Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election by constituency explained

Various polling organisations have been conducting opinion polling in specific ridings in the lead up to the 2015 Canadian general election. The results of publicised opinion polling for individual constituencies are detailed in this article.

Opinion polls have been conducted from the months following the previous general election held in May 2011, and have increased in frequency leading up to the general election.

Given the expense of polling individual constituencies, constituencies are usually only polled if they are of some particular interest, e.g. they are thought to be marginal or facing an impending by-election. The constituencies polled are not necessarily representative of a national average swing. Under the first-past-the-post electoral system the true marginal seats, by definition, will be decisive as to the outcome of the election.

A total of 204 polls in 107 ridings across 9 provinces and 1 territory were conducted.

Constituency polls

Alberta

Calgary Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	38	19		39	6	0	±3.72 pp	688	IVR
		HTML		47	11	39	3	0	±4.3 pp	531	IVR
		PDF		44	17	32	7	0	±4.3 pp	517	IVR
2012 By-election		HTML		37	4	33	26	1	±0.0 pp	27,732	Election
2011 Election		HTML		55	15	19	10	0	±0.0 pp	41,452	Election

Calgary Confederation

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	37	19		38	6	0	±3.7 pp	679	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		52	16	18	14	0	±0.0 pp	50,770	Election

Edmonton Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
ThinkHQ		PDF		36	24	33	4	2	±4.3 pp	517	IVR
		PDF	31		38	27	3	0	±3.7 pp	701	IVR
		HTML		40	30	27	4	0	±5.0 pp	524	IVR
		PDF		39	35	22	5	0	±4.2 pp	547	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		46	26	24	4	1	±0.0 pp	43,093	Election

Edmonton Griesbach

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	32		48	15	5	0	±4.3 pp	509	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		53	37	7	3	0	±0.0 pp	37,766	Election

Edmonton Manning

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		45	33	18	4	0	±4.3 pp	512	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		55	27	9	3	6	±0.0 pp	34,180	Election

Edmonton Mill Woods

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		39	15		39	7	0	±3.73 pp	684	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		59	25	12	3	1	±0.0 pp	35,454	Election

Edmonton Riverbend

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		44	34	18	4	0	±4.3 pp	522	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		59	21	15	5	0	±0.0 pp	43,267	Election

Edmonton West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		48	19	29	4	0	±3.9 pp	618	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		64	19	13	4	0	±0.0 pp	43,267	Election

Fort McMurray—Cold Lake

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		45	15	35	5	0	±4.4 pp	494	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		73	13	11	4	0	±0.0 pp	25,650	Election

Lethbridge

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		56	26	13	4	0	±3.81 pp	657	IVR
		PDF		48	34	14	5	0	±3.8 pp	639	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		52	30	9	5	4	±0.0 pp	41,165	Election

St. Albert—Edmonton

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		43	20	7	2	28	±3.74 pp	681	IVR
-			HTML		38	19	10	4	29	±5.0 pp	490	IVR
		PDF		39	20	15	4	22	±3.1 pp	1,030	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		64	20	11	5	0	±0.0 pp	42,842	Election

Yellowhead

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		63	15	15	3	3	±4.1 pp	569	IVR
2014 By-election		HTML		63	10	20	5	3	±0.0 pp	12,601	Election
		PDF		51	13	24	0	13	±6.0 pp	311	IVR
		PDF		62	12	16	0	10	±5.6 pp	360	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		78	13	3	5	1	±0.0 pp	40,013	Election

British Columbia

Burnaby North—Seymour

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		38	26	27	9	0	±3.65 pp	716	IVR
		HTML	33		36	21	9	1	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
		HTML	33		37	21	9	0	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
		PDF	20		46	8	25	1	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
2011 Election		HTML		44	35	16	4	1	±0.0 pp	43,290	Election

Cariboo—Prince George

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	30		36	29	5	0	±4.4 pp	500	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59008.php'''HTML'''		56	30	5	6	2	±0.0 pp	43,239	Election

Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	31		34	29	6	0	±4.4 pp	504	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59008.php'''HTML'''		56	31	8	4	1	±0.0 pp	40,286	Election

Courtenay—Alberni

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	32		34	18	15	1	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
		PDF	30		33	20	16	0	±3.76 pp	672	IVR
		HTML	33		39	13	12	3	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
		PDF	30		42	14	11	3	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59009.php'''HTML'''		45	41	7	7	1	±0.0 pp	54,470	Election

