Results breakdown of the 2021 Canadian federal election explained
The 2021 Canadian federal election was held on September 20, 2021, to elect members of the House of Commons to the 44th Canadian Parliament. The Liberal Party of Canada was returned once more with a minority of the seats, and the composition of the House saw very little change.
Summary
The election was described as being "like a game of tug of war in which the rope won."[1] The remarkable similarity of the seat results and those in 2019 may have reinforced voters' sentiments that the early election was unnecessary, and its meagre outcome has left its mark on the electorate. Both the Liberals and Conservatives saw marginal declines in their national shares of the votes.
Compared to 2019, Tory holds in Western Canada and Liberal ones in the GTA both declined, although one Conservative observer noted, "I am far more encouraged by the narrowing of margins in the suburbs, than I am discouraged or concerned by an Alberta MP only winning by 30,000 votes".[2]
The Green Party saw its share of the vote collapse to 2.3%, its lowest level since the 2000 federal election. Internal dissension and poor morale contributed to the decline, and Elizabeth May called for an inquiry to determine the underlying reasons for it.[3] Paul announced her resignation as party leader on September 27,[4] which took effect on November 14, after being officially accepted by the party's federal council.[5]
In late November, the Greens released a report indicating that they were facing imminent insolvency, and were considering closing the Ottawa office.[6] The party had lost 499 monthly donors since July 2021, and 6,259 members in the same length of time.[6]
The increase of the People's Party share from 1.6% to 4.9% may have cost the Conservatives at least ten ridings.[7] [8] [9] Votes obtained by individual PPC candidates were larger than the margin of victory in 21 ridings, where the Conservative candidate was in second place (12 in Ontario, five in BC, two in Alberta, one in Quebec and one in Newfoundland). Of those seats, 14 went to the Liberals, six to the NDP, and one to the Bloc. Observers noted that a significant amount of PPC support arose from non-Conservative voters.[10]
Eight ridings were won by a margin of 1% or less, and judicial recounts were requested in four of them. One riding flipped from the Bloc to the Liberals,[11] one Bloc victory was confirmed,[12] and two proceedings were terminated when it became obvious that no change would occur.[13] [14]
Synopsis of results
colspan="10" ↓ |
160 | 119 | 32 | 25 | 2 |
Liberal | Conservative | | | | |
Post-election pendulum
The robustness of the margins of victory for each party can be summarized in electoral pendulums. These are not necessarily a measure of the volatility of the respective riding results. The following tables show the margins over the various 2nd-place contenders, for which one-half of the value represents the swing needed to overturn the result. Actual seat turnovers in the 2021 election are noted for reference.
= seats that changed hands in the election
colspan="5" align="center" | Liberal (160 seats) |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5% or less |
| QC | | | BQ | - |
| ON | | | NDP | 0.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 0.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 0.6 |
