Political party strength in U.S. states explained

Political party strength in U.S. states is the level of representation of the various political parties in the United States in each statewide elective office providing legislators to the state and to the U.S. Congress and electing the executives at the state (U.S. state governor) and national (U.S. President) level.

History

Throughout most of the 20th century, although the Republican and Democratic parties alternated in power at a national level, some states were so overwhelmingly dominated by one party that nomination was usually tantamount to election. This was especially true in the Solid South, where the Democratic Party was dominant for the better part of a century, from the end of Reconstruction in the late 1870s, through the period of Jim Crow Laws into the 1960s. Conversely, the rock-ribbed New England states of Vermont, Maine, and New Hampshire were dominated by the Republican Party, as were some Midwestern states like Iowa and North Dakota.

However, in the 1970s and 1980s the increasingly conservative Republican Party gradually overtook the Democrats in the southeast. The Democrats' support in the formerly Solid South had been eroded during the vast cultural, political, and economic upheaval that surrounded the 1960s. By the 1990s, the Republican Party had completed the transition into the southeast's dominant political party, despite typically having fewer members due to the prevalence of Republican voting generational Democrats. In New England, the opposite trend occurred; the former Republican strongholds of Maine and Vermont became solidly Democratic, as did formerly Republican areas of New Jersey, New York, California, and Connecticut.

In the U.S. state legislative elections of 2010, the Republican Party held an outright majority of 3,890 seats (53% of total) compared to the Democratic party's 3,450 (47% of total) seats elected on a partisan ballot.[1] Of the 7,382 seats in all of the state legislatures combined, independents and third parties account for only 16 members, not counting the 49 members of the Nebraska Legislature, which is the only legislature in the nation to hold non-partisan elections to determine its members. As a result of the 2010 elections, Republicans took control of an additional 20 state legislative chambers, giving them majority control of both chambers in 25 states versus the Democrats' majority control of both chambers in only 17 states, with 7 states having split or inconclusive control of both chambers (not including Nebraska). Before the 2010 elections, it was Democrats who controlled both chambers in 27 states versus the Republican party having total control in only 14 states, with 8 states divided, and Nebraska being nonpartisan.[2]

Since this election, Republicans have maintained a majority of state legislative chambers and seats, as well as governorships nationwide. As of 2024, there are 23 Republican trifectas, 17 Democratic trifectas, and 10 divided governments with both parties holding either legislative chambers or the governorship. However, following the 2022 elections, Democratic trifectas represent a majority of the national population.[3]

Current party strength

Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI)

Another metric measuring party preference is the Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI). Cook PVIs are calculated by comparing a state's average Democratic Party or Republican Party share of the two-party presidential vote in the past two presidential elections to the nation's average share of the same. PVIs for the states over time can be used to show the trends of U.S. states towards, or away from, one party or the other.[4]

Gallup

On December 17, 2020, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrats, 25% identified as Republicans, and 41% as Independent.[5] Additionally, polling showed that 50% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 39% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents were asked, "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"

In 2018, the number of competitive states according to opinion polling dropped down to 10, the lowest number since 2008. From 2017 to 2018, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Pennsylvania moved from competitive to lean Democratic, while West Virginia, Louisiana, and Indiana moved from competitive to lean Republican, and Nebraska moved from lean Republican to competitive.[6]

As of 2018, Massachusetts was the most Democratic state, with 56% of residents identifying as Democrats, while only 27% of residents identified as Republicans. However, it is important to note that Washington D.C. (while not a state) has 3 electoral votes and 76% of residents identify as Democrats, while 6% identify as Republicans. Wyoming was the most Republican state, with 59% of residents identifying as Republican, and only 25% of residents identifying as Democrat.

Partisan lean of U.S. states according to Gallup polling
 Number of U.S. States
YearSolid DemLean DemCompetitiveLean GOPSolid GOPNet Dem
20082961014+30
200923101214+28
20101391855+12
201111715710+1
20121361939+7
201312519212+3
201411618510+2
201511316812−6
201613115714−7
201715415313+3
201814810513+4

Voter registration

The state Democratic or Republican Party controls the governorship, the state legislative houses, and U.S. Senate representation. Nebraska's legislature is unicameral (i.e., it has only one legislative house) and is officially non-partisan, though party affiliation still has an unofficial influence on the legislative process.