Cowichan—Malahat—Langford

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	28		35	14	19	4	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
		PDF	28		41	15	10	5	±5.6 pp	302	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59009.php'''HTML'''	43		44	6	7	0	±0.0 pp	47,766	Election

Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	19		39	20	21	1	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
		HTML	20		39	19	19	3	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
		PDF	17		50	14	16	4	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59026.php'''HTML'''	37		39	10	13	0	±0.0 pp	56,652	Election

Fleetwood—Port Kells

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		35	24		35	6	0	±3.8 pp	661	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59012.php'''HTML'''		48	33	16	3	0	±0.0 pp	34,582	Election

Kootenay—Columbia

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		37		37	15	11	0	±4.3 pp	529	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59015.php'''HTML'''		50	39	3	6	1	±0.0 pp	52,801	Election

Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	26		35	18	21	1	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
		HTML	24		34	17	24	0	±3.7 pp	699	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59018.php'''HTML'''	40		45	7	7	0	±0.0 pp	55,879	Election

North Island—Powell River

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	27		41	18	14	0	±4.2 pp	556	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59037.php'''HTML'''		46	41	6	5	1	±0.0 pp	50,897	Election

North Okanagan—Shuswap

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	33		37	22	8	0	±3.6 pp	755	IVR
		PDF		45	26	24	5	0	±4.1 pp	567	IVR
Oraclepoll Research		PDF	38		41	12	9	0	±5.5 pp	312	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59020.php'''HTML'''		55	26	7	11	0	±0.0 pp	56,921	Election

North Vancouver

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	33	11		41	15	0	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
		HTML	31	14		41	13	1	±5.6 pp	297	Telephone
		PDF	30	24		31	14	1	±5.6 pp	305	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59021.php'''HTML'''		48	17	30	5	1	±0.0 pp	50,306	Election

Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	35		41	19	6	0	±4.2 pp	543	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59022.php'''HTML'''		55	35	6	5	0	±0.0 pp	38,418	Election

Port Moody—Coquitlam

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	34		41	19	7	0	±4.3 pp	529	IVR
		PDF	27		54	14	5	0	±4.3 pp	511	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59023.php'''HTML'''		46	40	9	4	0	±0.0 pp	43,458	Election

South Okanagan—West Kootenay

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	31		36	23	8	3	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
		HTML	33		42	18	4	3	±5.6 pp	303	Telephone
		PDF	25		55	11	6	2	±5.6 pp	302	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59029.php'''HTML'''	39		45	7	8	1	±0.0 pp	56,652	Election

Vancouver Granville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	28	33		35	4	0	±4.4 pp	505	IVR
		PDF	20	28		44	9	0	±3.8 pp	665	IVR
		HTML	29		36	30	6	0	±4.2 pp	541	IVR
		PDF	30		36	24	10	0	±4.5 pp	482	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59036.php'''HTML'''		35	24	30	9	1	±0.0 pp	43,654	Election

Vancouver South

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	33	19		38	8	1	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
		HTML	27	22		40	8	3	±5.6 pp	303	Telephone
		PDF	24	30		39	4	3	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59040.php'''HTML'''		42	21	34	2	1	±0.0 pp	36,706	Election

West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	32	15		37	16	0	±3.76 pp	673	IVR
		HTML	31	14		42	13	0	±4.9 pp	403	Telephone
		HTML	30	22		34	11	2	±5.6 pp	302	Telephone
		PDF	23	27		30	19	0	±4.1 pp	582	IVR
		PDF	30	26		31	12	1	±5.6 pp	301	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/59040.php'''HTML'''		46	21	24	8	1	±0.0 pp	52,062	Election

Manitoba

Elmwood—Transcona

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39	37	20	4	0	±4.2 pp	552	IVR
		PDF	30		39	25	6	0	±4.3 pp	517	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/46005.php'''HTML'''		47	45	5	3	0	±0.0 pp	34,287	Election

Saint Boniface—Saint Vital

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	33	25		37	5	0	±3.83 pp	651	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/46009.php'''HTML'''		50	16	31	3	0	±0.0 pp	40,418	Election

Winnipeg South Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	31	23		38	8	0	±4.0 pp	597	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/46014.php'''HTML'''		41	18	37	3	1	±0.0 pp	46,619	Election

New Brunswick

Fredericton

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	32	14		43	12	0	±3.4 pp	839	IVR
		PDF	32	20		37	10	0	±4.1 pp	580	IVR
		PDF	29	26		34	12	0	±3.5 pp	799	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/13003.php'''HTML'''		47	24	24	4	1	±0.0 pp	38,772	Election

