2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
Country:Rhode Island
Type:presidential
Ongoing:no
Previous Election:2010 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
Previous Year:2010
Next Election:2018 Rhode Island gubernatorial election
Next Year:2018
Election Date:November 4, 2014
Image1:File:Rhode island governor visits NAVSTA Newport (cropped).jpg
Nominee1:Gina Raimondo
Party1:Democratic Party (United States)
Popular Vote1:131,899
Percentage1:40.70%
Nominee2:Allan Fung
Party2:Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:117,428
Percentage2:36.24%
Image3:File:Robert J. Healey.jpg
Nominee3:Robert J. Healey
Party3:Moderate Party of Rhode Island
Popular Vote3:69,278
Percentage3:21.38%
Governor
Before Election:Lincoln Chafee
Before Party:Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:Gina Raimondo
After Party:Democratic Party (United States)

The 2014 Rhode Island gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Rhode Island, concurrently with the election of Rhode Island's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Lincoln Chafee was eligible to run for re-election to a second term but decided to retire. In primary elections held on September 9, 2014, the Democrats nominated Rhode Island Treasurer Gina Raimondo and the Republicans nominated Cranston Mayor Allan Fung. Also on the ballot were Robert J. Healey of the Moderate Party and two Independent candidates. Raimondo won the election, becoming the first Democrat to be elected governor since Bruce Sundlun in 1992 (Chafee had been elected as an Independent in 2010, switching to the Democratic Party during his term). Raimondo became the first female governor in Rhode Island history.

Background

In the 2010 gubernatorial election, Republican incumbent Donald Carcieri was term-limited and unable to seek a third term in office. The Republicans nominated businessman John Robitaille and the Democrats nominated State Treasurer Frank T. Caprio. Also contesting the election were Moderate Party nominee Ken Block and Lincoln Chafee, who served as a Republican U.S. Senator from 1999 to 2007. After losing a bid for re-election in 2006, Chafee left the Republican Party and became an Independent, running for governor as such. After a close three-way race between Chafee, Robitaille and Caprio, Chafee won the election with a plurality, taking 36% to Robitaille's 34%, Caprio's 23% and Block's 6%.

After constant speculation during his term, Chafee officially joined the Democratic Party on May 30, 2013. He had previously indicated that he might run for re-election as an Independent or a Democrat.[1] In the face of low approval ratings, polling showing him trailing in both the Democratic primary and the general election, and with weak fundraising, Chafee announced on September 4, 2013 that he would not run for re-election.[2] [3] Chafee thus became just the fourth governor in the history of Rhode Island to decline to seek a second term, after Byron Diman in 1847, Royal C. Taft in 1889 and William S. Flynn in 1924.[4]

Democratic primary

Gina Raimondo and Angel Taveras announced their campaigns in late 2013 and the race initially seemed to be between the more fiscally moderate Raimondo and the more progressive Taveras. However, the entry of Clay Pell into the race complicated things. Unions who had criticised Raimondo for cutting pension benefits and investing in hedge funds during her tenure as Treasurer and for fundraising from Wall Street and national lobbyists were split between whether to back Taveras or Pell. A coalition of unions including firefighters, police, supermarket clerks and city employees backed Taveras, whereas the powerful teachers' unions backed Pell, unimpressed with Taveras' support for charter schools. Raimondo drew support from non-union and private sector workers and some private sector unions including iron workers. Pell spent over $3.4 million of his own money and ran a positive campaign, but he was much criticised for his inexperience and lack of ties to Rhode Island. Taveras emphasised his background as the son of poor Dominican immigrants to appeal to Latino and working-class voters. All three candidates agreed not to seek the endorsement of the state Democratic Party. Ultimately, Taveras and Pell took an almost equal share of the vote as progressive Democrats split their vote between the two, allowing Raimondo to win with a plurality. Raimondo won 36 of the state's 39 municipalities. Taveras won Central Falls and Pell won Burrillville and Foster.[5]

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Todd
Giroux		Clay
Pell		Gina
Raimondo		Angel
Taveras		Other/
Undecided
Fleming & AssociatesAugust 11–14, 2014503± 4.38%1.4%25.6% align=center32.2%26.8%12.9%
Fleming & AssociatesMay 27–30, 2014506± 4.38%1.6%11.5%29.2% align=center33.4%24.3%
Brown UniversityApril 3–5, 2014395± 4.9%—9.6% align=center29.4%25.8% align=center35.2%
Fleming & AssociatesFebruary 3–6, 2014503± 4.38%1.2%14.7%27% align=center31.2%25.9%
Brown UniversityOctober 2–5, 2013433± 4.5%—— align=center42%33.6%24.4%
Garin-Hart-Yang^September 10–12, 2013400± 5%——30% align=center49%21%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee		Ernie
Almonte		Gina
Raimondo		Angel
Taveras		Other/
Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013320± 5.5%22%11% align=center35%19%12%
—9% align=center44%35%13%

