There have been several rounds of peace talks to halt the Russian invasion of Ukraine (2022–present) and end the Russo-Ukrainian War (2014–present) in an armistice. The first meeting was held four days after the start of the invasion, on 28 February 2022, in Belarus. It concluded without result, with delegations from both sides returning to their capitals for consultations.[1] A second and third round of talks took place on 3 and 7 March 2022,[2] [3] on the Belarus–Ukraine border, in an undisclosed location in the Gomel region of Belarus.[4] A fourth and fifth round of talks were respectively held on 10 and 14 March in Antalya, Turkey.
During a series of meetings, by the end of March Russia and Ukraine negotiators produced the Istanbul Communiqué, "Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine's Security Guarantees" - a framework of a possible agreement. The agreement would have declared Ukraine to be a neutral state, put a limit on its military, and list Russia and Western countries, including the US and the UK, as guarantors, obliged to assist Ukraine in case of aggression against it. The talks almost reached agreement, with both sides "consider[ing] far-reaching concessions", but stopped in May 2022 due to a combination of several factors.[5]
Peace talks and the stability of international borders were further discussed in the Ukrainian parliament during the week of 9 May 2022. Following the 2022 Ukrainian eastern counteroffensive, Russia renewed calls for peace talks, with the sources from the Russian government reporting that Russia is not truly committed to peace and is simply stalling for time while its forces trained and replenished for a future advance.[6]
Russia was a signatory to the 1994 Budapest Memorandum political agreement, providing security assurances to Ukraine. Russia reaffirmed this assurance in 2009.[7] After the Russian occupation of Crimea began in 2014, Putin claimed that the Revolution of Dignity had created a new political entity and any prior agreement with Ukraine was therefore void.[8]
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia has repeatedly engineered frozen conflicts to block the expansion of NATO or the European Union into the former Soviet sphere of influence.[9] [10] [11] [12] Conflicts are deemed "frozen" when fighting has stopped but no political resolution has been achieved. In 2014, Russia orchestrated separatist movements in Ukraine, and Russian proxy forces began the Donbas war.[13] [9] [12] After Ukraine recovered significant territory up to August 2014, Russia intervened with conventional forces, leading to negotiated ceasefires through the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015.[14] These ceasefires had potential to freeze the conflict, but sporadic offensives by Russia-backed separatists continued.[14] Although Russia was a party to the Minsk agreements, it later denied any obligations, claiming to have only been a mediator between Ukraine and separatist forces.[15]
In the lead-up to the invasion, Russia's president Vladimir Putin repeatedly attacked Ukraine's right to exist and referred to Ukraine as "historically Russian lands". In his July 2021 essay "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians", he claimed there is "no historical basis" for the "idea of Ukrainian people as a nation separate from the Russians".[16] On 24 February 2022, Russia began its invasion of Ukraine as an escalation of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War.[17]
Shortly before the invasion, Russia demanded an international treaty to prevent Ukraine from ever joining NATO but also withdrawal of NATO from existing member states and reversal to the 1997 presence.[18] This was rejected by NATO as it would go against its "open-door policy" and the principle of self-determination. NATO offered to improve communication with Russia and discuss missile placements and military exercises, as long as Russia withdrew troops from Ukraine's borders.[19]
Russia's demands at the start of the invasion included recognition of Russia's annexation of Crimea, recognition of the Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic as independent states, as well as "demilitarization" and "denazification" of Ukraine but did not clearly specify meaning of these postulates. Russian propaganda falsely claimed that Ukraine's government were neo-Nazis carrying out "genocide" in the Donbas.[20] [21] An editorial "What Russia Should Do with Ukraine", published in Russian state media, explained the "denazification" as complete eradication of Ukrainian national identity.[21] Genocide scholar Eugene Finkel said the document was an admission of intent to commit genocide in Ukraine.[21] It is unclear to what extent the editorial reflected official policy, but Ukrainian-Canadian diplomat Roman Waschuk said that the appearance of the editorial around the same time as the Bucha massacre made negotiations more difficult.[21]
In September 2022, Reuters reported that Putin's envoy on Ukraine Dmitry Kozak had struck a provisional deal that would satisfy Russia's demand for Ukraine to stay out of NATO, but the plan was rejected by Putin who preferred a full-scale military invasion.[22] After Russia declared it had annexed the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that these additional annexations must be recognized before any peace plan. In April 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that he wanted any peace negotiations to focus on creating a "new world order" to counter global hegemony of the United States. In January 2024, Putin again made statements which suggested, according to the Institute for the Study of War, that his "maximalist objectives in Ukraine" remained unchanged, "which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender". He again called for the overthrow of the Ukrainian government.[23]
See main article: Ukraine's Peace Formula. Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed in November 2022 a 10-point peace plan,[24] [25] consisting of:
Two months before the invasion, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba dismissed the idea that declaring neutrality would prevent Russian aggression. He noted that Ukraine was a neutral country in 2014 when Russia occupied Crimea and invaded the Donbas.[26] In negotiations during March and April 2022, Ukraine was willing to consider a neutral status—wherein Ukraine would not join any military alliances or host forces of other nations on its territory—if it received security guarantees from its European allies. Reacting to Russian attacks on civilian targets later that year, Kuleba said, "There can be no 'neutrality' in the face of such mass war crimes. Pretending to be 'neutral' equals taking Russia's side."
