Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Explained

Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership
Type:Free trade agreement
Date Signed:15 November 2020
Location Signed:Hanoi, Vietnam (virtual host)
Date Effective:1 January 2022
Signatories:15
Parties:14
Depositor:Secretary-General of ASEAN[1]
Language:English (lingua franca)

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) is a free trade agreement among the Asia-Pacific countries of Australia, Brunei, Cambodia, China, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.[2] The 15 member countries account for about 30% of the world's population (2.2 billion people) and 30% of global GDP ($29.7 trillion), making it the largest trade bloc in history.[3] Signed in November 2020, RCEP is the first free trade agreement among the largest economies in Asia, including China, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea.[4]

The RCEP was conceived at the 2011 ASEAN Summit in Bali, Indonesia, while negotiations formally launched during the 2012 ASEAN Summit in Cambodia.[5] [6] India, which took part in the initial negotiations but later decided to opt out, was invited to join the bloc at any time. Any other country or separate customs territory in the region can accede to the pact from 1 July 2023 onward.[7] [8] [9] The treaty was formally signed on 15 November 2020 at the virtual ASEAN Summit hosted by Vietnam. For the first ten ratifying countries, the trade pact took effect on 1 January 2022.[10] [11] [12]

The RCEP includes a mix of high-,[13] middle-,[14] and low-income countries.[15] It is expected to eliminate about 90% of the tariffs on imports between its signatories within 20 years of coming into force, and establish common rules for e-commerce, trade, and intellectual property.[4] Several analysts predicted that it would offer significant economic gains for signatory states, boost post-pandemic economic recovery, as well as "pull the economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, with China poised to take the lead in writing trade rules for the region," leaving the United States behind in economic and political affairs in the region. Reactions from others were neutral or negative, with some analysts saying that the economic gains from the trade deal would be modest. The RCEP was criticized by the Australian Institute of International Affairs and Public Services International, among others, which said that it ignored labour, human rights, and environmental sustainability issues.

Membership

Signatories

Flag Country
Capital
Area

Nominal GDP
[16] 		PPP GDP

HDI[17] Currency
Official languages Leaders
Australia
Commonwealth of Australia		7,692,024 25,698,3001,790,348 1,791,358 Australian dollar ($)
(AUD) 		None (de jure)
English (de facto)		Monarch

Charles III
Governor-General: Sam Mostyn
Prime Minister: Anthony Albanese

Brunei
Brunei Darussalam
Negara Brunei Darussalam
نڬارا بروني دارالسلام		5,765 459,50015,510 34,249 Brunei dollar ($)
(BND) 		Monarch
Cambodia
Kingdom of Cambodia
ព្រះរាជាណាចក្រកម្ពុជា

Royaume du Cambodge		181,035 15,626,44445,150 142,392 Cambodian riel (៛)
(KHR) 		Monarch

Norodom Sihamoni
Prime Minister: Hun Manet

China
People's Republic of China
中华人民共和国
Beijing 9,596,961 1,400,050,00018,532,633 35,291,015 Renminbi (Chinese yuan, ¥)
(CNY) 		General Secretary and President: Xi Jinping
Premier: Li Qiang
Indonesia
Republic of Indonesia
Republik Indonesia		1,910,931 270,203,9171,475,690 4,720,542 Indonesian rupiah (Rp)
(IDR) 		Indonesian
see also: Languages of Indonesia		President

Joko Widodo

Japan
日本国
Tokyo 377,930 126,760,0004,110,452 6,720,962 Japanese yen (¥)
(JPY) 		None (de jure)
Japanese (de facto)		Monarch

Naruhito
Prime Minister: Fumio Kishida

South Korea
Republic of Korea
대한민국
大韓民國
100,210 51,709,0981,760,947 3,057,995 South Korean won (₩)
(KRW) 		President

Yoon Suk-yeol
Prime Minister: Han Duck-soo

Laos
Lao People's Democratic Republic
ສາທາລະນະລັດ ປະຊາທິປະໄຕ ປະຊາຊົນລາວ

République démocratique populaire lao		236,800 7,123,20515,190 78,713 Lao kip (₭)
(LAK) 		General Secretary and President: Thongloun SisoulithPrime Minister

Sonexay Siphandone

Malaysia
مليسيا		Kuala Lumpur
Putrajaya (administrative) 		330,803 32,273,000445,519 1,305,942 Malaysian ringgit (RM)
(MYR) 		Malay
Monarch

Ibrahim
Prime Minister: Anwar Ibrahim

Myanmar
Republic of the Union of Myanmar
ပြည်ထောင်စု သမ္မတ မြန်မာနိုင်ငံတော်
676,578 54,836,00068,006 283,572 Burmese kyat (K)
(MMK) 		President