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Ken
Block		Allan
Fung		Other/
Undecided
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. *April 2014300± ? align=center46%37%17%
Brown UniversityApril 3–5, 201486± 10.6% align=center36%31.4% align=center38.5%
Fabrizio, Lee & Ass. *October 2013?± ?25% align=center53%22%

Results

Other parties

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Removed from ballot

Declined

General election

Campaign

Union voter dissatisfaction with Raimondo carried over into the general election, with one poll finding they backed Republican Allan Fung over her, 42% to 30%.[24] Moderate Party nominee Robert J. Healey won 22% of the vote, having spent $35.31 to receive 67,707 votes, or $0.0005 (five ten-thousandths of a dollar) for each vote he received.[25] He later joked, "It's amazing what $35 can do. As I've been saying, if we only spent $75, $80, we might've won the race."[26]

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
align=left The Cook Political Report[27] November 3, 2014
align=left Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] November 3, 2014
align=left Rothenberg Political Report[29] November 3, 2014
align=left Real Clear Politics[30] November 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Robert J.
Healey (M)		OtherUndecided
Brown UniversityOctober 25–26, 2014500± 4.4% align=center40%39%13%1%[31] 11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovOctober 16–23, 2014866± 6% align=center40%35%—4%21%
Brown UniversityOctober 14–17, 20141,129± 2.9% align=center42%31%9%1%[32] 18%
Fleming & AssociatesOctober 6–9, 2014505± 4% align=center42%36%8%1%[33] 14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGovSeptember 20–October 1, 2014724± 4% align=center41%38%—2%19%
Rasmussen ReportsSeptember 23–25, 2014750± 4% align=center42%37%—11%11%
Public Opinion Strategies*September 10–11, 2014500± 4.38%42%42%——16%
Brown UniversityOctober 2–5, 2013638± 3.9% align=center38%36%——27%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4% align=center46%27%—12%[34] 14%
With Raimondo
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4% align=center44%32%10%14%
With Taveras
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Angel
Taveras (D)		Ken
Block (R)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovJuly 5–24, 2014919± 3.4% align=center49%24%15%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Angel
Taveras (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4% align=center39%35%13%13%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Angel
Taveras (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		OtherUndecided
CBS News/NYT/YouGovAugust 18–September 2, 2014764± 4%33%33%—20%14%
Brown UniversityOctober 2–5, 2013638± 3.9% align=center42%33%——26%
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4% align=center37%31%15%—17%
With Chafee
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4%35% align=center39%13%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4%32% align=center36%16%15%
Four-way race
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4%22% align=center32%28%8%9%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4%21% align=center35%23%10%12%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Angel
Taveras (D)		Brendan
Doherty (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4%23%26% align=center31%10%10%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Lincoln
Chafee (I)		Angel
Taveras (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Public Policy PollingJanuary 28–30, 2013614± 4%20%26%26%13%14%
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		class=small Sample
size		Margin of
error		Gina
Raimondo (D)		Angel
Taveras (D)		Allan
Fung (R)		Ken
Block (I)		Undecided
Brown UniversityOctober 2–5, 2013638± 4.5% align=center27%21%19%9%24%

By county

align=center colspan=2Gina Raimondo
Democratic		align=center colspan=2Allan Fung
Republican		align=center colspan=2Robert J. Healey
Moderate		align=center colspan=2Othersalign=center rowspan=2Total
align=center CountyVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Bristol7,31239.88%4,80626.21%6,06033.05%1580.86%18,336
Kent20,17634.19%23,00938.99%14,93725.31%8931.51%59,015
Newport12,88843.74%10,12234.35%5,89820.01%5601.90%29,468
Providence73,26243.16%61,51936.24%32,08618.90%2,8831.70%169,750
Washington18,26138.46%17,97237.85%10,29721.68%9562.01%47,486

