2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election explained

Election Name:	2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
Flag Image:	Flag of Oregon.svg
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2014 Oregon gubernatorial election
Previous Year:	2014
Next Election:	2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2018
Election Date:	November 8, 2016
Image1:	File:Kate Brown in 2017 (3x4a).jpg
Nominee1:	Kate Brown
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Alliance1:	Working Families Party
Popular Vote1:	985,027
Percentage1:	50.6%
Nominee2:	Bud Pierce
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	845,609
Percentage2:	43.5%
Map Size:	250px
Governor
Before Election:	Kate Brown
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Kate Brown
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election took place on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of Oregon, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections for the U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives, other gubernatorial elections and various state and local elections.

The election determined who would fill the remaining two years of the term of Democratic governor John Kitzhaber, who was re-elected in 2014 and resigned in February 2015. Incumbent Democratic governor Kate Brown, who as Oregon Secretary of State succeeded to the governorship, ran for election to the office. In primary elections held on May 17, Brown easily captured the Democratic nomination, and the Republicans picked Salem oncologist Bud Pierce.

Brown won the election and became the first openly LGBT person elected to a term as governor in U.S. history. This election was the first time since 1990 that a woman was elected Governor of Oregon.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Julian Bell, critical care and pulmonary medicine specialist^[1]
• Kate Brown, incumbent governor^[2]
• Chet Chance, professional driver^[3]
• Kevin M. Forsythe, Walmart employee^[3]
• Steve Johnson, health worker^{[3] [4]}
• Dave Stauffer, environmental engineer^[3]

Declined

• Brad Avakian, State Labor Commissioner (running for secretary of state)^[5]
• Tina Kotek, Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives^[6]
• Ted Wheeler, state treasurer (running for Mayor of Portland)^{[6] [7]}

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Allen Alley, former chairman of the Oregon Republican Party, nominee for Oregon State Treasurer in 2008 and candidate for governor in 2010^[8]
• Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014^[9]
• Bob Forthan, perennial candidate^[9]
• Bob Niemeyer, engineering company owner and candidate for OR-01 in 2014^[10]
• Bud Pierce, physician^{[11] [12] [13] [14]}

Declined

• Shane Bemis, Mayor of Gresham^[15]
• Knute Buehler, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012^{[16] [17]}
• Sid Leiken, Lane County Commissioner, former mayor of Springfield and candidate for Oregon's 4th congressional district in 2010 (running for secretary of state)^[18]
• Julie Parrish, state representative^{[15] [19]}
• Dennis Richardson, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014 (running for secretary of state)^[20]
• Sherrie Sprenger, state representative^[21]
• Monica Wehby, pediatric neurosurgeon and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2014^[22]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Allen Alley	Bruce Cuff	Bob Forthan	Bob Neimeyer	Bud Pierce	Undecided
DHM Research	May 6–9, 2016	324	± 5.7%	22%	3%	1%	5%	align=center	25%	align=center	44%

Results

Independent Party primary

The Independent Party of Oregon officially qualified as a major party on August 17, 2015.^[23]

Candidates

Declared

• Patrick Barney^[3]
• Cliff Thomason, realtor^[3]

Declined

• Betsy Johnson, Democratic state senator^[24]

Results

Minor parties

• Aaron Donald Auer (Constitution Party), candidate for governor in 2014^{[25] [26]}
• James Foster (Libertarian Party), candidate for OR-01 in 2014^{[25] [27]}

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 13, 2016 - C-SPAN
• Complete video of debate, October 20, 2016 - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
align=left	The Cook Political Report^[28]		August 12, 2016
align=left	Daily Kos^[29]		November 8, 2016
align=left	Rothenberg Political Report^[30]		November 3, 2016
align=left	Sabato's Crystal Ball^[31]		November 7, 2016
align=left	Real Clear Politics^[32]		November 1, 2016
align=left	Governing^[33]		October 27, 2016

