| Rachel Bitecofer | |
| Birth Date: | 23 February 1977 |
| Education: | University of Oregon (BA) University of Georgia (MA, PhD) |
Rachel Bitecofer (born February 23, 1977)[1] [2] is an American political scientist.
Bitecofer graduated magna cum laude with honors from the University of Oregon where she earned a bachelor's degree in political science and earned her Ph.D. in political science and international affairs from the University of Georgia. In 2015 she became a lecturer at Christopher Newport University and assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy where she conducted polling. In 2019 she applied to convert her position to tenure track, which would lighten her teaching responsibilities, but was denied by the university. She then resigned her position and went to work for the Niskanen Center, a centrist think tank in Washington, D.C.[3]
Bitecofer's analysis has appeared on multiple media platforms including MSNBC and the New York Times. She wrote the 2017 book, The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election, on the election of Donald Trump and runs a podcast hosted by Substrack titled The Election Whisperer. She runs Strike Pac, a liberal super PAC.[4]
In 2017, Bitecofer released The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential Election, positing her own theory on how Trump was elected.
Bitecofer has been noted for accurately predicting the size of the "Blue Wave" in the 2018 United States midterm elections much earlier than other forecasters. She projected before the election that Democrats would gain 42 U.S. House seats in the election; the results saw Democrats gain 41 seats.[5] She also advanced the eventually-correct theory that Trump would lose reelection.[6]
Bitecofer has argued that differential turnout has an increasing role in elections. This view has been criticized by other political analysts like David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, with others such as Kyle Kondik of The Crystal Ball and Sam Wang offering more support.
Bitecofer has argued against Democrats nominating moderate "Blue Dog" candidates, pointing to liberal candidates Stacey Abrams and Beto O'Rourke losing their elections in 2018 by fairly narrow margins.
In July 2019, Bitecofer, like many analysts, accurately predicted that President Trump would lose the 2020 election.[7] [8] [9] Bitecofer argued that the 2020 electorate would see the return of voters who were unmotivated to vote in 2016.