Myint Swe
Chairman of the State Administration Council and Prime Minister: Min Aung Hlaing

New Zealand
Aotearoa 		270,467 4,786,710257,626 285,582 New Zealand dollar ($)
(NZD) 		English
Māori
NZ Sign Language		Monarch

Charles III
Governor-General: Cindy Kiro
Prime Minister: Christopher Luxon

Philippines
Republic of the Philippines
Republika ng Pilipinas		300,000 109,048,269471,516 1,391,800 Philippine peso (₱)
(PHP) 		English
Filipino
see also: Languages of the Philippines		President

Bongbong Marcos

Singapore
Republic of Singapore
Republik Singapura
新加坡共和国

சிங்கப்பூர் குடியரசு
Singapore
(city-state) 		780 5,453,600 525,230 794,179 Singapore dollar ($)
(SGD) 		President

Tharman Shanmugaratnam
Prime Minister: Lawrence Wong

Thailand
Kingdom of Thailand
ราชอาณาจักรไทย
513,120 68,298,000548,890 1,644,322 Thai baht (฿)
(THB) 		Monarch

Maha Vajiralongkorn
Prime Minister: Srettha Thavisin

Vietnam
Socialist Republic of Viet Nam
Cộng hòa Xã hội chủ nghĩa Việt Nam 		331,699 96,208,984465,814 1,558,898 Vietnamese đồng (₫)
(VND) 		President

Tô Lâm
Prime Minister: Phạm Minh Chính

Ratifications

Signatory!Ratification!Effective
November 15, 2020November 2, 2021[18] January 1, 2022
October 11, 2021[19] [20] January 1, 2022
October 15, 2021[21] January 1, 2022
April 15, 2021[22] January 1, 2022
November 3, 2022[23] January 2, 2023
June 25, 2021[24] January 1, 2022
December 3, 2021[25] February 1, 2022
October 26, 2021[26] January 1, 2022
January 17, 2022[27] [28] March 18, 2022
August 4, 2021[29] delayed
November 2, 2021[30] January 1, 2022
April 3, 2023[31] June 2, 2023
April 9, 2021[32] [33] January 1, 2022
October 28, 2021[34] [35] January 1, 2022
October 29, 2021[36] January 1, 2022

Applicants

The trade agreement is open for new members 18 months after the partnership came into force. The following countries have applied for accession into the partnership:

The Republic of Chile has formally requested accession to the RCEP. Claudia Sanhueza, Undersecretary of International Economic Relations, delivered the request letter to Satvinder Singh, Assistant Secretary General for the ASEAN Economic Community. [40] [41]

Potential applicants:

The following countries have been subject to media attention surrounding their potential involvement in the RCEP:

The British Foreign Affairs Committee urged the UK Government to assess membership of the RCEP, as part of the UK's 'Indo-Pacific tilt'.[42] [43]

Contents

The agreement is intended to reduce tariffs and red tape. It includes unified rules of origin throughout the bloc, which may facilitate international supply chains and trade within the region. It also prohibits certain tariffs. It does not focus on labour unions, environmental protection, or government subsidies.

The RCEP is not as comprehensive as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, another free trade agreement in the region that includes some of the same countries.[4] The RCEP "does not establish unified standards on labour and the environment, or commit countries to open services and other vulnerable areas of their economies."

The tariffs schedule just for Japan is 1,334 pages long.[44]

Projected value

The combined GDP of potential RCEP members surpassed the combined GDP of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) members in 2007. It was suggested that continued economic growth, particularly in China and Indonesia, could see total GDP in the original RCEP membership grow to over US$100 trillion by 2050, roughly double the project size of TPP economies.[45] On 23 January 2017, President Donald Trump signed a memorandum withdrawing the United States from the TPP, a move which was seen to improve the chances of success for RCEP.[46]

According to a 2020 projection, the agreement is expected to enlarge the global economy by US$186 billion.[47] According to Peter Petri and Michael Plummer of the Brookings Institution, the RCEP could add $209 billion annually to world incomes, and $500 billion to world trade by 2030, and that "new agreements will make the economies of North and Southeast Asia more efficient, linking their strengths in technology, manufacturing, agriculture, and natural resources." According to computer simulations in a related paper also by Petri and Plummer published by the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE), the RCEP will raise global national incomes in 2030 by an annual $147 billion and $186 billion respectively, "yield especially large benefits for China, Japan, and South Korea and losses for the United States and India, and "will be especially valuable because it strengthens East Asian interdependence, raising trade among members by $428 billion and reducing trade among nonmembers by $48 billion".[48]

