Pre-election pendulum for the 2013 Australian federal election explained

The following is a pendulum based on the outcome of the 2010 federal election and changes since, including the redistributions of seats in South Australia and Victoria. It is a Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras, which works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament (71 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Green, 1 KAP and 5 independent) according to the percentage point margin on a two-candidate-preferred basis.[1] The two-party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swings are never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's (AEC) classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2] The swings for South Australian and Victorian seats are notional, based on calculations by the AEC.[3]

Pendulum

Government seats
Marginal
Corangamite (Vic)Darren CheesemanALP50.28
Deakin (Vic)Mike SymonALP50.60
Greenway (NSW)Michelle RowlandALP50.88
Robertson (NSW)Deborah O'NeillALP51.00
Lindsay (NSW)David BradburyALP51.12
Moreton (Qld)Graham PerrettALP51.13
Banks (NSW)Daryl MelhamALP51.45
La Trobe (Vic)Laura SmythALP51.66
Petrie (Qld)Yvette D'AthALP52.51
Reid (NSW)John MurphyALP52.68
Lilley (Qld)Wayne SwanALP53.18
Brand (WA)Gary GrayALP53.33
Capricornia (Qld)Kirsten LivermoreALP53.68
Lingiari (NT)Warren SnowdonALP53.70
Page (NSW)Janelle SaffinALP54.19
Grayndler (NSW)Anthony AlbaneseALP54.23 v GRN
Eden-Monaro (NSW)Mike KellyALP54.24
Blair (Qld)Shayne NeumannALP54.24
Parramatta (NSW)Julie OwensALP54.37
Dobell (NSW)Craig Thomson[4] IND55.07 v LIB
Kingsford Smith (NSW)Peter GarrettALP55.16
Rankin (Qld)Craig EmersonALP55.41
Fremantle (WA)Melissa ParkeALP55.70
Oxley (Qld)Bernie RipollALP55.77
Chisholm (Vic)Anna BurkeALP55.78
Perth (WA)Stephen SmithALP55.88
Fairly safe
Hindmarsh (SA)Steve GeorganasALP56.08
Bass (Tas)Geoff LyonsALP56.74
Werriwa (NSW)Laurie FergusonALP56.75
Barton (NSW)Robert McClellandALP56.86
Richmond (NSW)Justine ElliotALP56.99
Braddon (Tas)Sid SidebottomALP57.48
Adelaide (SA)Kate EllisALP57.52
Bruce (Vic)Alan GriffinALP57.71
Batman (Vic)Martin FergusonALP57.75 v GRN
McMahon (NSW)Chris BowenALP57.81
Melbourne Ports (Vic)Michael DanbyALP57.89
Griffith (Qld)Kevin RuddALP58.46
Fowler (NSW)Chris HayesALP58.76
Watson (NSW)Tony BurkeALP59.14
Canberra (ACT)Gai BrodtmannALP59.15
McEwen (Vic)Rob MitchellALP59.18
Bendigo (Vic)Steve GibbonsALP59.42
Safe
Isaacs (Vic)Mark DreyfusALP60.41
Wakefield (SA)Nick ChampionALP60.53
Franklin (Tas)Julie CollinsALP60.82
Jagajaga (Vic)Jenny MacklinALP61.15
Ballarat (Vic)Catherine KingALP61.70
Makin (SA)Tony ZappiaALP62.00
Throsby (NSW)Stephen JonesALP62.11
Blaxland (NSW)Jason ClareALP62.23
Lyons (Tas)Dick AdamsALP62.29
Chifley (NSW)Ed HusicALP62.34
Hunter (NSW)Joel FitzgibbonALP62.48
Newcastle (NSW)Sharon GriersonALP62.49
Charlton (NSW)Greg CombetALP62.67
Shortland (NSW)Jill HallALP62.85
Cunningham (NSW)Sharon BirdALP63.17
Corio (Vic)Richard MarlesALP63.47
Hotham (Vic)Simon CreanALP63.96
Holt (Vic)Anthony ByrneALP63.97
Fraser (ACT)Andrew LeighALP64.20
Kingston (SA)Amanda RishworthALP64.55
Sydney (NSW)Tanya PlibersekALP67.07
Maribyrnong (Vic)Bill ShortenALP67.49
Very safe
Calwell (Vic)Maria VamvakinouALP70.06
Scullin (Vic)Harry JenkinsALP70.53
Port Adelaide (SA)Mark ButlerALP70.91
Lalor (Vic)Julia GillardALP72.12
Wills (Vic)Kelvin ThomsonALP73.53
Gorton (Vic)Brendan O'ConnorALP73.63
Gellibrand (Vic)Nicola RoxonALP74.13
Non-government seats
