| Election Name: | 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election |
| Country: | Oregon |
| Type: | presidential |
| Ongoing: | No |
| Previous Election: | 2006 Oregon gubernatorial election |
| Previous Year: | 2006 |
| Next Election: | 2014 Oregon gubernatorial election |
| Next Year: | 2014 |
| Election Date: | November 2, 2010 |
| Image1: | File:Governor Kitzhaber (cropped).jpg |
| Nominee1: | John Kitzhaber |
| Party1: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| Alliance1: | Independent Party of Oregon |
| Popular Vote1: | 716,525 |
| Percentage1: | 49.29% |
| Nominee2: | Chris Dudley |
| Party2: | Republican Party (United States) |
| Popular Vote2: | 694,287 |
| Percentage2: | 47.76% |
| Map Size: | 250px |
| Governor | |
| Before Election: | Ted Kulongoski |
| Before Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
| After Election: | John Kitzhaber |
| After Party: | Democratic Party (United States) |
The 2010 Oregon gubernatorial election was held on Tuesday, to elect the Governor of Oregon to a four-year term beginning on . The incumbent governor, Democrat Ted Kulongoski, was ineligible to run due to term limits barring him from being elected to more than two consecutive terms.
The Democratic candidate John Kitzhaber, who had previously served two terms as governor from 1995 to 2003, was elected to a third term, earning a narrow victory over Republican candidate Chris Dudley and two minor party candidates. Kitzhaber's election marked the first time in Oregon's history that a person has been elected to a third term as governor.
Oregon first used its new cross-nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] Kitzhaber was nominated by the Independent Party of Oregon in addition to the Democratic Party.
Almost every opinion poll throughout the election season showed a statistical tie between the two, state Republicans saw this election as the best chance to win the governorship since the last Republican governor, Victor Atiyeh, was re-elected in 1982. Once polls closed on election day, Dudley had led in early vote counts, but Kitzhaber narrowly won due to wide margins in Multnomah and Lane counties.[2] However, this remains the closest Republicans have come to winning the governorship since that election.
| Poll source | Date administered | John Kitzhaber | Bill Bradbury | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall | May 8–10, 2010 | align=center | 53% | 23% | 22% | |
| Survey USA | May 7–9, 2010 | align=center | 59% | 25% | 12% |
| Poll source | Date administered | Chris Dudley | Allen Alley | John Lim | Bill Sizemore | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis, Hibbetts & Midghall | May 8–10, 2010 | align=center | 33% | 23% | 8% | 6% | 24% | |
| Survey USA | May 7–9, 2010 | align=center | 42% | 24% | 8% | 8% | 14% |
Oregon first used its new cross nomination system, a form of fusion voting, in the 2010 general elections. In this system, a candidate for partisan public office can be nominated by up to three political parties.[1] As a result, the Independent Party of Oregon did not file a candidate and instead chose to hold a month-long online primary in July.[3] In doing so, it became the first political party in the United States to conduct a binding statewide primary election entirely over the Internet,[4] and it was the largest nominating process ever held by an Oregon minor political party.[5] Republican Chris Dudley did not apply for the Independent Party nomination by the required date, so he was not on the ballot, but he could be written in.[3]
Following the primaries, the two leading candidates, Dudley and Kitzhaber, campaigned separately throughout the state for the summer. Despite attempts by both campaigns to arrange a debate, the candidates could only agree on a single debate on September 30.[6] Through the end of September, the Dudley campaign had raised $5.6 million, more than twice as much as the Kitzhaber campaign.[7]
Throughout the last few months of the campaign, opinion polls showed a tight race with the lead apparently changing frequently. Due to the closeness of the race, President Barack Obama, for whom Oregon voted by a 16-percent margin in 2008, stumped for Kitzhaber; then headlined a rally at the Oregon Convention Center in Portland on .
