2018 Oregon gubernatorial election explained

Election Name:	2018 Oregon gubernatorial election
Country:	Oregon
Type:	presidential
Ongoing:	no
Previous Election:	2016 Oregon gubernatorial special election
Previous Year:	2016 (special)
Next Election:	2022 Oregon gubernatorial election
Next Year:	2022
Election Date:	November 6, 2018
Image1:	File:Kate Brown P20211022AS-2274 (51761372021) (3x4a).jpg
Nominee1:	Kate Brown
Party1:	Democratic Party (United States)
Alliance1:	Working Families
Popular Vote1:	934,498
Percentage1:	50.05%
Nominee2:	Knute Buehler
Party2:	Republican Party (United States)
Popular Vote2:	814,988
Percentage2:	43.65%
Map Size:	250px
Governor
Before Election:	Kate Brown
Before Party:	Democratic Party (United States)
After Election:	Kate Brown
After Party:	Democratic Party (United States)

The 2018 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor of Oregon to serve a full four-year term. In the 2016 special election, Democratic Governor Kate Brown had been elected to serve the last two years of John Kitzhaber's term.^[1]

The Republican Party nominated Knute Buehler, her opponent in the 2012 Oregon Secretary of State election; the Independent Party of Oregon nominated Patrick Starnes. Brown, running for a full term, won the election; because of term limits, she became ineligible to seek the governorship again.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

• Kate Brown, incumbent governor^[2]
• Ed Jones^[3]
• Candace Neville^[3]

Results

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

• Keenan Bohach^[3]
• Knute Buehler, Orthopedic Surgeon, state representative and nominee for secretary of state in 2012^[4]
• Sam Carpenter, businessman and candidate for the U.S. Senate in 2014 and 2016^{[5] [6] [7]}
• Jonathan Edwards III^[3]
• Brett Hyland^[3]
• Jeff Smith, small business owner^[8]
• David Stauffer^[3]
• Jack Tracy^[3]
• Greg Wooldridge, former Blue Angels commanding officer^[9]

Withdrew

• Bruce Cuff, real estate broker and candidate for governor in 2014 and 2016 (endorsed Greg Wooldridge)^{[3] [10]}

Declined

• Lori Chavez-DeRemer, Mayor of Happy Valley and nominee for the state house in 2016^{[11] [4] [12]}
• Cedric Ross Hayden, state representative^[13]
• Mike McLane, House Minority Leader^[14]
• Bud Pierce, physician and nominee for governor in 2016^{[15] [16]}
• Bill Post, state representative^{[13] [4]}
• Dennis Richardson, Oregon Secretary of State, former state representative and nominee for governor in 2014^[17]

Debates

Host
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Date	Link(s)	Participants
Knute Buehler		Sam Carpenter	Greg Wooldridge
KXL-FM	May 11, 2018	^[18]	Invited	Invited	Invited

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Knute Buehler	Sam Carpenter	Lori	Greg Wooldridge	Other	Undecided
Global Strategy Group (D)	May 3–6, 2018	438	± 4.7%	align=center	33%	25%	–	8%	–	align=center	33%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)	April 19–22, 2018	1,013	± 3.1%	align=center	39%	24%	–	12%	6%	20%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)	March 19–25, 2018	628	–	23%	23%	–	4%	–	align=center	50%
iCitizen	September 13–28, 2017	168	± 3.9%	28%	–	8%	align=center	31%	6%	26%

Results

Independent Party primary

Candidates

Declared

• Skye Allen^[3]
• Dan Pistoresi^[3]
• Patrick Starnes^[3]

Results

General election

Debates

• Complete video of debate, October 2, 2018
• Third party debate, featuring Nick Chen (L), Patrick Starnes (I), and Chris Henry (P), hosted by former Green Party candidate Alex DiBlasi, October 6, 2018
• Complete video of debate, October 9, 2018

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report^[19]		October 26, 2018
The Washington Post^[20]		November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight^[21]		November 5, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report^[22]		November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball^[23]		November 5, 2018
RealClearPolitics^[24]		November 4, 2018
Daily Kos^[25]		November 5, 2018
Fox News^[26]		November 5, 2018
Politico^[27]		November 5, 2018
Governing^[28]		November 5, 2018