| BC | | | NDP | 0.9 |
| NB | | | Con | 1.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 1.1 |
| ON | | | NDP | 1.1 |
| AB | | | Con | 1.3 |
| ON | | | NDP | 1.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 2.0 |
| BC | | | Con | 2.2 |
| NS | | | Con | 2.9 |
| NS | | | NDP | 3.0 |
| QC | | | BQ | 3.0 |
| BC | | | Con | 3.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 3.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 3.2 |
| ON | | | NDP | 3.3 |
| ON | | | Con | 3.6 |
| ON | | | Con | 3.8 |
| BC | | | Con | 3.9 |
| ON | | | Con | 4.4 |
| ON | | | NDP | 4.4 |
| NL | | | Con | 5.0 |
| ON | | | NDP | 5.0 |
| ON | | | Con | 5.0 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5%10% |
| QC | | | NDP | 5.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 5.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 5.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 5.5 |
| NL | | | Con | 5.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 5.7 |
| Terr | | | NDP | 5.9 |
| ON | | | Con | 6.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 6.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 6.2 |
| AB | | | Con | 6.3 |
| QC | | | BQ | 6.4 |
| QC | | | BQ | 6.5 |
| ON | | | Con | 6.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 7.0 |
| Terr | | | Con | 7.0 |
| QC | | | BQ | 7.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 8.0 |
| BC | | | Con | 8.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 8.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 8.4 |
| BC | | | Con | 8.5 |
| QC | | | BQ | 8.5 |
| PE | | | Con | 8.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 8.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 8.9 |
| ON | | | Con | 8.9 |
| BC | | | Con | 9.0 |
| ON | | | Con | 9.5 |
| BC | | | NDP | 9.7 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 10%20% |
| BC | | | NDP | 10.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 10.8 |
| NL | | | NDP | 10.9 |
| QC | | | BQ | 11.1 |
| NS | | | Con | 11.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 11.4 |
| ON | | | NDP | 11.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 12.0 |
| ON | | | Con | 12.1 |
| NL | | | Con | 12.3 |
| QC | | | BQ | 12.3 |
| ON | | | Con | 12.5 |
| ON | | | NDP | 12.5 |
| ON | | | Con | 12.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 13.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 13.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 13.3 |
| NB | | | Con | 13.5 |
| ON | | | NDP | 13.6 |
| MB | | | Con | 13.7 |
| NS | | | Con | 13.9 |
| BC | | | Con | 14.4 |
| BC | | | Con | 14.7 |
| ON | | | NDP | 14.7 |
| NS | | | Con | 14.9 |
| PE | | | Con | 15.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 15.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 15.4 |
| NS | | | Con | 15.5 |
| ON | | | Con | 15.5 |
| PE | | | Con | 15.6 |
| MB | | | Con | 15.8 |
| NL | | | Con | 15.8 |
| BC | | | NDP | 16.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 16.4 |
| BC | | | Con | 17.0 |
| ON | | | Con | 17.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 17.3 |
| ON | | | Con | 17.3 |
| ON | | | Con | 17.4 |
| MB | | | Con | 17.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 17.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 18.0 |
