2023 Polish parliamentary election explained

Country:Poland
Type:Parliamentary
Previous Election:2019 Polish parliamentary election
Previous Year:2019
Ongoing:no
Outgoing Members:9th term Sejm and 10th term Senate of Poland
Election Date:15 October 2023
Elected Members:10th term Sejm and 11th term Senate of Poland
Next Election:Next Polish parliamentary election
Next Year:Next
Registered:29,532,595
Turnout:21,966,891 (74.4%)
12.7pp
Module:
Embed:yes
Election Name:Sejm
Type:legislative
Seats For Election:All 460 seats in the Sejm
Majority Seats:231
Opinion Polls:Opinion polling for the 2023 Polish parliamentary election
Leader1:Mateusz Morawiecki
Party1:Law and Justice
Alliance1:United Right
Last Election1:235 seats, 43.6%
Seats1:194
Seat Change1: 41
Popular Vote1:7,640,854
Percentage1:35.4%
Swing1: 8.2pp
Leader2:Donald Tusk
Party2:Civic Platform
Alliance2:Civic Coalition
Last Election2:134 seats, 27.4%
Seats2:157
Seat Change2: 23
Popular Vote2:6,629,402
Percentage2:30.7%
Swing2: 3.3pp
Party3:PL2050 / PSL
Alliance3:Third Way
Last Election3:30 seats, 8.6%
Seats3:65
Seat Change3: 35
Popular Vote3:3,110,670
Percentage3:14.4%
Swing3: 5.8pp
Color3:3DB53A
Party4:NL
Alliance4:The Left
Last Election4:49 seats, 12.6%
Seats4:26
Seat Change4: 23
Popular Vote4:1,859,018
Percentage4:8.6%
Swing4: 4.0pp
Color4:AC145A
Leader5:Sławomir Mentzen
Krzysztof Bosak
Party5:NN / RN
Alliance5:Confederation
Last Election5:11 seats, 6.8%
Seats5:18
Seat Change5: 7
Popular Vote5:1,547,364
Percentage5:7.2%
Swing5: 0.4pp
Module:
Embed:yes
Election Name:Senate
Seats For Election:All 100 seats in the Senate
Majority Seats:51
Noleader:yes
Party1:Civic Coalition (Poland)
Last Election1:39
Seats1:41
Percentage1:28.91
Party2:United Right (Poland)
Last Election2:48
Seats2:34
Percentage2:34.81
Party3:Third Way (Poland)
Last Election3:3
Seats3:11
Percentage3:11.50
Party4:The Left (Poland)
Last Election4:2
Seats4:9
Percentage4:5.29
Party5:Independent (politician)
Last Election5:4
Seats5:5
Percentage5:5.66
Map Size:420px
Government
Before Election:Second Morawiecki cabinet
Before Party:PiS (ZP)
Posttitle:Government after election
After Election:Third Tusk cabinet
After Party:KOPSLPL2050NL

Parliamentary elections were held in Poland on 15 October 2023, per the Polish Constitution. Seats in both the lower house, the Sejm, and the Senate were contested. At the polls, a referendum - containing four questions concerning economic and immigration policy of the government - was also voted on.

In the previous 2019 Polish parliamentary election, the ruling right-wing Law and Justice Party (PiS) had held onto its majority in the Sejm with Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki forming a second government. The PiS sought to win a third term which would be unprecedented in Polish history. The opposition, including the Civic Platform Party and others, secured a Senate majority. In the lead-up to the 2023 elections, opposition leader and former prime minister, Donald Tusk, led the Civic Coalition political alliance in opposition to the PiS.

The United Right alliance placed first for the third straight election and won a plurality of seats but fell short of a Sejm majority. The opposition, consisting of the Civic Coalition, Third Way, and The Left, achieved a combined total vote of 54%, managing to form a majority coalition government.[1] [2] In the Senate, the opposition electoral alliance Senate Pact 2023 won a plurality of the vote and a majority of seats. Voter turnout was 74.4%, the highest in contested elections and the highest since the fall of the communist Polish People's Republic, beating previous records set in 1989 and 2019.

Background

See also: 2020–2021 women's strike protests in Poland and Polish cash-for-visa scandal.

2019 Polish parliamentary election

The 2019 parliamentary election saw a record high turnout, with over 60% of registered electors participating. It also saw the centre-left, in the form of Lewica, entering the Sejm after four years on the outside looking in. Conversely, the far right united under the Konfederacja (Kon) banner to enter one of the two chambers of parliament for the first time since the 2005 elections.[3]

Right-wing parties, coalesced around the ruling national-conservative Law and Justice (PiS) within the United Right (ZP) alliance, won the highest percentage of votes ever received since the complete return to democracy in 1991, maintaining their majority in the Sejm, but losing it in the Senate. The PiS party president, Jarosław Kaczyński, thus saw his position as the country's strongman strengthened, despite occupying no governmental position. This result saw the second reelection of a majority government since the fall of the Eastern Bloc. Despite not defeating PiS, the main opposition party, the liberal Civic Platform (PO), itself within the Civic Coalition (KO) alliance, progressed in the senate, though without winning a majority of seats on its own. The opposition altogether did win a majority of seats in the senate, thanks to Lewica, the Polish Coalition (PSL) and independent candidates' gains.[3] [4]

