| Country: | Pakistan |
| Type: | parliamentary |
| Previous Election: | 2013 Pakistani general election |
| Previous Year: | 2013 |
| Election Date: | 25 July 2018 |
| Next Election: | 2024 Pakistani general election |
| Next Year: | 2024 |
| Seats For Election: | All 342 seats in the National Assembly |
| Majority Seats: | 172 |
| Turnout: | 51.7%[1] (3.3pp) |
| Image1: | Imran Khan 2019.jpg |
| Leader1: | Imran Khan |
| Leaders Seat1: | Mianwali-I |
| Party1: | Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf |
| Seats1: | 149 |
| Seat Change1: | 114 |
| Last Election1: | 16.92%, 35 seats |
| Popular Vote1: | 16,903,702 |
| Percentage1: | 31.82% |
| Swing1: | 14.90pp |
| Leader2: | Shehbaz Sharif |
| Leaders Seat2: | Lahore-X |
| Party2: | Pakistan Muslim League (N) |
| Seats2: | 82 |
| Seat Change2: | 84 |
| Popular Vote2: | 12,934,589 |
| Percentage2: | 24.35% |
| Swing2: | 8.42pp |
| Leader3: | Bilawal Bhutto Zardari |
| Leaders Seat3: | Larkana-I |
| Image3: | Bilawal Bhutto Zardari.png |
| Party3: | Pakistan Peoples Party |
| Seats3: | 54 |
| Seat Change3: | 12 |
| Last Election3: | 15.23%, 42 seats |
| Popular Vote3: | 6,924,356 |
| Percentage3: | 13.03% |
| Swing3: | 2.29pp |
| Map Size: | 350px |
| Prime Minister | |
| Posttitle: | Subsequent Prime Minister |
| Before Election: | Shahid Khaqan Abbasi |
| Before Party: | Pakistan Muslim League (N) |
| After Election: | Imran Khan |
| After Party: | Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf |
General elections were held in Pakistan on 25 July 2018 to elect the members of the 15th National Assembly and the four Provincial Assemblies. The three major parties were Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by Imran Khan, the Pakistan Muslim League, led by Shehbaz Sharif, and the Pakistan People's Party, led by Bilawal Bhutto. The PTI won the most seats in the National Assembly but fell short of a majority; the party subsequently formed a coalition government with several smaller parties. At the provincial level, the PTI remained the largest party in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP); the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) retained its dominance in Sindh; and the newly formed Balochistan Awami Party (BAP) emerged as the largest party in Balochistan. In Punjab, the result was a hung parliament, with the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML(N)) winning the most seats. However, after several independent MPAs joined the PTI, the latter became the largest party and was able to form a government.
Opinion polling prior to the campaigns starting had initially shown leads for the Pakistan Muslim League (N) (PML(N)) over the PTI. However, from an 11-point lead, the PML(N)'s lead began to diminish in the final weeks of the campaign, with some polls close to the election showing the PTI with a marginal but increasing lead. In the lead-up to the elections, there were rumours about pre-poll rigging being conducted by the judiciary, the military and the intelligence agencies to sway the election results in favour of the PTI and against the PML(N).[2] [3] However, Reuters polling suggested PML(N)'s lead had genuinely narrowed in the run-up to the elections, and that the party had suffered "blow after blow" which caused setbacks to any hopes of re-election.[4]
Election day saw the PTI receive 32% of the vote (its highest share of the vote since its foundation), while the PML(N) received 24%. Following the elections, six major parties including PML(N) claimed there had been large-scale vote rigging and administrative malpractices.[5] [6] [7] Imran Khan, chairman of the PTI, proceeded to form a coalition government, announcing his cabinet shortly after the elections.[8] The newly formed coalition government included members of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pakistan Muslim League (Q).[9]
Regarding the voting process, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) outrightly rejected reports of rigging and stated that the elections had been fair and free.[10] [11] [12] A top electoral watchdog, Free and Fair Election Network (FAFEN), also said that the 2018 general elections in Pakistan had been "more transparent in some aspects" than the previous polls.[13] In its preliminary report, the European Union Election Observation Mission said that no rigging had been observed during the election day in general, but found a "lack of equality" and criticized the process more than it had in the Pakistani election of 2013.[14] [15]
This was also the third consecutive election from Pakistan's most recent transition to democracy where a democratic handover of power was observed.[16] The day after the election, despite reservations over the result, PML(N) conceded defeat.[17] Pakistan's election commission reiterated its position, rejecting reports of rigging.[18] The voter turnout dropped from 55.0% in 2013 to 51.7%.[19]
