Post-election pendulum for the 2010 Australian federal election explained

See also: Australian federal election, 2010.

See also: House of Representatives results for the Australian federal election, 2010.

See also: Senate results for the Australian federal election, 2010.

See also: Members of the Australian House of Representatives, 2010–2013.

See also: Pre-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2013. The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2010 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 72 Labor, 72 Coalition, 1 Nationals WA, 1 Green and 4 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis.[1] The two party result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]

Government seats
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Marginal
Corangamite (Vic)Darren CheesemanALP50.41
Greenway (NSW)Michelle RowlandALP50.88
La Trobe (Vic)Laura SmythALP50.91
Robertson (NSW)Deborah O'NeillALP51.00
Lindsay (NSW)David BradburyALP51.12
Moreton (Qld)Graham PerrettALP51.13
Banks (NSW)Daryl MelhamALP51.45
Deakin (Vic)Mike SymonALP52.41
Petrie (Qld)Yvette D'AthALP52.51
Reid (NSW)John MurphyALP52.68
Lilley (Qld)Wayne SwanALP53.18
Brand (WA)Gary GrayALP53.33
Capricornia (Qld)Kirsten LivermoreALP53.68
Lingiari (NT)Warren SnowdonALP53.70
Page (NSW)Janelle SaffinALP54.19
Grayndler (NSW)Anthony AlbaneseALP54.23 v GRN
Eden-Monaro (NSW)Mike KellyALP54.24
Blair (Qld)Shayne NeumannALP54.24
Parramatta (NSW)Julie OwensALP54.37
Dobell (NSW)Craig ThomsonALP55.07
Kingsford Smith (NSW)Peter GarrettALP55.16
McEwen (Vic)Rob MitchellALP55.32
Rankin (Qld)Craig EmersonALP55.41
Hindmarsh (SA)Steve GeorganasALP55.70
Fremantle (WA)Melissa ParkeALP55.70
Oxley (Qld)Bernie RipollALP55.77
Perth (WA)Stephen SmithALP55.88
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Fairly safe
Chisholm (Vic)Anna BurkeALP56.11
Bass (Tas)Geoff LyonsALP56.74
Werriwa (NSW)Laurie FergusonALP56.75
Barton (NSW)Robert McClellandALP56.86
Richmond (NSW)Justine ElliotALP56.99
Braddon (Tas)Sid SidebottomALP57.48
Melbourne Ports (Vic)Michael DanbyALP57.56
Adelaide (SA)Kate EllisALP57.69
McMahon (NSW)Chris BowenALP57.81
Batman (Vic)Martin FergusonALP57.86 v GRN
Bruce (Vic)Alan GriffinALP58.12
Griffith (Qld)Kevin RuddALP58.46
Fowler (NSW)Chris HayesALP58.76
Watson (NSW)Tony BurkeALP59.14
Canberra (ACT)Gai BrodtmannALP59.15
Bendigo (Vic)Steve GibbonsALP59.53
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Safe
Franklin (Tas)Julie CollinsALP60.82
Isaacs (Vic)Mark DreyfusALP61.02
Jagajaga (Vic)Jenny MacklinALP61.52
Ballarat (Vic)Catherine KingALP61.70
Wakefield (SA)Nick ChampionALP61.95
Throsby (NSW)Stephen JonesALP62.11
Makin (SA)Tony ZappiaALP62.20
Blaxland (NSW)Jason ClareALP62.23
Lyons (Tas)Dick AdamsALP62.29
Chifley (NSW)Ed HusicALP62.34
Hunter (NSW)Joel FitzgibbonALP62.48
Newcastle (NSW)Sharon GriersonALP62.49
Charlton (NSW)Greg CombetALP62.67
Shortland (NSW)Jill HallALP62.85
Cunningham (NSW)Sharon BirdALP63.17
Holt (Vic)Anthony ByrneALP63.23
Hotham (Vic)Simon CreanALP63.50
Kingston (SA)Amanda RishworthALP63.91
Fraser (ACT)Andrew LeighALP64.20
Corio (Vic)Richard MarlesALP64.22
Maribyrnong (Vic)Bill ShortenALP66.86
Sydney (NSW)Tanya PlibersekALP67.07
Calwell (Vic)Maria VamvakinouALP69.72
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Very safe
Port Adelaide (SA)Mark ButlerALP70.03
Lalor (Vic)Julia GillardALP72.15
Gorton (Vic)Brendan O'ConnorALP72.16
Scullin (Vic)Harry JenkinsALP72.25
Wills (Vic)Kelvin ThomsonALP72.64
Gellibrand (Vic)Nicola RoxonALP73.90