In August 2022, Zelenskyy said that he would not agree to a ceasefire that would freeze the conflict while Russia occupied 22% of Ukraine: "We explained that there will be no Minsk-3, Minsk-5, or Minsk-7. We will not play these games, we have lost part of our territories this way ... it is a trap."[27] In September 2022, after Russia proclaimed it had annexed large swathes of Ukraine, Zelenskyy signed NATO application papers.[28] Ukraine has sought various security guarantees as interim measures prior to NATO accession, but there is no consensus within NATO about such an arrangement.[29] In June 2023, Zelensky said that Ukraine was not ready to negotiate with Russian representatives unless Russia withdrew its troops.[30] He repeated this refusal in January 2024.[31]
Deputy Kremlin Chief of Staff Dmitry Kozak said in 2022 that he had negotiated an agreement with Ukraine within a few days of the invasion.[32] This settlement would have ended hostilities in exchange for guarantees that Ukraine would not join NATO. The agreement was however blocked by Putin, who "expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory".[33] A Kremlin spokesman denied the story.[32]
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Belarusian president Alexander Lukashenko agreed on 27 February that a Ukrainian delegation would meet with Russian officials on the Belarusian border, near the Pripyat River, without preconditions.[34] It was reported that Lukashenko assured Zelenskyy that all planes, helicopters, and missiles on Belarusian territory would remain on the ground during the negotiations.[35]
Talks began on 28 February, near the Belarusian border. The Ukrainian president's office said that the main goals were to call for an immediate ceasefire, and for Russian troops to be withdrawn from Ukraine.[36] It concluded with no immediate agreements.[37]
On 3 March, the second round of peace talks began. Both sides agreed to open humanitarian corridors for evacuating civilians.[38] Russia's demands were Ukraine's recognition of Russian-occupied Crimea, independence for separatist-controlled Luhansk and Donetsk, and "de-militarisation" and "de-Nazification". Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that while his country was ready for talks to resume, Russia's demands had not changed.[39] [40]
On 5 March, Naftali Bennett flew to Moscow and held three hours of meetings with Putin, then flew to Germany and held meetings with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Bennett spoke in advance with Zelenskyy, who had previously asked for his help mediating. He also coordinated with the US, France and Germany.[41] According to Al Monitor, the meetings were instigated by Scholz who made a brief visit to Israel on 3 March and held a long one-on-one meeting with Bennett, which produced the mediation idea.[42]
On 6 March, Ukrainian official Denys Kireyev was found dead after being accused of committing ‘treason’ and working for Russia. Barely a week after attending the first round of peace talks, images of Kireyev’s corpse began circulating.[43]
A third round of negotiations began on 7 March, amidst ongoing fighting and bombing.[44] Dmitry Peskov restated Moscow's demands, that Ukraine should agree to change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, accept that the Crimea was Russian territory, and recognize Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states; he claimed that Russia was ready to halt military operations "in a moment" if Kyiv agreed to these conditions.[45] Although a deal had not been reached yet, Ukrainian negotiator and advisor to the president Mykhailo Podoliak tweeted that "there were some small positive shifts regarding logistics of humanitarian corridors."[46] However, the day before, a Ukrainian negotiator was shot amid claims of spying for Russia.[47]
On 10 March, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba met for talks in Antalya, Turkey with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu as mediator, in the first high-level contact between the two sides since the beginning of the invasion.[48] Ukraine had attempted to negotiate a 24-hour ceasefire to provide aid and evacuation to civilians, especially in Mariupol.[49] After two hours of talks, no agreement was reached.[50] Airstrikes on the port city continued.[51]
The fourth round of negotiations began on 14 March via video conference. The talks lasted a few hours and ended without a breakthrough. The two sides resumed talks on 15 March,[52] after which Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the talks as beginning to "sound more realistic".[53]
By 16 March, Mykhailo Podoliak was assigned as the chief negotiator for the Ukrainian peace delegation, who indicated that peace negotiations of a 15-point plan would involve the retraction of Russian forces from their advanced positions in Ukraine, along with international guarantees for military support and alliance in case of renewed Russian military action, in return for Ukraine not pursuing further affiliation with NATO.[54]
The two sides again resumed talks on 16 March.[53] Later that day, the Financial Times reported that a 15-point plan, first discussed on 14 March, negotiated with the Russians was being identified by Zelenskyy as more realistic for ending the war.[55] [56] After the fourth day of talks on 17 March, Russia said an agreement has not been reached.[57] Following the talks, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian warned that Russia was only "pretending to negotiate", in line with a strategy it has used elsewhere.[58]
On 20 March, Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, the mediator of the talks, described them as "making progress". Referring to his role as "an honest mediator and facilitator", he gave little further detail.[59]
Following his address to the Israeli parliament, Zelenskyy thanked Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett for his efforts in encouraging peace talks, and suggested that they might take place in Jerusalem.[60]
The fifth round of talks, on 21 March, failed to achieve a breakthrough. Zelenskyy called for direct talks with Putin to end the war.[61] Sergey Lavrov said direct talks between the two presidents would only go ahead once both sides are closer to reaching a settlement.[62]
On 28 March, Zelenskyy confirmed that a renewal of peace talk negotiations with Russia would start in Istanbul on 29 March, with the intention of discussing Ukrainian neutrality, along with the repudiation of any claims for Ukrainian NATO membership in the future.[63] On 29 March, Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, indicated in agreement with French minister Le Drian that any Russian offers of peaceful negotiation about Ukraine, or withdrawal from Kyiv, should be regarded with diplomatic skepticism, based on a history of Russian unreliability in similar peace negotiations with other countries.[64]
Ahead of the 29 March meeting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated that Ukraine was ready to agree to 4 out of Russia's 6 demands. He claimed Ukraine was prepared to renounce NATO membership and to make Russian Ukraine's second official language. According to Erdoğan Ukraine was not prepared to recognise the Russian occupation of Crimea or parts of Luhansk and Donetsk Oblasts.[65] Ukraine proposed adopting a neutral status in exchange for security guarantees along the lines of NATO Article 5. The proposals also included a 15-year consultation period on the status of Russian-annexed Crimea and return of all Russian forces to their pre-invasion positions.[66] Russia's Ministry of Defense announced "drastic reduction of military activity" on the Kyiv and Chernihiv fronts, which, Russian presidential aide Vladimir Medinsky clarified, was not tantamount to a ceasefire.[67] [68] In a televised meeting with military bloggers on 13 June 2023 the Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed that Russia and Ukraine had come on that day to "a good agreement on how to resolve the current situation by peaceful means" but then the Ukrainians "threw it away" after the withdrawal of Russian troops from Kyiv following the failed Russian 2022 offensive on Kyiv.[69] According to Putin, Ukraine had agreed to curb Neo-Nazism in Ukraine through the "introducing appropriate restrictions in the law in Ukraine", but this has failed to happen intentionally.[69] On 17 June 2023 Putin showed what he says was a draft agreement with Ukraine, which was discussed in Turkey late March 2022, during a meeting with an African delegation. Putin claimed there were 18 articles, and "everything is spelled out, from combat equipment to the personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine", and the document was according to Putin signed by the head of the Ukrainian delegation.[70]
In June 2023, Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko claimed, in an interview with Russia-1, that Ukrainian and Russian delegations also discussed the possibility of "some sort of a lease" of Crimea during the March 2022 negotiations.[65] Oleksii Arestovych, a member of the Ukrainian delegation at the talks, also said that Russia was ready for a "political discussion" concerning Crimea.[71] Ukrainian lead negotiator (at this point) Davyd Arakhamia stated in an interview on 24 November 2023 that in March 2022 the Russian delegation had promised Ukraine peace for refusing to join NATO, but that Russia had not given any security guarantees and the Ukrainian delegation did not trust Russia to uphold such an agreement.[72] [73] Arakhamia also refuted Putin's claim that Ukraine had signed any agreement in Turkey because the delegation did not even have the legal right to sign anything - this could only have happened if a meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Putin took place. Arakhamia also claimed that Russian delegation had only cared about Ukraine's neutral status and that the other Russian demands had been "cosmetic and political "seasoning" about denazification, the Russian-speaking population and blah blah blah."