| ON | | | Con | 18.4 |
| QC | | | NDP | 19.4 |
| NS | | | NDP | 19.6 |
| PE | | | Con | 19.7 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins > 20% |
| ON | | | Con | 20.6 |
| QC | | | BQ | 20.8 |
| QC | | | BQ | 21.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 22.2 |
| ON | | | NDP | 22.3 |
| ON | | | Con | 22.8 |
| QC | | | Con | 22.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 23.1 |
| ON | | | Con | 23.5 |
| MB | | | NDP | 23.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 23.9 |
| NS | | | NDP | 24.3 |
| QC | | | BQ | 24.3 |
| ON | | | NDP | 24.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 24.6 |
| BC | | | NDP | 24.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 25.3 |
| ON | | | NDP | 25.4 |
| NB | | | Con | 25.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 26.0 |
| QC | | | BQ | 26.6 |
| QC | | | BQ | 26.6 |
| ON | | | Con | 27.0 |
| ON | | | Con | 27.5 |
| QC | | | NDP | 27.6 |
| BC | | | NDP | 27.9 |
| NB | | | Con | 29.4 |
| QC | | | BQ | 29.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 30.2 |
| QC | | | BQ | 30.4 |
| QC | | | NDP | 31.8 |
| NL | | | NDP | 32.8 |
| ON | | | Con | 32.2 |
| QC | | | Con | 33.2 |
| ON | | | NDP | 34.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 34.2 |
| QC | | | NDP | 34.6 |
| ON | | | Con | 34.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 35.2 |
| QC | | | Con | 35.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 35.9 |
| NB | | | Con | 36.2 |
| QC | | | BQ | 36.3 |
| ON | | | Con | 36.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 36.7 |
| QC | | | BQ | 36.7 |
| QC | | | Con | 37.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 39.8 |
| QC | | | Con | 40.6 |
| ON | | | Con | 41.7 |
| QC | | | BQ | 41.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 43.3 |
| QC | | | BQ | 43.7 |
| ON | | | Con | 47.7 |
| NB | | | Con | 51.0 |
| QC | | | Con | 58.9 |
colspan="5" align="center" | NDP (25 seats) |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5% or less |
| BC | | | Con | 1.7 |
| AB | | | Con | 3.4 |
| BC | | | Con | 3.5 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5%10% |
| BC | | | Con | 5.3 |
| BC | | | Con | 5.8 |
| BC | | | Con | 6.5 |
| ON | | | Con | 7.9 |
| BC | | | Lib | 9.9 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 10%20% |
| Terr | | | Lib | 11.8 |
| BC | | | Con | 12.2 |
| ON | | | Con | 12.7 |
| BC | | | Con | 14.4 |
| ON | | | Lib | 16.4 |
| BC | | | Lib | 16.6 |
| MB | | | Lib | 17.4 |
| ON | | | Con | 19.1 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins > 20% |
| BC | | | Lib | 20.7 |
| MB | | | Con | 21.6 |
| MB | | | Lib | 21.9 |
| ON | | | Lib | 22.2 |
| BC | | | Lib | 24.9 |
| BC | | | Lib | 25.1 |
| QC | | | Lib | 25.4 |
| AB | | | Con | 35.2 |
| BC | | | Lib | 36.6 | |
colspan="5" align="center" | Conservative (119 seats) |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5% or less |
| NL | | | Lib | 0.9 |
| MB | | | Lib | 1.0 |
| ON | | | Lib | 2.2 |
| BC | | | Lib | 3.5 |
| NS | | | Lib | 3.8 |
| AB | | | Lib | 3.9 |
| ON | | | Lib | 3.9 |
| NB | | | Lib | 4.4 |
| ON | | | Lib | 4.4 |
| BC | | | NDP | 4.8 |
| ON | | | Lib | 4.8 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5%10% |
| ON | | | Lib | 5.1 |
| SK | | | NDP | 6.1 |
| BC | | | NDP | 6.3 |
| QC | | | BQ | 7.6 |