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Bud Pierce (R)	Cliff Thomason (I)	James Foster (L)	Other	Undecided
SurveyMonkey	November 1–7, 2016	1,595	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	41%	—	—	—	3%
SurveyMonkey	October 31 – November 6, 2016	1,483	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	40%	—	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 28 – November 3, 2016	1,150	± 4.6%	align=center	56%	40%	—	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 27 – November 2, 2016	934	± 4.6%	align=center	55%	41%	—	—	—	4%
SurveyMonkey	October 26 – November 1, 2016	809	± 4.6%	align=center	54%	41%	—	—	—	5%
SurveyMonkey	October 25–31, 2016	743	± 4.6%	align=center	54%	42%	—	—	—	4%
FOX 12 Oregon/DHM Research	October 24–29, 2016	504	± 4.4%	align=center	42%	33%	4%	3%	4%	15%
Clout Research (R)	October 20–21, 2016	928	± 3.2%	align=center	45%	43%	—	—	6%	6%
KGW Oregonian/Riley Research	October 4–14, 2016	608	± 4.0%	align=center	48%	34%	—	—	—	13%
Oregon Public Broadcasting/DHM Research	October 6–13, 2016	600	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	33%	4%	3%	—	12%
KATU-TV/SurveyUSA	October 10–12, 2016	654	± 3.9%	align=center	46%	42%	—	—	4%	8%
iCitizen	September 2–7, 2016	610	± 4.0%	align=center	44%	27%	3%	3%	—	23%
KATU-TV/DHM Research	September 1–6, 2016	517	± 4.3%	align=center	43%	35%	—	—	—	18%
Clout Research (R)	July 9–13, 2016	701	± 3.7%	align=center	43%	42%	5%	2%	—	7%
iCitizen	June 23–27, 2016	555	± 4.0%	align=center	42%	35%	—	—	—	23%
Action Solutions →	June 1–2, 2016	600	± 5.7%	align=center	39%	37%	—	—	—	24%
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	align=center	45%	27%	—	—	—	28%

→ Indicates an internal poll conducted on behalf of Bud Pierce.

with Allen Alley

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Allen Alley (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	align=center	47%	32%	—	21%

with Shane Bemis

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Shane Bemis (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	align=center	45%	26%	—	28%

with Dennis Richardson

Poll source	Date(s) administered	class=small	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Dennis Richardson (R)	Other	Undecided
Moore Information	April 20, 2015	500	± 4.0%	align=center	48%	41%	—	12%

Results

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

• Tillamook (largest city: Tillamook)

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

• Clatsop (largest city: Astoria)

Results by congressional district

Brown won 3 of the state's 5 congressional districts. Pierce won the other two, including one that elected a Democrat.

District	Kate Brown	Bud Pierce	Elected Representative
		53.68%	40.52%		Suzanne Bonamici
		38.14%	55.10%		Greg Walden
		68.44%	26.31%		Earl Blumenauer
		46.87%	46.41%		Peter DeFazio
		45.46%	49.43%		Kurt Schrader

External links

Nominees

• Aaron Donald Auer (C) for Governor
• Kate Brown (D) for Governor
• James Foster (L) for Governor
• Bud Pierce (R) for Governor
• Cliff Thomason (I) for Governor