On 7 April, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that the peace deal Ukraine drafted and presented to the Russian government contained "unacceptable" elements. Lavrov said that the proposal diverged from the terms negotiators had agreed on. Mykhaylo Podolyak, a negotiator for Ukraine, said that the comments from Lavrov are a tactic to draw attention away from the war crime accusations against Russian forces. Lastly, Lavrov stated, "Despite all the provocations, the Russian delegation will continue with the negotiation process, pressing for our own draft agreement that clearly and fully outlines our initial and key positions and requirements."[74]
According to a May report from Ukrainska Pravda, the Russian side was ready for a meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin, but it later came to a halt after the discovery of War crimes in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, in particular the Bucha massacre on 1 April. In a surprise visit to Ukraine on 9 April, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said "Putin is a war criminal, he should be pressured, not negotiated with," and that the collective West was not willing to make a deal with Putin. Three days after Johnson left Kyiv, Putin stated publicly that talks with Ukraine "had turned into a dead end". Naftali Bennett said in 2023 that both sides had wanted a ceasefire, the odds of the deal holding had been 50-50, and that the Western powers backing Ukraine had stopped the deal.[75] Later he expressed doubts regarding the desirability of such a deal.[76] [77] Roman Abramovich visited Kyiv in an attempt to resume negotiations. Zelenskyy proposed negotiating two separate documents, one being a bilateral agreement between Ukraine and Russia, and the other involving Ukraine and the West.[78] Ukrainian lead negotiator (at this point) Davyd Arakhamia stated in an interview on 24 November 2023 that the neutral status of Ukraine was the key Russian demand during the negotiations and that the western countries were aware of the negotiations and advised Ukraine not to rely on security guarantees. Arakhamia also denied that Johnson stopped Kyiv from signing an agreement stipulating Ukraine's neutrality saying that the Ukrainian delegation did not have the authority to do it.[70]
On 11 April, the Chancellor of Austria, Karl Nehammer, visited and spoke with Putin in Moscow in 'very direct, open and hard' talks which were skeptical of the short-term peaceful resolution of the invasion.[79] On 26 April, the Secretary-General of the United Nations António Guterres visited Russia for the purpose of speaking with Putin and Lavrov in separate meetings. After the meetings, it was revealed that Putin and Lavrov were skeptical as to reaching any short term resolution of differences between Russia and Ukraine, largely due to very different respective perspectives on the circumstances of the invasion presently being adopted by each of the two nations.[80]
According to U.S. officials who spoke to Foreign Affairs, a provisional agreement was reached in April, whereby the Russian forces would withdraw to the pre-invasion line and Ukraine would commit not to seek to join NATO in exchange for security guarantees from a number of countries. However, in a July interview with Russian state media, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that this compromise was no longer an option, saying that even the Donbas was not enough and that the "geography had changed."[81]
On 13 May, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin initiated a telephone conversation with Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu, the first call since 18 February, before the invasion. The call lasted about an hour with Austin urging an immediate ceasefire.[82] [83] On 15 May, Putin convened the Collective Security Treaty Organization, consisting of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, Tajikistan, and Belarus, to discuss issues of peace and border security related to Ukraine and NATO.[84]
President Zelenskyy denounced suggestions by former US diplomat Henry Kissinger that Ukraine should cede control of Crimea and Donbas to Russia in exchange for peace.[85] On 25 May, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine would not agree to peace until Russia agreed to return Crimea and the Donbas region to Ukraine.[86] Zelenskyy stressed that "Ukrainians are not ready to give away their land, to accept that these territories belong to Russia." He emphasized that Ukrainians own the land of Ukraine.[87] . Kissinger changed his initial suggestion and presented it at the World Economic Forum in Davos in January 2023, where he announced that NATO membership for Ukraine would be an “appropriate outcome” from his perspective.[88]
The 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive was a successful Ukrainian major counteroffensive that began on 6 September 2022.