| Newspaper | Endorsement | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| The Oregonian (Portland) | John Kitzhaber[8] | ||
| Willamette Week (Portland) | John Kitzhaber[9] | ||
| Portland Tribune | John Kitzhaber[10] | ||
| The Register-Guard (Eugene) | John Kitzhaber[11] | ||
| Statesman Journal (Salem) | Chris Dudley[12] | ||
| Mail Tribune (Medford) | John Kitzhaber[13] | ||
| The Bulletin (Bend) | Chris Dudley[14] | ||
| East Oregonian (Pendleton) | John Kitzhaber[15] | ||
| The Lake Oswego Review | John Kitzhaber[16] | ||
| The News-Review (Roseburg) | John Kitzhaber[17] | ||
| The Outlook (Gresham) | John Kitzhaber[18] | ||
| The Daily Astorian | John Kitzhaber[19] | ||
| Corvallis Gazette-Times | John Kitzhaber[20] | ||
| News-Register (McMinnville) | Chris Dudley[21] | ||
| The Sandy Post | John Kitzhaber[22] | ||
| Beaverton Valley Times | John Kitzhaber[23] | ||
| West Linn Tidings | John Kitzhaber[24] | ||
| Source | Ranking | As of | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[25] | October 14, 2010 | ||
| Rothenberg[26] | October 28, 2010 | ||
| RealClearPolitics[27] | November 1, 2010 | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[28] | October 28, 2010 | ||
| CQ Politics[29] | October 28, 2010 |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Margin of error | John Kitzhaber (D) | Chris Dudley (R) | Other candidate(s) | Undecided | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davis & Hibbitts | October 30–31, 2010 | ± 3.1% | align=center | 46% | 43% | |||
| Survey USA | October 23–28, 2010 | ± 4.2% | align=center | 48% | 41% | 2% | 8% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 25, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 46% | align=center | 49% | 3% | 3% | |
| Hibbitts | October 24–25, 2010 | ± 4.4% | 42% | align=center | 45% | 2% | 12% | |
| Elway Research | October 18–19, 2010 | ± 4.4% | align=center | 45% | 44% | 3% | 5% | |
| Public Policy Polling | October 16–17, 2010 | ± 2.8% | align=center | 48% | 47% | 5% | ||
| Survey USA | October 12–14, 2010 | ± 3.9% | align=center | 46% | 45% | 4% | 5% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 10, 2010 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 48% | 46% | 3% | 4% | |
| Survey USA | September 12–14, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 43% | align=center | 49% | 5% | 3% | |
| Riley Research | August 31 – September 9, 2010 | ± 5.0% | align=center | 40% | 39% | 5% | 16% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 8, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | align=center | 49% | 2% | 5% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 22, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | align=center | 45% | 3% | 8% | |
| Grove Insight | August 18–21, 2010 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 44% | 35% | 4% | 14% | |
| Survey USA | July 25–27, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 44% | align=center | 46% | 7% | 4% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 26, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 44% | align=center | 47% | 5% | 4% | |
| Magellan Strategies | June 28, 2010 | ± 3.2% | 40% | align=center | 41% | 10% | 9% | |
| Davis, Hibbits and Midghall | June 21, 2010 | unk | 41% | 41% | 6% | 12% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | June 17, 2010 | ± 4.5% | 45% | align=center | 47% | 4% | 4% | |
| Survey USA | June 7–9, 2010 | ± 4.2% | 40% | align=center | 47% | 6% | 7% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 20, 2010 | ± 4.5% | 44% | align=center | 45% | 4% | 6% | |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 26, 2010 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 41% | 4% | 4% | ||