One month after the vote, the incumbent Prime Minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, formed his second government. Its composition showed the so-called "moderate" right strengthened, which Morawiecki was part of, alongside a weakening of the "radical" right, led by the Justice minister Zbigniew Ziobro. This strategy was mainly to appeal to the more moderate electorate for the 2020 Polish presidential election.[5] Morawiecki's government received the Sejm's confidence on 19 November with 237 votes for, 214 against and three abstentions.[6] [7]

2020 presidential election

The 2020 presidential election saw the reelection of incumbent president Andrzej Duda, himself a member of Law and Justice. Originally planned in May, the elections were very affected by the then ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The government's proposal to maintain the election in May but only through postal votes launched a strong polemic, with the opposition denouncing the unequal campaigning capacities of the incumbent president compared to other candidates within the context of the lockdown and quarantine measures. The election was then postponed to late June following a compromise within the ruling coalition and the opposition's approval, partly thanks to the latter's control of the Senate.[8]

Despite the pandemic, both rounds of voting saw higher turnouts, with Duda facing the Mayor of Warsaw, Rafał Trzaskowski, a member of Civic Platform. Duda beat Trzaskowski, gathering 51% of the votes against the latter's 49%. These results were the most closely fought presidential elections since the return of democracy.[9]

Duda's victory allows PiS take advantage from his presidential veto in case of an opposition victory in the legislative elections, with the opposition needing a three-fifths majority, which currently amounts to 276 seats, to override one.[10]

2023 Polish protests

See main article: 2023 Polish protests. In May 2023, a law previously passed by the Sejm with the votes of the governing parties came into force, which provides for the establishment of a commission that can, without a court order, exclude politicians from public office for a period of ten years if, in their opinion, the politician was influenced by Russian interests. According to the law, the commission must examine whether this applies to Polish government politicians from 2007 (after PiS' defeat in the 2007 election). According to critics, the law could have been used as an instrument to prohibit selected opposition politicians from taking part in the parliamentary elections.[11] Polish media therefore spoke of a "Lex Tusk" – a law aimed at the opposition leader and former prime minister Donald Tusk (2007–2014), who could have been excluded from the parliamentary elections in October 2023 as the potentially most promising opposition candidate.[12] PiS party circles repeatedly accused Tusk of making Poland dependent on energy imports from Russia during his term as head of government. The law drew strong criticism from the United States and the European Union, which expressed concern that the law jeopardized freedom and fairness in elections in Poland. President Duda then softened the law by introducing an amendment to the Sejm on 2 June 2023, which deprived the proposed commission of the previously planned right to impose a ban on political activity.[13]

On 4 June 2023 (the anniversary of the first partially free elections in Poland in 1989) according to organizers, citing the city administration, half a million people took part in a "Great March for Democracy" organized by Tusk's Civic Platform in Warsaw to protest against the law.[14] There were also protests with tens of thousands of participants in other cities, including Krakow, Szczecin and Częstochowa. The demonstration in Warsaw was joined by numerous civil rights movements, the Civic Platform spoke of the largest demonstration in Poland's history since the fall of communism in 1989. The protest march through the center of Warsaw was also led by the former Polish President Lech Wałęsa.[15] [16]

Electoral system

The President of Poland set the election day to be Sunday, 15 October 2023.[17] This date was consistent with requirements posed in Article 98 Section 2 of the Polish Constitution, whereby the election is to take place within the final 30 days of the current term of Parliament (ending 11 November 2023). The vote ought to be held on a non-working day – a Sunday or a public holiday. Other possible dates included 22 October 29 October, 1 November, 5 November and 11 November.[18]

The process of election for the Sejm is through party-list proportional representation via the D'Hondt method in multi-seat constituencies,[19] with a 5% threshold for single party (KW) and citizen committees (KWW) and an 8% threshold for coalitions (KKW). National minority committees, such as the German minority, can apply to be exempt from the nation-wide threshold, and in such case participate in the d'Hondt seat distribution within their constituency, in this specific case Opole, regardless of the national share of votes.[20] Contrary to popular belief, minority committees are not guaranteed seats in the parliament.[21]

Senators are elected by first-past-the-post method in 100 constituencies. Most of the opposition (Civic Coalition, New Left and Third Way) signed a so-called senate pact, under which the parties agreed to enter one commonly accepted candidate in each district.[22] This strategy has previously granted them 51 seats despite losing the Sejm.[23]

Lists

Electoral committees registered in all constituencies

ListIdeologyPolitical positionLeader(s)Parliamentary leader(s)2019 resultSeats before the electionCandidates
Votes (%)Seats in SejmSejm (list)Senate (list)SejmSenate
1BSNonpartisan Local Government Activists
Regionalism
Localism
Centre-leftN/A0.8%90240
2TDThird Way

Centrism
Christian democracy
Liberalism
Centre to centre-rightWładysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
Szymon Hołownia
Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz
Paulina Hennig-Kloska
8.6%91828
3NLNew Left

Social democracy
Progressivism
Centre-left to left-wingWłodzimierz Czarzasty
Robert Biedroń
Krzysztof Gawkowski
Marcelina Zawisza[24]
12.6%91214
4PiSLaw and Justice