Polling

Aggregate polls

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Knute Buehler (R)	Patrick Starnes (IPO)	Other	Undecided
Hoffman Research Group	October 29–30, 2018	694	± 3.7%	align=center	45%	42%	4%	2%^[29]	7%
Emerson College	October 26–28, 2018	747	± 3.7%	align=center	47%	42%	–	7%	4%
DHM Research	October 4–11, 2018	500	± 4.4%	align=center	40%	35%	4%	3%^[30]	17%
Riley Research Associates	September 24 – October 7, 2018	356	± 5.0%	align=center	49%	45%	4%	3%^[31]	–
Clout Research (R)	September 20–23, 2018	679	± 3.8%	align=center	42%	41%	–	–	–
Hoffman Research Group	September 12–13, 2018	680	± 3.8%	align=center	46%	36%	4%	2%	12%
Causeway Solutions (R-No Supermajorities PAC)	September 6–11, 2018	2,831	± 2.0%	41%	align=center	43%	–	–	–
Clout Research (R)	July 30–31, 2018	559	± 4.1%	42%	align=center	43%	–	–	15%
Gravis Marketing	July 16–17, 2018	770	± 3.5%	45%	45%	–	–	10%
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)	March 19–25, 2018	2,067	± 2.2%	41%	align=center	46%	–	–	14%
DHM Research	January 25–31, 2018	604	± 4.0%	align=center	46%	29%	–	–	25%
Zogby Analytics	November 10–12, 2017	508	± 4.4%	align=center	39%	36%	–	–	25%
iCitizen	September 13–28, 2017	645	± 3.9%	align=center	41%	40%	–	11%	8%

with Sam Carpenter

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Sam Carpenter (R)	Other	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)	March 19–25, 2018	2,067	± 2.2%	41%	align=center	46%	–	13%
Zogby Analytics	November 10–12, 2017	508	± 4.4%	align=center	38%	36%	–	26%

with Greg Wooldridge

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Kate Brown (D)	Greg Wooldridge (R)	Other	Undecided
Triton Polling & Research (R-Carpenter)	March 19–25, 2018	2,067	± 2.2%	42%	align=center	47%	–	11%
iCitizen	September 13–28, 2017	645	± 3.9%	align=center	42%	39%	11%	7%

with Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Results

Results by congressional district

Brown carried two out of the state's five congressional districts, losing two swing districts that simultaneously voted for Democrats in the US House, with held by veteran congressman Peter DeFazio and held by former veterinarian Kurt Schrader.

District	Kate Brown	Knute Buehler	Elected Representative
		53.77%	40.51%		Suzanne Bonamici
		35.38%	57.19%		Greg Walden
		69.17%	26.45%		Earl Blumenauer
		44.84%	47.15%		Peter DeFazio
		46.02%	47.97%		Kurt Schrader