The simulations in Petri and Plummer's PIIE paper showed that the RCEP and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) would together more than offset the global negative economic effects of the China-United States trade war, but not the individual losses of China and the United States. Moreover, the incremental value of the CPTPP will be reduced by the trade war (from $147 billion to $121 billion) while the value of RCEP will be increased (from $186 billion to $209 billion). The PIIE working paper also stated that "RCEP will be economically significant with or without India, and indeed more significant than the CPTPP, with especially important benefits for China, Japan, and Korea" and that "RCEP will reorient trade and economic ties away from global linkages toward regionally focused relationships in East Asia."[48]

According to the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the RCEP is "relatively comprehensive in coverage" and combines existing deals, which brings Asia a step closer to a region-wide trading bloc. The agreement further liberalises goods and services trade, establishes common rules of origin for all goods traded, establishes commitments regarding government procurement, and aims to establish open and competitive markets. Though the degree of liberalisation within RCEP is not as deep as in the CPTPP, RCEP members are projected to gain $174 billion in real income by 2030, equivalent to 0.4% of the members' aggregate GDP. China, Korea and Japan will benefit the most, with likely gains of $85 billion for China, $48 billion for Japan, and $23 billion for Korea. Other significant RCEP gains will accrue to Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam.[49] Due to their RCEP membership, Japan and Korea would accrue gains amounting to 1% of their GDP while Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam and Brunei would all accrue gains of 0.5% of GDP or higher.[50]

New Zealand's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade stated that the RCEP is projected to add $186 billion to the world economy and increase New Zealand's GDP by around $2.0 billion. The RCEP members took 56% of New Zealand's total exports, representing 61% of New Zealand's goods exports (worth $36.6 billion) and 45% of New Zealand's services exports (worth $11.8 billion). According to the ministry, "RCEP delivers improved market access for New Zealand services exporters and investors in some RCEP markets that go beyond existing FTAs. Under RCEP, New Zealand services exporters and investors will, for the first time, benefit from market access commitments from China and ASEAN countries that are not party to the CPTPP".[51] Following the signing of the RCEP, New Zealand and China signed a deal to further expand their existing free-trade agreement. The expanded deal provides for tariffs to be either removed or cut on many of New Zealand's mostly commodities-based exports, ranging from dairy to timber and seafood, while compliance costs will also be reduced. The deal also opens up sectors such as aviation, education and finance.[52]

Huang Qifan, former mayor of Chongqing, stated that with the implementation of RCEP, China and RCEP countries will form an increasingly close industrial chain and supply chain connection, and in the future, there will be a variety of production and marketing models such as "in China, for China", "in China, for RCEP", "in RCEP, for the world". At that time, China's large market superimposed RCEP large market, China's dual circulation superimposed RCEP great circulation, "will profoundly change the world industrial chain supply chain layout".[53]

History

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2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

Reactions

Positive

When the RCEP was signed, Chinese premier Li Keqiang declared it "a victory of multilateralism and free trade".[47] Singaporean prime minister Lee Hsien Loong called it "a major step forward for our region" and a sign of support for free trade and economic interdependence.[111] Vietnamese prime minister Nguyễn Xuân Phúc said the RCEP will be conducive to economic recovery and bring prosperity to enterprises and people in all countries concerned.[112] Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen stated that the RCEP has great potential to address major challenges as well as has a crucial role in maintaining prosperity and political stability in the region.[113]

Several analysts predicted that it would help stimulate the economies of signatory states amid the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as "pull the economic centre of gravity back towards Asia, with China poised to take the lead in writing trade rules for the region", leaving the U.S. behind in economic and political affairs.

Mohamed Azmin Ali, Minister of International Trade and Industry of Malaysia, said the RCEP would encourage local businesses to enter global markets and would increase Malaysia's exports. He stated that RCEP signatories would enjoy preferential treatment due to the removal of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers.

Joko Widodo, President of Indonesia, stated that the signing of the RCEP was a historic day that signalled Indonesia's strong commitment to multilateralism. Agus Suparmanto, Indonesian Minister of Trade, said that the RCEP could boost Indonesia's exports to signatory countries by 8-11% and boost investment into Indonesia by 18-22%, and expressed confidence that the trade pact would benefit Indonesian business.