National conservatismRight-wingJarosław Kaczyński
Mateusz Morawiecki (PM candidate)
Ryszard Terlecki43.6%91896
5KONConfederation Liberty and Independence

Libertarian conservatism
Polish nationalism
Right-wing to far-rightSławomir Mentzen
Krzysztof Bosak
Krzysztof Bosak6.8%91365
6KOCivic Coalition

LiberalismBig tentDonald TuskBorys Budka27.4%91949

Electoral committees registered in more than one constituency

ListIdeologyPolitical positionLeader
  1. of constituencies
Candidates
SejmSenate
7PJJThere is One Poland
Right-wing populism
Vaccine hesitancy
Far-rightRafał Piech395794
9RDiPPeace and Prosperity Movement
Populism
Economic nationalism
Big tentMaciej Maciak111553
10NKNormal Country
Anti-establishment
Right-wing populism
Right-wingWiesław Lewicki4611

Electoral committees registered in a single constituency

ListIdeologyPolitical positionLeaderParliamentary leader2019 resultCurrent number of seatsConstituencyCandidates
Votes (%)Seats in SejmSejm (list)Senate (list)SejmSenate
APAnti-party
Anti-establishment
Direct democracy
CentreN/AN/A8 – Zielona Góra160
MNGerman Minority
Minority interests
Social market economy
Centre-leftRyszard GallaRyszard Galla0.2%21 – Opole241
RNPRepair Poland Movement
National conservatism
Right-wing populism
Right-wingRomuald StarosielecN/AN/A18 – Siedlce163

Electoral committees with candidates only for the Senate

ListIdeologyPolitical positionLeaderCandidates
MPMirosław Piasecki Candidate for Senator RP
Populism[25]
Single-winner voting[26]
Centre-right[27] Mirosław Piasecki2
ND-TNew Democracy - Yes
Economic progressivism
Regionalism
Centre-left to left-wingMarek Materek5
PS'23Senate Pact Independents
Pro-Europeanism
Localism
Big tentN/A6
PL 2050Polska 2050Social liberalism
Pro-industry self-regulation[28]
Centre-leftWłodzimierz Zydorczak3
PiraciPolish Pirate Party
Pirate politics
Freedom of information
CentreJanusz Wdzięczak1
POCivic Agreement
Civic engagementCentreAndrzej Dyszewski
Rafał Skiba
2
ŚRSilesians Together
Localism
Silesian autonomism
Centre-leftLeon Swaczyna2
WiSFree and Solidary
Solidarism
Conservatism
Right-wingJan Miller3
WWolnościowcyLibertarianism
Minarchism
Right-wingArtur Dziambor1
ZUnited
Solidarism
Economic nationalism
Left-wingWojciech Kornowski2
ZChRUnion of Christian Families
National conservatism
Political Catholicism
Far-rightBogusław Rogalski5
ZSSlavic Union
Agrarianism
Economic nationalism
SyncreticWłodzimierz Rynkowski2
Other electoral committees with a single candidate21

Electoral committees withdrawn before the election

Liberal Poland – Entrepreneurs' Strike has registered electoral lists in 17 constituencies, however on 13 October 2023 the committee has announced its intention to withdraw from the race. The committee's candidates will appear on the ballot, although votes for them will be counted as invalid.[29]

Electoral committees

Within the stipulated deadline for submitting electoral committees, 94 committees were applied for registration, of which 85 were registered: two coalitions, 40 political parties and 43 voters. 46 committees declared running for both the Sejm and the Senate, three only for the Sejm and 36 only for the Senate.[30] [31]