Primary candidates

• Julian Bell (D) for Governor
• Steve Johnson (D) for Governor
• Chet Chance (D) for Governor
• Allen Alley (R) for Governor
• Bob Niemeyer (R) for Governor
• Patrick Barney (I) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Climate Change Fuels a Run For Governor. Eugene Weekly. Mortensen. Camilla. October 1, 2015. October 6, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20151005034614/http://www.eugeneweekly.com/20151001/news-briefs/climate-change-fuels-run-governor. October 5, 2015. dead.
2. Theriault, Denis C. (September 18, 2015) "Kate Brown makes clear she's running for governor", The Oregonian. Retrieved September 18, 2015.
3. Web site: Election 2016: Who's running for office in Oregon? Portland? We've got your list right here. The Oregonian. March 9, 2016. April 7, 2016. Ian. Kullgren.
4. Web site: Steve Johnson 2016 | Home . sbjforgovernor.org . 6 June 2022 . https://web.archive.org/web/20160331055514/http://sbjforgovernor.org/ . 31 March 2016 . dead.
5. Web site: Oregon labor commissioner announces run for secretary of state. The Oregonian. Theriault. Denis C.. October 6, 2015. October 6, 2015.
6. Web site: Meet Kate Brown. Politico. Topaz. Jonathan. February 13, 2015. October 6, 2015.
7. Web site: Ted Wheeler: 'I'm running for mayor of Portland'. The Oregonian. Schmidt. Brad. September 9, 2015. October 6, 2015.
8. Web site: Shakeup in governor's race: Allen Alley wants Republican nomination. March 7, 2016. March 7, 2016. Denis C. . Theriault. The Oregonian.
9. Web site: Report: Allen Alley running for Oregon governor. KGW. Gordeon. Friedman. March 2, 2016. March 3, 2016. March 3, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160303215230/http://www.kgw.com/news/politics/report-allen-alley-running-for-oregon-governor/65007643. dead.
10. Web site: Another Republican has filed for the 2016 Oregon governor's race. The Oregonian. Theriault. Denis C.. September 29, 2015. October 6, 2015.
11. Web site: About Our Clinic. https://web.archive.org/web/20110715055942/http://www.hemoncofsalem.com/about/meet-our-practitioners/bud-pierce. dead. 2011-07-15. 2016-01-28. Hematology Oncology of Salem.
12. Web site: The Lund Report. Sep 24, 2015. 2016-01-28. The Lund Report. Gray. Chris.
13. Web site: Republican doctor from Salem contemplates gubernatorial run. March 16, 2015. March 16, 2015. Ian K.. Kullgren. The Oregonian.
14. Web site: Kate Brown confirms she'll run for governor. September 18, 2015. September 18, 2015. The Associated Press.
15. Web site: Middle-ground Republican could give Brown a race. April 19, 2015. April 21, 2015. Steve. Forrester. The Daily Astorian.
16. Web site: Buehler says he may run for Oregon governor in 2016. July 13, 2015. July 13, 2015. Taylor W.. Anderson. The Bulletin.
17. Web site: Knute Buehler says he won't run for governor, wants to stay in House. The Oregonian. Theriault. Denis C.. August 25, 2015. October 6, 2015.
18. Web site: Lane County Commissioner Sid Leiken out of Oregon governor's race, seeks Secretary of State post instead. June 30, 2015. July 13, 2015. Elon. Glucklich. The Register-Guard. July 16, 2015. https://web.archive.org/web/20150716195900/http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/33248072-75/lane-county-commissioner-sid-leiken-out-of-oregon-governors-race.html.csp. dead.
19. Web site: GOP Rep. Julie Parrish announces that she won't run for statewide office in 2016, despite speculation that she will #orleg #orpol. April 21, 2015. April 21, 2015. Saul. Hubbard. Twitter.
20. Web site: Dennis Richardson 'not interested in running' in 2016. The Bend Bulletin. Anderson. Taylor W.. August 28, 2015. October 6, 2015.
21. Web site: Election 2016: Linn County Republican says she's been 'approached' for governor's race. April 23, 2015. April 23, 2015. Denis C.. Theriault. The Oregonian.
22. Web site: Monica Wehby says she won't run for governor in 2016 after all. OregonLive. September 2, 2015.
23. Web site: Independent Party of Oregon qualifies as a major party. August 17, 2015. August 18, 2015. Jeff. Mapes. The Oregonian.
24. Web site: Johnson tour sparks speculation she's running for governor. August 16, 2015. August 18, 2015. Hillary. Borrud. East Oregonian.
25. Web site: Candidate Filings. pdf. July 30, 2016.
26. Web site: Aaron Donald Auer. Constitution Party of Oregon. July 30, 2016. August 16, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20160816135037/http://www.constitutionpartyoregon.net/Aaron%20Auer%20Bio.htm. dead.
27. Web site: James Foster. https://web.archive.org/web/20160518023055/http://www.lporegon.org/index.php/2016-elections/2016-candidate-statements/24-governor/85-james-foster. dead. May 18, 2016. Libertarian Party of Oregon. July 30, 2016.
28. Web site: 2016 Governor Race ratings . The Cook Political Report . October 15, 2018.
29. Web site: Elections 2015-16 . Daily Kos . October 15, 2018 .
30. Web site: Gubernatorial Ratings . The Rothenberg Political Report . October 15, 2018.
31. Web site: Our Final 2016 picks . Sabato's Crystal Ball . October 15, 2018 . October 15, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181015114619/http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/our-final-2016-picks/ . dead .
32. Web site: 2016 Election Maps - 2016 Governor Races . Real Clear Politics . October 15, 2018.
33. Web site: 2016 Governors Races Ratings & News. Governing Magazine. October 28, 2016. October 27, 2016. https://web.archive.org/web/20161027090343/http://www.governing.com/governor-races-2016. dead.