Pre-election pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election explained

The following is a Mackerras pendulum for the 2019 New South Wales state election.^[1]

"Safe" seats require a swing of more than 10 points to change, "fairly safe" seats a swing of 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points.

All margins are Coalition vs. Labor unless specified otherwise.

COLSPAN=4 align="center"	Liberal/National seats (52)
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="Blue"	Marginal
East Hills	Glenn Brookes	LIB	0.4 points
Upper Hunter	Michael Johnsen	NAT	2.2 points
Monaro	John Barilaro	NAT	2.5 points
Lismore	Thomas George	NAT	2.9 v GRN
Coogee	Bruce Notley-Smith	LIB	2.9 points
Tweed	Geoff Provest	NAT	3.2 points
Murray	Austin Evans	NAT	3.3 points v SFF
North Shore	Felicity Wilson	LIB	4.7 points v IND
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="Blue"	Fairly safe
Penrith	Stuart Ayres	LIB	6.2 points
Goulburn	Pru Goward	LIB	6.6 points
Oatley	Mark Coure	LIB	6.6 points
Holsworthy	Melanie Gibbons	LIB	6.7 points
Heathcote	Lee Evans	LIB	7.6 points
Bega	Andrew Constance	LIB	8.2 points
Kiama	Gareth Ward	LIB	8.7 points
Seven Hills	Mark Taylor	LIB	8.7 points
Myall Lakes	Stephen Bromhead	NAT	8.7 points
Terrigal	Adam Crouch	LIB	9.0 points
South Coast	Shelley Hancock	LIB	9.6 points
Mulgoa	Tanya Davies	LIB	9.7 points
Clarence	Chris Gulaptis	NAT	9.7 points
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue"	Safe
Tamworth	Kevin Anderson	NAT	10.0 points v IND
Manly	James Griffin	LIB	10.5 points v IND
Cootamundra	Steph Cooke	NAT	10.5 points
Oxley	Melinda Pavey	NAT	10.9 points
Ryde	Victor Dominello	LIB	11.5 points
Riverstone	Kevin Conolly	LIB	12.2 points
Parramatta	Geoff Lee	LIB	12.9 points
Barwon	Kevin Humphries	NAT	12.9 points
Miranda	Eleni Petinos	LIB	13.0 points
Albury	Greg Aplin	LIB	13.2 points
Coffs Harbour	Andrew Fraser	NAT	14.3 points
Bathurst	Paul Toole	NAT	15.8 points
Epping	Damien Tudehope	LIB	16.2 points
Wollondilly	Jai Rowell	LIB	17.3 points
Hawkesbury	Dominic Perrottet	LIB	17.8 points
Lane Cove	Anthony Roberts	LIB	17.8 points
Camden	Chris Patterson	LIB	18.3 points
Drummoyne	John Sidoti	LIB	18.8 points
Hornsby	Matt Kean	LIB	18.9 points
Port Macquarie	Leslie Williams	NAT	19.0 points
Dubbo	Troy Grant	NAT	20.4 points
Cronulla	Mark Speakman	LIB	20.9 points
Baulkham Hills	David Elliott	LIB	21.8 points
Vaucluse	Gabrielle Upton	LIB	22.9 points v GRN
Ku-ring-gai	Alister Henskens	LIB	23.0 points
Willoughby	Gladys Berejiklian	LIB	24.4 points v GRN
Wakehurst	Brad Hazzard	LIB	25.2 points
Pittwater	Rob Stokes	LIB	25.7 points v GRN
Northern Tablelands	Adam Marshall	NAT	27.1 points
Davidson	Jonathan O'Dea	LIB	28.8 points v GRN
Castle Hill	Ray Williams	LIB	29.4 points

COLSPAN=4 align="center"	Labor seats (34)
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red"	Marginal
The Entrance	David Mehan	ALP	0.4 points
Strathfield	Jodi McKay	ALP	1.8 points
Granville	Julia Finn	ALP	2.1 points
Prospect	Hugh McDermott	ALP	3.4 points
Port Stephens	Kate Washington	ALP	4.7 points
Rockdale	Steve Kamper	ALP	4.8 points
Auburn	Luke Foley	ALP	5.9 points
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red"	Fairly safe
Kogarah	Chris Minns	ALP	6.9 points
Campbelltown	Greg Warren	ALP	7.3 points
Newcastle	Tim Crakanthorp	ALP	7.4 points
Wollongong	Paul Scully	ALP	8.0 points v IND
Blue Mountains	Trish Doyle	ALP	8.1 points
Macquarie Fields	Anoulack Chanthivong	ALP	8.1 points
Wyong	David Harris	ALP	8.7 points
Londonderry	Prue Car	ALP	8.8 points
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red"	Safe
Summer Hill	Jo Haylen	ALP	10.5 v GRN
Maroubra	Michael Daley	ALP	10.8 points
Gosford	Liesl Tesch	ALP	12.5 points
Charlestown	Jodie Harrison	ALP	12.9 points
Swansea	Yasmin Catley	ALP	13.0 points
Maitland	Jenny Aitchison	ALP	13.8 points
Bankstown	Tania Mihailuk	ALP	14.0 points
Heffron	Ron Hoenig	ALP	14.1 points
Mount Druitt	Edmond Atalla	ALP	15.4 points
Shellharbour	Anna Watson	ALP	17.0 points
Cabramatta	Nick Lalich	ALP	17.2 points
Keira	Ryan Park	ALP	17.4 points
Fairfield	Guy Zangari	ALP	17.8 points
Wallsend	Sonia Hornery	ALP	20.8 points
Liverpool	Paul Lynch	ALP	20.9 points
Lakemba	Jihad Dib	ALP	21.6 points
Cessnock	Clayton Barr	ALP	22.0 points
Canterbury	Sophie Cotsis	ALP	27.8 Points v CDP
Blacktown	Stephen Bali	ALP	32.3 Points v CDP
COLSPAN=4 align="center"	Crossbench seats (7)
Orange	Philip Donato	SFF	0.1 points vs NAT
Ballina	Tamara Smith	GRN	3.1 points v NAT
Balmain	Jamie Parker	GRN	4.7 points v ALP
Sydney	Alex Greenwich	IND	8.1 v LIB
Newtown	Jenny Leong	GRN	9.3 points v ALP
Wagga Wagga	Joe McGirr	IND	9.6 points v LIB
Lake Macquarie	Greg Piper	IND	10.7 v ALP

Notes and References

Web site: Raue. Ben. Pendulum – NSW 2019. The Tally Room.