Random two-sided matching explained

A random two-sided matching is a process by which members of two groups are matched to each other in a random way. It is often used in sports in order to match teams in knock-out tournaments. In this context, it is often called a draw, as it is implemented by drawing balls at random from a bowl, each ball representing the name of a team.

Examples

The UEFA Champions League draw

A random two-sided matching occurs in the UEFA Champions League Round of 16.[1] [2] After some games are done within 8 groups, the group winner and the group runner-up proceed to the champions league. The UEFA rules say that each winner should be paired with a runner-up. Without further constraints, this problem could easily be solved by finding a random permutation of the winners. But UEFA rules impose two additional constraints: two teams from the same group cannot be paired, and two teams from the same association cannot be paired. Thus, the goal is to choose a random matching in an incomplete bipartite graph.

The UEFA mechanism makes several draws from different bowls. At the beginning, there are:

The draw proceeds as follows:

This procedure yields probabilities that are different than just choosing a matching at random; this creates a distortion in the matching probalities of different groups, which raises suspicion and conspiracy theories.

The FIFA draw

Another two-sided matching occurs in the FIFA World Cup. First, the runners-up are drawn in a random order. Then, each winner in turn is drawn, and it is matched to the first runner-up in the order, to which it can be matched according to the constraints.

This draw, too, produces distorted probabilities relative to the uniform-random matching.

See also

Notes and References

  1. Klößner . Stefan . Becker . Martin . 2013-09-01 . Odd odds: The UEFA Champions League Round of 16 draw . Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports . en . 9 . 3 . 249–270 . 10.1515/jqas-2013-0016 . 1559-0410.
  2. Boczoń . Marta . Wilson . Alistair J. . 2023-06-01 . Goals, Constraints, and Transparently Fair Assignments: A Field Study of Randomization Design in the UEFA Champions League . Management Science . en . 69 . 6 . 3474–3491 . 10.1287/mnsc.2022.4528 . 0025-1909.