Reagan coalition explained

The Reagan coalition was the combination of voters that Republican Ronald Reagan assembled to produce a major political realignment with his electoral landslide in the 1980 United States presidential election. The coalition was possible because of Democrat Jimmy Carter's losses in most social-economic groups. In 1984, Reagan confirmed his support by winning nearly 60% of the popular vote and carried 49 of the 50 states.

The Reagan Democrats were members of the Democratic Party before and after the Reagan presidency, but voted for Reagan in 1980 and 1984 and for his vice president, George H. W. Bush, in 1988, producing their landslide victories. They were mostly white socially conservative blue-collar workers who lived in the Northeast and were attracted to Reagan's social conservatism on issues such as abortion and to his hawkish foreign policy. They did not continue to vote Republican in 1992 or 1996, causing the term to fall into disuse except as a reference to the 1980s. The term is not generally used to describe the white Southerners who permanently changed party affiliation from Democrat to Republican during Reagan's presidency. They have largely remained Republican to this day.

Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg analyzed white, largely unionized auto workers in suburban Macomb County, Michigan, just north of Detroit. The county voted 63% for John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election and 66% for Reagan in 1984. He concluded that Reagan Democrats no longer saw Democrats as champions of their middle class aspirations. They instead viewed the Democratic Party as working primarily for the benefit of others, especially African Americans and the very poor.

The Reagan coalition began to fall apart after 1988 when Reagan was ineligible for reelection and Bush won over Democrat Michael Dukakis. Bush lost over 5 million votes and 100 electoral votes in comparison to what Reagan won four years prior. In 1992, Bush faced a competitive primary competition with Pat Buchanan, still winning the Republican nomination with 72% of the vote. Bush went on to lose the general election against Democrat Bill Clinton, with exit polling showing Bush retaining 66% of the Republican vote, Clinton winning 12%, and independent candidate Ross Perot winning 21%. In 1996, Republican Bob Dole lost to Clinton, taking 68% of the Republican vote, improving on Bush's margin, while Clinton took 23% and Perot 7%.

Voter demographics

1980 and 1976 voter groups and presidential votes
% of the total 1980 vote
	Group	Carter (1980)	Reagan (1980)	Anderson (1980)	Carter (1976)	Ford (1976)
	Party
43	Democratic	65	26	6	77	22
23	Independent	30	54	12	43	54
28	Republican	11	84	4	9	90
	Ideology
18	Liberal	57	27	11	70	26
51	Moderate	42	48	8	51	48
31	Conservative	23	71	4	29	70
	Race
10	Black	82	14	3	82	16
2	Hispanic	54	36	7	75	24
88	White	36	55	8	47	52
	Sex
48	Female	45	46	7	50	48
52	Male	37	54	7	50	48
	Religion
46	Protestant	37	56	6	44	55
41	White Protestant	31	62	6	43	57
25	Catholic	40	51	7	54	44
5	Jewish	45	39	14	64	34
	Family income
13	Less than $10,000	50	41	6	58	40
15	$10,000–$14,999	47	42	8	55	43
29	$15,000–$24,999	38	53	7	48	50
24	$25,000–$50,000	32	58	8	36	62
5	Over $50,000	25	65	8	—	—
	Occupation
39	Professional or manager	33	56	9	41	57
11	Clerical, sales, white collar	42	48	8	46	53
17	Blue-collar	46	47	5	57	41
3	Agriculture	29	66	3	—	—
3	Unemployed	55	35	7	65	34
	Education
11	Less than high school	50	45	3	58	41
28	High school graduate	43	51	4	54	46
28	Some college	35	55	8	51	49
27	College graduate	35	51	11	45	55
	Union membership
28	Labor union household	47	44	7	59	39
62	No member of household in union	35	55	8	43	55
	Age
6	18–21 years old	44	43	11	48	50
17	22–29 years old	43	43	11	51	46
31	30–44 years old	37	54	7	49	49
23	45–59 years old	39	55	6	47	52
18	60 years or older	40	54	4	47	52
	Region
25	East	42	47	9	51	47
27	South	44	51	3	54	45
22	South (whites)	35	60	3	46	52
27	Midwest	40	51	7	48	50
19	Far West	35	53	9	46	51
	Community size
18	City over 250,000	54	35	8	60	40
53	Suburb/small city	37	53	8	53	47
29	Rural/town	39	54	5	47	53
Source:^[1]

See also

• Conservative coalition
• New Deal coalition
• Obama coalition

Further reading

• Ehrman, John. The Eighties: America in the Age of Reagan. (2005).
• Ferguson Thomas, and Joel Rogers, Right Turn: The Decline of the Democrats and the Future of American Politics 1986.
• Germond, Jack W. and Jules Witcover. Blue Smoke & Mirrors: How Reagan Won & Why Carter Lost the Election of 1980. 1981. Detailed journalism.
• Greenberg, Stan. Middle Class Dreams: The Politics and Power of the New American Majority (1985).
• Jensen, Richard J., Steven L. Piott, Christopher C. Gibbs; Grass Roots Politics: Parties, Issues, and Voters, 1854-1983 Greenwood Press, 1983.
• Nelson Michael ed. The Elections of 1984 1985.
• Patterson, James T. Restless Giant: The United States from Watergate to Bush vs. Gore. (2005), standard scholarly synthesis.
• Pemberton, William E. Exit with Honor: The Life and Presidency of Ronald Reagan (1998).
• Troy, Gill. Morning in America: How Ronald Reagan Invented the 1980s (2004). Study of Reagan's image.

Notes and References

1. CBS News/The New York Times interviews with 12,782 voters as they left the polls as reported in The New York Times, November 9, 1980, p. 28. 1976 data are from CBS News interviews.