Post-election pendulum for the 2007 Australian federal election explained

See also: Pre-election pendulum for the Australian federal election, 2010.

See also: Results of the Australian federal election, 2007 (House of Representatives). The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. Designed for the outcome of the 2007 federal election, the pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in Parliament, 83 Labor, 55 Liberal, 10 National, and 2 independent, according to the percentage point margin on a two candidate preferred basis, as elected in 2007.[1] The two candidate result is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties in an election, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. Swing is never uniform, but in practice variations of swing among the Australian states usually tend to cancel each other out. Seats are arranged in safeness categories according to the Australian Electoral Commission's classification of safeness. "Safe" seats require a swing of over 10 per cent to change, "fairly safe" seats require a swing of between 6 and 10 per cent, while "marginal" seats require a swing of less than 6 per cent.[2]

COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Government seats
Australian Labor Party
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Marginal
Robertson (NSW)Belinda NealALP50.11
Flynn (Qld)Chris TrevorALP50.16
Solomon (NT)Damian HaleALP50.19
Corangamite (Vic)Darren CheesemanALP50.85
Bass (Tas)Jodie CampbellALP51.00
Hasluck (WA)Sharryn JacksonALP51.26
Bennelong (NSW)Maxine McKewALP51.40
Deakin (Vic)Mike SymonALP51.41
Braddon (Tas)Sid SidebottomALP51.44
Petrie (Qld)Yvette D'AthALP52.05
Page (NSW)Janelle SaffinALP52.36
Forde (Qld)Brett RaguseALP52.91
Dawson (Qld)James BidgoodALP53.21
Eden-Monaro (NSW)Mike KellyALP53.40
Longman (Qld)Jon SullivanALP53.57
Dobell (NSW)Craig ThomsonALP53.90
Leichhardt (Qld)Jim TurnourALP54.03
Kingston (SA)Amanda RishworthALP54.42
Blair (Qld)Shayne NeumannALP54.48
Franklin (Tas)Julie CollinsALP54.48
Bonner (Qld)Kerry ReaALP54.53
Melbourne (Vic)Lindsay TannerALP54.71 v GRN
Moreton (Qld)Graham PerrettALP54.75
Hindmarsh (SA)Steve GeorganasALP55.05
Brand (WA)Gary GrayALP55.62
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Fairly safe
Bendigo (Vic)Steve GibbonsALP56.13
Wakefield (SA)Nick ChampionALP56.59
Brisbane (Qld)Arch BevisALP56.76
Lindsay (NSW)David BradburyALP56.78
Parramatta (NSW)Julie OwensALP56.88
Macquarie (NSW)Bob DebusALP57.04
Melbourne Ports (Vic)Michael DanbyALP57.15
Lowe (NSW)John MurphyALP57.37
Chisholm (Vic)Anna BurkeALP57.38
Isaacs (Vic)Mark DreyfusALP57.69
Makin (SA)Tony ZappiaALP57.70
Ballarat (Vic)Catherine KingALP58.15
Bruce (Vic)Alan GriffinALP58.32
Adelaide (SA)Kate EllisALP58.53
Lilley (Qld)Wayne SwanALP58.59
Lyons (Tas)Dick AdamsALP58.78
Perth (WA)Stephen SmithALP58.85
Richmond (NSW)Justine ElliotALP58.87
Corio (Vic)Richard MarlesALP58.93
Jagajaga (Vic)Jenny MacklinALP58.98
Fremantle (WA)Melissa ParkeALP59.14
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Safe
Banks (NSW)Daryl MelhamALP61.08
Lingiari (NT)Warren SnowdonALP61.16
Holt (Vic)Anthony ByrneALP61.63
Rankin (Qld)Craig EmersonALP61.74
Canberra (ACT)Annette EllisALP61.82
Barton (NSW)Robert McClellandALP62.10
Griffith (Qld)Kevin RuddALP62.32
Capricornia (Qld)Kirsten LivermoreALP62.71
Charlton (NSW)Greg CombetALP62.87
Hotham (Vic)Simon CreanALP63.00
Kingsford Smith (NSW)Peter GarrettALP63.29
Prospect (NSW)Chris BowenALP63.46
Oxley (Qld)Bernie RipollALP64.13
Shortland (NSW)Jill HallALP64.74
Fraser (ACT)Bob McMullanALP65.07
Werriwa (NSW)Chris HayesALP65.24
Maribyrnong (Vic)Bill ShortenALP65.32