Marginal
Hasluck (WA)Ken WyattLIB50.57
Boothby (SA)Andrew SouthcottLIB50.62
Aston (Vic)Alan TudgeLIB50.67
Dunkley (Vic)Bruce BillsonLIB51.04
Brisbane (Qld)Teresa GambaroLNP51.13
Macquarie (NSW)Louise MarkusLIB51.26
Forde (Qld)Bert van ManenLNP51.63
Solomon (NT)Natasha GriggsCLP51.75
Casey (Vic)Tony SmithLIB51.86
Longman (Qld)Wyatt RoyLNP51.92
Herbert (Qld)Ewen JonesLNP52.17
Canning (WA)Don RandallLIB52.19
Dawson (Qld)George ChristensenLNP52.43
Swan (WA)Steve IronsLIB52.53
Bonner (Qld)Ross VastaLNP52.82
Macarthur (NSW)Russell MathesonLIB53.02
Bennelong (NSW)John AlexanderLIB53.12
O'Connor (WA)Tony CrookNWA53.56 v LIB
Flynn (Qld)Ken O'DowdLNP53.58
Sturt (SA)Christopher PyneLIB53.60
Fisher (Qld)Peter Slipper[5] IND54.13 v ALP
McMillan (Vic)Russell BroadbentLIB54.21
Leichhardt (Qld)Warren EntschLNP54.55
Dickson (Qld)Peter DuttonLNP55.13
Hughes (NSW)Craig KellyLIB55.17
Gilmore (NSW)Joanna GashLIB55.32
Paterson (NSW)Bob BaldwinLIB55.33
Higgins (Vic)Kelly O'DwyerLIB55.40
Stirling (WA)Michael KeenanLIB55.55
Wannon (Vic)Dan TehanLIB55.66
Fairly safe
Goldstein (Vic)Andrew RobbLIB56.01
Cowan (WA)Luke SimpkinsLIB56.29
Fairfax (Qld)Alex SomlyayLNP56.95
Ryan (Qld)Jane PrenticeLNP57.16
Mayo (SA)Jamie BriggsLIB57.29
Kooyong (Vic)Josh FrydenbergLIB57.45
Menzies (Vic)Kevin AndrewsLIB58.65
Hume (NSW)Alby SchultzLIB58.72
Forrest (WA)Nola MarinoLIB58.74
Pearce (WA)Judi MoylanLIB58.86
Flinders (Vic)Greg HuntLIB59.14
Cowper (NSW)Luke HartsuykerNAT59.27
Indi (Vic)Sophie MirabellaLIB58.99
Safe
Wright (Qld)Scott BuchholzLNP60.15
McPherson (Qld)Karen AndrewsLNP60.28
Hinkler (Qld)Paul NevilleLNP60.39
Bowman (Qld)Andrew LamingLNP60.39
Calare (NSW)John CobbNAT60.74
Grey (SA)Rowan RamseyLIB61.16
Moore (WA)Mal WasherLIB61.19
Gippsland (Vic)Darren ChesterNAT61.45
Tangney (WA)Dennis JensenLIB62.32
Cook (NSW)Scott MorrisonLIB62.66
Barker (SA)Patrick SeckerLIB63.01
Warringah (NSW)Tony AbbottLIB63.09
Durack (WA)Barry HaaseLIB63.67
North Sydney (NSW)Joe HockeyLIB64.06
Fadden (Qld)Stuart RobertLNP64.19
Farrer (NSW)Sussan LeyLIB64.51
Wentworth (NSW)Malcolm TurnbullLIB64.86
Wide Bay (Qld)Warren TrussLNP65.61
Mackellar (NSW)Bronwyn BishopLIB65.72
Curtin (WA)Julie BishopLIB66.19
Berowra (NSW)Philip RuddockLIB66.20
Mitchell (NSW)Alex HawkeLIB67.16
Moncrieff (Qld)Steven CioboLNP67.49
Riverina (NSW)Michael McCormackNAT68.17
Bradfield (NSW)Paul FletcherLIB68.18
Groom (Qld)Ian MacfarlaneLNP68.53
Parkes (NSW)Mark CoultonNAT68.86
Murray (Vic)Sharman StoneLIB69.58
Very safe
Maranoa (Qld)Bruce ScottLNP72.89
Mallee (Vic)John ForrestNAT73.26
Crossbench seats
Kennedy (Qld)Bob KatterKAP68.34 v LNP
Melbourne (Vic)Adam BandtGRN55.91 v ALP
Denison (Tas)Andrew WilkieIND51.21 v ALP
Lyne (NSW)Rob OakeshottIND62.73 v NAT
New England (NSW)Tony WindsorIND71.52 v NAT

See also

External links

Notes and References

  1. http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-15508-NAT.htm Two Candidate Preferred by Division: AEC
  2. http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2004-05/05rn25.htm Electoral matrix: APH
  3. Web site: National seat status . April 2013 . Australian Electoral Commission . 13 April 2013 . 5–6, 8.
  4. This seat is held by an Independent MP who was formerly a Labor MP but switched to Independent following allegations of criminal misconduct currently (Aug 2013) before the courts. It has a notional majority of Labor Party voters.
  5. This seat is held by an Independent MP, but has a notional majority of Liberal Party voters.