Hiroaki Nakanishi, Chairman of the Japan Business Federation, said the RCEP will help expand trade and investment in the region, and will bring further prosperity and stability, which is very important for achieving a free and open international economic order.[114]

Moon Jae-in, the President of South Korea, praised the RCEP as an unprecedented mega regional trading agreement and expressed confidence that it will "contribute to the recovery of multilateralism and the development of free trade around the world, beyond the region". Moon also stated that he expects the RCEP to open the world's biggest e-commerce market.[115] The Korean Chamber of Commerce and Industry welcomed the conclusion of the RCEP, expecting that it would "expand a new free trade bloc and serve as the basis for revitalizing the Asia-Pacific regional economic markets". The RCEP will benefit Korean companies by removing tariffs on several Korean imports in signatory states, especially in steel, automobiles and electronics.[116]

Kishore Mahbubani, Singapore's former permanent representative to the United Nations and former President of the United Nations Security Council, stated that the "future of Asia will be written in four letters, RCEP" and that India did a major geopolitical favour to China by withdrawing from the RCEP, just as the United States did by withdrawing from the CPTPP. Mahbubani added that with India and the United States absent, "a massive economic ecosystem centered on China is evolving in the region".[117]

According to Peter Petri and Michael Plummer at the Brookings Institution, the agreement represented "a triumph of ASEAN's middle-power diplomacy" and would lead to significant increases in world incomes and trade by 2030, even though it "says nothing at all about labor, the environment, or state-owned enterprises". They added, "However, ASEAN-centered trade agreements tend to improve over time."

Criticism

In 2016, the Electronic Frontier Foundation described the first draft of RCEP's intellectual property provisions as containing "quite simply the worst provisions on copyright ever seen in a trade agreement." They praised the second draft for removing some of the most problematic provisions similar to the ones in the Trans-Pacific Partnership, but described as unnecessary the new broadcasting rights provision, which gives broadcasters exclusive control over content that has been broadcast, even if they do not hold any copyright in said content. They wrote that a prohibition on reproduction of broadcast content was "such an extreme proposal that it is currently considered off the table" in the proposed Protection of Broadcasts and Broadcasting Organisations Treaty.[118]

India pulled out of the deal in November 2019, primarily due to concerns of dumping of manufactured goods from China and agricultural and dairy products from Australia and New Zealand, potentially affecting its own domestic industrial and farming sectors.[119] Due to India's withdrawal, there are concerns that China may dominate RCEP.[111] ASEAN leaders stated that India was welcome to return and join the bloc. Any other state may join RCEP 18 months after it comes into force.[120]

The Wall Street Journal reported in November 2019 that the tariff-related liberalisations from RCEP would be modest, calling it a "paper tiger". A comprehensive study into the deal shows that it would add just 0.08% to China's 2030 GDP without India's participation.[121] [122]

Human rights groups said RCEP could negatively affect small farmers, lead to more land conflicts, and make workers in poorer countries worse off. Rashmi Banga, a senior economist at UNCTAD, said that implementing RCEP at a time of crisis will make poorer coumtries in Southeast Asia even more vulnerable, adding, "Most Asean nations will see rising imports and declining exports. That will worsen their balance of trade and weaken their fiscal position."[123]

Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull said that despite the "hoopla", the RCEP was "a really low-ambition trade deal that we shouldn't kid ourselves on", adding, "It's a very old fashioned trade deal. It's low ambition. It's been affected largely for strategic reasons."[124] [125]

CNBC reported that the economic benefits from RCEP would be modest and could take years to materialise, with analysts from Citi suggesting that RCEP was "a coup for China" non-economically. The Citi report also said that India is one of the biggest losers from RCEP, adding, "exclusion will likely make India less attractive as an alternative production base versus ASEAN."[126]

Indian external affairs minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said it is not in India's interest to join the RCEP, as the trade deal would have "fairly immediate negative consequences" for India's economy.[127] [128] Zia Haq, associate editor at Hindustan Times, said India has "rightly shunned" the RCEP because at the moment it cannot take advantage of free-trade agreements. He went on to say, "India fears the RCEP will also limit its policy-making room in areas such as foreign investment." He said that according to some analysts, there will be limited gains from the RCEP without India, which is Asia's third-largest economy.[129]

Yen Huai-shing, deputy director at the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research, wrote on Taipei Times that the RCEP is "not to have a strong impact" on Taiwan. She said that most observers did not expect the RCEP to provide a high degree of openness, and that it provides no dispute settlement mechanism when handling certain trade issues such as meat inspection regulations, adding, "In other words, they are more symbolic than binding."[130]

According to Patricia Ranald at the Australian Institute of International Affairs, RCEP has limited gains from trade and ignores labour, human rights, and environmental sustainability issues. She said, "Despite claims about the benefits of common standards, the RCEP has no commitments to internationally recognised labour rights and environmental standards which Australia and other RCEP governments have endorsed through the United Nations and the International Labour Organization."[131]