| ON | | | NDP | 9.3 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 10%20% |
| ON | | | Lib | 10.2 |
| AB | | | NDP | 10.6 |
| ON | | | Lib | 11.0 |
| ON | | | NDP | 11.2 |
| NS | | | Lib | 11.8 |
| ON | | | Lib | 11.9 |
| ON | | | Lib | 12.3 |
| SK | | | NDP | 12.3 |
| MB | | | Lib | 12.4 |
| ON | | | Lib | 12.6 |
| SK | | | NDP | 12.6 |
| ON | | | NDP | 12.7 |
| BC | | | NDP | 14.0 |
| ON | | | Lib | 14.2 |
| ON | | | Lib | 15.0 |
| ON | | | Lib | 15.2 |
| ON | | | Lib | 15.6 |
| ON | | | Lib | 16.5 |
| AB | | | Lib | 16.8 |
| AB | | | Lib | 17.5 |
| ON | | | Lib | 17.7 |
| BC | | | Lib | 18.8 |
| ON | | | Lib | 18.8 |
| AB | | | NDP | 19.0 |
| NS | | | Lib | 19.1 |
| BC | | | NDP | 19.3 |
| BC | | | Lib | 19.3 |
| BC | | | Lib | 19.3 |
| ON | | | Lib | 19.5 |
| AB | | | NDP | 19.8 |
| SK | | | NDP | 19.8 |
| ON | | | Lib | 19.9 |
| QC | | | BQ | 19.9 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins > 20% |
| AB | | | Lib | 20.2 |
| ON | | | Lib | 21.0 |
| AB | | | Lib | 21.6 |
| SK | | | Lib | 21.9 |
| ON | | | Lib | 22.5 |
| SK | | | Lib | 23.0 |
| NB | | | Lib | 23.4 |
| BC | | | Lib | 23.7 |
| ON | | | Lib | 24.0 |
| ON | | | Lib | 24.0 |
| QC | | | BQ | 24.2 |
| ON | | | Lib | 24.7 |
| ON | | | Lib | 24.9 |
| ON | | | NDP | 25.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 25.1 |
| ON | | | Lib | 25.3 |
| BC | | | NDP | 26.1 |
| NB | | | Lib | 26.1 |
| ON | | | Lib | 26.3 |
| ON | | | Lib | 26.5 |
| NB | | | Lib | 27.1 |
| BC | | | NDP | 27.2 |
| ON | | | Lib | 27.8 |
| QC | | | BQ | 27.8 |
| QC | | | BQ | 27.8 |
| ON | | | NDP | 28.5 |
| ON | | | Lib | 29.2 |
| QC | | | BQ | 29.9 |
| QC | | | PPC | 30.1 |
| BC | | | NDP | 30.4 |
| ON | | | Lib | 30.4 |
| MB | | | PPC | 30.9 |
| QC | | | BQ | 31.2 |
| MB | | | Lib | 31.7 |
| ON | | | Lib | 32.0 |
| AB | | | Lib | 32.3 |
| AB | | | NDP | 34.7 |
| AB | | | Lib | 35.1 |
| QC | | | BQ | 36.2 |
| AB | | | NDP | 36.3 |
| AB | | | NDP | 37.0 |
| MB | | | NDP | 37.7 |
| MB | | | NDP | 39.1 |
| AB | | | NDP | 40.3 |
| AB | | | Lib | 40.4 |
| AB | | | NDP | 40.5 |
| SK | | | NDP | 41.0 |
| SK | | | NDP | 41.0 |
| AB | | | NDP | 42.4 |
| AB | | | NDP | 42.7 |
| AB | | | NDP | 43.9 |
| MB | | | NDP | 44.3 |
| BC | | | NDP | 47.2 |
| SK | | | NDP | 49.8 |
| AB | | | NDP | 50.0 |
| AB | | | NDP | 50.1 |
| AB | | | NDP | 50.3 |
| AB | | | NDP | 51.3 |
| AB | | | PPC | 53.5 |
| SK | | | NDP | 55.0 |
| AB | | | PPC | 55.1 |
| AB | | | NDP | 56.2 |
| SK | | | NDP | 56.5 |
| SK | | | NDP | 56.7 |
| AB | | | NDP | 58.1 |
| AB | | | PPC | 58.3 |
| AB | | | PPC | 59.8 |
| SK | | | NDP | 61.0 |
| AB | | | NDP | 61.5 |
| SK | | | PPC | 67.3 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Bloc Québécois (32 seats) |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5% or less |
| QC | | | Con | 0.2 |
| QC | | | Con | 2.0 |
| QC | | | NDP | 2.2 |
| QC | | | Lib | 2.9 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 5%10% |
| QC | | | Lib | 5.3 |
| QC | | | Lib | 6.0 |
| QC | | | Con | 6.5 |
| QC | | | Lib | 8.4 |
| QC | | | Lib | 9.1 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins 10%20% |
| QC | | | Lib | 10.5 |
| QC | | | Lib | 11.6 |
| QC | | | Lib | 11.9 |
| QC | | | Con | 12.8 |
| QC | | | Lib | 14.4 |
| QC | | | Lib | 17.9 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Margins > 20% |
| QC | | | Lib | 20.6 |