Saint John—Rothesay

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		36	26	34	4	0	±4.33 pp	510	IVR
		HTML		38	25	33	4	0	±3.7 pp	623	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/46014.php'''HTML'''		50	31	16	3	1	±0.0 pp	35,964	Election

Newfoundland and Labrador

Avalon

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	14	19		43	4	19	±3.74 pp	679	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/10001.php'''HTML'''		37	29	33	1	1	±0.0 pp	35,623	Election

Nova Scotia

Central Nova

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	23	20		50	7	0	±4.1 pp	573	IVR
		HTML		36	26	30	8	0	±3.82 pp	652	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/12002.php'''HTML'''		55	27	14	4	0	±0.0 pp	38,878	Election

Cumberland—Colchester

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	32	7		54	6	0	±3.9 pp	617	IVR
		HTML	33	12		48	7	0	±3.79 pp	660	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/12002.php'''HTML'''		53	22	18	5	1	±0.0 pp	38,878	Election

Ontario

Ajax

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39	20	37	4	0	±3.7 pp	690	IVR
		PDF	35	17		46	2	0	±4.0 pp	425	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35001.php'''HTML'''		44	15	38	3	0	±0.0 pp	44,166	Election

Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		HTML	30		45	20	5	0	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35002.php'''HTML'''	33		50	14	3	0	±0.0 pp	39,174	Election

Brampton Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	40	14		41	5	0	±3.8 pp	653	IVR
		PDF		39	25	32	4	0	±5.0 pp	456	IVR
		PDF		40	24	30	6	0	±3.99 pp	598	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		46	23	25	4	1	±0.0 pp	34,796	Election

Brampton East

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	35	24		36	5	0	±3.73pp	684	IVR
		PDF	23		38	36	3	0	±3.98 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML	29		38	31	2	1	±0.0 pp	28,625	Election

Brampton North

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	37	16		46	1	0	±3.7 pp	689	IVR
		PDF		39	24	34	2	0	±5.0 pp	336	IVR
		PDF		42	20	33	5	0	±3.99 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		49	19	28	4	0	±0.0 pp	39,812	Election

Brampton South

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		40	18	39	3	0	±3.99 pp	599	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		45	16	35	2	1	±0.0 pp	35,560	Election

Brampton West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		40	19	38	2	0	±3.99 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		42	20	36	2	1	±0.0 pp	28,505	Election

Brantford—Brant

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		39	30	25	6	0	±3.9 pp	622	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		48	29	19	3	1	±0.0 pp	55,085	Election

Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		41	16	40	4	0	±3.2 pp	966	IVR
		HTML		43	20	29	9	0	±3.1 pp	1,022	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		56	18	16	10	1	±0.0 pp	51,054	Election

Cambridge

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		43	17	34	6	0	±4.2 pp	552	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		53	28	15	4	1	±0.0 pp	44,827	Election

Chatham-Kent—Leamington

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		45	23	27	4	0	±3.88pp	625	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35017.php'''HTML'''		53	27	16	3	0	±0.0 pp	46,376	Election

Don Valley West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	35	13		47	4	0	±3.72pp	688	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35115.php'''HTML'''		44	11	41	4	0	±0.0 pp	38,984	Election

Eglinton—Lawrence

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	39	14		44	3	0	±3.4 pp	823	IVR
		PDF	38	17		44	2	0	±4.0 pp	634	IVR
		HTML	35	24		37	4	0	±4.1 pp	565	IVR
		PDF		36	25	35	4	0	±4.0 pp	588	IVR
		HTML		41	20	34	5	1	±4.0 pp	709	IVR
		HTML		49	13	28	7	0	±4.0 pp	659	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35024.php'''HTML'''		47	12	38	3	0	±0.0 pp	48,389	Election

Essex

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		38	37	22	4	0	±3.8 pp	655	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		48	35	14	2	0	±0.0 pp	50,219	Election

Etobicoke Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	42	11		43	3	1	±3 pp	885	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35027.php'''HTML'''		42	15	41	3	0	±0.0 pp	49,685	Election

Etobicoke—Lakeshore

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	36	16		43	4	0	±3.8 pp	665	IVR
		HTML	38	19		40	3	0	±4.2 pp	537	IVR
		PDF	33	22		41	4	0	±3 pp	835	IVR
		PDF	31	28		36	5	0	±4.2 pp	544	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35028.php'''HTML'''		40	20	35	4	0	±0.0 pp	50,920	Election