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

Counties that flipped from Independent to Democratic

By municipality

align=center colspan=2Gina Raimondo
Democratic		align=center colspan=2Allan Fung
Republican		align=center colspan=2Robert J. Healey
Moderate		align=center colspan=2Othersalign=center rowspan=2Total
align=center MunicipalityVotes%Votes%Votes%Votes%
Barrington3,56649.6%2,02228.1%1,55421.6%500.7%7,192
Bristol2,62835.7%1,95926.6%2,70936.8%751.0%7,368
Burrillville1,33428.6%1,86139.9%1,37129.4%1042.2%4,670
Central Falls1,35966.4%35817.5%28013.7%502.4%2,047
Charlestown1,17738.0%1,13736.7%72823.5%591.9%3,101
Coventry3,81230.2%4,97939.4%3,61028.6%2331.8%12,634
Cranston8,15930.2%14,85355.0%3,71613.8%2781.0%27,006
Cumberland4,66139.9%4,32537.0%2,47821.2%2201.9%11,684
East Greenwich2,36442.3%2,31541.4%84815.2%651.2%5,592
East Providence5,95843.5%3,71827.1%3,80427.8%2251.6%13,705
Exeter77128.4%1,14742.3%74227.3%532.0%2,713
Foster53428.0%73238.3%60431.6%402.1%1,910
Glocester96327.2%1,50342.5%1,01928.8%551.5%3,540
Hopkinton83630.9%1,08039.9%72326.7%682.3%2,707
Jamestown1,32546.2%90131.4%59020.6%631.9%2,879
Johnston3,27032.6%4,50244.9%2,12621.2%1341.5%10,032
Lincoln2,97436.2%3,24939.6%1,87022.8%1191.4%8,212
Little Compton67441.2%64839.7%28817.6%221.4%1,632
Middletown2,24141.9%1,90235.5%1,09020.4%1192.3%5,352
Narragansett2,39539.3%2,41039.6%1,19819.7%841.4%6,087
New Shoreham36550.3%17424.0%17323.8%141.9%726
Newport3,73449.4%2,31230.6%1,33117.6%1772.3%7,554
North Kingstown4,16637.6%4,30538.8%2,42221.8%1951.7%11,088
North Providence4,01336.1%4,50540.6%2,41421.7%1701.6%11,102
North Smithfield1,45633.2%1,87042.7%98622.5%681.6%4,380
Pawtucket7,14451.8%3,39124.6%2,96021.5%2842.1%13,779
Portsmouth2,82441.1%2,47736.1%1,42620.8%1362.0%6,863
Providence24,66265.0%8,44522.3%4,11610.8%7201.9%37,943
Richmond85129.5%1,15340.0%82528.6%531.8%2,882
Scituate1,17025.5%2,20348.1%1,14625.0%631.3%4,582
Smithfield2,58733.7%3,24142.2%1,72522.5%1191.6%7,672
South Kingstown4,60643.1%3,56233.3%2,29121.4%2332.2%10,692
Tiverton2,09039.8%1,88235.9%1,17322.4%1032.0%5,248
Warren1,11829.6%82521.9%1,79747.6%330.9%3,773
Warwick10,55935.0%11,38337.7%7,79525.8%4281.4%30,165
West Greenwich60525.0%1,09745.3%68428.3%331.3%2,419
West Warwick2,83634.6%3,23539.4%2,00024.4%1341.6%8,205
Westerly3,09441.3%3,00440.1%1,19516.0%1972.6%7,490
Woonsocket3,01840.6%2,76337.2%1,47119.8%1822.4%7,434

External links

Official campaign websites (Archived)