Electoral committees !!Type!Committee!Status!Sejm lists!Senate lists
1PartyConfederation Liberty and Independence
2PartyNew Left
3PartyNonpartisan Local Government Activists
4PartyLiberal Poland Entrepreneurs' Strike
5PartyPatriots Poland
6PartyThere is One Poland
7CoalitionCivic Coalition PO .N iPL Zieloni
8PartySlavic Union
9PartyFreedom Party
10CoalitionThird Way PSL-PL2050 of Szymon Hołownia
11PartyLaw and Justice
12PartySocial Movement AGROunia Yes
13PartyNon-partisans
14PartyAnti-party
15PartyUnion of Christian Families
16PartyUnited
17PartyResponsibility
18PartyNormal Country
19VotersProsperity and Peace Movement
20PartyFree Europe
21PartyPoland 2050
22PartyRepair of Poland Movement
23PartyPiast – Unity of Thought of European Nations and the World
24VotersGerman Minority
25PartySilesians Together
26PartySelf-Defence of the Republic of Poland
27VotersAndrzej Dziuba – Senate Pact
28PartyPolish Pirate Party
29VotersPact Senate for Citizens
30VotersMarcin Nowak
31PartyNew Hope
32VotersKrzysztof KwiatkowskiSenate Pact
33VotersKrzysztof Lechowski
34VotersCivic Pact Lasecki
35VotersLidia Staroń – Always on the Side of People
36VotersRobert Roguski
37Voters"Future of Poland"
38PartyFree and Solidary
39VotersIndependent Candidate Dawid Borowiak
40VotersPolish Anti-war Movement
41VotersMirosław Augustyniak Candidate For Senator of the Republic of Poland
42VotersDariusz Męczykowski
43VotersJan Maria Jackowski
44PartyPeople's Party "Ojcowizna" RP
45PartyCongress of the New Right
46VotersProf. Joanna Senyszyn
47VotersProfessor Krzysztof Gutkowski
48PartyNew Democracy - Yes
49VotersWadim TyszkiewiczSenate Pact
50VotersCivic Agreement
51PartySocial Alternative
52VotersOur Left
53PartyThe Right
54VotersZygmunt FrankiewiczSenate Pact
55VotersBeata Mnich
56PartySelf-Defence
57VotersJózef Zając
58PartyWolnościowcy
59VotersJerzy Markowski
60VotersLiberal Democracy
61PartyRepublican Party
62PartySilesian Regional Party
63PartyUnity of Poles Movement
64VotersLucyna Kulińska in the Service of the Republic
65VotersNon-partisan Anti-system
66VotersYes for Senate RP Jan Kuriata
67VotersMirosław Piasecki Candidate For Senator of the Republic of Poland
68Votersof Zamojszczyzna
69VotersNonpartisan Local Government Activists of Galicia
70PartyFourth Republic of Poland
71VotersSocial Poland
72PartyPublic Interest
73VotersBelieve in Poland
74VotersE-parliament-New Civilization
75VotersIndependent is Alive
76VotersKajetan Gornig
77VotersMariusz Kazimierz Wójtowicz
78VotersMateusz Pazdan "Cooperation and Honesty"
79PartyConservative Party
80VotersCandidate of the Mountain Land
81VotersFrom Greater Poland to the Senate
82PartyNational Movement
83VotersKrzysztof Wawrzyniec Borkowski Senate Pact
84VotersGreater Poland Senate Initiative
85VotersTogether for Częstochowa
86VotersRoyal Cities
87VotersEuropean Left
88Voters"Royal Senate"
89Party"Piast" Faction
90VotersLocal Government Initiative Together
91VotersFair Elections
92VotersROP
93VotersDr Rafał Stachura – Senate Pact
94PartyCompatriots

Timeline

With the President setting the election date to be 15 October 2023, the following schedule was approved by the National Electoral Commission (PKW):[32]

Opinion polls

See main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Polish parliamentary election.

Results

Sejm

See also: List of Sejm members (2023–2027). PiS remained the largest party in the Sejm, but with about 35% of the vote, lost its majority and was unable to form a government. The three main opposition groups, Civic Coalition, Third Way and New Left, took 54% of the votes, winning enough seats to allow them to take power.[33] According to the final vote count by the National Electoral Commission, Law and Justice won 194 seats, the Civic Coalition 157, the Third Way 65, The Left 26, and the Confederation Liberty and Independence 18.[34]

Although the German Minority Electoral Committee did win 5.37% of the vote in the Opole region in this election, they came 6th instead of the expected 5th place, falling 5,372 votes short. The Opole Voivodeship represents a total of 12 Sejm seats, and as the 5th place was taken by the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence, the last 12th seat, which had previously been won by German Minority, went to them instead.[35] As a result, the German Minority Electoral Committee failed to win any parliamentary seat for the first time in 32 years.[36]

By constituency

ConstituencyLaw and JusticeCivic CoalitionThird WayThe LeftConfederationNonpartisan Local Government ActivistsThere is One PolandOthers
%Seats%Seats%Seats%Seats%Seats%Seats%Seats%Seats
1 – Legnica34.80533.78510.7519.5116.3303.3401.490
2 – Wałbrzych33.34337.17412.1317.9806.0201.8001.570
3 – Wrocław26.66436.94613.74211.3516.9812.8901.440
4 – Bydgoszcz30.45435.01515.0629.9216.4201.6701.470
5 – Toruń34.06529.52415.68211.2516.3711.4401.2500.420
6 – Lublin45.48820.32315.8725.7218.3811.6002.3000.350
7 – Chełm50.75717.40213.0425.6207.7912.0802.8300.480
8 – Zielona Góra27.76 437.73515.0729.2716.5102.3101.1200.220
9 – Łódź26.82341.07511.89112.2215.5701.2301.200
46.60621.69213.7316.3907.6202.1701.3800.430
11 – Sieradz41.46625.89314.5027.7316.8201.6201.4500.520
12 – Kraków I42.86524.24214.971 6.0407.8801.7802.220
13 – Kraków II30.68530.73516.86211.0417.7111.5101.470
14 – Nowy Sącz53.736 16.10211.5813.1808.7312.4904.180
15 – Tarnów48.67517.02218.6424.000 7.9901.3802.300
16 – Płock44.11522.40317.0726.5206.5202.0301.350
17 – Radom48.68620.96213.9815.3407.3101.7101.5300.500
18 – Siedlce48.62718.71215.5124.8508.2111.8601.9000.350
19 – Warsaw I20.14443.23913.25313.4536.2411.3701.320
20 – Warsaw II31.74435.23415.0627.0617.0612.2701.590
21 – Opole31.26433.59512.7417.2416.4911.5701.7405.370
22 – Krosno54.70715.85213.7914.470 8.6212.0700.500
23 – Rzeszów51.60917.70312.4224.8709.4811.5302.400
24 – Białystok42.39720.84318.8634.8409.7911.1601.6400.470
25 – Gdańsk25.20341.70614.7029.4116.2301.4401.320
26 – Słupsk29.24437.91613.5928.3317.2111.6202.100
27 – Bielsko-Biała I36.71428.67314.5517.7707.8411.7302.4600.280
28 – Częstochowa36.35329.11314.7219.4106.5602.0901.740
29 – Katowice I30.16336.06413.3419.2116.9501.9002.380
38.06429.98312.4516.8408.0012.2702.400
31 – Katowice II30.88436.79513.2718.4616.7011.8002.100
32 – Katowice III29.74330.3039.85121.6025.6901.4501.370
33 – Kielce47.07820.93413.8026.8316.5512.8801.3800.550
34 – Elbląg35.20431.87315.4018.110 6.5401.4401.1200.330
35 – Olsztyn32.33433.07416.1118.0916.9301.9801.480
36 – Kalisz35.85528.85416.1628.5216.9802.3901.520
37 – Konin38.69423.99216.6329.4816.9702.3501.3800.510
38 – Piła29.11334.87417.6627.8406.8701.9101.740
39 – Poznań19.57244.09516.54212.3115.9001.590
40 – Koszalin31.36338.69412.3518.7206.0201.6301.240
41 – Szczecin28.79440.13612.6219.3915.9401.6201.1200.390
Poland35.419430.715714.4658.6267.2181.901.600.30
Source: National Electoral Commission