| QC | | | Lib | 23.0 |
| QC | | | Lib | 24.1 |
| QC | | | Lib | 24.1 |
| QC | | | Lib | 24.8 |
| QC | | | Con | 25.0 |
| QC | | | Lib | 25.2 |
| QC | | | Lib | 26.5 |
| QC | | | Lib | 27.8 |
| QC | | | Lib | 28.4 |
| QC | | | Lib | 29.4 |
| QC | | | Lib | 29.9 |
| QC | | | Con | 30.8 |
| QC | | | Lib | 32.3 |
| QC | | | Lib | 33.4 |
| QC | | | Lib | 37.9 |
| QC | | | Lib | 38.3 |
colspan="5" align="center" | Green (2 seats) |
| ON | | | Con | 10.4 |
| BC | | | Con | 15.1 | |
Vote shares
Trends in vote shares, turnouts and margins of victory
Results analysis
Party candidates in 2nd placeParty in 1st place | Party in 2nd place | Total |
---|
Lib | Con | NDP | BQ | Grn | PPC |
---|
| 104 | 32 | 24 | | | 160 |
58 | | 45 | 9 | | 7 | 119 |
12 | 13 | | | | | 25 |
25 | 6 | 1 | | | | 32 |
| 2 | | | | | |
Total | 95 | 125 | 78 | 33 | - | 7 | 338 | |
Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place resultsParties | Seats |
---|
| | 162 |
| | 58 |
| | 49 |
| | 44 |
| | 15 |
| | 7 |
| | 2 |
| | 1 |
Total | 338 | |
Party rankings (1st to 5th place)Party | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th |
---|
160 | 95 | 59 | 22 | 2 |
119 | 125 | 77 | 16 | - |
25 | 78 | 173 | 60 | 2 |
32 | 33 | 7 | 6 | - |
2 | - | 4 | 31 | 160 |
- | 7 | 17 | 196 | 78 |
- | - | 1 | 1 | 17 |
- | - | - | 3 | 16 |
- | - | - | - | 10 | |
Seats that changed hands
Elections to the 44th Parliament of Canada – seats won/lost by party, 2019–2021Party | 2019 | Gain from (loss to) | 2021 |
---|
Lib | Con | NDP | BQ | Grn | Ind |
---|
157 | | | 7 | (7) | 2 | | | | 1 | (1) | 1 | | 160 |
121 | 7 | (7) | | | | (2) | | | | | | | 119 |
24 | | (2) | 2 | | | | | | 1 | | | | 25 |
32 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 32 |
3 | 1 | (1) | | | | (1) | | | | | | | 2 |
1 | | (1) | | | | | | | | | | | - |
Total | 338 | 8 | (11) | 9 | (7) | 2 | (3) | - | - | 2 | (1) | 1 | - | 338 | |
The following seats changed allegiance from the 2019 election.
- Conservative to Liberal
- Conservative to NDP
- Liberal to Conservative
- Liberal to Green
- NDP to Liberal
- Green to Liberal
- Green to NDP
- Independent to Liberal
Defeated MPs
Of the 22 seats that changed hands, four were open seats where the MPs chose to retire, and one was where the MP crossed the floor in June and was re-elected under a new banner; the other 17 went down to defeat.
Open seats that changed hands
Of the 31 seats open at dissolution, four were won by a non-incumbent party:
Disavowed candidates
Below are the candidates who were disavowed by their parties and/or voluntarily ceased campaigning after candidate registration closed, remaining on the ballot with their original party affiliation.
MPs standing under a different political affiliation
Jenica Atwin, who was elected as the Green Party candidate in Fredericton in 2019, switched party affiliation to the Liberal Party in June 2021, and was re-elected as a Liberal. Two MPs elected in 2019 contested the election but left their party affiliation blank when they registered; however, both failed to be re-elected.
Significant results among independent and minor party candidates
Those candidates not belonging to a major party, receiving more than 1,000 votes in the election, are listed below:
Riding !! colspan="2"Candidate ! | Votes | Placed |
---|
| AB | | Tariq Elnaga | 1,475 | 6th |