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="gray" Independent seats − Committed to supporting Government on confidence and supply
Melbourne (Vic)Adam BandtGRN56.04 v ALP
Denison (Tas)Andrew WilkieIND51.21 v ALP
Lyne (NSW)Rob OakeshottIND62.73 v NAT
New England (NSW)Tony WindsorIND71.52 v NAT
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Non-government seats
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Marginal
Hasluck (WA)Ken WyattLIB50.57
Boothby (SA)Andrew SouthcottLIB50.75
Dunkley (Vic)Bruce BillsonLIB51.02
Brisbane (Qld)Teresa GambaroLNP51.13
Macquarie (NSW)Louise MarkusLIB51.26
Forde (Qld)Bert van ManenLNP51.63
Solomon (NT)Natasha GriggsCLP51.75
Aston (Vic)Alan TudgeLIB51.76
Longman (Qld)Wyatt RoyLNP51.92
Herbert (Qld)Ewen JonesLNP52.17
Canning (WA)Don RandallLIB52.19
Dawson (Qld)George ChristensenLNP52.43
Swan (WA)Steve IronsLIB52.53
Bonner (Qld)Ross VastaLNP52.82
Macarthur (NSW)Russell MathesonLIB53.02
Bennelong (NSW)John AlexanderLIB53.12
Sturt (SA)Christopher PyneLIB53.43
Flynn (Qld)Ken O'DowdLNP53.58
Fisher (Qld)Peter SlipperLNP54.13
Casey (Vic)Tony SmithLIB54.18
McMillan (Vic)Russell BroadbentLIB54.41
Leichhardt (Qld)Warren EntschLNP54.55
Dickson (Qld)Peter DuttonLNP55.13
Hughes (NSW)Craig KellyLIB55.17
Gilmore (NSW)Joanna GashLIB55.32
Paterson (NSW)Bob BaldwinLIB55.33
Stirling (WA)Michael KeenanLIB55.55
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Fairly safe
Cowan (WA)Luke SimpkinsLIB56.29
Goldstein (Vic)Andrew RobbLIB56.47
Higgins (Vic)Kelly O'DwyerLIB56.75
Fairfax (Qld)Alex SomlyayLNP56.95
Ryan (Qld)Jane PrenticeLNP57.16
Wannon (Vic)Dan TehanLIB57.29
Mayo (SA)Jamie BriggsLIB57.35
Kooyong (Vic)Josh FrydenbergLIB57.55
Menzies (Vic)Kevin AndrewsLIB58.72
Hume (NSW)Alby SchultzLIB58.72
Forrest (WA)Nola MarinoLIB58.74
Pearce (WA)Judi MoylanLIB58.86
Flinders (Vic)Greg HuntLIB59.11
Cowper (NSW)Luke HartsuykerNAT59.27
Indi (Vic)Sophie MirabellaLIB59.94
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Safe
Wright (Qld)Scott BuchholzLNP60.15
McPherson (Qld)Karen AndrewsLNP60.28
Hinkler (Qld)Paul NevilleLNP60.39
Bowman (Qld)Andrew LamingLNP60.39
Calare (NSW)John CobbNAT60.74
Grey (SA)Rowan RamseyLIB61.16
Moore (WA)Mal WasherLIB61.19
Gippsland (Vic)Darren ChesterNAT61.45
Tangney (WA)Dennis JensenLIB62.32
Cook (NSW)Scott MorrisonLIB62.66
Barker (SA)Patrick SeckerLIB62.88
Warringah (NSW)Tony AbbottLIB63.09
Durack (WA)Barry HaaseLIB63.67
North Sydney (NSW)Joe HockeyLIB64.06
Fadden (Qld)Stuart RobertLNP64.19
Farrer (NSW)Sussan LeyLIB64.51
Wentworth (NSW)Malcolm TurnbullLIB64.86
Wide Bay (Qld)Warren TrussLNP65.61
Mackellar (NSW)Bronwyn BishopLIB65.72
Curtin (WA)Julie BishopLIB66.19
Berowra (NSW)Philip RuddockLIB66.20
Mitchell (NSW)Alex HawkeLIB67.16
Moncrieff (Qld)Steven CioboLNP67.49
Riverina (NSW)Michael McCormackNAT68.17
Bradfield (NSW)Paul FletcherLIB68.18
Groom (Qld)Ian MacfarlaneLNP68.53
Parkes (NSW)Mark CoultonNAT68.86
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Very safe
Murray (Vic)Sharman StoneLIB70.35
Maranoa (Qld)Bruce ScottLNP72.89
Mallee (Vic)John ForrestNAT74.41
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="gray" Independent seats
O'Connor (WA)Tony CrookNWA53.56 v LIB
Kennedy (Qld)Bob KatterIND68.34 v LNP

External links

Notes and References

  1. http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseTppByDivision-15508-NAT.htm Two Candidate Preferred by Division: AEC
  2. http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2004-05/05rn25.htm Electoral matrix: APH