Ronald J. Stouffer Explained

Ronald J. Stouffer
Education:Pennsylvania State University
Workplaces:GFDL, NOAA, Princeton University, University of Arizona

Ronald J. Stouffer is a meteorologist and adjunct professor at the University of Arizona,[1] formerly Senior Research Climatologist and head of the Climate and Ecosystems Group at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), part of NOAA. He has also served on the faculty of Princeton University.[2]

Stouffer is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society and the American Geophysical Union, to which he was elected “for his path-breaking development of coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models and their use in research on the oceans’ role in climate change”. With 2021 Nobel laureate Syukuro Manabe, Stouffer developed the first models to couple the atmosphere and ocean to create global climate warming projections.[3] He is recognized for the accuracy of his models.[4] He has published at least 220 papers on climate change,[5] and has been recognized as a Highly Cited Researcher by Clarivate Analytics for multiple years.[6] He serves on the editorial board of Climate Dynamics.[7]

Stouffer has been both a member and chair of the Working Group on Climate Modeling of the World Climate Research Program (1993-), developing the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).Stouffer has been a contributing author to multiple Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports (1995, 2001, 2007), for which the IPCC won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize.[8]

Early life and education

Stouffer earned his BS (1976) and MS (1977) in Meteorology from Pennsylvania State University.

Career

Stouffer joined the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in 1977, remaining there until 2016.[5] From 2009 to 2012 he served as Group Head of the Climate and Ecosystems Group. From 2012 to 2016 Stouffer served as Senior Scientist of Earth System Modeling and Science.[9] [1]

As of 2016, Stouffer became an adjunct professor at the University of Arizona.[1]

Research

Stouffer collaborated with Syukuro Manabe, who created the first climate models to show the effects of carbon dioxide building up in the atmosphere.[3] [10] In the 1980s, Manabe and Stouffer tested a theory proposed by Wally Broecker, that Lake Agassiz, a giant meltwater lake, could have caused abrupt cooling by flooding into the Atlantic. They used ocean-coupled general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate the role of ocean flows in ice ages.[11] [12] In one of the first climate modeling studies to investigate the stability of thermohaline circulation in the North Atlantic. Manabe and Stouffer (1988) presented a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere model, and demonstrated that it was possible for the model to reach more than one equilibrium state. One state was similar to the current climate, while the second state showed the effects of warming flows of meltwater.[13] This Paleoclimate modelling associated changes in the circulation of the Atlantic Ocean over glacial–interglacial time periods with abrupt transitions in climate in the North Atlantic region.[14] Further work by Manabe and Stouffer (1995) showed that meltwater could also result in a series of sharp temperature rises and falls.[11] [12]

This research raised concerns about the stability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its potential to change abruptly and to dramatically impact climate. Manabe and Stouffer (1994)'s use of a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model suggested that anthropogenic-driven climate change could have significant impacts, an issue addressed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment.[15]

Stouffer and Manabe showed remarkable accuracy in predicting future world-wide global patterns of warming that match patterns of warming since observed.[16] Both "the projected surface pattern of warming, and the vertical structure oftemperature change in both the atmosphere and ocean, were realistic."[14] [17] The first large model that demonstrated polar sensitivity in temperature effects was Manabe and Stouffer (1980).[18] There is now high confidence that the Arctic surface will continue to warm at a higher rate than the global average during the 21st century.[14] As early as 1988 Manabe and Stouffer's models showed pronounced impacts on tropical rainfall, but the significance of that feature of the simulations was not focused on at the time.[19]

Stouffer has been a lead author, contributing author, and review editor on multiple reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, beginning with the IPCC First Assessment Report in 1990.[20] He has been a chapter author for Working Group 1 assessment reports in 1995,[21] 2001,[22] and 2007[23] and was an expert reviewer in 2013.[24] He has also worked on the Summary for Policymakers for Working Group I and the Summary for Policymakers for the Synthesis Report of the IPCC reports.

To write the IPCC reports, over 250 scientists and experts worldwide evaluate, synthesize, and comment on the published literature about climate change, summarizing the state of what is known from peer-reviewed studies. Their goal is to first determine consensus and then clearly identify places of disagreement and open questions. The IPCC reports clearly describe the scientific consensus that climate change is real, that it is caused by human activity, and that it urgently needs addressing. Reports go through an extensive reviewing process to create the final scientific assessment. The scientific assessment then becomes the basis for an accompanying Summary for Policymakers, approved by both contributing scientists and representatives from IPCC countries after intense scrutiny of the science and debate over what to do about the science.[25] The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) won the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize for its work, to which Stouffer contributed.[8]

Stouffer has been both a member and chair of the Working Group on Climate Modeling of the World Climate Research Program (1993-) and its subcommittee, the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).[25] As part of his work with CMIP, he designs experiments and systems to better understand and compare different climate models. This is useful for scientists who are developing models and understanding the science, and for the IPCC, which uses the information as part of its assessment process and as a consistent way of showing the results of different models.[25] [14] [26]