Flamborough—Glanbrook

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		48	14	28	9	0	±3.80 pp	659	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35115.php'''HTML'''		55	23	17	4	1	±0.0 pp	45,387	Election

Guelph

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	25	18		45	12	0	±4.0 pp	601	IVR
		HTML	28		38	27	7	0	±4.0 pp	597	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35032.php'''HTML'''	33	17		43	6	1	±0.0 pp	59,218	Election

Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	27	16		50	7	0	±3.76 pp	672	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35115.php'''HTML'''		42	28	25	4	1	±0.0 pp	53,119	Election

Kanata—Carleton

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	39	8		50	3	0	±3.4 pp	861	IVR
		HTML		45	8	43	4	0	±3.89 pp	630	IVR
		HTML		44	13	37	5	0	±4.1 pp	562	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		54	15	26	5	0	±0.0 pp	50,802	Election

Kenora

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		40	29	28	4	0	±3.8 pp	647	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		47	28	22	3	1	±0.0 pp	24,586	Election
-

Kingston and the Islands

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	23		37	36	5	0	±4.0 pp	563	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35044.php'''HTML'''	34	22		40	4	0	±0.0 pp	56,663	Election

Kitchener Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	28	22		46	4	0	±3.4 pp	856	IVR
		HTML	31	30		33	7	0	±3.8 pp	672	IVR
		PDF	29		33	31	7	0	±3.9 pp	625	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35045.php'''HTML'''		40	22	32	5	1	±0.0 pp	46,998	Election

London North Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	32	15		48	5	0	±3.8 pp	668	IVR
		HTML		35	25		35	5	0	±4.2 pp	540	IVR
		PDF	32	27		34	6	0	±3.7 pp	700	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35052.php'''HTML'''		37	24	34	4	0	±0.0 pp	53,445	Election

London West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	33	19		42	6	0	±3.75 pp	678	IVR
		HTML		38	20	37	5	0	±2.9 pp	1,132	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35053.php'''HTML'''		45	25	27	3	0	±0.0 pp	58,342	Election

Markham—Stouffville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	40	6		51	2	0	±5.0 pp	439	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35054.php'''HTML'''		50	17	29	3	1	±0.0 pp	47,183	Election

Mississauga Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	35	16		44	5	0	±5.0 pp	308	IVR
		PDF	36	20		41	3	0	±3.99 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		42	19	37	2	0	±0.0 pp	42,677	Election

Mississauga East—Cooksville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	37	19		41	3	0	±3.99 pp	601	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		44	18	36	2	0	±0.0 pp	44,249	Election

Mississauga—Erin Mills

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		41	16	39	4	0	±3.99 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		47	16	34	3	0	±0.0 pp	46,468	Election

Mississauga—Lakeshore

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	41	12		44	3	0	±4.0 pp	538	IVR
		PDF	32	24		42	3	0	±3.99 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		47	13	37	0	0	±0.0 pp	51,746	Election

Mississauga—Malton

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	29	20		44	5	2	±5.0 pp	335	IVR
		PDF		41	14		41	4	0	±3.99 pp	600	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		38	23	37	2	0	±0.0 pp	36,632	Election

Mississauga—Streetsville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		40	16		40	5	0	±3.99 pp	599	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		46	15	35	4	0	±0.0 pp	46,236	Election

Nepean

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	40	10		47	4	0	±3.2 pp	1,032	IVR
		HTML	41	13		42	4	0	±3.81 pp	655	IVR
		HTML		40	19	34	8	0	±4.1 pp	569	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		51	18	27	4	0	±0.0 pp	51,130	Election

Niagara Falls

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		42	27	25	6	0	±4.2 pp	557	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		53	23	19	4	0	±0.0 pp	53,980	Election

Nickel Belt

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		HTML	14		46	35	5	0	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35069.php'''HTML'''	28		55	14	3	0	±0.0 pp	44,148	Election

Nipissing—Timiskaming

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		HTML	31	16		47	6	0	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35070.php'''HTML'''	36	21		37	6	0	±0.0 pp	39,174	Election

Oakville North—Burlington

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	42	8		45	3	2	±4.0 pp	530	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35073.php'''HTML'''		54	16	27	3	0	±0.0 pp	46,840	Election

Orléans

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	33	19		40	8	0	±3.8pp	660	IVR
		HTML	36	11		51	3	0	±4.1 pp	567	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		45	14	38	3	0	±0.0 pp	64,007	Election

Ottawa Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	22		42	30	6	0	±3.79 pp	685	IVR
2011 Election		HTML	22		52	20	5	1	±0.0 pp	64,689	Election

