| Polymarket | |
| Developer: | Shayne Coplan |
| Platform: | Ethereum |
| Language: | English |
| Genre: | Prediction market platform |
| License: | Free software (GPL) |
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that allows users to place bets on world events. Users buy and sell shares using cryptocurrency to bet on the likelihood of future events taking place.
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan,[1] Polymarket is an online prediction market platform that would allow users to trade on the outcome of world events.[2] In January 2022, the platform was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, alongside receiving a cease and desist order, following regulation violations including not registering as a Swap Execution Facility.[3] [4] According to the CFTC, Polymarket offered "substantial cooperation" throughout the investigation which resulted in the company receiving a lower fine.
In May 2022, Polymarket appointed J. Christopher Giancarlo, a former Commissioner of the CFTC, as chairman of its advisory board.[5] In May 2024, it was announced that Polymarket had raised $70 million across two rounds of funding.[6] The rounds included investments from Vitalik Buterin, the co-founder of Ethereum, and Founders Fund, a venture capital firm founded by Peter Thiel.
In June 2023, Mother Jones reported that interest around the company had increased after a tweet about the outcome of the Titan submersible went viral;[7] the premise of the bet was whether or not the submersible would be found by a certain date, rather than a wager on the fate of the passengers.[8] Polymarket had over 60 markets available at the time of the submersible wager, including the outcome of the Guatemalan presidential election and the likelihood of Twitter suing Meta, and the likelihood that Russia would use nuclear force.
In 2024, the outcome of U.S. elections became the most active market on the platform, with over $508 million (as of August 6, 2024) wagered on the presidential race between the Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Nate Silver, founder of polling analysis firm FiveThirtyEight, became an advisor to Polymarket in 2024.[9]