Senate

See also: List of Polish senators (2023–2027).

By constituency

Voivodeship Commission Result Elected Member
1I Waldemar Witkowski
2II Civic Coalition gain from Law and Justice
3III Małgorzata Sekuła-Szmajdzińska
4I Civic Coalition hold Agnieszka Kołacz-Leszczyńska
5II Law and Justice hold Aleksander Szwed
6I Kazimierz Michał Ujazdowski
7II Civic Coalition hold Grzegorz Schetyna
8III Civic Coalition holdBarbara Zdrojewska
9I Civic Coalition hold Andrzej Kobiak
10II Civic Coalition hold
11I Civic Coalition holdTomasz Lenz
12II Third Way holdRyszard Bober
13III The Left gain from Law and Justice
14I Law and Justice holdStanisław Gogacz
15II Law and Justice holdGrzegorz Czelej
16III Third Way gain from Civic Coalition
17I Law and Justice holdGrzegorz Bierecki
18II Independent gain from Law and JusticeJózef Zając
19III Law and Justice holdJerzy Chróścikowski
20I Third Way gain from Civic Coalition
21II Civic Coalition holdWładysław Komarnicki
22III Senate Pact independent holdWadim Tyszkiewicz
23I Civic Coalition holdArtur Dunin
24II Senate Pact independent holdKrzysztof Kwiatkowski
25I Law and Justice holdPrzemysław Błaszczyk
26II The Left gain from Law and Justice
27III Law and Justice holdMichał Seweryński
28I Law and Justice holdWiesław Dobkowski
29II Law and Justice holdRafał Ambrozik
30I Law and Justice holdAndrzej Pająk
31II Law and Justice holdMarek Pęk
32III Civic Coalition holdJerzy Fedorowicz
33IV Civic Coalition holdBogdan Klich
34I Law and Justice holdWłodzimierz Bernacki
35II Law and Justice holdKazimierz Wiatr
36I Law and Justice holdJan Hamerski
37II Law and Justice holdWiktor Durlak
38I Third Way gain from Law and JusticeWaldemar Pawlak
39II Law and Justice hold
40I Civic Coalition holdJolanta Hibner
41II Third Way holdMichał Kamiński
42III Civic Coalition holdMarek Borowski
43IV Civic Coalition holdMałgorzata Kidawa-Błońska
44V Civic Coalition holdAdam Bodnar
45VI The Left gain from Civic CoalitionMagdalena Biejat
46I Law and Justice holdRobert Mamątow
47II Law and Justice hold
48III Law and Justice holdWaldemar Kraska
49I Law and Justice holdStanisław Karczewski
50II Law and Justice holdWojciech Skurkiewicz
51I Civic Coalition gain from Law and JusticeTadeusz Jarmuziewicz
52II The Left gain from Civic Coalition
53III Civic Coalition holdBeniamin Godyla
54I Law and Justice holdJanina Sagatowska
55II Law and Justice holdZdzisław Pupa
56III Law and Justice hold
57I Law and Justice holdAlicja Zając
58II Law and Justice holdMieczysław Golba
59I Law and Justice holdMarek Komorowski
60II Third Way gain from Law and JusticeMaciej Żywno
61III Law and Justice holdAnna Bogucka-Skowrońska
62I Civic Coalition holdKazimierz Kleina
63II The Left gain from Civic Coalition
64III Civic Coalition holdSławomir Rybicki
65I Civic Coalition holdBogdan Borusewicz
66II Civic Coalition holdRyszard Świlski
67III Civic Coalition holdLeszek Czarnobaj
68I Law and Justice holdRyszard Majer
69II The Left holdWojciech Konieczny
70I Senate Pact independent gain from Civic CoalitionZygmunt Frankiewicz
71II Civic Coalition holdHalina Bieda
72I Civic Coalition gain from Law and JusticeHenryk Siedlaczek
73II Third Way gain from Law and Justice
74III Civic Coalition gain from Law and JusticeGabriela Morawska-Stanecka
75IV Senate Pact independent gain from Civic Coalition
76V Civic Coalition holdBeata Małecka-Libera
77VI Civic Coalition holdJoanna Sekuła
78III Civic Coalition holdAgnieszka Gorgoń-Komor
79IV Law and Justice hold
80VII The Left gain from Civic Coalition
81I Law and Justice holdJacek Włosowicz
82II Law and Justice holdJarosław Rusiecki
83III Law and Justice holdKrzysztof Słoń
84I Civic Coalition holdJerzy Wcisła
85II Third Way gain from Law and JusticeGustaw Marek Brzezin
86I Civic Coalition gain from Independent
87II Civic Coalition gain from Law and Justice
88I Civic Coalition holdAdam Szejnfeld
89II Third Way holdJan Filip Libicki
90I Civic Coalition holdWaldy Dzikowski
91II Civic Coalition holdRafał Grupiński
92I Third Way gain from Civic Coalition
93II Law and Justice hold
94I Civic Coalition holdWojciech Ziemniak
95II Civic Coalition holdEwa Matecka
96III Civic Coalition holdJanusz Pęcherz
97I Civic Coalition holdTomasz Grodzki
98II Civic Coalition holdMagdalena Kochan
99I Civic Coalition holdJanusz Gromek
100II Civic Coalition gain from IndependentStanisław Gawłowski
Source: National Electoral Commission