| AB | | Derek Sloan | 2,020 | 5th |
| AB | | Jeff Golka | 2,393 | 6th |
| AB | | Orrin Bliss | 1,368 | 5th |
| AB | | Josh Wylie | 2,289 | 5th |
| AB | | Ambrose Ralph | 2,195 | 5th |
| AB | | Kim Siever | 1,179 | 5th |
| AB | | Geoff Shoesmith | 1,226 | 5th |
| AB | | Colin Krieger | 2,573 | 4th |
| AB | | Mark Wilcox | 1,640 | 5th |
| AB | | Jeff Dunham | 1,240 | 5th |
| AB | | Todd Muir | 1,761 | 5th |
| BC | | David Jeffers | 1,580 | 6th |
| MB | | Rick Loewen | 1,366 | 5th |
| NB | | Louis Bérubé | 1,277 | 5th |
| QC | | Dwayne Cappelletti | 1,277 | 5th |
| QC | | Chantale Giguère | 1,096 | 6th |
| QC | | André Blanchette | 1,215 | 5th |
| QC | | Raymond Arcand | 1,793 | 5th |
| QC | | Josée Joyal | 1,728 | 5th |
| QC | | Michel Leclerc | 1,165 | 7th |
| QC | | Mélanie Fortin | 1,089 | 6th |
| QC | | Ariane Croteau | 1,182 | 7th |
| QC | | Pierre Duval | 2,025 | 5th |
| QC | | Noémi Bureau-Civil | 1,467 | 5th |
| QC | | Marie-Eve Damour | 1,036 | 6th |
| QC | | Jean-Charles Cléroux | 1,790 | 5th |
| QC | | | 3,864 | 5th |
| QC | | Ginette Destrempes | 1,288 | 6th |
| SK | | Ken Rutherford | 2,162 | 3rd |
| SK | | Diane Pastoor | 1,053 | 5th |
| SK | | Mark Skagen | 1,360 | 5th |
| Terr | | | 1,791 | 4th |
| Terr | | Jonas Jacot Smith[22] | 2,639 | 4th | |
Results by province
Proportion of seats and votes won in each province/territory, by party (2021)Province | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Bloc | Green | People's |
---|
| | | | | |
---|
Ontario | | | | | |
2,532,446[23] | 2,249,485 | 1,151,788 | 143,218 | 352,076 |
Quebec | | | | | |
1,361,291 | 755,548 | 395,959 | 1,301,758 | 61,730 | 109,046 |
British Columbia | | | | | |
602,248 | 741,043 | 650,606 | 117,951 | 109,676 |
Alberta | | | | |
300,099 | 1,073,103 | 370,344 | 17,573 | 142,673 |
Manitoba | | | | |
159,498 | 224,168 | 131,830 | 9,518 | 43,603 |
Saskatchewan | | | | |
54,685 | 304,392 | 108,611 | 5,734 | 34,164 |
Nova Scotia | | | | | |
206,812 | 143,764 | 108,092 | 9,189 | 19,481 |
New Brunswick | | | | | |
168,817 | 133,794 | 47,564 | 20,505 | 24,370 |
Newfoundland and Labrador | | | | | |
103,062 | 70,213 | 37,550 | 0[24] | 5,142 |
Prince Edward Island | | | | | |
38,956 | 26,673 | 7,712 | 8,048 | 2,738 |
Northern Canada[25] | | | | | |
14,446 | 8,332 | 12,395 | 1,274[26] | 0[27] |
Total | | | | | | |
5,556,629 | 5,747,410 | 3,036,348 | 1,301,758 | 396,988 | 840,993 | |
Ontario
Results in Ontario (2021 vs 2019)Party | Seats |
---|
2019 | Gained | Lost | 2021 |
---|
79 | 2 | -3 | 78 |
36 | 3 | -2 | 37 |
6 | | -1 | 5 |
- | 1 | - | 1 |
Total | 121 | | |
Quebec
Results in Quebec (2021 vs 2019)Party | Seats |
---|
2019 | Gained | Lost | 2021 |
---|
35 | - | - | 35 |
32 | - | - | 32 |
10 | - | - | 10 |
1 | - | - | 1 |
Total | 78 | | |
British Columbia
Results in BC (2021 vs 2019)Party | Seats |
---|
2019 | Gained | Lost | 2021 |
---|
17 | - | -4 | 13 |
11 | 4 | - | 15 |
11 | 2 | - | 13 |
2 | - | -1 | 1 |
1 | - | -1 | - |
Total | 42 | | |
Alberta
Results in Alberta (2021 vs 2019)Party | Seats |
---|
2019 | Gained | Lost | 2021 |
---|
33 | - | -3 | 30 |
- | 2 | - | 2 |
1 | 1 | - | 2 |
Total | 34 | | |
Post-election analysis
Elections Canada
Elections Canada reported the following general characteristics of voter turnout in the election, compared to 2019:[28] [29]
Estimated voter turnout %, by age and sex, all Canada (2021 v 2019)Age group | All voters | Male | Female |