Awards and honors

Selected publications

External links

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Ron Stouffer: Retired Senior Research Meteorologist - Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, NJ . University of Arizona . 29 November 2022.
  2. News: McSweeney . Robert . In-depth: Scientists discuss how to improve climate models . 29 November 2022 . Carbon Brief . 17 January 2018 . en.
  3. Web site: Dunne . John . Earth System Science The Ronald J. Stouffer Symposium . GFDL/NOAA . 30 November 2022.
  4. Hausfather . Zeke . Drake . Henri F. . Abbott . Tristan . Schmidt . Gavin A. . Evaluating the Performance of Past Climate Model Projections . Geophysical Research Letters . 16 January 2020 . 47 . 1 . 10.1029/2019GL085378 . 214529561 . en . 0094-8276. 1912/25568 . free .
  5. Web site: Stouffer Ronald . ResearchGate Profile . 1 December 2022.
  6. Web site: GFDL Awards and Honors – Research, Development, and/or Application 2014 ‐2019 . GFDL Laboratory Review . 2019 . 22 November 2022.
  7. Web site: Climate Dynamics . Springer . 29 November 2022 . en.
  8. News: Schmidt . Gavin . Beyond the Winners, Nobel Prize for Climate Science Is a Victory for Many . 29 November 2022 . Scientific American . October 12, 2021 . en.
  9. Web site: STOUFFER, Ronald . Princeton University . 1 December 2022.
  10. Witt . Stephen . The Man Who Predicted Climate Change . 29 November 2022 . The New Yorker . 10 December 2021.
  11. Web site: Fighting for useful climate models . Simple Climate . 29 November 2022 . 30 November 2013.
  12. News: Guarino . Ben . Nobel Prize in physics awarded to trio who described climate change, other complex natural systems . 29 November 2022 . Washington Post . October 5, 2021.
  13. Weaver . A. J. . Bitz . C. M. . Fanning . A. F. . Holland . M. M. . THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION: High-Latitude Phenomena and the Difference Between the Pacific and Atlantic . Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences . May 1999 . 27 . 1 . 231–285 . 10.1146/annurev.earth.27.1.231 . en . 0084-6597.
  14. Book: IPCC . Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . 2021 . Cambridge University Press . Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA .
  15. Overpeck . Jonathan T. . Cole . Julia E. . Abrupt Change in Earth's Climate System . Annual Review of Environment and Resources . 1 November 2006 . 31 . 1 . 1–31 . 10.1146/annurev.energy.30.050504.144308 . en . 1543-5938. free .
  16. Web site: Mann . Michael . TESTIMONY OF DR. MICHAEL E. MANN DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR, OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE PENN STATE UNIVERSITY AND DIRECTOR, PENN STATE EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCE CENTER BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY. MARCH 29, 2017 . United States House of Representatives . 29 November 2022.
  17. Stouffer . Ronald J. . Manabe . Syukuro . Assessing temperature pattern projections made in 1989 . Nature Climate Change . March 2017 . 7 . 3 . 163–165 . 10.1038/nclimate3224 . en . 1758-6798.
  18. Web site: Weart . Spencer . Simple Models of Climate . The Discovery of Global Warming . American Institute of Physics . 2022 . 30 November 2022.
  19. Chiang . John C.H. . Friedman . Andrew R. . Extratropical Cooling, Interhemispheric Thermal Gradients, and Tropical Climate Change . Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences . 30 May 2012 . 40 . 1 . 383–412 . 10.1146/annurev-earth-042711-105545 .
  20. Book: F.P. . Bretherton . K. . Bryan . J.D. . Woods . Chapter 6: Time-Dependent Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change . Houghton . J.T. . Jenkins . G.J. . Ephraums . J.J. . Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment (1990) Report prepared for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change by Working Group I . 1990 . Cambridge University Press . Cambridge, Great Britain, New York, NY, USA and Melbourne, Australia .
  21. Kattenberg, A., F. Giorgi, H. Grassl, G.A. Meehl, J.F.B. Mitchell, R. Stouffer, T. Tokioka, A.J. Weaver and T.M.L. Wigley (1996). Chapter 6: Climate Models - Projections of Future Climate. In: The IPCC Second Scientific Assessment. Houghton et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  22. Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M., Noda, A., Senior, C. A., Raper, S., and Yap, K. S (2001). Chapter 9: Projections of Future Climate Change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Houghton et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
  23. Randall, D.A., R.A. Wood, S. Bony, R. Colman, T. Fichefet, J. Fyfe, V. Kattsov, A. Pitman, J. Shukla, J. Srinivasan, R.J. Stouffer, A. Sumi and K.E. Taylor, (2007). Chapter 8: Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Solomon et al. (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
  24. IPCC (2013). Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Stocker et al (eds.). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, US
  25. News: Kennedy . Caitlyn . What's it like to be an author for the IPCC report? NOAA Climate.gov . www.climate.gov . September 26, 2013 . en-US.
  26. Web site: Project Record: WCRP CMIP5: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 . CEDA Archive . 1 December 2022 . en.
  27. News: Alvich . Jason . Ronald J. Stouffer Honored by American Geophysical Union . 29 November 2022 . GFDL/NOAA . February 15, 2012.
  28. News: Climatologist Ronald Stouffer honored with Penn State Alumni Fellow Award . Penn State Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science . 2013 . en-us.
  29. Web site: GFDL Awards and Honors – Research, Development, and/or Application 2000-2014 . GFDL Laboratory Review . 2014 . 22 November 2022.
  30. Web site: GFDL Awards and Honors – Research, Development, and/or Application 1998-2009 (1d) . GFDL Laboratory Review . 2009 . 22 November 2022.
  31. Web site: Ronald J. Stouffer '76, '77g EMS . Penn State Alumni Association . 29 November 2022.
  32. News: Jensen . Mari N. . Antarctic Melting Slows Atmospheric Warming and Speeds Sea Level Rise . 30 November 2022 . University of Arizona News . 16 November 2018 . en.

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