Ottawa West—Nepean

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	29	20		47	4	0	±3.72 pp	661	IVR
		PDF	35	15		46	0	4	±3.0pp	1,083	IVR
		HTML	35	20		39	5	0	±3.6 pp	747	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		45	20	31	4	0	±0.0 pp	56,602	Election

Perth Wellington

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		36	21	35	8	0	±3.8 pp	652	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		54	21	18	5	2	±0.0 pp	46,401	Election

Peterborough—Kawartha

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	34	17		46	3	0	±3.4 pp	859	IVR
		PDF	34	24		37	4	1	±3.0 pp	1294	IVR
		HTML	29	27		41	4	0	±5.7 pp	300	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35073.php'''HTML'''		50	25	21	4	0	±0.0 pp	57,384	Election

Sault Ste. Marie

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		HTML		36	23	35	6	0	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
		HTML	31	30		34	6	0	±3.9 pp	632	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35092.php'''HTML'''		40	37	20	2	0	±0.0 pp	40,390	Election

Scarborough Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF	36	19		43	2	0	±5.0 pp	458	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35094.php'''HTML'''		35	30	32	3	0	±0.0 pp	36,811	Election

Scarborough Southwest

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	21	37		40	3	0	±3.83pp	654	IVR
		PDF	27	32		35	5	1	±4.0 pp	608	IVR
		HTML	20	34		42	3	1	±4.0 pp	587	IVR
		PDF	27	29		39	4	1	±4.0 pp	557	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35098.php'''HTML'''	32		35	29	4	0	±0.0 pp	39,379	Election

Spadina—Fort York

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	17		42	37	5	0	±5.0 pp	461	IVR
		HTML	13		45	39	3	0	±3.72 pp	671	IVR
		PDF	10		57	28	4	1	±5.0 pp	345	IVR
		HTML	14		44	36	6	0	±3.87 pp	606	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35101.php'''HTML'''	21		50	24	4	1	±0.0 pp	36,969	Election

Sudbury

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		HTML	27		38	31	4	0	±4.9 pp	400	Telephone
		HTML	22	29		46	3	0	±3.98 pp	602	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35103.php'''HTML'''	28		50	18	3	1	±0.0 pp	45,441	Election

Timmins-James Bay

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Oraclepoll Research		HTML	11		62	21	5	0	±5.6 pp	300	Telephone
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35107.php'''HTML'''	32		50	16	2	0	±0.0 pp	33,706	Election

Toronto Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	17	37		42	4	0	±4.0 pp	597	IVR
		PDF	14		41	40	4	1	±4.0 pp	488	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35108.php'''HTML'''	17	36		40	5	1	±0.0 pp	37,350	Election

University—Rosedale

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	20		39	38	3	0	±4.0 pp	604	IVR
		HTML	15		43	39	3	0	±3.84pp	644	IVR
		PDF	17		46	32	5	0	±4.0 pp	528	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35110.php'''HTML'''	20		44	31	5	1	±0.0 pp	46,665	Election

Waterloo

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	31	26		39	3	0	±3.8 pp	658	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		41	15	38	5	0	±0.0 pp	53,632	Election

Willowdale

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	36	15		45	5	0	±4.2 pp	535	IVR
		PDF	32	26		37	5	0	±4.3 pp	508	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35115.php'''HTML'''		41	19	39	0	0	±0.0 pp	38,984	Election

Windsor West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	21		39	37	3	0	±3.97pp	581	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35117.php'''HTML'''	32		54	11	3	0	±0.0 pp	39,745	Election

York Centre

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		PDF		40	17	39	3	2	±5.0 pp	387	IVR
2011 Election		HTML		49	16	33	2	0	±0.0 pp	35,546	Election

Quebec

Ahuntsic-Cartierville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	13		37	34	13	3	0	±3.7 pp	698	IVR
		PDF	6	13		45	31	4	0	±3.8 pp	661	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24003.php'''HTML'''	9	30		31	28	1	1	±0.0 pp	48,602	Election

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Segma Research		HTML	19.7		33.1	22.3	22.1	2.8
Segma Research		HTML	17.0		41.2	18.9	17.8	5.1
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24039.php'''HTML'''	25.6		37.7	5.8	28.9	1.5	0.7	±0.0 pp	43,094	Election

Jonquière

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Segma Research		HTML	20.3		33.0	23.8	19.2	2.9	0.8
Segma Research		HTML	20.1		37.1	18.0	20.0	4.8
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24039.php'''HTML'''	34		43	3	19	1	0	±0.0 pp	46,657	Election