---|
2021 | 2019 | Change (pp) | 2021 | 2019 | Change (pp) | 2021 | 2019 | Change (pp) |
---|
First-time voters | 44.7 | 53.6 | 8.9 | 41.3 | 49.7 | 8.4 | 48.3 | 57.7 | 9.4 |
Not first time | 47.4 | 54.2 | 6.8 | 43.7 | 50.2 | 6.5 | 51.3 | 58.4 | 7.1 |
18 - 24 yrs | 46.7 | 53.9 | 7.2 | 43.1 | 49.9 | 6.8 | 50.5 | 58.0 | 7.5 |
25 - 34 yrs | 52.8 | 58.4 | 5.6 | 49.9 | 55.5 | 5.6 | 55.8 | 61.3 | 5.5 |
35 - 44 yrs | 59.0 | 64.6 | 5.6 | 57.5 | 62.7 | 5.2 | 60.5 | 66.4 | 5.9 |
45 - 54 yrs | 63.8 | 68.1 | 4.3 | 62.5 | 66.7 | 4.2 | 65.0 | 69.5 | 4.5 |
55 - 64 yrs | 68.3 | 73.3 | 5.0 | 66.7 | 71.9 | 5.2 | 69.8 | 74.6 | 4.8 |
65 - 74 yrs | 74.9 | 79.1 | 4.2 | 74.3 | 78.9 | 4.6 | 75.6 | 79.2 | 3.6 |
75 yrs + | 65.9 | 68.6 | 2.7 | 67.7 | 72.3 | 4.6 | 64.3 | 65.7 | 1.4 |
All ages | 62.2 | 67.0 | 4.8 | 60.6 | 65.5 | 4.9 | 63.8 | 68.5 | 4.7 | |
Together with Statistics Canada through its Labour Force Survey, analysis was undertaken in both 2019 and 2021 as to the reasons people gave for not voting:[30] [31]
Reasons for not voting, %, 2021 (vs 2019, where applicable)Reason for not voting | Total Non-Voters | Youth, aged 18–24 | Indigenous living off reserve | Immigrant (>10 years) | Immigrant (10 years or less) |
---|
2021 | 2019 | Change (pp) | 2021 | 2019 | Change (pp) | 2021 | 2019 | Change (pp) | 2021 | 2021 |
---|
Everyday life reasons | 43.3 | 45.9 | 2.6 | 42.1 | 45.7 | 3.6 | 38.4 | 40.8 | 2.4 | 48.6 | 44.7 |
Political reasons | 39.1 | 41.9 | 2.8 | 36.3 | 39.1 | 2.8 | 41.7 | 47.6 | 5.9 | 34.5 | 22.4 |
Electoral process reasons | 7.1 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 6.9 | 16.5 |
Reasons related to COVID-19 | 2.2 | New | 0.8 | New | N/A | 3.1 | N/A |
All other reasons | 8.3 | 6.8 | 1.5 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 1.6 | 11.3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 6.8 | 13.2 | |
From polling firms after Election Day
Per Ipsos
Ipsos 2021 election day poll[32] Social group | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Bloc | Green | PPC | Other |
---|
| | | | | | |
---|
Actual results |
---|
Total vote | 32 | 34 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Gender |
---|
Male | 31 | 37 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
Female | 33 | 32 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Age |
---|
1834 | 38 | 24 | 25 | 5 | 2 | 5 | - |
3554 | 32 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
55+ | 28 | 43 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | |
Notes and references
References
Notes and References
- News: Moscrop. David. September 21, 2021. Canada's election was a pointless exercise. At least politicians can get back to work now.. Washington Post.
- News: Tumilty. Ryan. October 8, 2021. Liberals gained seats in federal election, but lost support in some parts of the country . National Post.
- News: McKinley. Steve. Nuttall. Jeremy. September 21, 2021. What's next for Canada's Green party? Despite electing two MPs, the party saw its support drop to a 20-year low. The Toronto Star.
- News: Aiello. Rachel. September 27, 2021. Annamie Paul resigning as leader of the Green Party. September 27, 2021. CTV News.
- News: Thurton. David . November 16, 2021. Green Party accepts Annamie Paul's resignation as leader. CBC News. November 17, 2021.