County results

County	Kate BrownDemocrat	Votes	Knute BuehlerRepublican	Votes	Patrick StarnesIndependent	Votes	Nick ChenLibertarian	Votes	Aaron AuerConstitution	Votes	Chris HenryProgressive	Votes	Write-in	Votes	Total
Baker	19.0%	1,572	72.9%	6,023	4.2%	347	1.6%	132	1.5%	126	0.6%	49	0.2%	15	8,264
Benton	60.1%	26,592	33.9%	14,990	2.8%	1,225	1.6%	721	0.8%	357	0.7%	293	0.1%	53	44,231
Clackamas	45.5%	91,088	49.2%	98,468	2.4%	4,726	1.4%	2,827	0.9%	1,853	0.5%	941	0.2%	363	200,266
Clatsop	48.0%	8,909	44.7%	8,294	3.3%	616	1.6%	305	1.4%	259	0.8%	140	0.2%	35	18,558
Columbia	38.7%	9,519	52.6%	12,953	4.0%	975	1.9%	480	2.0%	481	0.7%	167	0.2%	42	24,617
Coos	33.5%	9,622	57.5%	16,520	4.4%	1,262	1.8%	505	1.8%	510	0.9%	256	0.2%	52	28,727
Crook	19.8%	2,285	73.8%	8,516	3.6%	418	1.0%	110	1.2%	140	0.4%	42	0.2%	25	11,536
Curry	35.9%	4,141	56.1%	6,474	3.8%	443	1.6%	188	1.7%	199	0.7%	75	0.1%	13	11,533
Deschutes	42.3%	40,676	52.0%	49,983	2.9%	2,764	1.4%	1,353	0.8%	766	0.5%	460	0.1%	97	96,099
Douglas	24.0%	11,824	65.8%	32,413	5.0%	2,481	1.5%	738	2.7%	1,326	0.7%	368	0.2%	88	49,238
Gilliam	22.0%	218	69.6%	691	4.6%	46	1.9%	19	1.4%	14	0.5%	5	0.0%	0	993
Grant	16.8%	649	75.9%	2,923	3.9%	151	1.2%	48	1.5%	56	0.5%	19	0.2%	7	3,853
Harney	16.5%	584	76.7%	2,722	3.6%	126	0.8%	29	1.8%	63	0.6%	20	0.1%	3	3,547
Hood River	59.9%	6,485	35.0%	3,789	2.5%	271	1.3%	136	0.7%	81	0.5%	55	0.1%	11	10,828
Jackson	41.4%	42,207	50.7%	51,623	4.1%	4,196	1.7%	1,720	1.3%	1,313	0.7%	716	0.1%	132	101,907
Jefferson	29.8%	2,635	62.3%	5,518	4.4%	388	1.3%	111	1.6%	145	0.5%	45	0.1%	10	8,852
Josephine	30.2%	12,214	60.5%	24,499	4.3%	1,735	1.9%	767	2.2%	881	0.8%	308	0.2%	66	40,470
Klamath	22.3%	6,301	67.7%	19,134	4.9%	1,371	2.3%	643	2.0%	564	0.7%	198	0.2%	45	28,256
Lake	13.4%	476	78.0%	2,774	4.4%	155	1.5%	52	2.3%	81	0.4%	14	0.1%	5	3,557
Lane	54.7%	96,841	38.2%	67,737	3.2%	5,683	1.8%	3,106	1.2%	2,173	0.8%	1,335	0.2%	297	177,172
Lincoln	52.1%	12,610	40.8%	9,884	3.4%	825	1.6%	391	1.2%	302	0.7%	164	0.2%	43	24,219
Linn	30.1%	16,461	60.5%	33,051	4.2%	2,293	1.9%	1,061	2.2%	1,204	0.8%	421	0.3%	171	54,662
Malheur	24.1%	2,159	66.9%	6,000	4.1%	364	1.7%	156	2.5%	227	0.6%	52	0.1%	12	8,970
Marion	43.5%	55,238	49.9%	63,323	2.8%	3,511	1.7%	2,100	1.4%	1,831	0.5%	650	0.3%	325	126,978
Morrow	22.5%	844	67.5%	2,534	4.3%	163	1.8%	68	3.0%	111	0.8%	29	0.1%	5	3,754
Multnomah	73.9%	279,384	22.1%	83,507	1.7%	6,309	1.2%	4,447	0.5%	1,793	0.6%	2,174	0.1%	484	378,098
Polk	41.6%	15,529	51.8%	19,341	2.9%	1,076	1.6%	589	1.3%	491	0.6%	206	0.2%	83	37,315
Sherman	19.3%	190	74.7%	736	3.5%	34	0.7%	7	1.5%	15	0.2%	2	0.1%	1	985
Tillamook	42.7%	5,616	50.3%	6,606	3.5%	464	1.2%	158	1.5%	202	0.6%	77	0.1%	19	13,142
Umatilla	29.4%	7,085	63.0%	15,178	3.7%	885	1.7%	419	1.6%	393	0.5%	117	0.1%	31	24,108
Union	24.5%	2,877	67.9%	7,983	3.8%	441	1.4%	162	1.8%	209	0.5%	60	0.2%	24	11,756
Wallowa	27.0%	1,088	66.2%	2,668	3.6%	145	1.2%	47	1.5%	61	0.5%	19	0.1%	4	4,032
Wasco	40.5%	4,604	51.4%	5,841	3.8%	427	1.8%	203	1.6%	177	0.7%	85	0.2%	20	11,357
Washington	55.5%	137,886	39.2%	97,286	2.2%	5,535	1.7%	4,229	0.8%	2,010	0.5%	1,161	0.1%	372	248,479
Wheeler	19.3%	158	72.6%	594	4.6%	38	1.8%	15	1.2%	10	0.4%	3	0.0%	0	818
Yamhill	39.1%	17,931	53.3%	24,412	3.3%	1,503	1.9%	885	1.6%	721	0.6%	287	0.2%	81	45,820