The simplest measure of party strength in a state voting population is the affiliation totals from voter registration from the websites of the Secretaries of State or state Boards of Elections for the 30 states and the District of Columbia that allow registered voters to indicate a party preference when registering to vote. 20 states do not include party preference with voter registration. The party affiliations in the party control table are obtained from state party registration figures where indicated.[7]

As of 2024, a plurality of voters in California, Nevada, New Mexico, Louisiana, Delaware, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, and Maine are Democratic, while a majority of voters in Maryland and Washington DC are Democratic. Meanwhile, a plurality of voters in Arizona, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Kentucky, West Virginia, and Florida are Republicans. A majority of voters in Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota, and Oklahoma are Republicans. In Oregon, Colorado, North Carolina, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Alaska, and New Hampshire, a plurality of voters are Independents. While in Massachusetts, a majority of voters are independents.[8]

Voter Registration Totals[9] ! Party name! Total
Democratic48,019,985
Republican35,732,180
Independent34,699,567
American Independent715,712
Libertarian710,123
Independence Party of New York388,779
Green240,198
Independent Party of Florida195,333
Independent Party of Oregon134,996
Constitution131,901
Independent Party of Louisiana110,653
Peace & Freedom110,576
Independent American Party58,331
Working Families55,352
United Independent20,976
Alaskan Independence18,983
Common Sense Party17,322
New Jersey Conservative16,104
Independent Party of Delaware9,807
Socialist Party USA9,198
Natural Law6,549
Reform5,900
Women's Equality4,468
Approval Voting4,046
Independent American Party of New Mexico3,889
Unity3,215
Better for America3,180
Oregon Progressive2,928
Working Class2,693
United Utah2,285
Party for Socialism and Liberation1,369
Bread and Roses1,127
Ecology Party of Florida1,108

Party strength by state

Local and regional political circumstances often influence party strength.

U.S. state party control as of

State2020 presidential
election 		GovernorState SenateState House Senior
U.S. Senator 		Junior
U.S. Senator 		U.S. House of Representatives
AlabamaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 27–8Republican 76–29RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 6–1
AlaskaRepublicanRepublicanCoalition 17–3Coalition 23–17RepublicanRepublicanDemocratic 1–0
ArizonaDemocraticDemocraticRepublican 16–14Republican 31–29IndependentDemocraticRepublican 6–3
ArkansasRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 29–6Republican 82–18RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 4–0
CaliforniaDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 32–8Democratic 62–18DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 40–12
ColoradoDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 23–12Democratic 46–19DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 5–3
ConnecticutDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 24–12Democratic 98–53DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 5–0
DelawareDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 15–6Democratic 26–15DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 1–0
FloridaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 28–12Republican 84–36Republican RepublicanRepublican 20–8
GeorgiaDemocraticRepublicanRepublican 33–23Republican 101–79DemocraticDemocraticRepublican 9–5
HawaiiDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 23–2Democratic 45–6DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 2–0
IdahoRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 28–7Republican 59–11RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 2–0
IllinoisDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 40–19Democratic 78–40DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 14–3
IndianaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 40–10Republican 70–30RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 7–2
IowaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 34–16Republican 64–36RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 4–0
KansasRepublicanDemocraticRepublican 29–11Republican 85–40RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 3–1
KentuckyRepublicanDemocraticRepublican 31–7Republican 80–20RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 5–1
LouisianaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 27–12Republican 71–33–1RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 5–1
MaineDemocratic/ Republican (2nd District)DemocraticDemocratic 22–13Democratic 81–68–2RepublicanIndependentDemocratic 2–0
MarylandDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 34–13Democratic 102–39DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 7–1
MassachusettsDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 36–4Democratic 134–25–1DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 9–0
MichiganDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 20–18Democratic 56–54DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 7–6
MinnesotaDemocratic (DFL)Democratic (DFL)DFL 34–33DFL 70–64Democratic (DFL)Democratic (DFL)Tied 4–4
MississippiRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 36–16Republican 79–41–2RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 3–1
MissouriRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 24–10Republican 111–52RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 6–2
MontanaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 34–16Republican 68–32DemocraticRepublicanRepublican 2–0
NebraskaRepublican/ Democratic (2nd District)RepublicanUnicameral Nonpartisan Legislature
(De facto Republican 32–17)		RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 3–0
NevadaDemocraticRepublicanDemocratic 13–8Democratic 28–14DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 3–1
New HampshireDemocraticRepublicanRepublican 14–10Republican 201–196–3DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 2–0
New JerseyDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 25–15Democratic 52–28DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 9–3
New MexicoDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 27–15Democratic 45–25DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 3–0
New YorkDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 42–21Democratic 101–49DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 16–10
North CarolinaRepublicanDemocraticRepublican 30–20Republican 72–48RepublicanRepublicanTied 7–7
North DakotaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 43–4Republican 82–12RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 1–0
OhioRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 26–7Republican 67–31DemocraticRepublicanRepublican 10–5
OklahomaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 40–8Republican 81–20RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 5–0
OregonDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 17–12–1Democratic 35–25DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 4–2
PennsylvaniaDemocraticDemocraticRepublican 28–22Democratic 102–101DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 9–8
Rhode IslandDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 33–5Democratic 65–10DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 2–0
South CarolinaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 30–16Republican 88–36RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 6–1
South DakotaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 31–4Republican 63–7RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 1–0
TennesseeRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 27–6Republican 75–24RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 8–1
TexasRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 19–12Republican 86–64RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 25–13
UtahRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 21–8Republican 61–14RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 4–0
VermontDemocraticRepublicanDemocratic 22–7–1Democratic 104–38–5–3IndependentDemocraticDemocratic 1–0
VirginiaDemocraticRepublicanDemocratic 21–19Democratic 51-49DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 6–5
WashingtonDemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 29–20Democratic 58–40DemocraticDemocraticDemocratic 8–2
West VirginiaRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 31–3Republican 89–11IndependentRepublicanRepublican 2–0
WisconsinDemocraticDemocraticRepublican 22–11Republican 64–35RepublicanDemocraticRepublican 6–2
WyomingRepublicanRepublicanRepublican 28–2Republican 57–5RepublicanRepublicanRepublican 1–0

