261-3077.
  23. Web site: Moodley . Kiran . 2024-06-12 . Could votes from ‘Sea Wall’ constituencies determine the election? . 2024-06-12 . Channel 4 News . en-GB.

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