In September, Ukraine rejected a peace plan proposed by Mexico.[89] On 21 September, Zelenskyy addressed the UN General Assembly with a pre-recorded video, laying out five "non-negotiable" conditions for a "peace formula", comprising "just punishment" of Russia for its crimes committed against Ukraine, protection of life by "all available means allowed by the UN charter", restoring security and territorial integrity, security guarantees from other countries, and determination for Ukraine to continue defending itself.[90] [91] Speaking to Bild, Zelenskyy stated that he saw little chance of holding talks with Putin unless Russia withdrew its forces from Ukrainian territory.[92]
Following Putin's announcement of Russia annexing four regions of Ukrainian territory it had seized during its invasion, Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine would not hold peace talks with Russia while Putin was president.[93] Zelenskyy signed a presidential decree declaring that negotiations with Putin were "impossible", endorsing the decision of the Ukrainian National Security Council.[94] This was a response to Russia's annexation.[95]
Following the October 2022 missile strikes on Ukraine, China and India, who had abstained from condemning Russia at the UN, expressed concern and called for de-escalation and dialogue.[96] Turkish President Erdogan expressed some hope for a diplomatic resolution, saying that Putin "is now more open to possible peace talks" and that Kyiv "was not rejecting such peace talks."[97] The Russian government announced it was ready for a renewed dialogue, and indeed had always been open to negotiating an end to hostilities.[98] The Ukrainian leadership responded that it did not believe Russia was truly committed to peace, and was simply hoping to stall for time while rebuilding its military capabilities for future offensives.[6]
On 3 October 2022, Elon Musk floated a controversial proposal on Twitter, arguing that Ukraine should permanently cede Crimea to Russia, which would be assured of its water supply from Ukraine, and that Ukraine should drop its bid to join NATO.[99] The four-part proposal, posted as a Twitter poll, suggested new referendums under UN supervision on the annexation of Russian-occupied territories.[100] The proposal was welcomed by the Russian government and rebuked by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy as "pro-Russia".[101] [102] [103]
In a video address from 7 November, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy named conditions for negotiating with Russia: "One more time: restoration of territorial integrity, respect for the U.N. charter, compensation for all material losses caused by the war, punishment for every war criminal and guarantees that this does not happen again."[104] [105] US Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff Mark Milley urged Ukraine and Russia to find a "political solution", saying that the war in Ukraine is unwinnable by purely military means.[106] [107] The detailed 10-point peace proposal was published later in November at a G20 meeting.
In a December 2022 interview with the Associated Press, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba called for a February 2023 peace summit at the UN mediated by secretary-general António Guterres. He stated that Ukraine would only invite Russia if the country faced an international court for war crimes.[108]
Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that any peace plan can only proceed from Ukraine's recognition of Russia's sovereignty over the regions it annexed from Ukraine in September 2022.[109]
On 28 December 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that peace talks with Ukraine would only resume if it recognized Russia's sovereignty over the annexed and partially occupied regions.[110]
In January 2023, Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that "there is currently no prospect for diplomatic means of settling the situation around Ukraine."[111]
On 14 March 2023, Peskov said "We have to achieve our goals. Right now this is only possible by military means due to the current position of the Kyiv regime."[112]
Andrii Sybiha, deputy head of Zelenskyy’s office, told the Financial Times: "If we will succeed in achieving our strategic goals on the battlefield and when we will be on the administrative border with Crimea, we are ready to open [a] diplomatic page to discuss this issue."[113] The official position of the Ukrainian government is that the return of Crimea is non-negotiable. In early April 2023 Ukrainian negotiator Mykhailo Podolyak called for Russia to compensate Ukraine and answer for war crimes. Podolyak said Crimea should be re-taken and its new Russian inhabitants expelled. At the same time, Anatol Lieven reported that some Ukrainian government officials suggested Ukraine could exchange Crimea for peace.
In April 2023, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva suggested that Ukraine should "give up Crimea" to end the war, saying Zelenskyy "can not want everything".[114] Lula condemned Russia's violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity and said Russia should withdraw from Ukrainian territory it has occupied since February 2022.[115] He said Brazil advocates a "negotiated political solution to the conflict" and expressed "concern" about the "global consequences" of the war "in terms of food and energy security, especially in the poorest regions of the planet."[116] Ukraine rejected his proposal to give up Crimea in exchange for peace.[117]
Lula proposed the creation of a "peace club" from a group of developing countries, including Brazil and China, which would try to negotiate peace in Ukraine.[118] Lula’s foreign policy adviser Celso Amorim said that "[a]s long as there are no talks, the ideal peace for the Ukrainians and the Russians will not happen. There must be concessions."[116] Lula declared after a state visit to China that "the United States needs to stop encouraging war and start talking about peace". U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby responded by accusing Lula of "parroting Russian and Chinese propaganda", describing his comments as "simply misguided" and "suggesting the United States and Europe are somehow not interested in peace, or that we share responsibility for the war".[119] On 6 April 2023, Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, said about a possible peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, which would freeze the conflict and leave the annexed territories of Ukraine, including Crimea, in Russia's possession, that "If Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky proposes peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow, he will commit political suicide."[120]
On 7 April 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia rejects the "unipolar world order" led by the United States and wants any peace talks with Ukraine to focus on creating a "new world order."[121] On 30 April, Pope Francis announced that the Vatican is taking part in a secret "peace mission" to try to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.[122]
In May 2023, UN Secretary-General António Guterres said peace negotiations to end the Russo-Ukrainian War were "not possible at this moment", saying it was clear that Russia and Ukraine "are completely absorbed in this war" and "are convinced that they can win."[123]
On 16 May, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that the leaders of African countries came up with a new initiative for peace in Ukraine.[124]
On 22 May, Denmark foreign minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen said the country was willing to host a summit in July 2023 aimed at "finding peace between Ukraine and Russia" adding that "it is necessary to build interest and involvement from countries like India, Brazil and China."[125]
On 22 May, Brazilian President Lula da Silva said that the countries of the Global South, including Brazil, India, Indonesia and China "want peace", but both Putin and Zelenskyy "are convinced that they are going to win the war" and do not want to talk about peace, so the war could be very long.[126]
On 3 June, Indonesia's defense minister Prabowo Subianto proposed a multi-point peace plan including a ceasefire and establishing a demilitarised zone observed and monitored by the United Nations Peacekeeping Forces.[127] He said that a UN referendum should be held "to ascertain objectively the wishes of the majority of the inhabitants of the various disputed areas".[128] Prabowo's proposal was criticised by EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell.[129]
Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said that the peace plans presented by China, Brazil and Indonesia are attempts at mediation on behalf of Russia, saying that "they all currently want to be mediators on Russia's side. That's why this sort of mediation currently doesn't fit for us at all because they aren't impartial."[130] Reznikov said that Ukraine is willing to accept China as a mediator for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine only if Beijing could convince Russia to withdraw from all the territories it has occupied in Ukraine.[131]
In June, a delegation from Africa, including representatives from South Africa, Egypt, Senegal, Congo-Brazzaville, Comoros, Zambia, and Uganda, visited Ukraine and Russia to call for peace.[132] Both Russia and Ukraine welcomed the African leaders' mission, but Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warned that "Any peace initiative should respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, it should not imply, even in-between the lines, any cessation of Ukrainian territory to Russia. Second, any peace plan should not lead to the freezing of the conflict."[133] After a meeting with African leaders in Kyiv, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that peace talks with Russia would be possible only after Moscow withdraws its forces from the entire occupied territory.[134] The African delegation was in Kyiv during a Russian missile strike on the city.[135]
On 17 June, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa and other African leaders met Russian President Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg. Ramaphosa told Putin that the war must end.[136] Putin rejected the delegation's peace plan based on accepting Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.[137]
On 29 July, following a meeting with African leaders at the 2023 Russia–Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a ceasefire and peace talks with Ukraine due to the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensive against Russian forces in Russia-occupied southeastern Ukraine, saying "We cannot cease fire when we are under attack."[138]
On 5 and 6 August 2023 Saudi Arabia hosted multinational peace talks attended by 40 countries (including China) in Jeddah focusing on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's proposed peace plan.[139] Russia did not participate in the talks. Prior to the summit Andriy Yermak, Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, said there would be discussions on the Ukrainian Peace Formula, which "contains 10 fundamental points, the implementation of which will not only ensure peace for Ukraine, but also create mechanisms to counter future conflicts in the world".[140] After the summit no joint statement was issued. The participants did agree to create working groups to develop details of key themes prominent in Zelenskyy's proposed peace plan (that calls for Russian troops to withdraw from all of Ukraine’s territory as part of a peace deal) while a parallel ambassadors group would continue technical work on the issues.