- News: Thurton . David . December 3, 2021 . Threatened with insolvency, Green Party considers closing its head office . . December 3, 2021.
- News: Gillies. Rob. September 21, 2021. Trudeau's election bet fails, but Tory rival might lose job. AP News. Associated Press. September 25, 2021.
- News: Kustra. Tyler. September 21, 2021. Why did Trudeau win the Canadian election by such a slim margin?. The Washington Post. September 25, 2021.
- Web site: Emmanuel. Rachel. September 21, 2021. The People's party cost the Conservatives some ridings. September 25, 2021. iPolitics.
- News: Connolly. Amanda. Akin. David. September 22, 2021. Canada election: Did the PPC split the Conservative vote? Maybe — but it's not that simple. Global News. September 25, 2021.
- News: . October 6, 2021. Recount gives Châteauguay—Lacolle riding to Liberals by 12 votes . Montreal Gazette.
- News: Houle. Sébastien. October 7, 2021. La victoire du bloquiste René Villemure confirmée dans Trois-Rivières. Bloquiste René Villemure's victory confirmed in Trois-Rivières. French. Le Nouvelliste.
- News: . October 12, 2021. Le Bloc concède la victoire à la libérale Pascale St-Onge dans Brome-Missisquoi . The Bloc concedes victory to Liberal Pascale St-Onge in Brome-Missisquoi. French. Le Devoir.
- News: . October 15, 2021. Recount in Toronto's Davenport stopped as Liberal confirmed victor. Toronto Sun.
- The Green MP elected in 2019 defected to the Liberals months before the 2021 election.
- Web site: Liberal MP Raj Saini drops out of re-election campaign following misconduct allegations – National . 2021-09-18. Global News. en-CA . Ghosh . Twinkle . September 4, 2021.
- Web site: 2021-09-10. Conservative Party removes Beaches-East York candidate over social media posts. 2021-09-18. CP24. en.
- Robinson claims the Twitter account was fake and reported to Durham police in 2018 after the tweet was made.
- Web site: Two NDP candidates resign following Anti-Semitic online comments. 2021-09-18. CityNews . Toronto . Casaletto . Lucas . September 15, 2021.
- Web site: Toronto candidate asked by Liberals to 'pause' campaign amid news past sexual assault charge dropped . 2021-09-18. Global News. en-CA . Westoll . Nick . Khan . Ahmar . Rocca . Ryan . September 17, 2021.
- News: Green Party candidate withdraws in Ottawa Valley riding . 20 September 2021 . . 20 September 2021.
- News: Ritchie. Haley . August 18, 2021. Jonas Smith plans to run as independent in upcoming election. Yukon News.
- Web site: Canada. Elections. Election Night Results - Provinces & Territories. 2022-01-26. enr.elections.ca.
- The Greens did not run a candidate in Newfoundland and Labrador.
- (Yukon, Northwest Territories, and Nunavut).
- The Greens did not run a candidate in Nunavut.
- The People's Party did not run a candidate in any of the Canadian Territories.
- Web site: Estimation of Voter Turnout by Age Group and Gender at the 2021 General Election. Barisonzi. Marcello. Lachance. Jessica. elections.ca. July 3, 2022.
- Web site: Voter Turnout by Sex and Age. . 6 August 2020. elections.ca. June 7, 2021. this result differs from the Official Voting Results, which is based on registered electors. January 23, 2021. https://web.archive.org/web/20210123051605/https://elections.ca/content.aspx?section=res&dir=rec%2Feval%2Fpes2019%2Fvtsa&document=index&lang=e. live.
- Web site: Turnout and Reasons for Not Voting: October 21, 2019, Federal Election: Results from the Labour Force Survey Supplement. . 22 October 2020. elections.ca . July 3, 2022.
- Web site: Turnout and Reasons for Not Voting: September 20, 2021, Federal Election. . 27 June 2022. elections.ca. July 3, 2022.
- Web site: Detailed tables 1. . September 27, 2021. ipsos.com. Ipsos. 2.