External links

• Candidates at Vote Smart
• Candidates at Ballotpedia

Official campaign websites

• Aaron Auer (C) for Governor
• Kate Brown (D) for Governor
• Knute Buehler (R) for Governor
• Alex DiBlasi (G) for Governor
• Patrick Starnes (I) for Governor
• Nick Chen (L) for Governor

Notes and References

1. Web site: Kate Brown wins 2-year term as Oregon governor. KOIN 6 News Staff. KOIN 6 News. November 8, 2016. November 15, 2016.
2. Web site: Kate Brown announces she will seek re-election. The Oregonian. Borrud. Hillary. September 25, 2017. September 26, 2017.
3. Web site: 17 people running for Oregon governor, the most crowded field in two decades. Radnovich, Connor. Statesman Journal. March 7, 2018. March 8, 2018.
4. Web site: Bend's Buehler running for governor. The Bulletin. Warner. Gary A.. August 3, 2017. August 3, 2017.
5. Web site: A pro-Trump alternative in the governor's race?. Achen, Paris. Portland Tribune. August 31, 2017. September 1, 2017.
6. Web site: Bend businessman Sam Carpenter declares bid for governor. KTVZ. October 25, 2017. October 28, 2017.
7. Web site: Bend businessman Sam Carpenter to run for governor. Achen, Paris. East Oregonian. October 25, 2017. October 28, 2017.
8. Web site: Oregon Secretary Of State. secure.sos.state.or.us. 2018-02-18.
9. Web site: Portland political conservative makes late entry into Oregon gubernatorial race. Hubbard, Saul. The Register-Guard. February 3, 2018. February 3, 2018. February 3, 2018. https://web.archive.org/web/20180203004610/http://registerguard.com/rg/news/local/36404983-75/portland-political-conservative-makes-late-entry-into-oregon-gubernatorial-race.html.csp. dead.
10. Web site: GOP gubernatorial candidate drops out of race. Withycombe, Claire. Portland Tribune. April 26, 2018.
11. Web site: First Potential GOP Challenger For Gov. Kate Brown Surfaces. Jaquiss, Nigel. Willamette Week. June 26, 2017. July 9, 2017.
12. Web site: Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer will not run for Oregon governor in 2018. The Oregonian. Borrud. Hillary. October 10, 2017. October 11, 2017.
13. Web site: Social conservatives seek governor's candidate . Achen, Paris . . October 31, 2017 . November 6, 2017.
14. Web site: House Minority Leader Mike McLane Rules Out Run for Governor in 2018. wweek.com. September 6, 2017.
15. Web site: Oregon Elects Kate Brown As Governor. Lehman, Chris. Oregon Public Broadcasting. November 8, 2016. November 15, 2016.
16. Web site: Competitive races abound as GOP plays defense in many open seats . Skelley . Geoffrey . Kondik . Kyle . . April 20, 2017 . May 6, 2017.
17. Web site: Secretary of State Dennis Richardson announces he will not run for governor. The Oregonian. Borrud. Hillary. August 23, 2017. August 24, 2017.
18. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5WFU27n266k Lars Larson Debate – YouTube
19. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings for October 26, 2018. The Cook Political Report. en. 2021-04-10.
20. News: The Washington Post's gubernatorial race ratings. The Washington Post. October 16, 2018.
21. Web site: 2018 Governor Forecast FiveThirtyEight. FiveThirtyEight. 17 October 2018 . en. October 17, 2018.
22. Web site: 2018 Gubernatorial Ratings Inside Elections. insideelections.com. en. 2017-11-15.
23. Web site: Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2018 Governor. www.centerforpolitics.org. en-US. 2017-11-15.
24. Web site: 2018 Governor Races. RealClearPolitics. October 9, 2018.
25. Web site: 2018 Governor Race Ratings. Daily Kos. June 5, 2018.
26. Web site: 2018 Midterm Power Ranking. Fox News.
27. Web site: Politico Race Ratings. Politico.
28. Web site: 2018 Governor Elections: As November Nears, More Governors' Races Become Tossups . www.governing.com . en . 2018-07-18 . October 21, 2018 . https://web.archive.org/web/20181021005343/http://www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-governors-races-july-ratings.html . dead .
29. Aaron Auer (C) and Nick Chen (L) with 1%
30. Nick Chen (L) and Chris Henry (P) with 1%, Aaron Auer (C) with <1%, somebody else with 1%
31. Nick Chen (L) with 2%, Aaron Aauer (C) with 1%