On 27 September 2023, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in an interview with TASS that Russia was "ready to make agreements" on Ukraine if they would "take the situation on the ground" and Russian security interests into account. According to Lavrov one of the Russian security interest was "the need to prevent the creation of a hostile Nazi regime near Russian borders." Lavrov also said that Russia did not see "any serious proposals from the West" and he argued that they were promoting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ‘peace formula’ as "the sole basis for negotiations" and that there was "no point in discussing it as it is nothing but an ultimatum."[141] Lavrov also praised the June 2023 African, Arab League (although formally the Arab League never submitted its own peace proposal[142]), Chinese, Brazilian and peace proposals "from other countries" since he claimed "All of them were guided by a sincere desire to facilitate an agreement, which would consider the root causes of the current situation and the need to eliminate them, and will also ensure equal security for all parties."[141]
Slovakia's Prime Minister Robert Fico said that sending more and more weapons to Ukraine has only encouraged more killings and endless war, and instead efforts should be made to reach a cease-fire and push Russia and Ukraine toward peace talks. In September 2023, he stated in an interview: "Why don't we force the warring parties, use the weight of the EU and the U.S. to make them sit down and find some sort of compromise that would guarantee security for Ukraine?"[143] [144] He praised the peace plans to end the war put forward by the Vatican, Brazil and China.[145] Fico said his government would do everything possible to start peace talks between Russia and Ukraine.[146]
NBC News reported that officials at the 11 October 2023 Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting began confidential and delicate talks with the Ukrainian officials about what the broad outlines of possible peace negotiations might entail, according to two U.S. participants.[147]
On 6 November 2023, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy rejected peace talks with Russia. He told NBC television: "I am not ready to speak with the terrorists, because their word is nothing. They have to go out from our territory, only after that, the world can switch on diplomacy."[148]
On 10 November 2023, French President Emmanuel Macron said that what Russia is doing in Ukraine is "imperialism and colonialism" and it was the "duty" of France and other countries to help Ukraine defend itself, but added that maybe the time will come to hold fair peace negotiations and find a solution with Russia.[149]
On 22 November 2023, Putin claimed that Russia was always "ready for talks" to end the "tragedy" of the war in Ukraine, and accused the Ukrainian leadership of rejecting peace talks with Russia.
On 1 December 2023, a tenth working meeting with representatives of 83 states and three international organizations on the implementation of the Ukraine's Peace Formula was held in Kyiv, Ukraine.[150]
In the 15 December 2023 annual press conference Direct Line with Vladimir Putin Russian President Putin stated “there will only be peace in Ukraine when we achieve our aims”; those "objectives do not change", he said, listing "denazification, demilitarisation and its neutral status".[151] About the September 2022 Russian annexed territories of Ukraine Putin said in the press conference that a budget allocated more than a trillion rubles ($11.15 billion) annually for the development of these (in his words) “new regions” and their “integration into the economic and social life” of Russia; he stated that "Of course, in Russia’s other regions, the situation is fundamentally better, because the authorities in Kyiv “did not give these regions the attention they were due.”[152]
On 23 December 2023, The New York Times reported that Putin has been signaling through intermediaries since at least September 2022 that "he is open to a ceasefire that freezes the fighting along the current lines."[153] [154] The New York Times cited U.S. and international officials who received the message from Putin’s envoys and two former senior Russian officials close to the Kremlin.[154] A former senior Russian official told The New York Times that Putin "is willing to stop at the current positions" but is "not willing to retreat one meter."[155]
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he does not feel pressure from allies to agree a ceasefire with Russia.[156] He warned that "any frozen conflict will eventually reignite".[157]
In an interview with Tucker Carlson, Putin said he is ready to negotiate with Zelenskyy, who had previously declared that he would never negotiate with Putin. Putin urged him to reverse that decision. According to Latvia-based Russian journalist Leonid Ragozin, "Putin's endgame appears to be getting an agreement along the lines of what has been tentatively achieved in Istanbul, but this time with all the territories which Russia occupied and formally annexed after these talks fell through. The implied threat is that Ukraine will lose even more territory – not to mention lives and infrastructure – should it keep being stubborn."[158] Putin said "We haven't achieved our [war] aims yet because one of them is denazification". According to Putin, "This means the prohibition of all kinds of neo-Nazi movements."[159] Putin did not mention in the interview that he would have conditions for peace negotiations, such as the removal of Zelenskyy's government.[160] When Carlson asked whether Putin would "be satisfied" with the territory that Russia currently occupies, Putin avoided the question and referred to his previous answer.[161]
According to Russian sources, the United States rejected Putin's proposal for a ceasefire, which reportedly was to freeze the conflict at the current frontlines and for Russia to keep the land it occupied. A US source denied there had been any official contact and said the US would not engage in talks without Ukraine.[162] [163]