Lalor (Vic)Julia GillardALP65.53
Denison (Tas)Duncan KerrALP65.63
Newcastle (NSW)Sharon GriersonALP65.91
Hunter (NSW)Joel FitzgibbonALP65.92
Reid (NSW)Laurie FergusonALP66.80
Cunningham (NSW)Sharon BirdALP68.13
Fowler (NSW)Julia IrwinALP68.25
Blaxland (NSW)Jason ClareALP68.37
Calwell (Vic)Maria VamvakinouALP69.33
Sydney (NSW)Tanya PlibersekALP69.50
Port Adelaide (SA)Mark ButlerALP69.75
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="red" Very safe
Watson (NSW)Tony BurkeALP70.33
Chifley (NSW)Roger PriceALP70.66
Scullin (Vic)Harry JenkinsALP70.85
Gorton (Vic)Brendan O'ConnorALP71.22
Gellibrand (Vic)Nicola RoxonALP71.46
Wills (Vic)Kelvin ThomsonALP72.41
Throsby (NSW)Jennie GeorgeALP73.46
Grayndler (NSW)Anthony AlbaneseALP74.93
Batman (Vic)Martin FergusonALP75.95
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Non-government seats
Liberal/National coalition
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Marginal
McEwen (Vic)Fran BaileyLP50.01
Bowman (Qld)Andrew LamingLP50.04
Swan (WA)Steve IronsLP50.11
Dickson (Qld)Peter DuttonLP50.13
Herbert (Qld)Peter LindsayLP50.21
La Trobe (Vic)Jason WoodLP50.51
Macarthur (NSW)Pat FarmerLP50.72
Sturt (SA)Christopher PyneLP50.94
Cowper (NSW)Luke HartsuykerNP51.23
Stirling (WA)Michael KeenanLP51.29
Paterson (NSW)Bob BaldwinLP51.51
Hinkler (Qld)Paul NevilleNP51.69
Cowan (WA)Luke SimpkinsLP51.71
Hughes (NSW)Danna ValeLP52.16
Kalgoorlie (WA)Barry HaaseLP52.58
Boothby (SA)Andrew SouthcottLP52.93
Fairfax (Qld)Alex SomlyayLP53.01
Fisher (Qld)Peter SlipperLP53.10
Ryan (Qld)Michael JohnsonLP53.82
Wentworth (NSW)Malcolm TurnbullLP53.85
Dunkley (Vic)Bruce BillsonLP54.04
Gilmore (NSW)Joanna GashLP54.07
Hume (NSW)Alby SchultzLP54.16
Grey (SA)Rowan RamseyLP54.43
Greenway (NSW)Louise MarkusLP54.50
McMillan (Vic)Russell BroadbentLP54.79
Aston (Vic)Chris PearceLP55.05
North Sydney (NSW)Joe HockeyLP55.38
Canning (WA)Don RandallLP55.58
Forrest (WA)Nola MarinoLP55.83
Gippsland (Vic)Peter McGauranNP55.91
Casey (Vic)Tony SmithLP55.93
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Fairly safe
Menzies (Vic)Kevin AndrewsLP56.02
Goldstein (Vic)Andrew RobbLP56.05
Cook (NSW)Scott MorrisonLP56.57
Higgins (Vic)Peter CostelloLP57.04
Mayo (SA)Alexander DownerLP57.06
Wannon (Vic)David HawkerLP57.47
Groom (Qld)Ian MacfarlaneLP58.22
Flinders (Vic)Greg HuntLP58.25
Wide Bay (Qld)Warren TrussNP58.47
Lyne (NSW)Mark VaileNP58.58
Tangney (WA)Dennis JensenLP58.68
McPherson (Qld)Margaret MayLP58.83
Berowra (NSW)Philip RuddockLP58.94
Pearce (WA)Judi MoylanLP59.07
Moore (WA)Mal WasherLP59.17
Indi (Vic)Sophie MirabellaLP59.19
Barker (SA)Patrick SeckerLP59.45
Warringah (NSW)Tony AbbottLP59.50
Kooyong (Vic)Petro GeorgiouLP59.53
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Safe
Fadden (Qld)Stuart RobertLP60.20
Farrer (NSW)Sussan LeyLP61.17
Mitchell (NSW)Alex HawkeLP61.59
Calare (NSW)John CobbNP62.05
Mackellar (NSW)Bronwyn BishopLP62.42
Parkes (NSW)Mark CoultonNP63.04
Bradfield (NSW)Brendan NelsonLP63.45
Curtin (WA)Julie BishopLP63.57
Moncrieff (Qld)Steven CioboLP64.01
Maranoa (Qld)Bruce ScottNP64.44
Riverina (NSW)Kay HullNP66.23
O'Connor (WA)Wilson TuckeyLP66.55
Murray (Vic)Sharman StoneLP68.26
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="blue" Very safe
Mallee (Vic)John ForrestNP71.27
COLSPAN=4 align="center" bgcolor="gray" Independents
Kennedy (Qld)Bob KatterIND66.29 v ALP
New England (NSW)Tony WindsorIND74.33 v NP

Notes and References

  1. http://results.aec.gov.au/13745/website/HouseTppByDivision-13745-NAT.htm Two Party Preferred by Division
  2. http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/RN/2004-05/05rn25.htm Electoral matrix: 2004 federal election