Although the election commission rejected rigging allegations,[20] there were claims that Khan was able to lure more electable candidates to his party than PML(N), which led to suggestions that there was electoral inequality.[21] However, the newly minted opposition decided against boycotting parliament, lending legitimacy to the electoral process by parliamentary participation.[22] [23] [24] Initially a recount was ordered in 14 constituencies because of procedural errors.[25] Moreover, procedural errors then led to a recount on 70 constituencies by the election commission (more than the winners margin of victory in Punjab and Federal elections).[26] After the conclusion of these recounts, the ECP published a seat tally which confirmed PTI's position of being the largest party in the National Assembly.[27] The margin for the Punjab election was narrow between Khan's PTI and Pakistan Muslim League (N), but independents and Pakistan Muslim League (Q) factions endorsed federal winners PTI, which led to Khan's party forming government in Punjab also.[28] Thus PML(N) lost the elections both at the provincial and the federal level,[29] becoming the opposition, nominating Shehbaz Sharif to be leader of the opposition at the federal level[30] and his son Hamza Shahbaz as opposition leader in Punjab.[31]
Following the elections in 2013, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), led by twice Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif, emerged as the largest party with 166 seats out of a total of 342 in the National Assembly. Although this was short of a majority, Sharif was able to form a government after several independents joined his party.[32]
During the election campaign, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), led by prominent cricketer turned politician Imran Khan, was widely expected to have huge success in the polls. The party fell short of these expectations, instead only taking 35 seats. It became the 3rd largest party in the National Assembly and formed a coalition government in the restive north-western province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.[33]
PTI had initially conceded the elections to PML (N), although they asked for manual recounts to be carried out in several constituencies where rigging had been allegedly carried out.[34] [35] These calls were not answered by the government or the Supreme Court, despite a 2,100 page white paper by the party which allegedly contained evidence of vote-rigging in favour of the PML (N).[36] The Azadi March of 2014 (Azadi meaning Freedom in Urdu) was started by Khan on 14 August 2014 which demanded the government to call a snap election. The sit-in in Islamabad continued for 126 days, until the 2014 Peshawar school massacre occurred, which forced Khan to end the protest for the sake of 'national unity'.[37] A judicial commission was formed by the government which would probe the allegations of vote-rigging: it found the election to have been largely conducted in a free and fair manner, while also stating that PTI's request for a probe was not "entirely unjustified".[38]
On 3 April 2016 the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) made 11.5 million secret documents, later known as the Panama Papers, available to the public.[39] The documents, sourced from Panamanian law firm Mossack Fonseca, among other revelations about other public figures in many other countries, included details of eight offshore companies with links to the family of Nawaz Sharif, the then-incumbent Prime Minister of Pakistan, and his brother Shehbaz Sharif, the incumbent Chief Minister of Punjab.[40] According to the ICIJ, Sharif's children Maryam Nawaz, Hassan Nawaz and Hussain Nawaz "were owners or had the right to authorise transactions for several companies".[41]
Sharif refused to resign and instead make an unsuccessful attempt to form a judicial commission. The opposition leader Khan filed a petition to the Supreme Court of Pakistan on 29 August seeking the disqualification of Sharif from public office (which would automatically remove him of the office of Prime Minister). This petition was also supported by prominent political leaders Sheikh Rasheed (AML) and Siraj-ul-Haq (PAT). Khan called, once again, for his supporters to put Islamabad in lockdown until Sharif resigned, although this was called off soon before it was meant to take place.[42]
On 20 April 2017, on a 3-2 verdict, the Supreme Court decided against the disqualification of Sharif, instead calling for a Joint Investigation Team (JIT) to be created which would probe these allegations further.[43]
On 10 July 2017, JIT submitted a 275-page report in the apex court.[44] [45] The report requested NAB to file a reference against Sharif, his daughter Maryam, and his sons under section 9 of National Accountability Ordinance. Additionally, the report claimed that his daughter Maryam was guilty of falsifying documents, as she submitted a document from 2006 which used the Calibri font despite the font itself not being available for public use until 2007.[46]