Salvatore Babones commented on Foreign Policy that, by 2030, the world's economy would be expected to grow around 40% and the RCEP may add 0.2% to it, the scale of a "rounding error". He said that some main exports to China, such as Japan's machinery and Australia's iron ore, are already tariff-free. Babones said that with the signing of RCEP, "China may score propaganda points by posing as the guardian of the international system, but the system itself is increasingly bypassing China."[132]

Some analysts and economists said the RCEP is unlikely to benefit its developing member countries in the short term. Kate Lappin, Asia Pacific regional secretary at Public Services International, said that the pact has no provisions for improving labour rights, adding, "The agreement might not be good for governments and workers, but still deliver profits for foreign investors."[133]

See also

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Final Provisions . . https://web.archive.org/web/20201210133152/http://fta.mofcom.gov.cn/rcep/rceppdf/d20z_en.pdf . 10 December 2020 . live .
  2. Web site: World Bank: RCEP Initiator is Indonesia, Not China . CNBC . 30 November 2020 . 30 November 2020 .
  3. News: . India stays away from RCEP talks in Bali . Nikkei Asian Review . Jakarta . 4 February 2020 . 4 February 2020 . 15 November 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201115174517/https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/India-stays-away-from-RCEP-talks-in-Bali . live .
  4. News: What is RCEP and what does an Indo-Pacific free-trade deal offer China? . 15 November 2020 . South China Morning Post . 12 November 2020 . en . 15 November 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201115174455/https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3109436/what-rcep-and-what-does-indo-pacific-free-trade-deal-offer . live .
  5. News: A trade pact nearly 10 years in the making: 5 things to know about RCEP . The Straits Times . 15 November 2020 . 15 November 2020 . 15 November 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201115174453/https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/a-trade-pact-nearly-10-years-in-the-making-5-things-to-know-about-rcep . live .
  6. Web site: RCEP: Challenges and Opportunities for India, 25 July 2013, RSIS, Singapore . rsis.edu.sg. 24 April 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20131230233448/http://www.rsis.edu.sg/publications/Perspective/RSIS1402013.pdf . 30 December 2013. dead. dmy-all.
  7. Web site: Asia-Pacific nations sign world's largest trade pact RCEP . CNA . 15 November 2020 . 15 November 2020 . 15 November 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201115174450/https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/rcep-trade-pact-asean-summit-singapore-china-13534960 . live .
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  13. Australia, Brunei, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore and South Korea
  14. China, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam
  15. Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar
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  18. Web site: Australia to become an original party to world's largest free trade agreement. Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade . 2 November 2021. 7 November 2021.
  19. Web site: Brunei becomes sixth country to ratify RCEP . 12 October 2021 . Ain Bandial . The Scoop . 7 November 2021.
  20. Web site: BRUNEI DARUSSALAM RATIFIES THE REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) AGREEMENT . Ministry of Foreign Affairs Brunei Darussalam . 2021-10-11. 2021-10-13.
  21. Web site: カンボジア、RCEP協定の批准および寄託手続きが完了 . 2021-10-26. ジェトロ . 井上良太 . 2021-10-26.
  22. Web site: 中国向东盟秘书长正式交存《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）核准书. 2021-04-16. 中華人民共和國商務部新聞辦公室. 2021-04-16. 中華人民共和國商務部公式サイト. 中華人民共和國商務部. zh-cn.
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  29. Web site: ＲＣＥＰ批准済み＝国軍「外相」. ja. NNA Asia. 2022-09-13. 2021-08-05.
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  34. Web site: Thailand deposited Instrument of Ratification of the RCEP Agreement . Permanent Mission of Thailand to ASEAN . 1 November 2021 . EN . 29 October 2021.
  35. News: 2021-11-01. Thailand ratifies RCEP pact. Bangkok Post. EN. 2021-11-01.
  36. Web site: Thailand deposited Instrument of Ratification of the RCEP with ASEAN Secretariat. 2021-11-05. EN. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kingdom of Thailand.. 2021-11-04.
  37. Web site: Bangladesh decides to join largest trade bloc . The Business Standard . en . 7 September 2021.
  38. Web site: Hong Kong applies to join RCEP trade agreement . Nikkei Asia.
  39. Web site: SL to join RCEP, world's largest free trade area . Daily Mirror - Sri Lanka.
  40. News: Chile inicia negociaciones con Indonesia para profundizar acuerdo comercial e ingresa solicitud de adhesión a tratado regional de países del Asia Pacífico y Oceanía. es. Chilean Government. 14 June 2024.
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