| Moore Insight | February 20–21, 2010 | ± 4.0% | align=center | 45% | 33% | 21% | ||
| Rasmussen Reports | February 17, 2010 | ± 4.5% | align=center | 42% | 36% | 7% | 15% |
Dudley won 29 of Oregon's 36 counties. Kitzhaber won seven, including Multnomah County by a 43% margin of victory.
| County | Kitzhaber | Votes | Dudley | Votes | Kord | Votes | Wagner | Votes | Various | Votes | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baker | 26.8% | 1,949 | 68.1% | 4,816 | 2.6% | 187 | 2.3% | 166 | 0.3% | 21 | 7,276 | |
| Benton | 59.4% | 21,498 | 38.0% | 13,767 | 1.1% | 399 | 1.2% | 448 | 0.2% | 77 | 36,189 | |
| Clackamas | 44.3% | 69,250 | 53.4% | 83,516 | 1.1% | 1,686 | 1.0% | 1,547 | 0.2% | 288 | 156,287 | |
| Clatsop | 51.3% | 7,654 | 45.5% | 6,792 | 1.3% | 196 | 1.6% | 166 | 0.2% | 37 | 14,913 | |
| Columbia | 44.4% | 8,973 | 51.0% | 10,302 | 2.4% | 493 | 1.8% | 368 | 0.3% | 54 | 20,190 | |
| Coos | 41.3% | 10,456 | 53.9% | 13,652 | 2.4% | 618 | 2.3% | 583 | 0.1% | 34 | 25,343 | |
| Crook | 26.1% | 2,314 | 70.3% | 6,231 | 1.7% | 152 | 1.6% | 144 | 0.2% | 21 | 8,862 | |
| Curry | 38.8% | 3,986 | 56.0% | 5,761 | 2.7% | 275 | 2.4% | 245 | 0.1% | 14 | 10,281 | |
| Deschutes | 38.1% | 24,289 | 59.1% | 37,706 | 1.3% | 861 | 1.3% | 815 | 0.2% | 112 | 63,783 | |
| Douglas | 32.5% | 14,072 | 63.3% | 27,438 | 2.2% | 952 | 1.9% | 807 | 0.2% | 66 | 43,335 | |
| Gilliam | 32.0% | 308 | 64.4% | 620 | 2.6% | 25 | 0.7% | 7 | 0.2% | 2 | 962 | |
| Grant | 21.6% | 749 | 74.3% | 2,576 | 2.5% | 86 | 1.4% | 50 | 0.2% | 8 | 3,469 | |
| Harney | 23.8% | 800 | 72.3% | 2,436 | 2.3% | 76 | 1.4% | 48 | 0.2% | 8 | 3,368 | |
| Hood River | 56.7% | 4,778 | 40.7% | 3,434 | 1.1% | 95 | 1.2% | 103 | 0.2% | 17 | 8,427 | |
| Jackson | 41.7% | 32,360 | 55.0% | 42,715 | 1.8% | 1,389 | 1.4% | 1,117 | 0.1% | 109 | 77,690 | |
| Jefferson | 32.3% | 2,132 | 64.2% | 4,240 | 1.7% | 110 | 1.7% | 110 | 0.2% | 10 | 6,602 | |
| Josephine | 34.7% | 11,558 | 60.2% | 20,025 | 3.1% | 1,018 | 1.9% | 646 | 0.1% | 43 | 33,290 | |
| Klamath | 25.1% | 5,820 | 70.4% | 16,295 | 2.4% | 560 | 1.8% | 428 | 0.2% | 55 | 23,158 | |
| Lake | 21.0% | 658 | 74.2% | 2,323 | 2.6% | 80 | 2.0% | 64 | 0.3% | 6 | 3,131 | |
| Lane | 57.0% | 81,731 | 40.0% | 57,394 | 1.3% | 1,855 | 1.4% | 2,045 | 0.3% | 488 | 143,513 | |
| Lincoln | 53.0% | 10,484 | 43.2% | 8,540 | 1.8% | 347 | 2.0% | 389 | 0.2% | 31 | 19,791 | |
| Linn | 34.8% | 14,466 | 61.1% | 25,370 | 2.2% | 898 | 1.7% | 708 | 0.3% | 110 | 41,552 | |
| Malheur | 24.4% | 1,884 | 70.4% | 5,440 | 3.2% | 246 | 2.0% | 157 | 0.1% | 5 | 7,732 | |
| Marion | 44.4% | 44,795 | 52.7% | 53,177 | 1.5% | 1,530 | 1.2% | 1,192 | 0.2% | 242 | 100,936 | |
| Morrow | 26.8% | 850 | 68.8% | 2,184 | 2.7% | 87 | 1.5% | 48 | 0.2% | 6 | 3,175 | |
| Multnomah | 70.6% | 198,157 | 27.4% | 76,915 | 0.8% | 2,149 | 1.0% | 2,879 | 0.3% | 750 | 280,850 | |
| Polk | 43.4% | 12,899 | 53.7% | 15,966 | 1.5% | 456 | 1.1% | 336 | 0.2% | 67 | 29,724 | |
| Sherman | 26.3% | 238 | 70.1% | 634 | 1.7% | 15 | 1.9% | 17 | 0.1% | 1 | 905 | |
| Tillamook | 46.0% | 5,072 | 50.8% | 5,604 | 1.5% | 163 | 1.6% | 173 | 0.2% | 19 | 11,031 | |
| Umatilla | 32.1% | 6,321 | 63.8% | 12,574 | 2.2% | 441 | 1.6% | 320 | 0.2% | 47 | 19,703 | |
| Union | 31.6% | 3,366 | 64.5% | 6,869 | 2.1% | 221 | 1.5% | 165 | 0.3% | 31 | 10,652 | |
| Wallowa | 28.6% | 1,088 | 67.9% | 2,581 | 2.1% | 79 | 1.1% | 43 | 0.2% | 9 | 3,800 | |
| Wasco | 43.2% | 4,024 | 53.1% | 4,938 | 1.7% | 161 | 1.7% | 156 | 0.3% | 27 | 9,306 | |
| Washington | 49.6% | 92,811 | 48.1% | 89,926 | 1.1% | 1,977 | 1.1% | 1,983 | 0.2% | 336 | 187,033 | |
| Wheeler | 28.6% | 216 | 66.3% | 500 | 2.9% | 22 | 2.0% | 15 | 0.1% | 1 | 754 | |
| Yamhill | 39.7% | 14,519 | 57.2% | 20,893 | 1.6% | 570 | 1.3% | 492 | 0.2% | 61 | 36,535 |