On 28 July 2017, following the submittal of the JIT report, the Supreme Court unanimously decided that Sharif was dishonest, therefore not fulfilling the requirements of articles 62 and 63 of the constitution which require one who holds public office to be Sadiq and Ameen (Urdu for Truthful and Virtuous). Hence, he was disqualified as Prime Minister and as a Member of the National Assembly.[47] [48] The court also ordered National Accountability Bureau to file a reference against Sharif, his family and his former Finance Minister Ishaq Dar on corruption charges.[49]
The 342 members of the National Assembly are elected by two methods in three categories; 272 are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting;[50] 60 are reserved for women and 10 for religious minority groups; both sets of reserved seats use proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold.[51] This proportional number, however, is based on the number of seats won rather than votes cast.[52] To win a simple majority, a party would have to take 137 seats.[53]
The 2018 General Elections were held under new delimitation can of constituencies as a result of 2017 Census of Pakistan.[54] Parliament of Pakistan amended the Constitution, allowing a one-time exemption for redrawing constituency boundaries using 2017 provisional census results.[55] As per the notification issued on 5 March 2018, the Islamabad Capital Territory (ICT) now has three constituencies, Punjab 141, Sindh 61, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 39, Balochistan 16 and Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has 12 constituencies in the National Assembly.[56] [57] [58] 106 million people were registered to vote for members of the National Assembly of Pakistan and four Provincial Assemblies.[59]
Likewise for elections to provincial assemblies, Punjab has 297 constituencies, Sindh 130, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 99 and Balochistan 51.[60]
In June 2017 the Economic Coordination Committee approved the procurement of new printing machines with a bridge loan of 864 million rupees.[61] The government has also developed new software for the Election Commission of Pakistan and NADRA to ensure a "free, fair, impartial, transparent and peaceful general election."[62] The former Federal Law Minister Zahid Hamid elaborated that youth reaching the age of 18 will automatically be registered as voters when they apply for a CNIC from NADRA.
Following the disqualification of Nawaz Sharif, several by-elections were held throughout Pakistan.
The first of these was the by-election in Sharif's former constituency, NA-120 Lahore, which is located in the capital city of the Punjab province, a province where the PML (N) was the ruling party. It retained this seat, albeit with a much reduced majority due to gains by the PTI and minor Islamist parties.[63]
The second of these was a by election in Peshawar, capital city of the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, where the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf| was the ruling party. NA-4 once again voted for PTI, despite a reduced majority: once again mainly due to the rise of Islamist parties. These by-elections largely were largely seen as indicators that the ruling parties in both Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab were still electorally strong.[64]
On 15 December 2017, Jahangir Khan Tareen, General Secretary of the PTI, was disqualified from holding public office. Hence, his NA-154 Lodhran seat was vacated.[65]
In a previous by-election in this constituency in 2015, Tareen won this seat with a majority in excess of 35,000 votes. Therefore, this seat was seen as a stronghold for the PTI.
In what was seen as an upset result, Iqbal Shah of the PML (N) won this by-election with a majority over 25,000 votes against Jahangir Tareen's son, Ali Tareen. Many saw this as a failure on the PTI's behalf, and the result led to a drop in morale for PTI workers.[66]
The National Assembly and provincial assemblies of Pakistan dissolved as early as 28 May for Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Sindh, and as late as 31 May for Punjab, Balochistan, and the National Assembly.[67]
The assemblies dissolved during the holy month of Ramadan, a month where Muslims worldwide refrain from eating or drinking from sunrise to sundown. Hence, most major parties did not start campaigning until late June.[68]
On 4 June, parties and individuals started filing nomination papers for the elections. This process continued until 8 June.[69] After this, the returning officer in each constituency began scrutiny of the nominated candidates and decided whether or not to accept the nomination papers.