Electorate demographics

DemographicTurnoutLaw and JusticeCivic CoalitionThird WayThe LeftConfederationNonpartisan Local Government ActivistsThere is One PolandOthers
Total vote73.9%36.1%31.0%14.0%8.6%6.8%2.0%1.3%0.2%
Sex
Men73.1%36.3%29.4%13.9%6.8%10.2%2.0%1.2%0.2%
Women74.7%35.9%32.5%14.1%10.1%3.7%2.1%1.4%0.2%
Age
18–29 years old70.9%14.4%27.6%17.9%17.4%17.8%3.5%1.2%0.2%
30–39 years old73.9%25.7%28.8%18.3%10.4%11.8%3.0%1.7%0.3%
40–49 years old80.5%31.6%34.5%16.5%8.1%5.2%2.2%1.7%0.2%
50–59 years old84.4%43.7%32.3%12.9%5.1%3.2%1.5%1.2%0.1%
60 or older66.5%52.8%31.0%8.2%5.2%1.1%0.8%0.8%0.1%
Occupation
Company ownern/a20.3%42.2%15.9%7.4%10.9%1.6%1.5%0.2%
Manager/expertn/a18.4%40.4%19.2%11.3%7.3%2.0%1.2%0.2%
Admin/servicesn/a29.2%31.6%17.2%10.7%7.1%2.5%1.5%0.2%
Farmern/a66.6%9.5%11.5%3.0%5.3%2.2%1.5%0.4%
Workern/a49.6%19.8%11.1%5.1%9.6%3.1%1.5%0.2%
Studentn/a11.0%31.0%18.6%21.6%13.4%3.1%1.1%0.2%
Unemployedn/a45.2%21.4%11.8%7.7%9.0%3.1%1.5%0.3%
Retiredn/a53.4%30.6%7.8%5.5%1.1%0.8%0.7%0.1%
Othersn/a34.7%27.4%15.8%8.9%8.5%2.9%1.6%0.2%
Agglomeration
Rural70.3%47.6%21.2%13.4%5.9%7.8%2.4%1.4%0.3%
<50,000 pop.74.1%33.7%33.4%14.7%8.3%6.5%2.1%1.2%0.1%
51,000 - 200,000 pop.73.9%29.7%36.7%13.8%9.9%6.4%1.8%1.5%0.2%
201,000 – 500,000 pop.82.6%23.9%41.4%15.8%10.7%5.4%1.8%0.8%0.2%
>500,000 pop.81.2%21.1%42.9%14.0%14.5%5.5%1.3%0.7%0.0%
Education
Elementaryn/a62.6%15.4%7.7%4.7%6.1%2.5%0.8%0.2%
Vocationaln/a61.5%18.1%8.3%4.2%4.6%2.1%1.0%0.2%
Secondaryn/a37.7%29.9%13.0%8.1%7.7%2.2%1.2%0.2%
Highern/a22.2%38.6%17.8%11.1%6.8%1.8%1.5%0.2%
Sejm vote in 2019
Law and Justicen/a87.7%2.0%3.5%1.1%2.8%1.4%1.4%0.1%
Civic Coalitionn/a1.0%73.6%16.1%7.2%1.1%0.7%0.2%0.1%
The Leftn/a2.3%23.1%14.1%57.3%1.0%1.7%0.4%0.1%
Polish Coalitionn/a14.1%14.1%57.8%7.0%2.7%3.3%1.0%0.0%
Confederationn/a6.8%8.9%11.1%3.0%63.3%3.4%3.1%0.4%
Othersn/a6.7%19.0%36.2%17.8%6.6%7.7%4.5%1.5%
Didn't voten/a14.7%27.1%18.7%13.3%19.8%4.0%1.8%0.6%
Don't remembern/a20.9%26.1%24.6%12.4%8.8%4.3%2.3%0.6%
Second-round president vote in 2020
Andrzej Dudan/a81.4%2.7%4.7%1.5%6.0%1.8%1.8%0.1%
Rafał Trzaskowskin/a1.4%60.7%19.8%13.7%2.8%1.1%0.3%0.2%
Didn't voten/a14.7%27.1%18.7%13.3%19.8%4.0%1.8%0.6%
Don't remembern/a20.9%26.1%24.6%12.4%8.8%4.3%2.3%0.6%
Source: Ipsos[37]