On 14 February 2024, the Kremlin denied reports that Putin had secretly proposed a ceasefire.[164]
Putin's alleged secret offers to stop the fighting have contradicted what he and some members of his regime have been saying publicly.[154] On 4 March 2024, Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia's Security Council chaired by Putin, made a speech in which he ruled out peace talks with Ukraine's current leadership. He said any future Ukrainian government that wanted talks would need to accept the Russian occupation. Medvedev described Ukraine as part of Russia,[165] and spoke in front of a large map showing Russia in control of most of the country, with western Ukraine partitioned between Poland, Hungary and Romania.[166]
Pope Francis said in an interview that Ukraine should not be ashamed to talk to Putin "before things get worse", as "the word negotiate is a courageous word", adding that "When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate. Negotiations are never a surrender." Polish Foreign Minister Radek Sikorski responded on X: "How about, for balance, encouraging Putin to have the courage to withdraw his army from Ukraine? Peace would immediately ensue without the need for negotiations."[167]
On 13 March 2024, Vladimir Putin said that "To negotiate just because they (Ukraine) are running out of ammunition is somehow ridiculous on our part. We are, however, ready for a serious conversation, and we want to resolve all conflicts, especially this conflict, through peaceful means. But we must clearly understand that it shouldn't be a break for the enemy to rearm but a serious talk involving security guarantees for the Russian Federation."[168] Responding to Putin's words, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's spokesman said that Putin "can end this war immediately at any time by canceling his (military) campaign, withdrawing his troops (from Ukraine), and going to the negotiating table."[168]
In May 2024, four Russian sources told Reuters that Putin is ready to halt the war in Ukraine and freeze the conflict on the current front lines. The sources said Putin believed the West was trying to derail the ceasefire talks.[169] Ukraine said Putin's claims are aimed at undermining the Ukraine peace summit in June.[170]
Italian Defense Minister Guido Crosetto expressed opposition to further escalation and stressed the need to "leave open the possibility of negotiating an immediate truce and initiating peace talks in the coming months."[171]
On 24 May 2024, China and Brazil jointly presented a new six-point peace plan.[172] The six-point proposal called for an international peace conference "held at a proper time that is recognised by both Russia and Ukraine, with equal participation of all parties as well as fair discussion of all peace plans."[173]
In a speech on 14 June 2024, Putin outlined Russia's terms for a ceasefire. He said that Russia would not negotiate unless Ukraine handed over the provinces of Ukraine claimed by Russia: all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, including the parts Russia does not control. Furthermore, he said that Ukraine had to abandon plans to join NATO, become a neutral country, and never seek to develop nuclear weapons. Putin added that the rights of Russian-speakers in Ukraine must be respected and that sanctions against Russia must be lifted to ensure peace. He claimed that the proposal "is not about freezing the conflict but about its final resolution", and said that if turned down by Ukraine and its allies, then it would be "their political and moral responsibility for continuing the bloodshed".[174] Later that day, President Zelenskyy told Sky TG24 television: "These messages are ultimatum messages. It's the same thing Hitler did, when he said 'give me a part of Czechoslovakia and it'll end here'."[174] Retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg and Frederick H. Fleitz, who both served in Trump’s National Security Council staff, presented presidential candidate Donald Trump with a detailed plan to end Russia's war in Ukraine. The plan proposes a ceasefire on the current front lines, forcing both Russia and Ukraine into peace talks, and continued arms supplies to Ukraine if it agrees to a ceasefire and peace talks. If Russia did not agree to a ceasefire and peace talks, the United States would increase arms supplies to Ukraine. Ukraine would not have to formally cede the occupied and annexed territories to Russia, but would postpone its plans for NATO membership for a longer period of time, and the territories currently under Russian occupation would remain under Russian control. Kellogg told Reuters: "Our concern is that this has become a war of attrition that’s going to kill a whole generation of young men."[175] [176]
See main article: 2024 peace missions by Viktor Orbán. On 2 July 2024 Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited Ukraine, on 5 July proceeding to Russia and on 8 July to China as a self-appointed mediator for ending the war in what he called "peace mission 3.0."[177]
Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of the Putin-led Security Council of Russia, who has routinely threatened to do terrible things to all of Russia's enemies, said on his Telegram channel that Russia would eventually annex the rest of Ukraine even if it agrees to Putin's ceasefire demands.[178]
President Zelenskyy's adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said that one of the goals of the invasion of the Kursk region in Russia in August 2024 was to force Russia into fair peace negotiations.[179] He wrote on Telegram: "We need to inflict significant tactical defeats on Russia. In the Kursk region, we clearly see how the military tool is objectively used to convince the Russian Federation to enter into a fair negotiation process."[180] Kremlin-connected political analyst Sergei Markov said that "Putin has said many times that any peace agreement should take into account the facts on the ground and that Russia will not leave the territory it has taken" and Ukraine is trying "to break this formula and gain Russian territory to exchange."