Lac-Saint-Jean

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Segma Research		HTML		34.6	29.6	15.8	17.2	2.9	0
Segma Research		HTML		34.7	29.4	10.6	20.6	4.7	0
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24035.php'''HTML'''		42	32	3	21	1	0	±0.0 pp	54,920	Election

Laurier—Sainte-Marie

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	2		57	15	20	4	2	±5.0 pp	377	Telephone
		PDF	6	32	26		36	1	0	±3.82 pp	653	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24039.php'''HTML'''	4		46	11	35	3	1	±0.0 pp	51,102	Election

Montarville

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
Solutions Logik		HTML	9	28	14		46	3	0
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24049.php'''HTML'''	10		45	13	29	2	2	±0.0 pp	52,165	Election

Mount Royal

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	27	16		50	7	2	0	±3.76 pp	672	IVR
		PDF	16	15		56	7	6	0	±3.93 pp	618	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24052.php'''HTML'''	36	18		41	3	2	0	±0.0 pp	39,007	Election

Notre-Dame-de-Grâce—Westmount

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	10	33		40	7	10	0		665	IVR
		PDF	13	22		52	10	3	0	±3.9 pp	626	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24053.php'''HTML'''	18	35		38	4	4	1	±0.0 pp	44,642	Election

Papineau

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	11	36		41	12	0	0	±3.49 pp	783	IVR
		HTML	5		46	35	10	4	0	±5.06 pp	375	Telephone
		PDF	5	14		61	20	0	0	±4.13 pp	560	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24055.php'''HTML'''	5	29		38	25	2	1	±0.0 pp	45,887	Election

Pontiac

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	19		36	34	8	3	0	±3.74 pp	673	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24057.php'''HTML'''	26		47	15	10	2	0	±0.0 pp	35,508	Election

Richmond—Arthabaska

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	BQ	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		46	35	7	10	2	0	±3.77 pp	668	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/24055.php'''HTML'''	25	32	7		34	2	0	±0.0 pp	53,303	Election

Saskatchewan

Regina—Lewvan

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		40	34	21	5	0	±3.85 pp	639	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/47007.php'''HTML'''	44		45	8	3	0	±0.0 pp	38,508	Election

Saskatoon—University

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML		37		37	22	4	0	±3.4 pp	853	IVR
		PDF	34		41	22	4	0	±3.7 pp	691	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/47011.php'''HTML'''		49	38	10	3	1	±0.0 pp	35,122	Election

Saskatoon West

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	31		36	25	9	0	±3.83 pp	658	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/47012.php'''HTML'''	43		51	4	3	0	±0.0 pp	30,459	Election

Yukon

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Cons.	NDP	Liberal	Green	Other	Margin of Error	Sample Size	class=unsortable	Polling Method
		HTML	27	29		39	4	0	±4.4 pp	497	IVR
2011 Election		http://www.electionprediction.org/2015_fed/riding/35115.php'''HTML'''		34	14	33	19	0	±0.0 pp	16,057	Election

Notes

Notes

In cases when linked poll details distinguish between the margin of error associated with the total sample of respondents (including undecided and non-voters) and that of the subsample of decided/leaning voters, the latter is included in the table. Also not included is the margin of error created by rounding to the nearest whole number or any margin of error from methodological sources. Most online polls—because of their opt-in method of recruiting panellists which results in a non-random sample—cannot have a margin of error.^[1] In such cases, shown is what the margin of error would be for a survey using a random probability-based sample of equivalent size.^[2]

Refers to the total sample size, including undecided and non-voters.

"Telephone" refers to traditional telephone polls conducted by live interviewers; "IVR" refers to automated Interactive Voice Response polls conducted by telephone; "online" refers to polls conducted exclusively over the internet; "telephone/online" refers to polls which combine results from both telephone and online surveys, or for which respondents are initially recruited by telephone and then asked to complete an online survey.

Election Results shown for 2011 are the redistributed results for the 2015 districts. These are fixed until 2023 under the present federal electoral system. About 80% of the 308 districts defined in 2003 changed their borders or are entirely new: 338 districts were defined in 2015.

Notes and References

News: MRIA Responds to "Evaluating the Polls: An Open Letter to Ontario's Journalists" . Marketing Research and Intelligence Association . September 16, 2011 . October 6, 2012.
American Association for Public Opinion Research (undated), Best Practices for Survey and Public Opinion Research, retrieved October 17, 2012