Analysis

Turnout was 74.7% among women and 73.1% among men, with both giving similar levels of support for the government and two leading opposition parties, Civic Coalition and Third Way.[38] [39] Analysts identified a "youthquake" in which voting by Poland's young voters had a disproportionate impact on the election outcome. Turnout for ages 18–29 reached 68.8%, compared to 46.4% in the previous elections of 2019; among these voters, support for the ruling party fell to 14.9% from 26.3% four years earlier.[40]

Aftermath

President Andrzej Duda later announced that he would hold consultations separately with every parliamentary party leader on 24 and 25 October.[41] On 24 October, leaders of the Civic Coalition, the Polish People's Party, Poland 2050, and The Left stated they are ready to form a government with Donald Tusk as their candidate for prime minister.[42] However, Duda had a maximum of 30 days to call parliament into session, especially if he wanted the ruling Law and Justice party to try to build a government. Opposition parties had called on Duda to allow them to form a government as soon as possible and respect the will of the voters. Representatives of Duda stated that he would do so within the timeframe that the Constitution demands and allows.[43]

On 6 November, Duda named Law and Justice's incumbent prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki as his prime ministerial nominee.[44] This move was criticized by the opposition, as the United Right was 40 seats short of a majority and no other bloc had agreed to join them for coalition talks.[45]

On 10 November, Civic Coalition, Poland 2050, Polish People's Party and New Left signed a coalition agreement with Tusk as their candidate for prime minister. The opposition parties wanted to sign the agreement before the Sejm's first sitting in order to show that they stood ready to govern. Morawiecki was required to secure the Sejm's confidence within two weeks of being sworn in. Under the Constitution, if Morawiecki failed to do so, the Sejm would then designate its own candidate for prime minister, and Duda would be required to appoint that candidate before 11 December. Most commentators expected Morawiecki to come up short of the support needed to govern, as no other party willing to go into coalition with PiS would give it enough support to command the confidence of the Sejm.[46]

On 13 November, the newly elected Sejm held its first session. Szymon Hołownia, leader of Poland 2050, was elected Marshal of the Sejm, winning over the incumbent Elżbieta Witek of PiS.[47] Later that day, on the first meeting of the Senate, former Marshal of the Sejm Małgorzata Kidawa-Błońska of Civic Coalition was elected Marshal of the Senate.[48]

On 27 November, Mateusz Morawiecki was sworn in by President Duda for an unprecedented third term as Prime Minister.[49] His cabinet had been mockingly dubbed the "Two Weeks Government" by Polish media due to its low likelihood of passing the confidence vote.[50] [51] [52] Though the far-right Confederation Liberty and Independence had been suggested by commentators as a potential coalition partner, Krzysztof Bosak, leader of the Confederation component National Movement, told Politico Europe that "there is no chance" of Confederation supporting a PiS government. Even had Confederation supported PiS, the United Right would have still been well short of a majority in the Sejm. Former prime minister Leszek Miller joked that the Morawiecki government would not survive even as long as a house fly, saying on Twitter that "Morawiecki's government will not even have time to pupate, let alone lay eggs."[53]

On 11 December, Morawiecki's caretaker cabinet lost a vote of confidence in the Sejm by 190 votes to 266.[54] [55] Later that day, the Sejm nominated Tusk for prime minister, who was subsequently confirmed by 248 votes in favour and 201 against.[56] Tusk's cabinet was sworn in on 13 December.[57]