On 17 August, The Washington Post reported, citing anonymous diplomatic sources, that Ukraine's incursion into Russia disrupted plans for indirect talks in Doha, Qatar to halt mutual strikes on energy infrastructure in Ukraine and Russia. Both Ukraine and Russia had reportedly planned to send their delegations to indirect talks mediated by Qatari officials, but Russian officials postponed the meeting in the wake of Ukraine's incursion. Some officials hoped it could be the first step toward a more comprehensive peace deal.[181] The United States declined to comment.[181] Ukrainian officials told The Washington Post that the indirect talks in Doha had been postponed "due to the situation in the Middle East",[181] but later declined to comment. Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that there were "no direct or indirect negotiations between Russia and Ukraine on the safety of civilian critical infrastructure facilities." Zakharova referred to Putin, who said on August 12 that there could be no negotiations with Ukraine after the ground assault on the Kursk region and what he described as attacks on Russian civilian infrastructure.[182] A Russian academic with close ties to senior Russian diplomats said that Putin probably lost interest in further talks in Qatar because the "Russian leadership usually does not make any compromises under pressure" and attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure are a highly effective tactic, adding that Russia is more interested in talks with Ukraine about a broader ceasefire.[181]
Russia and Ukraine started peace negotiations the next day after the start of the Russian invasion, on 28 February 2022 in Belarus. Initially, Russia demanded Ukraine's effective capitulation. While the Russian blitzkrieg plan to take Kyiv stalled, a series of further meetings took place. By the end of March 2022, Russian and Ukrainian negotiators were successful in getting their positions closer together. After failing to blitz-takeover Kyiv and Kharkiv, taking heavy casualties and being forced to retreat off Kyiv oblast, Putin, as reported by the US magazine Foreign Affairs, was ready to put the status of Crimea up for discussion.[183]
The negotiating teams produced the Istanbul Communiqué, "Key Provisions of the Treaty on Ukraine's Security Guarantees" – a framework of a possible agreement. The treaty would declare Ukraine to be allowed to apply for EU membership and to be a neutral state, put a limit on the size of its military forces, cease NATO membership plans, forbid foreign military bases, and list Russia and Western countries, among which were the US and the UK, as guarantors, obliged to assist Ukraine in case of aggression against it. The status of Crimea would have to be negotiated after 10 to 15 years.[184]
Following the discovery of Russian atrocities in Bucha at the beginning of April 2022 and public anger in Ukraine at the atrocities, Zelenskyy called for Russia to be expelled from the United Nations Security Council, but intense work on the treaty continued. Disagreements still present included Ukraine's military forces' size, and Russia's newly raised demand that in the event of an attack, guarantors come to Ukraine's defence "on the basis of a decision agreed to by all guarantor states", thus giving Russia the possibility to veto a military response by the guarantors. Ukraine rejected the demand.
The talks stopped in May 2022 without reaching an agreement. Putin claimed that Ukraine rejected the deal under pressure from the West. Others saw the negotiations only as a distraction to allow regrouping.
In the magazine Foreign Affairs, political scientists Samuel Charap and Sergey Radchenko studied several versions of the draft agreement, interviewed participants in the talks and officials in several Western governments, and reviewed publicly statements by and interviews with Ukrainian and Russian officials, and compared their evidence with the timeline of events. They argued that the evidence revealed "mutual willingness" of Zelenskyy and Putin to "consider far-reaching concessions to end the war", and that an agreement providing Ukraine with multilateral security guarantees, permanent neutrality and EU membership in the long term, was "almost finalised", however "the communiqué had not resolved some key issues".
Charap and Radchenko argued that four factors in combination led to failure to achieve agreement. According to them, three factors involved specific stakeholders: the unwillingness of Ukraine's Western partners to provide security guarantees; Ukrainian public anger at the Bucha atrocities; and Zelenskyy's increased confidence in a military solution with the failure of the Russian attempt to take over Kyiv. The fourth factor listed by Charap and Radchenko was that solving geopolitical security issues while ignoring immediate peace processes for detailed security issues such as humanitarian corridors, a ceasefire, and the withdrawal of military forces was overambitious, "aim[ing] too high, too soon".
Polish diplomat Jakub Kumoch criticized the analysis of Charap and Radchenko, arguing that they "accepted the Russian narrative" and that the lack of consensus over borders, disarmament of Ukraine and security guarantees blocked any chance of agreement.[185]
In June 2024, the New York Times published several versions of drafts of the treaty that was undergoing negotiations, and published its analysis based on speaking with more than twelve Ukrainian, Russian and Western participants and other people close to the negotiations.
See main article: Ukraine's Peace Formula. In November 2022 at the G20 summit Zelensky presented the second Ukrainian proposal to end the war, a 10-point "peace formula" plan. Radically different from previous "Istanbul Communique" which reached no agreement, the plan is aimed to the international community. It explains Ukraine's position, addresses global issues like food crisis and aims to "strengthen international solidarity with Ukraine". Instead of Istanbul compromise, the plan lists Russian forces withdrawal, the return of deported persons, the prosecution of war crimes, and reparations as conditions to reach before signing a peace treaty. Several international meetings to discuss the peace formula were held in 2023.[186]
The Ukrainian Peace Plan has been publicized at a series of meetings that began on 25 June 2023;[187] [188] the conference, which was held in Copenhagen, was attended by 15 countries.[189] The conference series has been given the name Copenhagen format as a result by some news outlets. The second meeting in Copenhagen format was held in Jeddah on 6 August 2023; China along with about 40 countries participated there.[190] The next meeting was held in Malta on 28 October 2023,[191] [192] with 65 nations in attendance.[193] The next meeting in this format was held in Davos at the World Economic Forum in January 2024; delegates from 83 nations were present.[194] [195]
See main article: China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukrainian Crisis. In February 2023, during a speech at the 59th Munich Security Conference, China's Director of the Office of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission Wang Yi said that Chinese president Xi Jinping would present a peace proposal for the Russian invasion, which he described as a conflict Russian and Ukraine.[196] [197]
At the UN General Assembly marking the anniversary of the invasion, Chinese deputy UN ambassador proposed China's plan including a ceasefire, dialogue, security guarantees for Russia, protection of civilians and the upholding of territorial integrity, while also insisting that the West was exacerbating the situation by sending weapons to Ukraine.[198] [199] On Feb 24, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs published as a 12-point position paper on its website titled "China's Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis", getting mixed responses from Western leaders.[200] [201] President Zelenskyy stated "I plan to meet Xi Jinping and believe this will be beneficial for our countries and for security in the world", although a time and place for such meeting was not set.[202]