State government

Historical party strength

The number of state legislatures controlled by each party.[10]

YearDemocratsRepublicansSplit
193821196
194021178
194219243
194419243
194617254
1948191611
195019216
195216264
195419207
195622195
195830711
196027156
196225176
196432610
196623169
196820208
197023169
197226167
19743748
197635410
197831117
198029155
198234114
1984261112
198628912
198829812
199030613
199225816
1994181912
1996201811
1998201712
2000161815
2002181714
2003162112
2004172111
200520209
200724169
2008231512
200927158
201027158
201115278
201215296
201317285
201417285
201511318
201611318
201712326
201813325
201918302
202019292
202118302
202217303
202319283
202420282

The state governorships controlled by each party.

YearDemocratsRepublicansIndependent
19222622
19232721
19242325
19262028
19271929
19281632
193024222
193126202
193236102
19343792
19363873
19373963
19382919
19402820
19422424
19432226
19442523
19462325
19472424
19482820
19502226
19521830
19531929
19542721
19562820
19583515
19603416
19623416
19643317
19662525
19672426
19681931
19691832
19702921
19713020
19723119
19733218
197436131
197637121
19783218
19793119
19802723
19823416
19833515
19843416
19862624
19882822
19892921
199028202
199230182
199329192
199419301
199518311
199617321
199817312
199918302
200019292
200121272
20022426
20042228
20062822
20082921
20092624
201026231
201120291
201220291
20132030
20142129
201518311
201618311
201715341
201816331
20192327
20202426
20212327
20222228
20232426
20242327

State government full or split control, by party.

YearDemocratsRepublicansSplit
197727122
197827122
197919526
198018527
198116826
198216826
198324422
198424422
198517429
198617429
198715728
198814630
198915530
199016529
199116331
199215332
199318329
199416430
199581527
199661430
199751233
199851332
199981527
200091625
200181428
200291229
200381230
200481230
200581230
200681230
2007151025
2008141026
2009181022
2010171023
2011112217
2012112415
2013132512
2014132413
201572419
201672320
201752520
201872518
2019142214
2020152114
2021152312
2022142313
2023172211
2024172310
Graphical summary

Notes and References

  1. Web site: Republicans Exceed Expectations in 2010 State Legislative Elections . . November 3, 2010 . 2014-12-03.
  2. Web site: Hansen. Karen . Red Tide: December 2010 – A GOP wave washed over state legislatures on Election Day . . December 2010 . 2014-12-03.
  3. News: Rakich . Nathaniel . 2022-11-17 . The Midterms Made State Governments Bluer . . 2022-11-17.
  4. Web site: Partisan Voter Index by State, 1994–2014 . The Cook Political Report . 2013 . 2014-12-23 . 2014-11-27 . https://web.archive.org/web/20141127052333/http://cookpolitical.com/file/filename.pdf . dead .
  5. Web site: Gallup Historical Trends: Party Affiliation. Gallup News. September 20, 2007. 2020-05-14. In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat or an independent?.
  6. Web site: Democratic States Exceed Republican States by Four in 2018. Gallup Inc.. 2019-02-22. Gallup.com. en-us. 2019-10-20.
  7. For example, for earlier 2014 registration figures, see: News: Blumenthal. Mark . Edwards-Levy. Ariel . HUFFPOLLSTER: A State-By-State Guide To Party Registration . . May 27, 2014 . 2014-12-23. .
  8. News: Partisan affiliations of registered voters . March 16, 2023 . 2023-03-16. .
  9. Winger . Richard . Chart on Page Five . Ballot Access News . 2021-12-01 . 37 . 7 . 3, 5.
  10. Web site: U.S. Census Bureau, The 2012 Statistical Abstract, The National Data Book, Elections: Gubernatorial and State Legislatures (see: Tables 416 and 418) . 260–261 . U.S. Census Bureau . August 2011 . 2020-05-14 . live . https://web.archive.org/web/20170322220556/https://www2.census.gov/library/publications/2011/compendia/statab/131ed/tables/election.pdf . 2017-03-22 .

This article is licensed under the GNU Free Documentation License. It uses material from the Wikipedia article "Political party strength in U.S. states".

Except where otherwise indicated, Everything.Explained.Today is © Copyright 2009-2024, A B Cryer, All Rights Reserved. Cookie policy.