Roy Amara Explained

Roy Amara
Birth Name:	Roy Charles Amara
Birth Date:	7 April 1925
Children:	3
Nationality:	American
Fields:	Futurism
Education:	MIT, Harvard, Stanford
Work Institution:	SRI International, IFTF
Alma Mater:	Stanford
Known For:	Amara's law

Roy Charles Amara (7 April 1925^[1] – 31 December 2007^[2]) was an American researcher, scientist, futurist^[3] and president of the Institute for the Future best known for coining Amara's law on the effect of technology. He held a BS in Management, an MS in the Arts and Sciences, and a PhD in Systems Engineering,^[4] and also worked at the Stanford Research Institute.

Amara's law

His adage about forecasting the effects of technology has become known as Amara's law and states:

We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.^{[5] [6] [7]}

The law has been used in explaining nanotechnology.^[8]

Selected bibliography

Books

• Amara . Roy . Boucher . Wayne I. . The study of the future: an agenda for research . 1977 . National Science Foundation . National Science Foundation . . Washington, D.C. . 3200105 . NSF/RA-770036 .
• Book: Amara . Roy . Lipinski . Andrew J. . Business planning for an uncertain future: scenarios & strategies . Pergamon Press . New York . 1983 . 9780080275451 . registration .
• Book: Amara . Roy . Morrison . J. Ian . Schmid . Gregory . Looking ahead at American health care . McGraw-Hill, Healthcare Information Center . Washington, D.C. . 1988 . 9780070013841 .
• Book: Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . Health and health care 2010: the forecast, the challenge . . Hoboken, New Jersey . 2003 . 2nd . 9780470932513 .

Reports

• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1972 . A framework for national science policy analysis . 4484161 . . Menlo Park, California . P-18 . Reprinted from IEEE transactions on systems, man, and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 1 January 1972 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1972 . Toward a framework for national goals and policy research . 11724396 . . Menlo Park, California . Reprinted from IEEE Transactions on systems, man and cybernetics, v. SMC-2, no. 5 November 1972 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1972 . The social responsibilities of business . 5744644 . . Menlo Park, California . Prepared for the White House Conference on the Industrial World Ahead, Washington, D.C., 2–9 February 1972 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1973 . Draft summaries of four workshops on the social impact of the computer . 709544477 . . Menlo Park, California .
• Amara . Roy . Lipinski . Andrew J. . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1974 . Strategic planning: penetrating the corporate barriers . 4349610 . . Menlo Park, California .
• Amara . Roy . World Future Society . World Future Society . 1975 . The next 25 years: crises and challenges . 3693807 . . Menlo Park, California . P-31 . Presented at the World Future Society Second General Assembly Plenary Session, June 2, 1975 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1975 . Some methods of futures research . 2456542 . . Menlo Park, California .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1975 . Emerging societal issues: some suggestions for research . 17817243 . . Menlo Park, California . WP-22 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1978 . The U.S. in the decade ahead: an inventory of resources: American Vocational Association national convention, 4 December, 1978 . 7527420 . . Menlo Park, California . P-72 .
• Amara . Roy . Lipinski . Hubert . Spangler . Kathleen . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1978 . Communication needs in computer modeling . 7511471 . . Menlo Park, California . P-67 . Published in Conference proceedings 1978 Winter Simulation Conference (WSC 1978). Pdf.^[9]
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1978 . The future of voluntarism: meeting changing societal needs . 7293285 . . Menlo Park, California . P-69 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1978 . Planning, futures and the skeptics . 6661254 . . Menlo Park, California .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1978 . Toward understanding the social impact of computers . 1166342 . . Menlo Park, California . R-29 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1980 . The future of management: ten shapers of management in the '80s . 8390527 . . Menlo Park, California . P-80 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1980 . Imperatives for tomorrow: the I's have it: images, institutions, involvement . 7917815 . . Menlo Park, California . P-87 .
• Amara . Roy . Institute for the future . Institute for the Future . 1980 . The futures field . 7919207 . . Menlo Park, California . P-95 .

References

1. Web site: Amara, Roy . Library of Congress . 18 February 2015 . data sheet (Amara, Roy Charles, b. 4/7/25) .
2. News: Pescovitz. David. Roy Amara, forecaster, RIP. 18 February 2015. BoingBoing. 3 January 2008.
3. http://www.neatorama.com/2012/09/05/Four-Geeky-Laws-That-Rule-Our-World/ Four Geeky Laws That Rule Our World
4. Web site: Roy Amara (biography). University of Arizona: Anticipating the future (course), Futures Thinkers. 18 February 2015.
5. Book: Oxford Essential Quotations . 1 . Susan Ratcliffe . Oxford University Press . 2016 . 4th . Roy Amara 1925–2007, American futurologist . http://www.oxfordreference.com/view/10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001/q-oro-ed4-00018679 . 10.1093/acref/9780191826719.001.0001 .
6. Encyclopedia: Definition of: Amara's law. PC Magazine. 18 February 2015.
7. Book: Doc Searls . The Intention Economy: When Customers Take Charge . Harvard Business Press . 2012 . 978-1-4221-5852-4 . 257 .
8. https://www.researchgate.net/figure/271929362_fig1_FIGURE-1-Amara's-law-of-correlation-for-nanotechnology-showing-nanohazards-in-long-run Context
9. http://dblp.org/pid/163/7427 Roy Amara