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova responded saying Russia appreciated Beijing's effort to resolve the conflict by peaceful means and was "open to achieving the goals of the special military operation by political and diplomatic means" but that it would entail recognising "new territorial realities" in Ukraine, referring to Russia's annexation of Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.[203] Putin's spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that "for now, we don't see any of the conditions that are needed to bring this whole story towards peace."[204]
On 7 March 2023, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang remarked, "the Ukraine crisis seems to be driven by an invisible hand pushing for the protraction and escalation of the conflict." He insisted that sanctions and political pressure will not solve the problem. Qin also said Beijing has not provided weapons to either side of the Ukraine conflict. He added that "the process of peace talks should begin as soon as possible". The PRC has called for peace negotiations since the conflict began to address the legitimate security concerns of all parties involved.[205]
Prior to his visit to Russia on 20-22 March 2023, Xi Jinping said China's peace proposal to end the Russo-Ukrainian War reflected world opinion.[206] U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken questioned China's peace proposal, saying "the world should not be fooled by any tactical move by Russia, supported by China or any other country, to freeze the war on its own terms."[207]
On 26 April 2023, Xi Jinping called Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, over a month after Xi's summit with Russia's President Vladimir Putin.[208] According to Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London, "There is no indication that Xi is trying to get Putin or Russia to make concessions of any sort (and) the Chinese readout (of the call) does not include anything concrete that can start a peace process."[209]
In May 2023, European officials reportedly criticized China's peace plan as an attempt at "freezing" the conflict in place and splitting the West in pushing Ukraine to a cease-fire.[210] [211]
On 23 July 2024, the Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba visited China for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi on ways to achieve a peaceful end to the war with Russia. This was the first such bilateral visit since 2012.[212] [213]
See main article: Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia and Ukraine signed agreements with Turkey and the United Nations on 22 July 2022, intended to secure exports via the Black Sea of grain from both countries and fertilizer from Russia, to ease shortages in developing countries.[214] The next day, Russia fired missiles at the port city of Odesa, through which Ukrainian grain flows[215] and formally declared Ukrainian ports unsafe.[216] As a result of the agreement, the first shipment of Ukraine grain to international destinations started on 1 August 2022.[217]
Key negotiation points proposed or negotiated since the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February 2022 including the following.
| issue | Istanbul Communiqué/draft treaty (Mar/Apr 2022) | Ukraine's Peace Formula (late 2022)[218] | Brazilian–Chinese 6-point plan (May 2024) | Bürgenstock Communiqué (Jun 2024) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| nuclear safety including Zaporizhzhia NPP | UA point 1 | BR–CN point 4: no weapons of mass destruction usage; BR–CN point 5: no attacks on nuclear power stations, respect for Convention on Nuclear Safety | agreement by signees (without RU) | ||
| Asian/African food security | UA point 2 | BR–CN point 6 | agreement by signees (without RU) | ||
| Ukrainian energy infrastructure | UA point 3 | ||||
| prisoners of war, civilian detainees, child deportees | UA point 4 | BR–CN point 3, but release of civilians and return of children out-of-scope | agreement by signees (without RU) | ||
| Russia–Ukraine border (legal) | Crimea to be left to later: agreement;[219] concesssions on other occupied territories | UA point 5 | |||
| RU withdrawal from UA, ceasefire | ceasefire: lack of consensus on details | UA point 6 | BR–CN point 1: stabilise the level of fighting | ||
| war crimes, ICC investigation | UA point 7 | ||||
| ecocide, Kakhovka Dam | UA point 8 | ||||
| security guarantees against aggression | substantial UA-RU agreement, except: Western refusal to provide guarantees; Russian veto power in final draft[220] | UA point 9 | |||
| summit and treaty | Zelenskyy–Putin meeting to take place | UA point 10 | BR–CN point 2[221] | ||
| Ukrainian EU, NATO membership | UA not in NATO (UA proposal); UA in EU: agreement | ||||
| Russian-language rights | RU proposal to modify UA constitution and laws: rejected by UA | ||||
| limits on size of UA military | accepted in principle by UA, but disagreement on numbers | ||||
| stable global trade (non-food) | BR–CN point 6 |
In the poll conducted by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) between 13 and 18 May 2022, 82% of Ukrainians said they did not support any territorial concessions to Russia, even if that meant prolonging the war.[222] Another KIIS poll conducted in September 2022 found that 87% of Ukrainians opposed any territorial concessions to Russia.[223] A Gallup poll conducted in Ukraine in early September 2022 showed that 70% of Ukrainians want to continue the war with Russia until they achieve victory, while only 26% favor negotiations to end the war as soon as possible.[224] According to an opinion poll conducted in July 2022, 58% of Ukrainians said that Crimea must be returned to Ukraine.[120] In a survey conducted by the KIIS between 26 May and 1 June 2024, 58% of Ukrainians said they opposed concessions in negotiations with Russia, down from 80% in May 2022.[225]
According to a survey conducted by the Levada Center at the end of October 2022, 57% of Russian respondents favored the start of peace talks with Ukraine, and 36% preferred the continuation of hostilities.[226] The Kremlin's analysis concluded that public support in Russia for the war was broad but not deep, and that most Russians would accept anything Putin would call a victory. In September 2023, the head of the VTsIOM state pollster Valery Fyodorov said in an interview that only 10-15% of Russians actively supported the war, and that "most Russians are not demanding the conquest of Kyiv or Odesa."[154]
A poll of Germans conducted by the Forsa and published in January 2023 found that over 80% believe it is more important to end the war through negotiations than for Ukraine to win, with only 18% disagreeing.[227] A YouGov poll showed that in February 2023, 63% of respondents in Sweden wanted to support Ukraine in a war with Russia until Russian troops leave all occupied territories, even if it means prolonging the war. In Denmark, the corresponding figures were 56%; in Britain 53%, in the United States 46%, in Spain 44%; Germany 40%, France 37% and Italy 29%.[228]
Between May and October 2023, US public support for arming Ukraine in its war against Russia decreased. Support for US weapon shipments to Ukraine dropped from 46% to 41% compared to a poll taken in May 2023. Both sides of the political spectrum saw a decline. Since the counteroffensive started in June 2023, Ukrainian forces have only retaken a series of small villages and settlements and are only in control of a small percentage of the territories occupied by Russian forces.[229]