Notes and References

  1. Web site: RI Gov. Chafee open to running for 2nd term as Dem. December 14, 2012. December 18, 2012. Associated Press. Boston.com. David. Klepper.
  2. News: Why Lincoln Chafee's decision not to run for reelection is more good news for Democrats. September 4, 2013. September 6, 2013. The Washington Post. Sean. Sullivan.
  3. Web site: Gov. Chafee won't run for a second term. September 4, 2013. September 6, 2013. NBC News. Jessica. Taylor.
  4. Web site: Chafee Just 4th Rhode Island Governor Since 1790 to Pass On 2nd Term. September 6, 2013. September 6, 2013. Smart Politics. Eric. Ostermeier. https://web.archive.org/web/20131004070640/http://blog.lib.umn.edu/cspg/smartpolitics/2013/09/chafee_just_4th_rhode_island_g.php. October 4, 2013. dead.
  5. Web site: Dem divisions on display in Rhode Island race. September 8, 2014. September 25, 2015. Politico. Stephanie Simon.
  6. Web site: The Scoop: Giroux to Run for Gov, RI Tea Party Talks Obamacare. October 4, 2013. October 20, 2013. GoLocalProv. Anthony. Faccenda.
  7. Web site: Clay Pell, husband of Michelle Kwan, to run for Rhode Island gov. POLITICO. January 27, 2014. January 27, 2014. The Associated Press.
  8. Web site: Gina Raimondo announces she'll run for governor. December 18, 2013. December 18, 2013. WPRI-TV. Ted. Nesi. dead. https://web.archive.org/web/20131222140526/http://www.wpri.com/news/politics/state-politics/gina-raimondo-announces-she-will-run-for-ri-governor-in-2014. December 22, 2013. mdy-all.
  9. Web site: Providence Mayor Taveras confirms run for R.I. governor. October 26, 2013. October 28, 2013. The Providence Journal. Katherine. Gregg.
  10. Web site: Almonte to run for General Treasurer, not Governor. April 30, 2013. May 1, 2013. ABC 6. Dee. DeQuattro. May 7, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20130507042516/http://www.abc6.com/story/22118179/sources-almonte-to-run-for-general-treasurer. dead.
  11. Web site: Ernie Almonte abandons campaign for governor to run for RI treasurer. May 16, 2013. May 17, 2013. WPRI. Ted. Nesi. https://web.archive.org/web/20130613225646/http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/politics/state_politics/ernie-almonte-to-run-for-treasurer-not-governor. June 13, 2013. dead. mdy-all.
  12. http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/politics/state_politics/lt-gov-roberts-wont-challenge-chafee Lt. Gov. Roberts won't challenge Chafee
  13. Web site: Former Congressman Bob Weygand mulling run for governor - WPRI.com Blogs. September 12, 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20140912114933/http://blogs.wpri.com/2013/01/29/former-congressman-bob-weygand-mulling-run-for-governor/. September 12, 2014. dead.
  14. Web site: Ken Block, Moderate Party's 2010 candidate for governor, seeking GOP nomination in 2014. October 28, 2013. October 28, 2013. The Providence Journal. Katherine. Gregg.
  15. Web site: Mayor Fung Announces Bid For Governor. November 4, 2013. November 4, 2013. Woonsocket Patch. Rob Borkowski. https://web.archive.org/web/20131105155908/http://woonsocket.patch.com/groups/elections/p/mayor-fung-announces-bid-for-governor-woonsocket. November 5, 2013. dead.
  16. Web site: Warwick's Avedisian may run for lieutenant governor in '14. July 12, 2013. August 10, 2013. WPRI-TV. Ted. Nesi. https://web.archive.org/web/20130715230659/http://www.wpri.com/dpp/news/politics/state_politics/avedisian-may-run-for-ri-lt-governor-2014. July 15, 2013. dead. mdy-all.
  17. Web site: NEWS: Brendan Doherty will not seek office in 2014. May 17, 2013. Kalunian. Kim. May 20, 2013. https://web.archive.org/web/20131029202658/http://www.630wpro.com/common/page.php?pt=NEWS%20percent3A+Brendan+Doherty+will+not+seek+office+in+2014&id=13473&is_corp=0. October 29, 2013. dead.
  18. Web site: Dan McGowan on Twitter: "Barry Hinckley tells me he has no interest in running for Governor. Clears field for @peterbaptista". September 12, 2014.
  19. Web site: Robitaille says no plans to run for RI governor. October 18, 2013. October 20, 2013. Associated Press. NBC 10. https://web.archive.org/web/20131026160338/http://www.turnto10.com/story/23730689/robitaille-says-no-plans-to-run-for-ri-governor. October 26, 2013. dead. mdy-all.
  20. Web site: Moderate candidate Healey could impact governor's race. WPRI. Shaun. Towne. September 12, 2014. September 14, 2014. September 14, 2014. https://web.archive.org/web/20140914201432/http://wpri.com/2014/09/12/moderate-candidate-healey-could-impact-governors-race/. dead.
  21. Web site: 12 candidates file papers in RI governor's race. June 25, 2014. June 26, 2014. NBC 10 News.
  22. Web site: R.I. GOP challenges Healey as Moderate Party's 11th-hour candidate for governor . Providence Journal . Katherine Gregg . September 15, 2014 . September 24, 2014.
  23. Web site: The Saturday Morning Post: Quick hits on politics & more in RI. October 26, 2013. October 29, 2013. WPRI. Ted. Nesi. https://web.archive.org/web/20131028000131/http://blogs.wpri.com/2013/10/26/the-saturday-morning-post-quick-hits-on-politics-more-in-ri-88/. October 28, 2013. dead.
  24. Web site: Pension Cuts Cost Democrat Union Support in Rhode Island . Wall Street Journal . October 28, 2014 . November 7, 2014.
  25. Web site: Bob Healey spent $0.0005 for every vote he got . WPRI-12 . November 5, 2014 . November 7, 2014.
  26. Web site: Healey: It's amazing what $35 can do . WPRI-12 . November 5, 2014 . November 7, 2014.
  27. Web site: 2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014 . The Cook Political Report . September 3, 2018.
  28. Web site: The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . November 3, 2014 . September 3, 2018.
  29. Web site: 2014 Gubernatorial Ratings . Senate Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . September 3, 2018.
  30. Web site: 2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races . Real Clear Politics . September 3, 2018.
  31. Kate Fletcher (I) 1%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  32. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 1%
  33. Kate Fletcher (I) 0%, Leon Kayarian (I) 0%
  34. Ken Block (I)

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