Notes and References

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  2. Web site: Picheta . Rob . 15 October 2023 . Poland's opposition has path to oust populist ruling party, exit poll shows . 15 October 2023 . CNN . 15 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231015152206/https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/europe/poland-election-voting-intl/index.html . live.
  3. Web site: Poland election: Ruling Law and Justice party win poll. 14 October 2019. BBC News. 15 October 2023. 19 July 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230719195831/https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50037654. live.
  4. News: Poland's Parliament is now divided. What does this mean for the ruling Law and Justice party?. Mary. Stegmaier. Kamil. Marcinkiewicz. . 18 October 2019. 15 October 2023. 13 March 2022. https://web.archive.org/web/20220313173527/https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/10/18/polands-parliament-is-now-divided-what-does-this-mean-ruling-law-justice-party/. live.
  5. Web site: fr . Jakub . Iwaniuk . En Pologne, l'opposition conquiert le Sénat et freine la " révolution conservatrice " du PiS . In Poland, the opposition wins the Senate and slows PiS' "conservative revolution" . . 14 November 2019 . 15 October 2023 . 1 June 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230601160102/https://www.lemonde.fr/international/article/2019/11/14/en-pologne-l-opposition-conquiert-le-senat-et-freine-la-revolution-conservatrice-du-pis_6019165_3210.html . live.
  6. Web site: Our goal is Polish prosperity state: PM . . 19 November 2019 . 15 October 2023 . 1 October 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20201001124027/https://polandin.com/45397689/our-goal-is-polish-prosperity-state-pm . live.
  7. Web site: New government receives vote of confidence . . 20 November 2019 . 15 October 2023 . 26 June 2020 . https://web.archive.org/web/20200626232312/https://polandin.com/45413891/new-government-receives-vote-of-confidence . live.
  8. News: Jean-Baptiste . François . fr . En Pologne, la controverse du maintien de l'élection présidentielle . la-croix.com . 27 March 2020 . 15 October 2023 . 11 April 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230411134646/https://www.la-croix.com/Monde/Europe/En-Pologne-controverse-maintien-lelection-presidentielle-2020-03-27-1201086406 . live.
  9. Web site: Duda narrowly re-elected in Poland in boost for ruling nationalists. Shaun. Walker. The Guardian. 13 July 2020. 15 October 2023. 15 May 2023. https://web.archive.org/web/20230515112714/https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/incumbent-andrzej-duda-wins-polish-presidential-election-commission. live.
  10. Web site: pl . Konwencja PO. Budka proponuje Koalicję 276. "Tyle głosów potrzebnych do przejęcia władzy" . PO Convention, Budka proposes a coalition for 276: "so many votes will be needed to get in power" . gazetapl . 6 February 2021 . 15 October 2023 . 19 July 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230719173530/https://wiadomosci.gazeta.pl/wiadomosci/7,114884,26762104,konwencja-po-276-glosow-potrzebnych-do-przejecia-wladzy.html . live.
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  17. Web site: Prezydent: podjąłem decyzję o zarządzeniu wyborów do Sejmu i Senatu na dzień 15 października 2023 roku . 10 August 2023 . Polska Agencja Prasowa SA . pl . 9 August 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230809071130/https://www.pap.pl/aktualnosci/news,1606184,prezydent-podjalem-decyzje-o-zarzadzeniu-wyborow-do-sejmu-i-senatu-na . live.
  18. Web site: Znamy cztery daty, kiedy wybory 2023 mogą się odbyć. "Decyzję podejmie prezydent" . 2 February 2023 . 4 February 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230204025140/https://polityka.se.pl/wiadomosci/wybory-2023-cztery-mozliwe-terminy-wyjasniamy-kiedy-wybory-parlamentarne-2023-moga-sie-odbyc-02-02-aa-FJMa-bZd5-BzER.html . live.
  19. Web site: Election Resources on the Internet: Elections to the Polish Sejm, Part I . electionresources.org . 3 August 2014 . 24 February 2021 . https://web.archive.org/web/20210224021334/http://electionresources.org/pl/ . live.
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  21. Web site: Ogiolda . Krzysztof . Mniejszość niemiecka bez reprezentacji w Sejmie. Tego jeszcze nie było . Opolska360 . 28 October 2023 . pl-PL . 16 October 2023 . 28 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231028141523/https://opolska360.pl/mniejszosc-niemiecka-bez-reprezentacji-w-sejmie-tego-jeszcze-nie-bylo/ . live .
  22. Web site: 28 February 2023 . Opozycja zawarła pakt senacki. Co to konkretnie oznacza? . 10 August 2023 . www.polityka.pl . pl . 10 August 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230810230359/https://www.polityka.pl/tygodnikpolityka/kraj/2203490,1,opozycja-zawarla-pakt-senacki-co-to-konkretnie-oznacza.read . live.
  23. Web site: 25 July 2023 . Pakt senacki. Politycy opozycji mają "postawić kropkę nad i" . 10 August 2023 . Onet Wiadomości . pl . 10 August 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230810230626/https://wiadomosci.onet.pl/kraj/pakt-senacki-politycy-opozycji-maja-postawic-kropke-nad-i/pd3n15r . live.
  24. Web site: Koalicyjny Klub Parlamentarny Lewicy (Nowa Lewica, PPS, Razem) – Sejm Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej . www.sejm.gov.pl . 27 September 2023 . 27 September 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20230927102006/https://www.sejm.gov.pl/sejm9.nsf/klubposlowie.xsp?klub=Lewica . live.
  25. Web site: Lokalny antysystemowiec . 23 July 2020 . Głos Wielkopolski . pl . 19 . 30 September 2023 . 7 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231007091432/https://plikoskop.polskapress.pl/OR/DODATKI/POZ_2019.PDF . live.
  26. Web site: Śremianin wystartuje w wyborach parlamentarnych. Przedsiębiorca z Lucin, Mirosław Piasecki będzie się ubiegać o mandat senatora . 3 September 2023 . Tomasz Barylski . naszemiasto.pl . pl . 30 September 2023 . 7 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231007091431/https://srem.naszemiasto.pl/sremianin-wystartuje-w-wyborach-parlamentarnych/ar/c1-9440533 . live.
  27. Web site: Lokalny antysystemowiec . 23 July 2020 . Głos Wielkopolski . pl . 19 . "Moje drogi z Ruchem Kukiz'15 się rozeszły, ale moje zaangażowanie oraz idee, z którymi działałem się nie zmieniły – dodaje." . "My paths with the Kukiz'15 Movement have diverged, but my commitment and the ideas with which I acted have not changed," he adds." . 30 September 2023 . 7 October 2023 . https://web.archive.org/web/20231007091432/https://plikoskop.polskapress.pl/OR/DODATKI/POZ_2019.PDF . live.
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