The scrutiny resulted in many high-profile politicians having their nomination papers rejected: Imran Khan (chairman of PTI), Farooq Sattar (chairman of Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan) (MQM-P)) and Pervez Musharraf (chairman of All Pakistan Muslim League and former President), had their nomination papers rejected. Both Sattar and Khan had their nomination papers later accepted.[70] [71] [72]
Additionally, politicians Fawad Chaudhry (Information Secretary of PTI) and Shahid Khaqan Abbasi (former Prime Minister) were disqualified from contesting these elections by election tribunals due to the non declaration of assets in their nomination papers. This was controversial because election tribunals were seen as not having the jurisdiction to disqualify candidates, rather only to accept or reject their nomination papers. The Lahore High Court eventually overturned these judgements and allowed the respective candidates to contest their elections.[73] [74] Two major politicians of Tehreek-e-Insaf from Chakwal, Sardar Ghulam Abbas and Sardar Aftab Akbar Khan were disqualified to contest elections producing major problem in Chakwal district for the party.[75]
Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) launched its election campaign on 25 June 2018 from Karachi.[76] On 5 July 2018, PMLN unveiled its election manifesto.[77] Nevertheless, it has been stated there was, "lack of equality of opportunity" in the pre-election campaign, and there were systematic attempts to undermine the ruling party PML(N).
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf started its election campaign on 24 June 2018 from Mianwali.[78] On 9 July 2018, Imran Khan launched PTI's election manifesto.[79] On 23 July 2018, PTI concluded its electioneering with rallies in Lahore.[80]
On 28 June 2018, PPP became the first political party to unveil its election manifesto.[81] PPP kicked off its election campaign on 30 June 2018, as Bilawal inaugurated their election office in Lyari, Karachi.[82]
See main article: Opinion polling for the Pakistani general election, 2018.
| Pollster | Publisher | Sample | PTI | PPP | ANP | Others | Lead | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:#E3E80F;" | data-sort-type="number" style="background:;" | |||||||
| ECP | 53,123,733 | 24.35% | 31.82% | 13.01% | 1.38% | 4.81% | 1.53% | 22.98% | 7.47% | |||
| SDPI[83] | Herald | 6,004 | 25% | 29% | 20% | 3% | 1% | 20% | 4% | |||
| IPOR[84] | GSP | 3,735 | 32% | 29% | 13% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 20% | 3% | ||
| 6 June 2018 | Gallup Pakistan[85] | Geo/Jang | 3,000 | 26% | 25% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 30% | 1% | ||
| Pulse Consultant | 3,163 | 27% | 30% | 17% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 20% | 3% | |||
| Gallup Pakistan[86] | Self | 3,000 | 38% | 25% | 15% | 22% | 13% | |||||
| Gallup Pakistan[87] | WSJ | 2,000 | 36% | 24% | 17% | 23% | 12% | |||||
| Gallup Pakistan[88] | Geo/Jang | 3,000 | 34% | 26% | 15% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 19% | 8% | ||
| 25 October 2017 | 3,243 | 36% | 23% | 15% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 22% | 13% | |||
| 24 October 2017 | IPOR[89] [90] | GSP | 4,540 | 38% | 27% | 17% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 14% | 11% | |
| 24 Apr 2017 | Gallup Pakistan[91] | Self | 1,400 | 36% | 25% | 16% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 16% | 11% | |
| 38% | 22% | 17% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 14% | 16% | |||||
| 27 Aug 2015 | SDPI[92] [93] | 3,014 | 27% | 33% | 14% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 20% | 6% | ||
| 17 Jul 2014 | SDPI[94] | Herald | 1,354 | 17% | 33% | 19% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 18% | 14% | |
| [95] | ECP | 45,388,404 | 32.77% | 16.92% | 15.23% | 5.41% | 3.22% | 1.00% | 25.57% | 15.85% | ||